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Joe Biden beats Donald Trump, officially making Trump a one-term twice impeached, twice popular-vote losing president


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3 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Holy guacamole, Trump is going to rage if he sees this ad in DC:

 

 

 

Apparently his campaign spends hundreds of thousands of dollars getting Trump campaign ads onto the DC channels, despite DC being a total waste for Republicans to spend on campaign ads, just so he'll see them. 

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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-latest-swing-state-polls-look-good-for-biden/

 

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Some stuff I quite like seeing. It's mostly good news for Biden, but there are some trade offs (ex: I like seeing Ohio and Iowa much closer in the polls, and Pennsylvania is still quite close, and not all polls in Michigan/Wisconsin are +6/+7). Colorado and Virginia have historically been swing states and were not runaway winners for Hillary, but Biden is averaging over 50% easily in both.

 

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In Michigan, the most notable result comes from long-time Michigan pollster EPIC/MRA, which found Biden up by 12 points in a poll conducted between late May and early June, 53 percent to 41 percent. For context, in 2016 the pollster never found Hillary Clinton with more than 47 percent in a single general election poll. However, in Wisconsin, Biden’s lead might not be that secure. The Marquette Law School Poll — often seen as the gold standard in the Badger State — had Biden up only 3 points in early May, 46 percent to 43 percent. Biden and Trump also ran about even in Pennsylvania, another pivotal state in 2016, which might seem at odds with the data from Michigan and Wisconsin. But unlike those states, Pennsylvania didn’t have any surveys from highly rated pollsters, and what they found was a bit noisy — two put Trump up by 4 to 5 points, while another put Biden ahead by 9 points. We wouldn’t read too much into this yet without higher quality polling, but the inconsistent results here could be evidence that Pennsylvania will remain competitive.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

So that means I don't have to vote this year, right? Since it'll be a landslide regardless?


Complacency that “Biden/The Dems have it” is my biggest fear with this upcoming election... I mean, my biggest fear besides the shitbag getting a second term.

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1 hour ago, PaladinSolo said:

That feeling when Trump is so bad hes made dems competitive in.... Arkansas.  Somehow Cotton doesn't have an opponent, lol.  I mean its probably just a bad poll outlier but still.

 

 

Dscc not even getting an opponent is pathetic. Surely there's a state senator willing to have a go.

 

There is an independent running but he's straight up batshit insane.

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16 hours ago, Spork3245 said:


Complacency that “Biden/The Dems have it” is my biggest fear with this upcoming election... I mean, my biggest fear besides the shitbag getting a second term.

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At this time four years ago, Hillary Clinton was leading Trump by 10 points in a Reuters poll, by 7 points in a Monmouth University poll, and by 4 points in a CNN poll. In Wisconsin, she was leading by 8 points in a Public Policy Polling survey. Then the bombshell of misogynist comments by Trump in the Access Hollywood tapes hit. Right after this, Clinton was up 11 points nationwide, 12 points in Michigan, 7 points in Wisconsin, and 5 points in Florida.

Don’t worry, it’s in the bag.  

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After 2016, I am genuinely surprised anyone could be so oblivious and/or dense as to think Biden's numbers are a lock.

 

Even with how much the world is imploding, between the incumbant advantage, the Trump cult, and his bag of dirty tricks that is no where near exhausted I would still consider Trump a slight favorite even barring a disasterous gaff from Biden(which is a distinct possibility).

 

I mean, hell, Barr hasn't even indicted Joe yet....

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16 minutes ago, Chairslinger said:

After 2016, I am genuinely surprised anyone could be so oblivious and/or dense as to think Biden's numbers are a lock.

 

Even with how much the world is imploding, between the incumbant advantage, the Trump cult, and his bag of dirty tricks that is no where near exhausted I would still consider Trump a slight favorite even barring a disasterous gaff from Biden(which is a distinct possibility).

 

I mean, hell, Barr hasn't even indicted Joe yet....

Incumbent advantage is only a thing if people like you, presidential approval ratings lay this out pretty clearly.  Its really hard to stay in office if your approval of you being in office is -13.5.  Biden is also the preferred candidate for people who dislike both, Clinton never had that.

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