Joe Biden beats Donald Trump, officially making Trump a one-term twice impeached, twice popular-vote losing president

[Firewithin]

21 minutes ago, Uaarkson said:

All Biden needs to is shut the fuck up until he’s physically sitting in the Oval Office.  

 

and if the gop control anything still they will impeach him for getting a name wrong 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

18 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

Incumbent advantage is only a thing if people like you, presidential approval ratings lay this out pretty clearly.  Its really hard to stay in office if your approval of you being in office is -13.5.  Biden is also the preferred candidate for people who dislike both, Clinton never had that.

There's way too much overcorrection from 2016

[Joe]

People misunderstand what happened in 2016 so tremendously.

[Jason]

3 minutes ago, Jose said:

People misunderstand what happened in 2016 so tremendously.

 

The actual problem being that her campaign insisted on ignoring Bill's advice?

[Joe]

1 minute ago, Jason said:

 

The actual problem being that her campaign insisted on ignoring Bill's advice?

 

I'm talking about in relation to polling. Hillary never had this massive lead.

[skillzdadirecta]

50 minutes ago, Chairslinger said:

After 2016, I am genuinely surprised anyone could be so oblivious and/or dense as to think Biden's numbers are a lock.

 

Even with how much the world is imploding, between the incumbant advantage, the Trump cult, and his bag of dirty tricks that is no where near exhausted I would still consider Trump a slight favorite even barring a disasterous gaff from Biden(which is a distinct possibility).

 

I mean, hell, Barr hasn't even indicted Joe yet....

 

Also Nixon was elected in '68 amidst all of the socially turbulent shit that was going on then that mirrors what's going on now. Suburban White people were terrified and Nixon reassured them with all of his "law and order" shit... the same play Trump is attempting now. I consider the election Biden's to lose at this point, but I am nowhere NEAR as confident as those numbers would suggest especially five months out. Also, I've learned to never underestimate the power of fear over American White people. Also Georgia should be a prime example of what the G.O.P. wants the Presidential election to look like. 

 

19 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

There's way too much overcorrection from 2016

I don't see how anyone who has endured the last four years could even think about saying there's an "Over correction to 2016"... I mean DONALD TRUMP IS THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNTIED STATES. That was a Simpson's joke until four years ago. We haven't reacted ENOUGH in my opinion and his approval numbers are still too high considering he's a blathering idiot.

[Jason]

9 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

 

Also Nixon was elected in '68 amidst all of the socially turbulent shit that was going on then that mirrors what's going on now. Suburban White people were terrified and Nixon reassured them with all of his "law and order" shit... the same play Trump is attempting now. I consider the election Biden's to lose at this point, but I am nowhere NEAR as confident as those numbers would suggest especially five months out. Also, I've learned to never underestimate the power of fear over American White people. Also Georgia should be a prime example of what the G.O.P. wants the Presidential election to look like. 

 

Nixon was running on law and order as the outsider though, not as the incumbent presiding over the chaos.

[skillzdadirecta]

1 minute ago, Jason said:

 

Nixon was running on law and order as the outsider though, not as the incumbent presiding over the chaos.

Sure...  and Trump's whole Presidency has him portraying himself as "The outsider" even though he isn't. Let's not forget that what, a month ago his approval numbers were damn near at their highest. Why? I have no idea. I can easily see something happening in the next five months to swing shit back in his favor regardless of whether or not he deserves it. Why you guys are placing so much faith in the American electorate is beyond me but whatever... maybe you guys know something I don't know. Right now as of today? I'd say the odds are 51/49 in Biden's favor.... and that's WITH all of the bullshit going on. 

[Joe]

16 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

 

I don't see how anyone who has endured the last four years could even think about saying there's an "Over correction to 2016"... I mean DONALD TRUMP IS THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNTIED STATES. That was a Simpson's joke until four years ago. We haven't reacted ENOUGH in my opinion and his approval numbers are still too high considering he's a blathering idiot.

 

I totally get that, but his stupidity is also the reason why everyone overlooked glaring signs that he was a formidable candidate in 2016. That obviously won't happen in 2020.

[mclumber1]

5 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

Nixon was running on law and order as the outsider though, not as the incumbent presiding over the chaos.

 

That's probably an important point.  Regardless if Humphrey was against the Vietnam war, there was a Democrat in the office at that time who was orchestrating the conflict.  

 

It also doesn't help that Wallace probably captured a large number of racist Democrats that year, effectively shrinking the chances of Humphrey winning the election.

 

That was actually a pretty interesting election in 1968!

[PaladinSolo]

Like people are going to line up just to vote against him, incumbent elections are more than not referendums on them than who their opponent is, and explains why Biden is outrunning his approval.

[skillzdadirecta]

3 minutes ago, Jose said:

 

I totally get that, but his stupidity is also the reason why everyone overlooked glaring signs that he was a formidable candidate in 2016. That obviously won't happen in 2020.

 

1 minute ago, PaladinSolo said:

Like people are going to line up just to vote against him, incumbent elections are more than not referendums on them than who their opponent is, and explains why Biden is outrunning his approval.

Please forgive me if I don't share you guys' optimism 

[Joe]

Just now, skillzdadirecta said:

 

Please forgive me if I don't share you guys' optimism 

 

I'm not even optimistic. I'm being a realist. Obviously these polls can change, but I have not seen a candidate with a lead like this in my lifetime.

[skillzdadirecta]

3 minutes ago, Jose said:

 

I'm not even optimistic. I'm being a realist. Obviously these polls can change, but I have not seen a candidate with a lead like this in my lifetime.

Ok... hope you're right 

[ort]

I can't tell you how happy I will be if Trump loses in just the most spectacular way imaginable. I want him to get destroyed.

 

Like, I wanna see Reagan/Mondale numbers. I wanna see shut the fuck up numbers.

 

I don't think it's gonna happen, but I'm hoping it does.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

1 hour ago, skillzdadirecta said:

don't see how anyone who has endured the last four years could even think about saying there's an "Over correction to 2016"... I mean DONALD TRUMP IS THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNTIED STATES. That was a Simpson's joke until four years ago. We haven't reacted ENOUGH in my opinion and his approval numbers are still too high considering he's a blathering idiot.

Overcorrection to the polling. Biden's never been behind, he's hardly ever been tied, even in the midst of the democratic primary, and even in swing state polls.  This is constant since like October, and trumps position has only gotten worse. 

 

If this overcorrection keeps marginal voters going to the polls I won't complain though

[Jason]

1 hour ago, skillzdadirecta said:

Please forgive me if I don't share you guys' optimism 

 

I'm cautiously more optimistic about this one because Biden is already hitting above 50% on some of these polls, which leaves a lot less space for the "undecided" voters who actually just don't want to admit to a pollster that they're voting for Trump to wind up mattering. Whereas Hillary's polling was always consistent with what up being her popular vote margin, and when you're under 50% that "undecided" vote starts to matter a lot.

[SaysWho?]

Here's an interesting observation about Virginia:

 

 

You know what looks like it did it? Riggleman officiated a gay wedding.

[Jason]

8 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

Here's an interesting observation about Virginia:

 

 

You know what looks like it did it? Riggleman officiated a gay wedding.

 

When I first found out about the wedding he officiated, I was surprised to see that I've actually met one of the people he married. Had him in my building up on the roof patio for at least one game of Diplomacy back when I lived in DC.

[SaysWho?]

19 hours ago, Jason said:

 

So that means I don't have to vote this year, right? Since it'll be a landslide regardless?

 

You gon' write in Ron Paul and like it

 

3 hours ago, Chairslinger said:

After 2016, I am genuinely surprised anyone could be so oblivious and/or dense as to think Biden's numbers are a lock.

 

Even with how much the world is imploding, between the incumbant advantage, the Trump cult, and his bag of dirty tricks that is no where near exhausted I would still consider Trump a slight favorite even barring a disasterous gaff from Biden(which is a distinct possibility).

 

I mean, hell, Barr hasn't even indicted Joe yet....

 

I think those responding to you saying there's a huge overreaction to 2016 have a good point. There really has been a misunderstanding about 2016.

 

I think you've got the right idea, though. I think a lot of you have the right idea in different ways. This is how I see 2016:

 

1. There's totally an incumbent advantage even with bad approval ratings. There wasn't a united Republican front to spread Trump's message in 2016; people were jumping ship a month prior to the election. The fundraising is united behind him, the party is united behind him, and he's a known quantity. That can work against him, but conservatives who held their nose in 2016 can now point to judges and a big and terrible corporate tax cut bill as reasons to vote for him.

2. No matter how nuts the cult is, no party has a majority in the electorate. Independents aren't really jumping on the Trump train right now with 110k dead, stimulus checks not coming to people, and a broken Republican unemployment website in Florida. He vowed that the chaos would end with him and it's more chaotic than any point in the past decade, far as I can see.

3. Trump hasn't gone scorched earth yet as he did Hillary. After the first debate, the mothafucka straight up said she should be in jail:

 

 

Last year when they were going after Hunter Biden, Trump said Biden was "stone cold crooked." So when we see how that does and what crazy rumors he spreads about his opposition that may suddenly seem true and make the media obsesses over it like Hillary's pneumonia, it'll be easier to understand.

4. Biden is doing better in the polls than Hillary, and it's important what the reasons are. She was leading Trump a lot, but many of those leads had her at 44% or 45%, which means independents going to Trump (which is exactly what happened) could push him past the finish line.

 

It's a different dynamic. I'm still convinced that Trump is a strong opponent despite being a mentally deteriorating buffoon.

[Joe]

No one said that Biden is a lock. That is a silly strawman argument.

[ort]

He's 100% not a lock. The way the news cycles go these days the election may as well be a million years away.

 

Who knows what the fuck is gonna happen between now and then.

[CitizenVectron]

He's not a lock, but he's definitely the favourite over Trump.

[Jason]

10 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

He's not a lock, but he's definitely the favourite over Trump.

 

And, importantly, a way stronger favorite than Hillary ever was.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

2 hours ago, SaysWho? said:

Here's an interesting observation about Virginia:

 

 

You know what looks like it did it? Riggleman officiated a gay wedding.

The Virginia GOP could absolutely dominate the state if they moderated the social/Confederate bullshit instead of doubling down, like in Maryland

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

So are we getting a congressional/ other offices out is it all going in here?

 

 

Also lol

[Anathema-]

"Don't count out Susan Collins yet, she's one point up in an internal poll from two months ago!"

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

48 minutes ago, Anathema- said:

"Don't count out Susan Collins yet, she's one point up in an internal poll from two months ago!"

It's hilarious that the internal poll only has her up one and that they're just now releasing it. Things must be going poorly up there now

[Anathema-]

I'm sure the numbers only got worse. In April they thought that poll would make her look bad; today it's so bad this is the only thing that could make her look good.

[PaladinSolo]

I mean Ernst is losing in public polls, that's like air raid siren warning level for the GOP, but they just keep barreling toward their demise. 

[thewhyteboar]

27 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

I mean Ernst is losing in public polls, that's like air raid siren warning level for the GOP, but they just keep barreling toward their demise. 

They trust their vote suppression tactics. 

[SaysWho?]

13 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

The Virginia GOP could absolutely dominate the state if they moderated the social/Confederate bullshit instead of doubling down, like in Maryland

 

I don't even think they'd dominate if they did that. Maybe they'd do better? But Virginia has been trending for Democrats since 2006.

15 hours ago, Jose said:

No one said that Biden is a lock. That is a silly strawman argument.

 

Hey, I never said y'all said that! Unless you're just talking to Chair, but I was just saying I appreciated some of the points he was making.

 

8 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

So are we getting a congressional/ other offices out is it all going in here?

 

 

Also lol

 

I almost think there should be a separate congressional/governors thread. I could try to make a good OP for it if y'all want; I think it would help.

[Joe]

It was on response to Chair. I re-read his post and it was even more absurd the second time. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

If the VA GOP ran a clone of Larry Hogan, they'd handily win the governorship at the very least, with even NoVA swinging that way.

[SaysWho?]

Yeah but the governor's mansion is a different beast. It hasn't helped in Maryland statewide. It's telling that Republicans could win with a walking dildo in Virginia in 2000 but now have to run a moderate Democrat to sweep.