Joe Biden beats Donald Trump, officially making Trump a one-term twice impeached, twice popular-vote losing president

[Spork3245]

 

[Jason]

[Firewithin]

 

[legend]

4 hours ago, sblfilms said:

 

The onus is on you to show the policies that lead to 1) all paths ending with Trump, and 2) paths forward with Biden. What is actually able to be accomplished under each administration in the next four years that fundamentally changes course for the world. You have shown no such thing, only declaring it so.

 

I have no idea how to measure the actual impact odds, but I will say that Trump's efforts to suppress the science from federal agencies (more recently CDC, but more relevantly to this topic, the EPA, etc.) seems like it could have long lasting negative impacts if we let him go even further with it with another term. I'd be more specific but one of the problems with Trump is that because he make's a controversy every week, it's hard to remember the specifics of something he did to fuck the country that happened longer than a month ago.

[SuperSpreader]

Breaking News!!!!

 

My dogs keep farting in my office. 🤢

[SaysWho?]

I am making a new thread specifically for Election Night. 

 

 

PRESIDENTIAL:

 

Spoiler

 

Republican Nominee:

 

 

Donald Trump - US President

 

 

Democrats who are running:

 

 

Joe Biden - Former Vice President of the United States

 

What 270 shows is the consensus:

 

http://www.270towin.com//images/brand/270ToWinLogo-iOS.jpg Consensus Forecast Electoral Map

WWW.270TOWIN.COM

---

The consensus ratings of a number of different forecasts.

 

 

How it looks on 538:

 

 

 

 

 

 

House composition:

 

Spoiler

 

Democrats: 233

Republicans: 197

Libertarians: 1

 

To get a majority, you need 218 seats.

 

 

Dark blue/red are open Democratic and Republican seats. The light colors are seats against incumbents. Gray means a special election still need to take place.

 

 

 

Senate composition:

 

Spoiler

 

Democrats: 45

Republicans: 53

 

A majority needs either 51, or 50 plus the vice president. For Democrats to win the majority, they either need 50 seats total and the presidency, or 51 seats if Trump wins reelection. Republicans are defending 23 seats, while the Democrats are defending 12. Democrats have more room to expand their seats, which is the opposite of 2018 when they played mostly defense and had fewer pickup opportunities.

 

 

Dark red means the incumbent is retiring. Dark blue means the Democrat is. Light colors represent races against incumbents. The rectangle in Georgia represents a special election as both Republicans are defending their seats. Perdue is defending his after winning in 2014, while the special election is a seat that was vacated in 2019 by former Senator Isakson.

 

 

Here are some of the races getting national attention (challenger vs incumbent):

 

Spoiler

 

Alabama: Former Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville wins his primary against former Alabama Senator and US Attorney General Jeff Sessions. He'll face Democrat Doug Jones in a race that Jones is an underdog despite being an incumbent. In fact, he's the only Democratic incumbent who is currently an underdog in 2020.

 

 vs 

 

Arizona: Gun control activist and former astronaut Mark Kelly is running unopposed in his primary and is the likely nominee to face Republican incumbent Martha McSally. Mark Kelly has led McSally by large margins as of this post (7/16).

 

 vs 

 

Colorado: Former Democratic governor John Hickenlooper wins his primary and faces Republican incumbent Cory Gardner.

 

 vs 

 

Georgia (general election): Along with a special election for the other Senate seat, Georgia is holding an election for this one as well. Jon Ossoff, an investigative journalist and media executive, is the Democratic nominee to face Republican Senator David Perdue (first cousin to former Georgia governor and Democrat-turned-Republican Sonny Perdue). Ossoff campaigned and lost in an unusually expensive and extremely competitive and close special election for a Georgia House seat in 2017. Despite being a safe seat for Republicans in recent history (it was in Republican hands, many times unopposed, since at least 2000, and easily voted Republican in 2016), the New York Times reported that in that race, Ossoff drove the strongest Democratic turnout in an off-year election in at least a decade. Side note: although Ossoff lost the race to Republican Karen Handel, Democrat Lucy McBath was able to defeat her in 2018.

 

 vs 

 

Georgia Special Election: This election is to serve the remaining time of former Senator Isakson, who stepped down due to health issues. The top two vote-getters, assuming the likely event that nobody wins a majority of the vote, will go to a runoff. Democrat Raphael Warnock will nearly 100% be the Democrat who goes to the runoff. The two Republicans running are Representative Collins and current Senator Kelly Loeffler, who is mired in controversy involving insider trading.

 

 vsvs

 

Iowa: Farmer and businesswoman Theresa Greenfield won her primary to face incumbent Republican Senator Joni Ernst.

 

 vs 

 

Kentucky: Former marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath won a competitive Democratic primary race to face Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Mitch McConnell's last competitive election was in 2008, a heavily Democratic year.

 

 vs 

 

Maine: Democrat and Maine House Speaker Sara Gideon wins her primary to challenge incumbent Senator Susan Collins. Susan Collins' approval ratings have been hurt after her vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh, which is resulting in polls showing a tossup despite easily winning every election for Senate except for her first one in 1996.

 

 vs 

 

Montana: Current Democratic governor and former Montana Attorney General Steve Bullock easily won his primary. He faces incumbent Senator Steve Daines in the battle for Steven Supremacy.

 

 vs 

 

North Carolina: Current Republican Senator Thom Tillis beat former Democratic Senator Kay Hagan in a close race in 2014, a big Republican year. He's a vulnerable incumbent in a state that is still Republican-leaning nationally but has been more competitive since 2008, plus has a Democratic governor who won in 2016. He faces Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham, a former member of the North Carolina State Senate and lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Army Reserve.

 

 vs 

 

South Carolina: Former Chair of the South Carolina Democratic Party, Jaime Harrison, faced on primary opposition. He wants to unseat Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham. He's raised $20 million, not much less than Graham's $22 million. Harrison is casting Graham as an out-of-touch Washington insider who has ignored South Carolina's problems and instead played politics for years.

 

 vs 

 

Texas: Democrat MJ Hegar wins her primary to run against Republican Senator John Cornyn

 

 vs 

 

 

 STATE COMPOSITION OF GOVORNERS AND STATE LEGISLATURES:

 

Spoiler

 

This is the current composition of each state's governor, legislature, House representatives and Senators. 

 

 

 

 

 

Gubernatorial Races:

 

Democrats currently control 24 governors' mansions to Republicans' 26. Unlike 2018, only a handful of gubernatorial elections are being held this year, 4 for Democrats and 7 for Republicans.

 

Spoiler

 

Legislative elections:

 

This is the current composition of party power in the states. Blue means Democrats control the governor's mansion and the state legislation. Red means Republicans control all three. Gold(?) means divided government. And gray means the unicameral legislature is non-partisan (in theory).

 

 

This is the map with just trifectas:

 

 

And this is how it looked prior to the 2018 elections:

 

 

And 2016:

 

 

In 2016, Democrats broke up Republican control of North Carolina and Nevada. Republicans took full control of New Hampshire, Missouri, Iowa, and Kentucky.

 

In 2017, Democrats took control of Washington State and New Jersey's government and significantly increased their clout in Virginia's legislature. 

 

In 2018, Democrats gained total party control in Maine, Nevada, New York, New Mexico, Colorado, and Illinois. They broke Republican trifectas in Kansas, Michigan, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin.

 

In 2019, Democrats broke Republicans' trifecta in Kentucky and took full control over all levels of Virginia's state government.

 

State races are even more important this year as we have the census. All state and House seats will be redistricted.

[SaysWho?]

I'd like to start with something optimistic. If you get a text from a volunteer, let them know what they're doing is great. They need the relief too. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

They're nervous too but they're doing their best!

[Jason]

[Kal-El814]

Wade remarked the other thread could be the election night thread; lock, ban, permaban, throw away the key, move in with KittyKat, things of that nature.

[Jason]

LOL at the picture of McConnell. 

[Firewithin]

1 minute ago, Kal-El814 said:

Wade remarked the other thread could be the election night thread; lock, ban, permaban, throw away the key, move in with KittyKat, things of that nature.

 

Nuke Handheld! 

[Jason]

Just now, Firewithin said:

 

Nuke Handheld! 

 

Collapse all the boards into a Cars board and then make streamako clean up the mess. 

[Fizzzzle]

4 hours ago, Kal-El814 said:

 

This myth needs to die forever.

That was tongue in cheek. Though it is true that Trump only won Wisconsin by 20k votes and Michigan by 10k. Bernie beat Hillary in both of those states during the primary. However, voter turnout in those states was actually higher than the national average so it's hard to make a determination that people who would have preferred Bernie just stayed home. And, at any rate, even if he lost those states he still would have won. Hillary would have needed Ohio, Pennsylvania, or North Carolina, too. It's hard to see Pennsylvania going full Bernie.

 

At any rate, it doesn't matter anymore.

[GeneticBlueprint]

If you didn't put so much effort into the OP I'd merge this bitch right now.

[Joe]

Who cares if it's a separate thread? 

[stepee]

Ok yes good one with the turtle.

[SimpleG]

Just now, Joe said:

Who cares if it's a separate thread? 

Fucking this

 

 

@SaysWho? Makes a monolith of a post, shit needs to be stickied as an example of how shit is done.

[Uaarkson]

1st page. We're all gonna die.

[Bacon]

 

[Chairslinger]

5 minutes ago, Jason said:

LOL at the picture of McConnell. 

 

Just now, stepee said:

Ok yes good one with the turtle.

 

 

The best part is that he made an epic post that played everything straight except for that one picture he snuck in there.

 

He could have posted a tangerine for Trump and Scarlett O'Hara for Grahmn, but he showed restraint, dammit.

[SaysWho?]

So just so y'all know, I did see the comments about which thread would be the election night thread and replied to them:

 

"I think it'll be easier to keep up with a separate one. I honestly don't mind creating one, even if it's kind of a makeshift one (in the process of moving and this week is CRAZY)."

 

I think it'd be fun to go back to that thread and the state/congressional races thread. I just feel like having an umbrella Election Night thread (and not just election news) would be easy to follow.

[Chairslinger]

This thread might be especially useful if Election Night turns into Election Week or Election Month

[Bacon]

I hate the megathreads. 

[Kal-El814]

8 minutes ago, Joe said:

Who cares if it's a separate thread? 

I genuinely do not lol. 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

[run32.dll]

28 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

I'd like to start with something optimistic. If you get a text from a volunteer, let them know what they're doing is great. They need the relief too. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

They're nervous too but they're doing their best!

The only texts from volunteers I've been getting are to my work number with shit like Smokey the Bear saying, "ONLY YOU CAN STOP SOCIALISM". I keep telling them I voted for Xi Jinping and I am not switching to thanking them for their service.

[Zaku3]

20 minutes ago, Bacon said:

 

 

Tomorrow's official theme song.

[Zaku3]

10 minutes ago, run32.dll said:

The only texts from volunteers I've been getting are to my work number with shit like Smokey the Bear saying, "ONLY YOU CAN STOP SOCIALISM". I keep telling them I voted for Xi Jinping and I am not switching to thanking them for their service.

 

 

This also works since NJ is voting on legalization.

[Spork3245]

[mclumber1]

I LIKE this thread.  Good job!

 

One suggestion though:  Put each of your election sections into spoilers so the page loads a bit quicker, and people who have already read your information can quickly scroll past it.

 

[SaysWho?]

 

 

[SaysWho?]

7 minutes ago, mclumber1 said:

I LIKE this thread.  Good job!

 

One suggestion though:  Put each of your election sections into spoilers so the page loads a bit quicker, and people who have already read your information can quickly scroll past it.

 

 

Good idea. Lemme get on that.

[CastlevaniaNut18]

Let's do this.

[SaysWho?]

Okay, so I did it for all except the last part.... mostly just because I wanted some pics to show, I guess?  

[thewhyteboar]

I really hope that Doug Jones can somehow pull out a victory. The thought of such an accomplished man being replaced by liquid shit is revolting.