Brick Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 15 minutes ago, mclumber1 said: tl;dr: Schumer and Pelosi suck. 9 minutes ago, marioandsonic said: -- Biden is making a 28-3 style comeback, including in Georgia -- Trump is going to throw a shitfit -- Pelosi, Schumer, and Nate Silver all need to be strapped down and beaten with sledgehammers -- Weed has been legalize in more states because we all need it What did they do (or not do) now? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kal-El814 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, Joe said: Huh? XCom players get really pissed when a shot with a 90%+ chance to hit ends up missing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sexy_shapiro Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uaarkson Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, Brick said: What did they do (or not do) now? Yes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Joe said: Huh? He’s commenting how people don’t understand that the election simulations/polling by 538 are forecasts and not predictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Brick said: What did they do (or not do) now? They exist. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chollowa Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 I'm not stoked about the Arizona reporting error. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ort Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 The next few days are gonna fucking suck. Everything sucks. Nothing good will ever happen ever again. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, Kal-El814 said: What am I missing about Silver? A 10% chance for a Trump win is not 0%. Is everyone just XComming themselves? Yes. edit: However, it seems like there was some major polling errors in more than one place. That isn’t Nate’s fault, but it certainly makes it seem like 10% should have maybe been more like 25%. But how could one ever know? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 I just did a quick Google and saw 270-267 for Biden. Is that accurate? That is way too fucking close! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osxmatt Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Brick said: What did they do (or not do) now? Yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, Kal-El814 said: What am I missing about Silver? A 10% chance for a Trump win is not 0%. Is everyone just XComming themselves? People don’t understand statistics, they don’t understand polling, and they really don’t understand their intersection at places like 538. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Kal-El814 said: XCom players get really pissed when a shot with a 90%+ chance to hit ends up missing Ah, yeah the Silver criticisms make 0 sense, once again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Brick said: I just did a quick Google and saw 270-267 for Biden. Is that accurate? That is way too fucking close! Depends theres hope GA and PA still fall for Biden in the end, so possibly more like 306-231 i think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kal-El814 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, Joe said: Ah, yeah the Silver criticisms make 0 sense, once again. I mean in XCom sometimes someone with a shotgun misses someone standing on an adjacent square and the animations don’t help so I GET IT... but 90%+ isn’t 100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, ort said: The next few days are gonna fucking suck. Everything sucks. Nothing good will ever happen ever again. Look, @Mr.Vic20 can’t buy all of us copies of Pikmin 3. You’ll just have to settle for legal weed in NJ. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cusideabelincoln Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 What is the Arizona error? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, Kal-El814 said: I mean in XCom sometimes someone with a shotgun misses someone standing on an adjacent square and the animations don’t help so I GET IT... but 90%+ isn’t 100% Try Battletech and you’ll really feel some BS probability odds. 95% odds of hitting, yet you’ll miss literally half the time still Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pikachu Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, cusideabelincoln said: What is the Arizona error? Some sort of reporting error? It was saying 99% at one point, but it's at 84% now according to AP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, sblfilms said: People don’t understand statistics, they don’t understand polling, and they really don’t understand their intersection at places like 538. If anything, this is a polling problem. Blaming Silver is just dumb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 12 minutes ago, Joe said: One nice result of this election is that we can stop blaming Hillary for 2016. My sweet summer child Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spawn_of_Apathy Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 35 minutes ago, osxmatt said: Shameless plug this is why I hate these terms. me, a millennial that not only lived through Bush v Gore in 2000, but it was my first election to vote in. this guy too young to remember, but still in the same “generation” as me. sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zaku3 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, Spork3245 said: Try Battletech and you’ll really feel some BS probability odds. 95% odds of hitting, yet you’ll miss literally half the time still The equivalent of rolling a 1 on a D6 twice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, Pikachu said: Some sort of reporting error? It was saying 99% at one point, but it's at 84% now according to AP. It's been in the 80s for awhile, and Biden has maintained that 3-4% lead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris- Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 AZ should be fine- the majority of outstanding votes are in Maricopa and Pima, which benefits Biden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fizzzzle Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 The Michigan Senate race is close as fuck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osxmatt Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Spawn_of_Apathy said: this is why I hate these terms. me, a millennial that not only lived through Bush v Gore in 2000, but it was my first election to vote in. this guy too young to remember, but still in the same “generation” as me. sure. I mean I was 12, so I kind of remember it, but mostly from the perspective of my parents rather than myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Spawn_of_Apathy said: this is why I hate these terms. me, a millennial that not only lived through Bush v Gore in 2000, but it was my first election to vote in. this guy too young to remember, but still in the same “generation” as me. sure. Well to be fair Millennial gen ends in 96 i believe, i'm an older millennial and wasn't old enough to vote in 2000 at 35. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chollowa Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, mclumber1 said: It's been in the 80s for awhile, and Biden has maintained that 3-4% lead. At some point they put it at 98% reported, but that was an error and they moved it back down to 86%. At 98% a 100k lead would have been insurmountable for Trump, but 14% is doable. I hear it would take a 60-40 split to catch up and pass for Trump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outsida Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 14 minutes ago, Uaarkson said: Michigan was NOT supposed to be this close. It’s not, they are still counting the votes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Chollowa said: At some point they put it at 98% reported, but that was an error and they moved it back down to 86%. At 98% a 100k lead would have been insurmountable for Trump, but 14% is doable. I hear it would take a 60-40 split to catch up and pass for Trump. In 2018 Sinema kept increasing her lead with the later mail in votes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Fizzzzle said: The Michigan Senate race is close as fuck. There might just be enough left in Detroit to pull him over the top but its going to be close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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