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~*Official #COVID-19 Thread of Doom*~ Revenge of Omicron Prime


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I get what sblfilms is saying, but I don't think you dismiss it as correlation does not equal causation just because we don't fully understand the data yet. You actually proceed with caution first and then reassess when/if there is new analysis.

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2 minutes ago, Joe said:

I get what sblfilms is saying, but I don't think you dismiss it as correlation does not equal causation just because we don't fully understand the data yet. You actually proceed with caution first and then reassess when/if there is new analysis.

 

But what even is the point of getting vaccinated if I can't go to Applebee's at 100% capacity NOW?!

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040421texas.jpg?w=1200&h=630&crop=1
WWW.MOTHERJONES.COM

“It’s completely ridiculous to reduce responsibility to the individual.”
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From the vaccine trials, we learned that Pfizer and Moderna both offered protection of greater than 90 percent against the virus, compared to placebo shots, while Johnson & Johnson offers protection of 66 percent. Those figures reflect what’s called relative risk—which is when you’re comparing an intervention to no intervention at all.

 

That’s different from absolute risk. In this case, absolute risk means how effective the shots would be in a world without any virus restrictions in place, a circumstance that would have been impossible when vaccines were being developed. The trials happened in the real world of 2020, where some level of social distancing requirements—mask mandates, for instance, or limits on gatherings, and restaurant restrictions—existed in some form or another almost everywhere. If, all of a sudden, we lift all those restrictions and repeated the trial, the relative efficacy of the shots—the figures above 90 percent for Pfizer and Moderna and 66 percent for Johnson and Johnson—would likely remain the same. But the absolute risk of becoming infected—for both the placebo and vaccine recipients—would almost certainly increase, meaning more cases for both groups.

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In communities with restrictions in place, survey participants will likely behave more similarly to everyone else—because rules like mask mandates ensure that everyone is taking at least some precautions. But the differences between the survey participants and the general population are likely to be greater in communities where restrictions are lifted—we must assume that once these rules no longer exist, many people will no longer voluntarily take precautions on their own. So in Texas and Mississippi, with the virus restrictions no longer in place, seroprevalence surveys may suggest a low level of community spread—when actually it’s much higher because of the lack of restrictions. 

 

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2 hours ago, Joe said:

I get what sblfilms is saying, but I don't think you dismiss it as correlation does not equal causation just because we don't fully understand the data yet. You actually proceed with caution first and then reassess when/if there is new analysis.

 

I don't think you dismiss anything, my point is that people here are taking headlines and converting them into facts to support policy positions that may not be supported by logic. I don't doubt that some people have long term negative effects, including young people and even children. But we need to know the actual risk of these things if we are going to continue particular policies for another 6-8 months. So far I haven't seen any evidence that people in our cohort are at great risk of serious complications from Covid. That's a GOOD thing. I'm glad that none of you are likely to have a bad case or long term ill effects. And the data that is coming in continues to point more and more towards there not being a large risk to younger populations, so much so that it would appear the seasonal flu is indeed more risky short and long term for children.

 

 

2 hours ago, Jason said:

 

This is from just a month ago.

 

facebook-default-wide.jpg?s=1400
WWW.NPR.ORG

Scientists are looking at how COVID-19 affects asymptomatic people in the long-term. NPR's Lulu Garcia-Navarro talks with Dr. Eric Topol of the Scripps Research about what early studies are finding.

 

 

 

There is no data presented, no info on the severity of the issues, no info on the likelihood of having the complications, no info on risk factors to have the complications. It's more or less conjecture. But I think this bit of wisdom from the interviewee would go a long way for many here:

 

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GARCIA-NAVARRO: And what should individuals do? If you're someone who has tested positive but have had no symptoms, what do they need to sort of do in order to take care of their health?

 

TOPOL: Well, you know, not to fret about it because there's still so many unknowns here, Lulu. I think the point is we need to study it so that we can inform people at some point down the road what might be in store. But at this point, it's not worth having anxiety because most people, of course, without symptoms, when you think about how many there are, are going to do exceedingly well. We really need to study this to nail it down.

 

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2 hours ago, Kal-El814 said:

 

Thanks, I hate it. :|

It's daily. Sometimes multiple times a day. I'm always happy when they freak out at through email or FB instead of in person at me or my staff though :lol:

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Your position seems to be that we should act on the rosiest possible assumptions until we have enough data to satisfy you. The rest of us are saying hey maybe let's not blow this with a victory dance at the 5 yard line. 

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27 minutes ago, Jason said:

Your position seems to be that we should act on the rosiest possible assumptions until we have enough data to satisfy you. The rest of us are saying hey maybe let's not blow this with a victory dance at the 5 yard line. 

My position is the data already leans away from your fears. And more so each month. So my prediction is in a few months we will be in a position to make pretty significant changes to restrictions. I’ve been really clear about this and you still are doing the “so what you’re saying is” routine :p 

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From the CDC:

 

sm-your-health.jpg
WWW.CDC.GOV

Symptoms, testing, what to do if sick, daily activities, and more.

 

 

Quote

While most persons with COVID-19 recover and return to normal health, some patients can have symptoms that can last for weeks or even months after recovery from acute illness. Even people who are not hospitalized and who have mild illness can experience persistent or late symptoms. Multi-year studies are underway to further investigate. CDC continues to work to identify how common these symptoms are, who is most likely to get them, and whether these symptoms eventually resolve.

 

 

I don't see why we wouldn't be cautious here when the data is very much preliminary. *shrugs

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18 minutes ago, Joe said:

From the CDC:

 

sm-your-health.jpg
WWW.CDC.GOV

Symptoms, testing, what to do if sick, daily activities, and more.

 

 

 

 

I don't see why we wouldn't be cautious here when the data is very much preliminary. *shrugs


I don’t recall being against caution. I do recall arguing that the data will support changes, so we will see changes. I do think some level of caution though is unmoored from the facts, like things I’ve seen about fears of walking around outside in masks with friends 😉

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7 minutes ago, sblfilms said:


I don’t recall being against caution. I do recall arguing that the data will support changes, so we will see changes. I do think some level of caution though is unmoored from the facts, like things I’ve seen about fears of walking around outside in masks with friends 😉

 

I knew I was being irrational there! That doesn't count! lol

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I must of had a very mild or asymptomatic case of Covid-19, but the long hauler symptoms have been much much worse. I can be walking and having a normal conversation and like a punch to the gut, I have the worse feeling of nausea for 3-5min and then it’s gone. I get this usually 3-5 times a week and so does my mom. She still can’t taste coffee, onions, peppers and pop properly because they all taste soapy to her. We have also had about 3 or 4 really odd weeks where the smell/sight of food made us ill. We knew we had to eat something and half a bowl (if that) later we were full. Still get days of this feeling and it sucks, some 11 months after we came down with Covid. 

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7 minutes ago, silentbob said:

I must of had a very mild or asymptomatic case of Covid-19, but the long hauler symptoms have been much much worse. I can be walking and having a normal conversation and like a punch to the gut, I have the worse feeling of nausea for 3-5min and then it’s gone. I get this usually 3-5 times a week and so does my mom. She still can’t taste coffee, onions, peppers and pop properly because they all taste soapy to her. We have also had about 3 or 4 really odd weeks where the smell/sight of food made us ill. We knew we had to eat something and half a bowl (if that) later we were full. Still get days of this feeling and it sucks, some 11 months after we came down with Covid. 

I've been wondering if something similar happened to me. All of the sudden, over the last couple weeks, I'll get woken up in the the middle of the night by the taste of my own saliva. A couple times it's actually made me vomit. I'm now brushing my teeth or washing my mouth out like 6 times a day, which I've never done before, and it still doesn't really help that much.

 

My brother had bronchitis for like 5 months after getting covid.

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10 minutes ago, CayceG said:

 

I did too! For FEDERAL court. 

 

But so far, I'm on week 2 of being approved, but not assigned a case. Fingers crossed for you that you won't either. 

 

I won't know until May 2nd but yeah looking at the instructions this is different than usual.

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Sounds like a lot of people in France are refusing to get the Astrazeneca vaccine

 

?m=02&d=20210308&t=2&i=1554145134&r=LYNX
WWW.REUTERS.COM

A 60-year-old recovering from breast cancer, Paris resident Nadine Roger is at high-risk from COVID-19 and wants to get vaccinated as soon as possible. Yet when she was offered the vaccine manufactured by AstraZeneca she turned it down.

 

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