Joe Biden beats Donald Trump, officially making Trump a one-term twice impeached, twice popular-vote losing president

[Kal-El814]

28 minutes ago, Joe said:

 

I'm somewhat worried, but I'm worried about the former and not the latter (regarding Nate's tweet). This is only going to be bad if the election is close, and right now it's not close.

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?

[Joe]

1 minute ago, Kal-El814 said:

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?

 

Right! That's bad enough on its own, we don't have to make crazier shit up for the hell of it.

[CitizenVectron]

Yeah I think Biden (and down-ballot Dems) are going to actually do better than the polls suggest, in a lot of places.

[Spawn_of_Apathy]

5 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Yeah I think Biden (and down-ballot Dems) are going to actually do better than the polls suggest, in a lot of places.

maybe we get a bit of the reverse of 2016. People living in households with a very pro-Trump person that when polled also says they’re pro-Trump to keep from upsetting their spouse/parent. But in the privacy of a voting booth is voting against Trump this time. 

[Guest]

Obviously anecdotal, but I’ve seen a lot more friends and family post with their “I voted” stickers this year than 2016, and a decent amount are first time Trump voters. I still see a path for a Trump win, even though it’s much more likely to be a Biden win.

 

As the saying goes, polling isn’t voting.

[ThreePi]

50 minutes ago, Chairslinger said:

 

 

I wouldn't at all be surprised if a movement grows on the right to officially change the American flag.

 

I can already hear the arguments,

 

"Liberals are the ones tearing down our history, redefining marriage, and changing everything that makes America great. As long as they insist on change, let's make it a good one."

 

"Why wouldn't you support the new flag unless you hate cops?"

 

"Maybe those two officers wouldn't have died in the line of duty if we paid more respect to their sacrifice."

 

Dems are gonna change the flag first when they start adding more stars to it.

[Keyser_Soze]

5 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

Obviously anecdotal, but I’ve seen a lot more friends and family post with their “I voted” stickers this year than 2016

 

Did any of them say how sexy Dan is?

[SaysWho?]

Trump has a path to win. Though on my part, anecdotally I know more people who didn't vote or voted third party in 2016 who are voting Biden this year. Unfortunately, one's in Alabama, so that doesn't count because electoral college.

 

But when you have infrequent Dem voters vote dem like mclumber massdriver and sblfilms, who ALL have m's in their name, that should tell you that shit's going down.

[SaysWho?]

 

[Jason]

3 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

Trump has a path to win. Though on my part, anecdotally I know more people who didn't vote or voted third party in 2016 who are voting Biden this year. Unfortunately, one's in Alabama, so that doesn't count because electoral college.

 

But when you have infrequent Dem voters vote dem like mclumber massdriver and sblfilms, who ALL have m's in their name, that should tell you that shit's going down.

 

I'm voting D for president for the first time in my life.

[SaysWho?]

1 minute ago, Jason said:

 

I'm voting D for president for the first time in my life.

 

You fucked up the m's  

[atom631]

1 minute ago, SaysWho? said:

Trump has a path to win. Though on my part, anecdotally I know more people who didn't vote or voted third party in 2016 who are voting Biden this year. Unfortunately, one's in Alabama, so that doesn't count because electoral college.

 

But when you have infrequent Dem voters vote dem like mclumber massdriver and sblfilms, who ALL have m's in their name, that should tell you that shit's going down.

 

i didn't vote for Hillary in 2016 (didnt vote Trump either) but I am voting Biden. I'm in NY so my vote is useless, but I thought I would throw that out there. 

 

I've been a lifelong independent and my voting record leans conservative...that started to shift in Obama's second term. Now Im completely left since republicans decided this con-man was their guy and what has transpired in the last 4 years. I dont think I could ever vote right again. 

[Jason]

Just now, SaysWho? said:

 

You fucked up the m's  

 

[johnny]

I can’t even imagine the thought process behind somebody being a first time voter because you want trump to stay in office 

[osxmatt]

I'm not sure if anyone else is an Ezra Klein fan, but his latest episode with Nate Silver just posted this morning and it's excellent.

 

The Ezra Klein Show - Nate Silver on why 2020 isn't 2016

PODCASTS.GOOGLE.COM

---

As you may have heard, there's a pretty important election coming up. That means it's time to bring back the one and only Nate Silver.  Silver, the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, boasts one of the best election forecasting records of any analyst in the last 15 years. His forecasting models successfully predicted the outcomes in 49 of the 50 states in the 2008 US presidential election and all 50 states in 2012. And in...

 

[SaysWho?]

 

"60% of the likely electorate said they had already voted, and they backed Biden 55-39. Party reg was D40, R31, so very close to the current state figures (39-31). Those same voters said they backed Clinton 39-35 in 2016. If that's right, then a lot of the Trump-->Biden swing is already banked here."

 

It's a Republican sampled poll, too. From Nate Cohn: "NC party ID is R+3, NC recalled 2016 vote is Trump+6; party reg is D+4." Trump won by 4 points, not 6. So it's still a competitive state, but this is a pretty good poll for Biden. Let's hope it goes blue this year!

[Mr.Vic20]

5 minutes ago, johnny said:

I can’t even imagine the thought process behind somebody being a first time voter because you want trump to stay in office 

Let me ask you a question, how do you feel about your sister? 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

10 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

I'm voting D for president for the first time in my life.

Thanks jasom

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

But when you have infrequent Dem voters vote dem like mclumber massdriver and sblfilms, who ALL have m's in their name, that should tell you that shit's going down.

It’s just science!

[SaysWho?]

Also, I'm not gonna engage because I don't think there's a point, but I'll say this to those of you who are worried:

 

There's nothing wrong with being nervous or wondering what Republicans might pull. It's safe to say Biden is the favorite much more than Hillary was, but that Trump has a path, albeit a narrow one. However, there's no sense in discussing the former imo because there's no new info. It's just regurgitating the same fears about what a stolen election would look like over and over again in exhausting fashion. In my eyes, I see no point in us crossing that bridge until we actually maybe get there or else why the hell were we shitting our pants this long if the scenario occurs where Biden just wins and Trump's a sore loser but that's it? 

 

That's a lot of energy being expended worrying about something out of your control that isn't guaranteed to happen. It makes sense to worry about it if it's election night and things are super close and "IT'S BEEN STOLEN!" shit happens, but we should actively be anxious at that point, not prior to it. Stuff like the makeup of SCOTUS are problems, but again, cross the bridge once it happens. If you're worried, team up with one of the many groups that are focused on that or voting rights activism because they're working overtime right now, and those victories (which, yes, shouldn't be considered Democratic victories as much as democratic victories) are possible because of sensible, fair-minded people who are working to make this country better.

 

Bad shit could happen, but so could something could, so for now, posting election updates -- stories and polls -- makes more sense than thinking about the worst case scenario to everything.

[Guest]

I also want to say, I don’t think it just matters that Trump loses the EV. Obviously that is paramount, but for people in safe Biden states it still matters for our nation that Trump’s loss is as large as possible. This needs to be a referendum on him.

[marioandsonic]

I was nervous as hell during the 2018 election, and still was most of the night (thanks to the NYT needle and what not) until it was confirmed the Dems were taking the house.  That was a referendum on Trump at that point, and that was with no Covid and a strong economy.  And Biden has a mush stronger lead in the polls than Hillary did, so logically, there should be no reason to worry right now.

 

But we all know things involving Trump and 2020 are anything but logical at this point.

[GeneticBlueprint]

13 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

I also want to say, I don’t think it just matters that Trump loses the EV. Obviously that is paramount, but for people in safe Biden states it still matters for our nation that Trump’s loss is as large as possible. This needs to be a referendum on him.

 

Also those in safe red states. That has been my motivation in 2012 and 2016 voting in a solid red state.

[Spork3245]

1 hour ago, Joe said:

 

Because it just seems highly improbable given the polling numbers.

 

The issue is not the polling or the electoral college victory. I don't think many are feverishly disputing the polls or even don't think that Biden will get 270 EV. The concern is the nonsense going on regarding state GOP heads calling "election fraud" in swing states and the electors being given permission to not go by popular vote, this then goes to the SCOTUS which has the conservative majority shrug and say "well, there's nothing official in the constitution about this"... because this is almost literally what Trump and the GOP have been saying they want done. I'm with you on dismissing people screaming "tHe PoLlS r wRonG!!!!11!!1!", but that's not what the concern is.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

22 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

I also want to say, I don’t think it just matters that Trump loses the EV. Obviously that is paramount, but for people in safe Biden states it still matters for our nation that Trump’s loss is as large as possible. This needs to be a referendum on him.

Get ready for "if you take away all of the votes in CA then trump wins the popular vote" a la 2016 and Hillary. Cause that was an actual thing by one or two people _here_ a few years ago.

[Captain Pickle]

1 hour ago, Jason said:

 

I'm voting D for president for the first time in my life.

Wait, you voted for trump last time?

[Spork3245]

1 minute ago, Captain Pickle said:

Wait, you voted for trump last time?

He voted to find out what Aleppo is.

[Joe]

35 minutes ago, Spork3245 said:

 

The issue is not the polling or the electoral college victory. I don't think many are feverishly disputing the polls or even don't think that Biden will get 270 EV. The concern is the nonsense going on regarding state GOP heads calling "election fraud" in swing states and the electors being given permission to not go by popular vote, this then goes to the SCOTUS which has the conservative majority shrug and say "well, there's nothing official in the constitution about this"... because this is almost literally what Trump and the GOP have been saying they want done. I'm with you on dismissing people screaming "tHe PoLlS r wRonG!!!!11!!1!", but that's not what the concern is.

 

Again, I'm just not sure it will be close enough to matter.

 

FWIW, I think the histrionics are a net positive because Democrats are voting early and in person at the moment. They are leaving little to chance (or the GOP). 

[Spork3245]

6 minutes ago, Joe said:

 

Again, I'm just not sure it will be close enough to matter.

 

FWIW, I think the histrionics are a net positive because Democrats are voting early and in person at the moment. They are leaving little to chance. 

Unless it’s a Biden blow out, the GOP/Trump screaming “fraud” negates it really needing to be “close” for there to be fuckery... unless there’s some written down policies (not “norms” or “precedents”) I’m not aware of that protects/stops this? 
On that note, I hate that simply winning isn’t enough for Biden, it has to “we gotta win big!” or the chances for BS seem high. Trump just needs a squeaker of a win and that’s it. Two different standards, such BS. 

[SaysWho?]

I asked one of my friends who is voting Biden/Harris if he voted in 2016. He said he was third party. He's also someone who opposed Obama in 2012.

 

I ain't gonna argue with him about voting third party in 2016 because that's over with. But I asked him to get a feel for if he was a third party->Biden voter and he is. I'm seeing a lot more of that this time around and I hope I don't just have the perfect mix of friends.  

[chakoo]

1 hour ago, Spork3245 said:

 

The issue is not the polling or the electoral college victory. I don't think many are feverishly disputing the polls or even don't think that Biden will get 270 EV. The concern is the nonsense going on regarding state GOP heads calling "election fraud" in swing states and the electors being given permission to not go by popular vote, this then goes to the SCOTUS which has the conservative majority shrug and say "well, there's nothing official in the constitution about this"... because this is almost literally what Trump and the GOP have been saying they want done. I'm with you on dismissing people screaming "tHe PoLlS r wRonG!!!!11!!1!", but that's not what the concern is.

 

I think this point gets lost a lot when people read post from the doom and gloom crowd. A lot of us have posted for ages that we expect a Biden win on votes but we're also pointing out not "what we think the GOP will do" but what the GOP are actually telling us and what they are doing right now. Now personally I think the GOP has gone and fucked up by being so public/vocal about it that it's pushing more people to vote so that it won't be very effective.  

 

Now the one person who is doom and gloom that the polling isn't accurate and trump will still win because of 2016 is posting gibberish. 

[Joe]

1 hour ago, sblfilms said:

Obviously anecdotal, but I’ve seen a lot more friends and family post with their “I voted” stickers this year than 2016, and a decent amount are first time Trump voters. I still see a path for a Trump win, even though it’s much more likely to be a Biden win.

 

As the saying goes, polling isn’t voting.

 

One interesting note that I haven't seen discussed too much is that Trump is going to gain voters like my dad. He didn't think Trump was a serious candidate or a fiscal conservative, so he didn't bother to vote on election day. He is definitely voting for Trump this time around.

[Mr.Vic20]

5 minutes ago, Joe said:

 

One interesting note that I haven't seen discussed too much is that Trump is going to gain voters like my dad. He didn't think Trump was a serious candidate or a fiscal conservative, so he didn't bother to vote on election day. He is definitely voting for Trump this time around.

Please let your dad know that he's an idiot. -Random internet guy who's opinion matters very little <--- in case he asks! 

[Joe]

1 minute ago, Mr.Vic20 said:

Please let your dad know that he's an idiot. -Random internet guy who's opinion matters very little <--- in case he asks! 

 

Hey now, my dad is an amazing man, but he has a 6th grade education and thinks OANN is amazing. 

[Spork3245]

1 minute ago, Joe said:

 

Hey now, my dad is an amazing man, but he has a 6th grade education and thinks OANN is amazing. 

Get him this shirt

Spoiler