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Joe Biden beats Donald Trump, officially making Trump a one-term twice impeached, twice popular-vote losing president


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1 hour ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

 

 

 

 

Like Wade says, hard to say for sure.

 

But if Trump does end up losing than my guess is that this surge is the "can he just shut up and we have a boring president again for a little while please for the love of God!" vote.

 

No secret I have been pretty pessimistic about this election, but it's hard to see how this surge doesn't bode well for Biden. I am just very dubious that there is a large voting bloc that didn't vote for Trump in 2016, watched the past four years, and said, "I gotta get me some of that".

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Caveat: in other polls, Biden leads more with Hispanics in Florida.

 

"A Univision poll released Wednesday painted a different picture. It showed Biden doing markedly better among Florida Hispanics, leading Trump by 20 points, 57 to 37 percent. A CBS News Battleground poll released last week had Biden leading [them] by 27 points.”

 

Florida's harder because the Hispanic vote obviously includes Cuban Americans, and while younger Cubans are less Republican percentage-wise, the entire demographic is still strongly for Trump overall.

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For that NBC poll:

 

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In the most recent poll, Biden has advantages among Black voters (84 percent to 14 percent), whites with college degrees (58 percent to 40 percent), women (57 percent to 41 percent), independents (55 percent to 41 percent) and seniors (53 percent to 46 percent).

 

In September, Biden and Trump were essentially tied among seniors, while Biden was ahead among independents by 11 points.

 

Trump's advantages, meanwhile, are among Florida Latinos (52 percent to 46 percent), white voters (52 percent to 45 percent), men (54 percent to 44 percent) and whites without college degrees (62 percent to 36 percent).

 

And the composition:

 

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Thirty-three percent of likely voters identify as Republican, 29 percent are Democrats, and 36 percent are independents.

 

And 42 percent of all likely voters hold college degrees, while whites with college degrees make up 27 percent of the likely voter sample.

 

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8 hours ago, osxmatt said:

 

How accurate is this data?

 

I've been asking / researching for days if there is any data yet on whether the early turnout is just a higher percentage of the total 2016 electorate, or if these are new / returning voters.

He's the ceo of a polling/analysis firm so hopefully not too far off

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7 hours ago, DPCyric said:

 

:epilepsy: I love it! It was great seeing Trent Reznor out there doing his things but this turns it up to 11 :lol: Next up Taylor Swift please?

You’re a bit late with that request, she already has already came out for Biden a while back and urged her fans to vote.

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13 hours ago, Joe said:

 

Agreed with this. Still pretty fucked though.

 

This IS the problem. The GOP has made it harder to vote, they’ve made it harder for votes to be counted, and they’re actively and openly making it so that anything within a recall margin is fucked. It’s never been about SCOTUS waving its magic wand and dubbing Trump the victor out of the ether, it’s the three pronged approach that means that for Democrats to win the general election they need to carry significantly more water.

 

Assuming for a moment that Biden coasts beyond the point where his victory is in question, the SCOTUS balance likely isn’t changing meaningfully in the next 4 years and unless the Senate flips too, presidential elections are going to be like this for the foreseeable future.

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3 minutes ago, Kal-El814 said:

 

This IS the problem. The GOP has made it harder to vote, they’ve made it harder for votes to be counted, and they’re actively and openly making it so that anything within a recall margin is fucked. It’s never been about SCOTUS waving its magic wand and dubbing Trump the victor out of the ether, it’s the three pronged approach that means that for Democrats to win the general election they need to carry significantly more water.

 

Assuming for a moment that Biden coasts beyond the point where his victory is in question, the SCOTUS balance likely isn’t changing meaningfully in the next 4 years and unless the Senate flips too, presidential elections are going to be like this for the foreseeable future.

 

Yuuuuuuuuuuuuup.

The polls are great and all, but do they matter when the votes of people being polled are actively being suppressed? In some states it's looking like you could do everything right, and either a mailing error or simply the poll workers not counting your vote in time could mean your vote is worthless. I'm not trying to doom and gloom, really, I'm not - but being concerned about how this election will play out is not "bizarre" or "crazy", I'd actually say that all the eye rolling and unabashed dismission of concerns is what's so f'n bizarre here.

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