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~*Official #COVID-19 Thread of Doom*~ Revenge of Omicron Prime

AbsolutSurgen
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7 minutes ago, SilentWorld said:

Look at the labels on the y axis. It’s a cumulative numbers log chart. China had close to 100 new cases yesterday, but it’s going to be hard to see that on a log chart where the sum of cases is nearly 100,000. Compare that to South Korea that is reporting a slightly higher amount of new cases a day (140 yesterday I think) but it’s much more noticeable because their sum total is <10,000. 

I know what the chart is. They are claiming close to no new cases.

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31 minutes ago, SlipperySlope said:

I bet the dynamics of Texas would change if it were it's own country. The innovation there happens in the blue cities, and they would have far greater pull and influence within the state if it were independent. 


It’s a fossil fuel state and the “blue cities” are only blue if you think of Houston, Dallas, and Austin as only the people who live in the city limits as opposed to the whole of their metro areas. They lean blue in the center, surrounded by bands of red suburbs.

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AbsolutSurgen

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Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model &nbsp;

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Think of it like making a pie. If you have a normal recipe, you can do it pretty easily and expect a predictable result that makes sense. But if the recipe contains instructions like “add three to 15 chopped apples, or steaks, or brussels sprouts, depending on what you have on hand” … well, that’s going to affect how tasty this pie is, isn’t it? You can make assumptions about the correct ingredients and their quantity. But those are assumptions — not absolute facts. And if you make too many assumptions in your pie-baking process, you might very well end up with something entirely different than what you were meant to be making. And you wouldn’t necessarily know you got it wrong.

Over the next few months, you are going to see many different predictions about COVID-19 outcomes. They won’t all agree. But just because they’re based on assumptions doesn’t mean they’re worthless.

“All models are wrong, it’s striving to make them less wrong and useful in the moment,” Weir said.

We’re hungry, so somebody has to do some baking. But be sure to ask what ingredients went into that pie and in what quantities.

 

 

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Kal-El814

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1 minute ago, Spork3245 said:

I dunno. There’s your post.

 

Anti vaxxers overstate the danger of vaccines and their contents, they overestimate the risks of vaccines, and they generally don't understand how something why you could still get the flu if you get the flu shot. I've seen them doubt the utility of something like the polio vaccine because of the scarcity of polio, I've not seen them doubt that the diseases that vaccines treat actually exist, or doubt the efficacy of things like the MMR vaccine.

 

It's a dumb meme.

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