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~*Official Utterly Useless Old Woman, AOC, and UBI Thread*~


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A new poll came out with Scott ahead of Nelson by 1 point in Florida and Gillum ahead of Desantis by 1. Abrams is ahead when all adults are interviewed by 2 points, and Kemp is ahead of her by 1 when likely voters are polled.

 

Margin of error tight. I really hope people show up to vote; people like Gillum and Abrams can show that you can run on more of a base platform and attract more people to the polls and even persuade those you wouldn't expect to persuade.

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I cast my ballot today - the first day of early voting. 

 

Karl Dean for Governor

Phil Bredesen for Senator

Jim Cooper for Rep

 

And there were a few ballot measures too:

I voted in favor of a Community Oversight Board for Metro Nashville's police department. I voted against a change in term limits of City Councilmen from 2-6yr terms to 3. And I voted against requiring councilmen and mayors to take an oath against the Metro Charter. Because fuck oaths. 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Massdriver said:

Republican Governor Greg Abbott has a 99.6% chance of being reelected in Texas. They have the governor probabilities up at 538: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/governor/

 

Thanks for the link. It makes me a sad panda, however, that my absentee ballot will do almost no good in my "solidly Republican" home state (Idaho). :(

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5 hours ago, Massdriver said:

Republican Governor Greg Abbott has a 99.6% chance of being reelected in Texas. They have the governor probabilities up at 538: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/governor/

 

Gillum is favored here (though not at 99% lol). Still, I'm really hoping he's pulling in those non-likely voters.

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1 hour ago, SaysWho? said:

 

Gillum is favored here (though not at 99% lol). Still, I'm really hoping he's pulling in those non-likely voters.

The Democratic candidate for governor in Texas is extremely weak. I don't think a lot of Democrats even like her because of some of the anti immigration actions she took as sheriff.

 

No one wants to face and spend money fighting Abbott after he demolished Wendy Davis. He is very well liked here. Abbott would be much more moderate if it wasn't for Lt. Governor Dan Patrick pushing him to the right in the Texas Senate.

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18 hours ago, Nokra said:

 

Thanks for the link. It makes me a sad panda, however, that my absentee ballot will do almost no good in my "solidly Republican" home state (Idaho). :(

 

Just remember that it's important that we win every race, not just the big ones, as it's clear even at the local level Republicans have taken over, and not in a good way. So while you may lose some big ones you may still snag smaller seats if everyone who thinks they'll lose with the big ones votes anyway to win the small ones.

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4 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

Ohh no, he gets to stay on the ballot, and he could win which would I assume trigger a special election, lol.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/assembly-pick-will-be-in-hands-of-counties-if-dennis-hof-wins-election/

 

Quote

If Hof does defeat Democrat Lesia Romanov, a vacancy would be created in Assembly District 36. That will prompt a process where three commissions of each county included in the district must come together to find a Republican replacement a few months before the start of the 2019 legislative session.

 

“We’ve seen local vacancies, but never where it’s crossed county lines, which obviously makes it more difficult,” Koenig said.

 

The district covers all of Nye County and parts of Clark and Lincoln counties, so the three boards of commissioners would have to nominate one candidate to fill the vacancy, then hold a joint meeting to discuss the nominees and choose a replacement, according to Rick Combs, the director of Nevada’s Legislative Council Bureau.

 

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Recent NYTs polls completed.

 

FL15 -43R 43D - This is a lean GOP district

PA8 - 52D 40R- Trump won this are by 10

NJ11 - 49D 38R - A Democrat has not won this seat since the 80s

ME2 - 41D 41R - Obama Trump district that voted 10 points for the R in 2016.

KS3 - 48D 39R - Romney Clinton district that voted +11 for the Republican in 2016.

 

538 Has Dems picking up 36 or 39 house seats on average in all 3 models, with a high/low of 61-15 seats, with dems generic ballot lead at almost 9% and dems almost at 50% in the generic ballot as the switch to LV polls hasn't helped the GOP.

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This seems significant

 

Quote

Most of the counties have not announced new voting procedures, but Gulf County, southeast of Panama City — home to 10,216 registered voters — is an example of what can be done.

In a statement posted to social media, John M. Hanlon, the supervisor of elections in Gulf County, said conditions there were “catastrophic.” But voting will take place anyway.

He said voters in the county would not be able to vote at their normal, designated polling places on Election Day. Instead, they have the following options:

They can vote by mail.

They can come to the elections office to fill out an absentee ballot, or take one home and return it at a later date.

They can request that an absentee ballot be emailed to them. Once they complete it, they must fax it back along with a signed voter’s certificate. This procedure is a concession to the storm: In normal circumstances, voters cannot use emailed ballots.

They can vote at one of two “voting super centers” that the county will open on Oct. 26 and keep open until Nov. 6. They will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.

Also

Quote

Aside from that, the state government appears to be in listening mode, maintaining regular communication with election supervisors in affected counties. Mr. Lux said local election officials felt they had received little help from the federal government.

“If you’re wondering what the government response has been, we’re sort of wondering, too,” he said.

 

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