~*Official Utterly Useless Old Woman, AOC, and UBI Thread*~

[Massdriver]

 

POLITICO race ratings: The GOP House is crumbling

Quote

 

There are now 209 seats either firmly or leaning in the Democratic column — only 9 shy of the 218 needed to win control.

 

The Republican House majority continues to show signs of collapsing, with Democrats steadily gaining ground toward erasing the 23-seat margin and ending eight years of GOP control.

 

A total of 68 seats currently held by Republicans are firmly in play — rated as “Lean Republican” or worse for the GOP — presenting a stark contrast to the Democratic side, where only a half-dozen Democratic seats are in similar jeopardy.

 

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/09/race-ratings-congress-midterms-881099

 

Poll: Dems lead GOP by 13 points on generic congressional ballot

 

https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/410575-poll-dems-lead-gop-by-13-points-on-generic-congressional-ballot

 

What’s Behind Democrats’ Shrinking Senate Odds?

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whats-behind-democrats-shrinking-senate-odds/?ex_cid=2018-forecast

[Anathema-]

What's strange is how the Democrat's Senate odds are somewhat divergent from their positions in the individual races (and, also strange, that is reversed for the House).

[thewhyteboar]

 

[thewhyteboar]

 

[mclumber1]

12 minutes ago, thewhyteboar said:

 

 

https://vip.sos.nd.gov/pdfs/Portals/Voting-MailBallotAbsentee.pdf

 

If you are already to registered to vote, it's apparently easy to get an absentee ballot in North Dakota.  Why the hell do people even go to polling places anymore?  Voting by mail is awesome.  Vote by mail should be the standard in every state.  

[thewhyteboar]

 

[SaysWho?]

Scott is going crazy getting on-air as much as possible with Michael approaching, more than Irma. Almost as if he's running for Senate.

 

This ad has been making its rounds: 

 

 

 

[RedSoxFan9]

 

Cory Booker doing something good

[sexy_shapiro]

Tennessee voting experts say Taylor Swift may actually turn the state blue

 

Those 12 year old girls sure have an impact.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

14 minutes ago, sexy_shapiro said:

Tennessee voting experts say Taylor Swift may actually turn the state blue

 

Those 12 year old girls sure have an impact.

People may laugh, but she probably has far more credibility than any other person for people under 25

[SuperSpreader]

Hey Taylor, I'm really happy for you, and imma let you finish, but the gop has one of the best platforms of all time!!

 

[SaysWho?]

Democrats Have A Chance To Win One Of The Reddest Districts In The Country

 

Quote

President Trump won the 3rd District, anchored by Huntington, by 49 percentage points, and the district’s FiveThirtyEight partisan lean1 is R+37, meaning it is 37 points more Republican than the country as a whole. In fact, the West Virginia 3rd is one of the 50 most GOP-leaning seats in the country, according to our calculations. Yet the election prognosticators have tagged the race as “Lean Republican” or even a “Toss-up,” and nonpartisan polls have found mixed results since the May primary.

 

So how did such a deeply Republican seat become competitive? For one thing, it’s an open seat held by the presidential party, which can make it particularly susceptible to large swings in party vote share. The seat’s incumbent, Evan Jenkins, ran for a U.S. Senate seat instead of seeking re-election, so the 3rd is among the 41 seats Republicans are defending where the incumbent either retired, ran for another office or lost renomination.2 Another crucial factor is the cross-party appeal of state Sen. Richard Ojeda, the Democratic nominee, and his in-your-face populism. We know Ojeda could be a real threat because he won his state Senate district 59 percent to 41 percent in 2016, even as it backed Trump 78 percent to 19 percent.

Despite all that, the “Classic” version of FiveThirtyEight’s House forecast currently gives Ojeda’s GOP opponent, state Delegate Carol Miller, around a 9 in 10 chance of winning — making West Virginia’s 3rd one of the districts where our forecast most disagrees with election handicappers. Our “Lite” forecast, which tries to rely as much as possible on the polls, has her as only a 3 in 5 favorite, though — it agrees with the handicappers.

 

The disagreement between our “Classic” forecast in West Virginia 3rd on one side and our “Lite” forecast and the handicappers on the other, basically comes down to this: Could a Democrat really win such a red district? If Ojeda were to win in November, his victory as a Democrat in an R+37 seat would rank as the largest “crossover” midterm party flip — by far — since at least 1998.

 

[Guest]

3 hours ago, sexy_shapiro said:

Tennessee voting experts say Taylor Swift may actually turn the state blue

 

Those 12 year old girls sure have an impact.

Read more than the headline next time  

[sexy_shapiro]

2 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

Read more than the headline next time  

 

I did and I realize it’s more complicated than the headline is implying, but let me be petty just this once.

[Amazatron]

On 10/9/2018 at 9:14 PM, thewhyteboar said:

 

 

What was this?

[atom631]

4 hours ago, sexy_shapiro said:

Tennessee voting experts say Taylor Swift may actually turn the state blue

 

Those 12 year old girls sure have an impact.

 

I think there would be nothing more satisfying than finding out that the largest turnout of voters who swung the power back to the democrats were from the millennial's.  

 

After the constant bullying the conservatives do to the millennial's, this would be the ultimate revenge. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

New poll shows Democrat Shalala trailing GOP opponent in a district Trump lost badly

Shalala, a Democrat running in a district that President Donald Trump lost by nearly 20 percentage points in 2016, is trailing Republican TV journalist Maria Elvira Salazar by 2 percentage points in a Mason Dixon-Telemundo 51 poll. The independent poll’s margin of error was 4 percentage points and included a pro-Trump non-party candidate who could siphon votes from Salazar.

[Jason]

Spoiler

 

 

[PaladinSolo]

Beto raised 38 million last quarter from over 800k people with an average dollar amount ~47$, 3 times what Cruz did at 12 million, most of it is coming from within Texas not outside, and is the largest Senate race haul ever.

 

 

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

So even just including the Texan contributions, that's at least 19 million from Texas. Hope that can turn into votes

[Jason]

But I thought the libcucks wanted money out of politics! 

[Massdriver]

 Ted Cruz leads Beto O'Rourke in new poll by nine points

 

Beto is done at this point.  Cruz's RLC average lead is 7 points. 

[Kal-El814]

On 10/9/2018 at 6:42 PM, PaladinSolo said:

The Kavanaugh bump is real, the GOP is 30 points in the hole with women in CNN's latest poll, 63-33.

 

 

What irony that the GOP confirmed Kavanaugh and now want to get rid of a bump. 

[mclumber1]

13 minutes ago, Massdriver said:

 Ted Cruz leads Beto O'Rourke in new poll by nine points

 

Beto is done at this point.  Cruz's RLC average lead is 7 points. 

 

I've said it before, and I'll say it again:  Beto will lose because of his stance on guns.  If he were pro-gun, he would be winning right now.  People don't like Ted Cruz (serial killer), but Texans would rather vote for him than the guy who wants to outlaw semi-auto rifles. 

[Massdriver]

2 minutes ago, mclumber1 said:

 

I've said it before, and I'll say it again:  Beto will lose because of his stance on guns.  If he were pro-gun, he would be winning right now.  People don't like Ted Cruz (serial killer), but Texans would rather vote for him than the guy who wants to outlaw semi-auto rifles. 

I would be very impressed if Beto managed to garner 48% of the vote given his political stances.

[PaladinSolo]

3 minutes ago, Massdriver said:

I would be very impressed if Beto managed to garner 48% of the vote given his political stances.

538 has him getting ~47%, RCP doesn't include as many polls into its averages for whatever reason, so theirs is a bit higher, for example the same time that Q poll came out a Reuters/IPSOS poll had Beto up 1, which RCP doesn't include.

[SaysWho?]

1 hour ago, Massdriver said:

 Ted Cruz leads Beto O'Rourke in new poll by nine points

 

Beto is done at this point.  Cruz's RLC average lead is 7 points. 

 

Cruz is the favorite, but you have to remember:

 

1) It's October 12th, not the beginning of November.

2) If this is a wave year like 2010/2014, polls can be off by more than 7 points.

3) RCP doesn't compile all polls, nor do they give more weight to more reliable polls. 538's is around 5.5 points in Cruz's direction and compiles more data. Still a favorite, but hardly a "done at this point."

[SaysWho?]

Stacey Abrams campaign demands GOP's Kemp resign as Georgia secretary of state amid voter registration uproar

 

Quote

Georgia Democrat Stacey Abrams' campaign is calling on Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp to resign following a report his office is using a controversial verification law to effectively suppress the minority vote in their race to become the state's next governor.

 

The demand from the Abrams campaign comes in response to an Associated Press report on records it obtained showing Georgia has put a hold on more than 53,000 voter registration applications -- nearly seven-in-ten of them belonging to African Americans -- because they failed to clear the state's "exact match" standard.

Under the policy, even the most minor discrepancy -- like a typo or missing letter -- between a voter's registration and their drivers license, social security or state ID cards can be flagged.

"As he has done for years, Brian Kemp is maliciously wielding the power of his office to suppress the vote for political gain and silence the voices of thousands of eligible voters -- the majority of them people of color," Abrams spokeswoman Abigail Collazo said in a statement.

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

11 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

 

Cruz is the favorite, but you have to remember:

 

1) It's October 12th, not the beginning of November.

2) If this is a wave year like 2010/2014, polls can be off by more than 7 points.

3) RCP doesn't compile all polls, nor do they give more weight to more reliable polls. 538's is around 5.5 points in Cruz's direction and compiles more data. Still a favorite, but hardly a "done at this point."

Also

Quote

A poll of young people aged 18-24 conducted by the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement and GfK found that 34 percent say they are “extremely likely” to vote this November. If that comes to pass, it would be an unusually high turnout rate for young adults in a midterm election

High youth turnout is usually great for the Dems, but Texas is fucky so who knows

[PaladinSolo]

Well he has enough money he could probably start renting buses to take 18-24 year olds to the polls, lol.

[PaladinSolo]

lol...

 

 

[Massdriver]

 

1 hour ago, SaysWho? said:

 

Cruz is the favorite, but you have to remember:

 

1) It's October 12th, not the beginning of November.

2) If this is a wave year like 2010/2014, polls can be off by more than 7 points.

3) RCP doesn't compile all polls, nor do they give more weight to more reliable polls. 538's is around 5.5 points in Cruz's direction and compiles more data. Still a favorite, but hardly a "done at this point."

 

Those are all reasonable points, but I predict Cruz will win and I have no doubt of the outcome. This is Texas.  There is a ton of enthusiasm all around me to shut Beto down. His campaign has relied upon charisma and exciting the Democratic base in Texas. It will fail to garner enough votes from independents or "moderates" in Texas since they lean Republican, and his positions will excite the GOP base to show up to shut it down and keep Texas red.  I won't be the least bit surprised if likely voter polls continue to show Cruz pulling away with a 7-9 point advantage.'

[marioandsonic]

41 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

lol...

 

 

I hope Tom Wolfe wins here.

[PaladinSolo]

34 minutes ago, marioandsonic said:

I hope Tom Wolfe wins here.

Hes crushing him in polls, everyone i've seen has Wolfe up double digits and some +20 or more.

[PaladinSolo]

1 hour ago, Massdriver said:

 

 

Those are all reasonable points, but I predict Cruz will win and I have no doubt of the outcome. This is Texas.  There is a ton of enthusiasm all around me to shut Beto down. His campaign has relied upon charisma and exciting the Democratic base in Texas. It will fail to garner enough votes from independents or "moderates" in Texas since they lean Republican, and his positions will excite the GOP base to show up to shut it down and keep Texas red.  I won't be the least bit surprised if likely voter polls continue to show Cruz pulling away with a 7-9 point advantage.'

I feel this is the type of race where polls can be really wrong, because of who is engaged in lower turn out years, in 2016 Trump won by 9% with over 3 million votes were cast for Clinton, in 2014 2.8 million were cast for Cornyn, who won by 30%.  If dem turnout was close to a presidential year, Cruz could absolutely be in trouble.

 

Just look at the VA Gov race in 2017, Northam was averaging +3 in polls, he won by +9 and dems almost took control of the state, because turnout surged in dem areas in an off year election in a way pollster really couldn't predict, doesn't mean Beto is going to win, just that it could be a lot closer than people are expecting.