The ‘full employment recession’?

[Signifyin(g)Monkey]

We live in bizarre and interesting times.

 

The labor market is still gangbusters but production is stagnant, slow, or declining depending on how you measure it.

 

The culprit, as the article mentions, is an unprecedented slump in labor productivity. (That sounds bad, but it essentially translates to workers getting paid more for less)

 

IMO, we really are seeing something akin to what happened during and immediately after World War 2. Workers have power they haven’t had since before the 70s, and the long disinflationary trend that’s defined the economy since the Volcker Recession is over.

 

Just out of curiosity, has anyone used this to their advantage?  Many of my friends have secured major raises or jumped to much higher-paying jobs since the end of the pandemic.  The capitalists among them, however, are clawing their eyes out courtesy of how expensive labor is getting.

 

I, for one, think that Western capitalism’s best shot to beat Chinese socialism is to let the workers win for awhile.  Prepare for your Big Mac to cost a lot more, though, ‘cause that may mean inflation’s here to stay.

[Bacon]

[Mr.Vic20]

I can say that lead time on even common construction materials has become excessive or flat out schedule killers. the labor force to install said material is also fairly spotty, with about a 15-30% no call, no show from trades on the average week. Workers know that they can just sign on with another firm if they get dropped because right now there is so much more work than people right now. What I see is an aggressive split in the age of my labor force. I have really young guys that get smashed and disappear for a week and I have guys that should be retired by 5-10 years still trying to chase the work. They are knowledgeable but not as fast as they use to be, obviously. I've asked a lot of these crew's foremen where the 30 and 40 year olds are and they say consistently that they have moved south to get out of "liberland." I have no data to prove those statements, but I can anecdotally say that what ever the motives, we definitely have a middle of life age gap in the work force. Its been just oodles of fun to build a building under these conditions. 

[Chadatog]

I can say in my situation all of my coworkers have benefited from the recent trends.  I was hired before 2008 and therefore had a significant lead in pay due to years of cost of living increases.  There was such a descrepency between myself and new hires that they gave me a higher job title to make it less of an issue, and to give me more responsibilities for that wage difference.  Now through job banding, we are all the same title and are much closer in pay, when they started out pre 2020 I was getting significantly more in pay and still had the higher job title.  Also this the the longest other hires have stayed in the positions since the original people I was hired with back in 2004.

[Gavin King]

Was a director at my last job and saw both ends of it. New hires were consistently needing to be hired 10-20k higher than they would have just a couple of years ago. This made it an issue with the current employees. Not good to have new folks getting paid significantly more than current employees. As a leader, you hire who you need and pay them what the market is dictating. You then, as best you can, leverage that to get the rest of your team raises. Companies will always drag their feet on raises, but if it's new hire or a good employee with an offer somewhere else, then it can happen in days. Problem is, if the employee can only get a raise by threating to leave, that's a really bad lesson to teach them (work hard enough to be valued then threaten to leave to get paid) even if they stay, and with one foot out the door, good chance they're already gone.

 

For myself, I was able to leverage different situations and able to to get 33% raise total over the last 3-4 years, plus some extra bonuses. Currently taking a break from the rat race by leveraging that money to have spring and summer off with the family. When I go back, likely will be successful getting competiting offers and negotiate a raise along with sign-on bonuses. 

 

It really is a different world out there. More jobs than there are people. For most (smart/good) companies... it's cheaper to give an extra $10-20k in salary or more in a sign-on bonus to fill a seat, then to wait possibly 1-6 months more trying to find someone else who likely will demand the same costs anyways... in the mean time, they likely will lose more employees who are carrying the load of the empty chair. Most companies want to grow, and they need bodies (normally) to do that.

[GeneticBlueprint]

In 2019 I was making 45k. Got a raise to 55k. Left that company two weeks after the raise for a 65k offer. Worked at 65k company until March of 2021 and had just received a raise to 72k. Left for 85k. Was at 85k company for three months when I got an offer for 105k. I’m still at that company and don’t plan on leaving any time soon. I’m at 107k now. I also have a side business which brings in an additional 30k/yr but nets me about 13k before taxes. So I guess I’m at about 120k. 

[outsida]

I’ve been slacking and need to leverage this economy. 

[CayceG]

My experience is in the engineering consulting world designing/constructing water and wastewater infrastructure. 

 

We've seen lead times on electrical equipment go from ~6 months pre-pandemic to 18 months now. Pumps and motors are at least a year. "Hiring headwinds" is also something we've experienced. We had to pay through the nose for new employees and people we've poached from elsewhere. Because of that, current employees howled for more (rightfully). Because of that, I got a 10% raise out of cycle. That's big money and it happened the company over. Now, we're scaling back on our offers to new employees. We're turning people down more when they ask for 120k when their peers would be at 100k currently, or whatever. But the flip side of that is that I'm hideously busy. And so is everyone else. 

 

I don't know what will happen down the road, but something has to give. We have to hire more. We just don't have the employees. And rightfully, we're recognizing that (and that there aren't a ton of people we need in the mid-level arena with 10ish years of experience). As part of our mitigation efforts, we're relaxing our immigration sponsorship restrictions too. 

 

Basically, everything MrVic is experiencing, I'm seeing as well. 

I could also have job-hopped if I wanted for bigly raises. But I like where I am and it's not solely about the money. 

[marioandsonic]

I haven't bothered to try and leverage my employer.  I'm way too lazy to try and look for a new job.

[SuperSpreader]

Don't be afraid to let things fail if there's too much on your plate. That's not a you problem that's a project management problem. ❤️

[CayceG]

7 minutes ago, SuperSpreader said:

Don't be afraid to let things fail if there's too much on your plate. That's not a you problem that's a project management problem. ❤️

 

That's precisely what happened to me a month ago! Learning this lesson was tough, but I'm in full on fuck it mode now. Doing what I can. 

[Dodger]

37 minutes ago, marioandsonic said:

I haven't bothered to try and leverage my employer.  I'm way too lazy to try and look for a new job.

Same. I really need to get my ass in gear and look for something better. But I got it pretty good at work and it keeps me lazy.

[Guest]

Real wages are receding finally. I would strike while you can if you want to get a big bump. Also, not all market segments have the same wage pressures. You may be in an industry where the gettin’ is good, or where the ship has sailed.

[legend]

Things have certainly gotten better for me financially, but I don't think that has anything to do with this and has more to do with AI being "the thing" currently.

[SuperSpreader]

33 minutes ago, CayceG said:

 

That's precisely what happened to me a month ago! Learning this lesson was tough, but I'm in full on fuck it mode now. Doing what I can. 

I have to relearn this every few months.

[Nokra]

2 hours ago, GeneticBlueprint said:

In 2019 I was making 45k. Got a raise to 55k. Left that company two weeks after the raise for a 65k offer. Worked at 65k company until March of 2021 and had just received a raise to 72k. Left for 85k. Was at 85k company for three months when I got an offer for 105k. I’m still at that company and don’t plan on leaving any time soon. I’m at 107k now. I also have a side business which brings in an additional 30k/yr but nets me about 13k before taxes. So I guess I’m at about 120k. 

 

I'm curious: What industry/job did you start off at $45k and end up at $105k? 

 

I'm also curious what your side business is for an additional $30k/year.

 

I also started off at $19/hour (i.e. about $40k/year) doing IT right out of school in 2019 because my resume wasn't great (no internships, had been a student for a long time so nothing beyond part-time student jobs either) and ended up getting a few raises and promotions to end at around $26.50/hour (i.e. $55k/year)  but after two years of barely scraping by, I fortunately met the right person to help me get an interview for a proper job in tech and now I'm just over $100k/year plus benefits for an entry-level job here, and actually using my degrees to some extent. I feel very lucky.

 

A colleague of mine is actually considering leaving our job in order to take a job in California with another semiconductor company that would possibly pay more like $120k/year, but I'm not sure that would be enough with the cost of living increase. He was looking at studio apartments there and they're $2000/month, whereas I'm paying more like $1400.  

[Mr.Vic20]

7 hours ago, SuperSpreader said:

Don't be afraid to let things fail if there's too much on your plate. That's not a you problem that's a project management problem. ❤️

But what if you are a project manager?! 

[PaladinSolo]

Left my old job about 3 years ago making ~70% more than i was, but since my old workplace has given substantial pay increases, so if i had stayed i'd still be up quite a bit, but probably just more like 30%.  Currently looks like i'll be moving to a new position, unless something happens and they don't open the position, thats initially a lateral move but ramps up ~2500 a year for 6 years till i hit the contract pay rate, but that will also be going up over that time, but will go up faster than my current job.

[Signifyin(g)Monkey]

11 hours ago, GeneticBlueprint said:

In 2019 I was making 45k. Got a raise to 55k. Left that company two weeks after the raise for a 65k offer. Worked at 65k company until March of 2021 and had just received a raise to 72k. Left for 85k. Was at 85k company for three months when I got an offer for 105k. I’m still at that company and don’t plan on leaving any time soon. I’m at 107k now. I also have a side business which brings in an additional 30k/yr but nets me about 13k before taxes. So I guess I’m at about 120k. 

Yikes.  From the server-oriented tech comments I’ve occasionally heard you make I always thought you did something back-end/full stack-ish in tech?

 

My parents did this vaulting up the income ladder all their life very effectively.  I’ve always had trouble doing it because I have the terrible habit of developing loyalty to the people and places I work for, and because I hated moving every few years as a kid and don’t want to make my kids go through it.  So I’ve often stuck around at the places I work for too long.  And I’ve been in the same general metro area ever since I got out of grad school, again to be near family.

 

Not meant as a dig in any way—you know what’s best for you and your family.  And jumping around a bit to go from 45k to 100k+ is probably the wiser path than limiting yourself and not fully leveraging the market. (Or if you’re unattached—and *especially* if you’re unattached and in the Wild West era known as your 20s—then there’s no reason not to move around and see as much of the world as you can)

[SuperSpreader]

4 hours ago, Mr.Vic20 said:

But what if you are a project manager?! 

 

We all have a role to play.

[CayceG]

4 hours ago, Mr.Vic20 said:

But what if you are a project manager?! 

 

Then you're someone who likes working at 9pm on a Saturday. #grindset

[SaysWho?]

I'm hoping to have an update in the next week or so.

[Brian]

In the last 18-24 months, my wife and I have seen our base salaries increases by 40-50%. This did require us to get new jobs with different employers as the old one’s refused to match.  We also got sign on bonuses. 
 

It definitely feels like this hot market is slowing down but, there is still a lot of opportunity in my area (NY/NJ) so if you haven’t taken advantage of it, you should. 

[stepee]

Oh yeah things have definitely improved for me financially 

[Comet]

Been in software for a decade and 2020-2022 was me nearly doubling my salary by jumping around a few times. Now I manage and hire devs and QA and product folk and the super high salaries they were asking have significantly cooled off due to the tech job market having shit the bed after the last few years. Not sure how long this cooling period will last. When Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Google have wave after wave after wave of massive layoffs, the market is flooded with job seekers.

[Kal-El814]

6 hours ago, Mr.Vic20 said:

But what if you are a project manager?! 

 

[GeneticBlueprint]

13 hours ago, Nokra said:

 

I'm curious: What industry/job did you start off at $45k and end up at $105k? 

 

I'm also curious what your side business is for an additional $30k/year.

 

I also started off at $19/hour (i.e. about $40k/year) doing IT right out of school in 2019 because my resume wasn't great (no internships, had been a student for a long time so nothing beyond part-time student jobs either) and ended up getting a few raises and promotions to end at around $26.50/hour (i.e. $55k/year)  but after two years of barely scraping by, I fortunately met the right person to help me get an interview for a proper job in tech and now I'm just over $100k/year plus benefits for an entry-level job here, and actually using my degrees to some extent. I feel very lucky.

 

A colleague of mine is actually considering leaving our job in order to take a job in California with another semiconductor company that would possibly pay more like $120k/year, but I'm not sure that would be enough with the cost of living increase. He was looking at studio apartments there and they're $2000/month, whereas I'm paying more like $1400.  

I have worked in the SaaS industry since 2015. Started in tech support and am on-the-job and self-taught with a popular cloud database and its proprietary code language (Salesforce/Apex - very similar to JS). I have a few certifications for the platform. In 2019 I was an implementation specialist for the company I started with in 2015. Being in that role they required a certification, which was extremely stupid of them because in that role you worked with a lot of admins at other companies, and admins were paid a lot more than an implementation consultant. So I came to this extremely obvious conclusion that none of my coworkers seemed to: I am telling admins how to do things at other companies. I have a certification. I am paid less than they are. Why don’t I apply for that job at a company? So that’s what I did. It took interviewing at a few places to hone what I needed to know and what they wanted to hear, but I eventually landed a job as an admin. None of my coworkers seemed to take that path. They went more to the Customer Success/Account Management route. Fuck that I hate talking to people. Also, that company went under barely a year after I left it. But anyways…
 

After doing that for only a short while I kind of had the hang of everything at the point-and-click GUI level. There’s a lot to know, so even just knowing that stuff you can probably earn in the 80k range where I live. But I started running into business problems that I could only theoretically solve in code. So I started teaching myself to do that, and received some help in my learning from some awesome coworkers and one absolutely great manager in particular. And now I primarily write code for big and complex problems with large data sets.

 

5 hours ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

Yikes.  From the server-oriented tech comments I’ve occasionally heard you make I always thought you did something back-end/full stack-ish in tech?

 

My parents did this vaulting up the income ladder all their life very effectively.  I’ve always had trouble doing it because I have the terrible habit of developing loyalty to the people and places I work for, and because I hated moving every few years as a kid and don’t want to make my kids go through it.  So I’ve often stuck around at the places I work for too long.  And I’ve been in the same general metro area ever since I got out of grad school, again to be near family.

 

Not meant as a dig in any way—you know what’s best for you and your family.  And jumping around a bit to go from 45k to 100k+ is probably the wiser path than limiting yourself and not fully leveraging the market. (Or if you’re unattached—and *especially* if you’re unattached and in the Wild West era known as your 20s—then there’s no reason not to move around and see as much of the world as you can)

Yeah I go into detail about my career over the last few years in my response to Nokra as you can see. But my switching companies really hasn’t required me to move around. Actually, one reason that I sought a career change is because I was traveling all the time. Felt like I was away from home half the month at times. Away from my wife and children, away from my hobbies. Couldn’t dedicate time to teach myself things for my career development either. So that was another major push for me to get into what I do now.

 

And I didn’t really want to jump company to company. I was extremely happy at the company where I was making 65-72k. But the money increase was too great to ignore. I’m a couple companies after that now, but I think I will stay put here for a while. It’s a profitable company in the SaaS industry which is super rare at the moment. Plus, I still have quite a bit of impostor syndrome and think I might be overpaid slightly. Haha.

[MarSolo]

I’m slowly figuring how I can leverage my art into a full time gig. I don’t want to just do commissions though because that doesn’t challenge me and it’s boring. Everyone keeps saying “open an Etsy store”, but I feel like I need to do more than that.

 

Based off my Behance profile, my sprite sheet is insanely popular compared to everything else I’ve drawn.

 

Behance

WWW.BEHANCE.NET

 

[TheLeon]

Hearing these stories, sometimes I wish I bothered to learn real skills. 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, TheLeon said:

Hearing these stories, sometimes I wish I bothered to learn real skills. 

Just say that you have.

[Firewithin]

funny my company just fucked with sales peoples commissions and a majority of them quit over the last couple months lol 

[PaladinSolo]

22 minutes ago, TheLeon said:

Hearing these stories, sometimes I wish I bothered to learn real skills. 

Knowing people has been far more beneficial to me than my skills, even if to just tell you about a position opening up.

[TheLeon]

10 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

Knowing people has been far more beneficial to me than my skills, even if to just tell you about a position opening up.

Ah yes, establishing and maintaining connections with people, that’s definitely high on my list of non-existent skills!