marioandsonic Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, Massdriver said: 2020 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight PROJECTS.FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight That Florida chart looks beautiful. How did it look for Hillary in 2016? Not trying to be negative, but I'm genuinely curious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ort Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 9 minutes ago, marioandsonic said: God, I hope Biden nails the final 2 debates. Maybe then I'll feel more cautiously optimistic. If Biden is able to win overwhelmingly, then there's little chance Trump and the GOP could dispute the results (though they'll still most certainly try). Same with Harris and tonight's debate, but I don't how much the VP debate would affect the polls. Considering the age of the candidates, I think the VP debate is more important than ever this year... Biden easily won the first debate, and yet, I was not impressed with his performance at all. He just had a very low bar to clear. Biden needs to try to do whatever it takes to not have people just shake their head and say "WORST DEBATE EVER!" and have that statement apply to both candidates. Trump was the reason it was the worst debate ever, but all of my stupid right wing friends all just said "WORST DEBATE EVER! WHAT A JOKE!" and that became the whole story. Don't let that be the story. Trump shitting the bed needs to be the story. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
69los Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 We all knew he'd lose NY in '16 but him making FL his home state and losing it this year would be hilrarious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Probably has to pull whatever he can to hold FL, where Biden is outspending him, while still having plenty left over to advertise everywhere else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeneticBlueprint Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 11 minutes ago, marioandsonic said: How did it look for Hillary in 2016? Not trying to be negative, but I'm genuinely curious. It would have looked like ~30 times Trump would win and ~70 times Clinton would win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ort Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Every democrat in the country already knows they are voting for Biden. I really think Biden needs to tweak his message to be 100% laser targeted on Republican and undecided voters who would vote for the republican candidate without pause in most years... that's your target audience. Make them not want to vote for Trump. Make them feel better about voting for you. Don't worry about your base, they are in the bag. Get these people... they are gettable this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 I don't think 538 ever had Trump as low as he is right now at 16% in 2016. The thing thats annoying me the most right now is the assumption that the polling errors are always going to go Trump's direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anathema- Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 9 minutes ago, marioandsonic said: How did it look for Hillary in 2016? Not trying to be negative, but I'm genuinely curious. Just by the numbers she was strong but not this strong; and with a shakier floor with the constant din of bad press. To say nothing of the trump voters that polling science wasn't accounting for previously but is now. The worry isn't whether the lead is real but if it's big enough to overcome fuckery, which it is and it looks durable enough. If it's not then the numbers will slip but i don't see people out there looking for a reason to vote against Joe like they did with Hillary. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 19 minutes ago, marioandsonic said: How did it look for Hillary in 2016? Not trying to be negative, but I'm genuinely curious. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/ 55% chance that Hillary wins - 45 Trump That was right before the election It was 69% chance Hillary 31 Trump on October 7th, 2016 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost_MH Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 9 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said: Probably has to pull whatever he can to hold FL, where Biden is outspending him, while still having plenty left over to advertise everywhere else magically make disappear as consulting fees to his kids. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, Anathema- said: Just by the numbers she was strong but not this strong; and with a shakier floor with the constant din of bad press. To say nothing of the trump voters that polling science wasn't accounting for previously but is now. The worry isn't whether the lead is real but if it's big enough to overcome fuckery, which it is and it looks durable enough. If it's not then the numbers will slip but i don't see people out there looking for a reason to vote against Joe like they did with Hillary. She was strong at times, and at other times it was a toss up in Florida. When you look at the 2016 graph, it's extremely volatile compared to Biden v Trump. Overall Biden's chances are far greater than Hillary, and if these numbers hold till election day, Biden will win. The uncertainty in my mind is whether these numbers will hold, but as I've mentioned before, it would take something big to change the dynamic of the race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anathema- Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Just now, Massdriver said: She was strong at times, and at other times it was a toss up in Florida. When you look at the 2016 graph, it's extremely volatile compared to Biden v Trump. Overall Biden's chances are far greater than Hillary, and if these numbers hold till election day, Biden will win. The uncertainty in my mind is whether these numbers will hold, but as I've mentioned before, it would take something big to change the dynamic of the race. Yeah, and although Clinton also needed something big to change her race things seemed far more primed to happen in 2016. To change things this time around would have to be something wholly unpredictable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marioandsonic Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 What date did the Comey emails happen? I know it was October. I'm sure Trump is begging the FBI to do something similar with Biden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 1 minute ago, marioandsonic said: What date did the Comey emails happen? I know it was October. I'm sure Trump is begging the FBI to do something similar with Biden. I read "pegging the FBI" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreePi Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Has anyone from the Trump campaign given a reason (excuse) as to why they're canceling so many ad buys in battleground states? I mean, the obvious answer is that you don't need to spend money on ads if you plan on stealing the election rather than winning, but I'm curious as to how the Trump campaign is spinning it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osxmatt Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, marioandsonic said: What date did the Comey emails happen? I know it was October. I'm sure Trump is begging the FBI to do something similar with Biden. He's trying to do that right now, with Ratcliffe releasing memos from John Brennan showing Hillary actually created the Russia narrative and briefed Obama. It's all right-wing websites, TV, and radio are talking about right now. And it's a bunch of bullshit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iculus Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, ThreePi said: Has anyone from the Trump campaign given a reason (excuse) as to why they're canceling so many ad buys in battleground states? I mean, the obvious answer is that you don't need to spend money on ads if you plan on stealing the election rather than winning, but I'm curious as to how the Trump campaign is spinning it. It's Trump so my guess is that they don't have the money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, ThreePi said: Has anyone from the Trump campaign given a reason (excuse) as to why they're canceling so many ad buys in battleground states? I mean, the obvious answer is that you don't need to spend money on ads if you plan on stealing the election rather than winning, but I'm curious as to how the Trump campaign is spinning it. The answer is they don't have enough money to compete everywhere, so they have to defend in states they 100% need, FL and PA for example, either one of those states flip back its over with, especially with WI/MI polling worse for him. If Biden for example takes AZ he can lose PA, FL, AND MI, and still win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 7, 2020 Author Share Posted October 7, 2020 50 minutes ago, Massdriver said: 2020 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight PROJECTS.FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight That Florida chart looks beautiful. YOU look beautiful 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 7, 2020 Author Share Posted October 7, 2020 14 minutes ago, marioandsonic said: What date did the Comey emails happen? I know it was October. I'm sure Trump is begging the FBI to do something similar with Biden. Oct 28. Election was November 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osxmatt Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 10 minutes ago, ThreePi said: Has anyone from the Trump campaign given a reason (excuse) as to why they're canceling so many ad buys in battleground states? I mean, the obvious answer is that you don't need to spend money on ads if you plan on stealing the election rather than winning, but I'm curious as to how the Trump campaign is spinning it. I have yet to see the Trump campaign message, but it's probably along the lines of: "American's screen preferences have been changing exponentially over the past decade, and TV is no long the medium it once was. We find voters of all shapes and stripes spending significantly more time on their smartphone, computers, and tablets. TV advertising is expensive and ineffectual. With online advertising, particularly on social media, we can target a specific message, to a specific voter, at a much larger scale, for less." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marioandsonic Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 9 minutes ago, SaysWho? said: Oct 28. Election was November 8 So we have to hope something like that doesn't happen until a week before rthe election. Got it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 1 minute ago, marioandsonic said: So we have to hope something like that doesn't happen until a week before rthe election. Got it. I'm doubtful anything would change the election, mostly because people seem well aware that Trump is 100% going to do something like this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marioandsonic Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Look, I know I have been very, very pessimistic about 2020, but I just wanted to say that you guys have been great and very supportive throughout all of this. If Biden wins on election night, I will be willing to buy somebody on here a steak dinner or something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreePi Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, marioandsonic said: Look, I know I have been very, very pessimistic about 2020, but I just wanted to say that you guys have been great and very supportive throughout all of this. If Biden wins on election night, I will be willing to buy somebody on here a steak dinner or something. I see these guys outside my local mall all the time. You can buy us all (shitty) steak dinners. Mobile meat market operating in West Michigan rated 'F' by the BBB WWW.GOOGLE.COM Twenty steaks for $30 may sound like a great deal, but some customers said the sale, at least through one business, is too good to be true. Homestead Steaks LLC, a company based out of Webb... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 7, 2020 Author Share Posted October 7, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subzwari1987 Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 13 minutes ago, marioandsonic said: Look, I know I have been very, very pessimistic about 2020, but I just wanted to say that you guys have been great and very supportive throughout all of this. If Biden wins on election night, I will be willing to buy somebody on here a steak dinner or something. I’m game as long as it isn’t well done. We should all eat rare steaks if Trump loses on Election Night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 I'm holding on to some good champaign for when he dies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 54 minutes ago, ThreePi said: Has anyone from the Trump campaign given a reason (excuse) as to why they're canceling so many ad buys in battleground states? I mean, the obvious answer is that you don't need to spend money on ads if you plan on stealing the election rather than winning, but I'm curious as to how the Trump campaign is spinning it. Can't steal the ad money if you actually spend it on ads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ort Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 I still don't think we've even seen the October surprises. I think we're looking at one HUGE new bad Trump story ever week. At the very least expect 2 or 3 more "grab em by the pussy" style footage/audio leaks. There has to be so much tape on this guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osxmatt Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, ort said: I still don't think we've even seen the October surprises. I think we're looking at one HUGE new bad Trump story ever week. At the very least expect 2 or 3 more "grab em by the pussy" level footage/audio leaks. There has to be so much tape on this guy. NYT said in their recent Trump tax returns piece, they have more to release this month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CayceG Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 The real October surprise will be when Biden gets struck by a train and we have to all pivot to Mamala Harris. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Hey @Joe - what was that link you posted to the site to split contribute to Senate campaigns? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 7, 2020 Author Share Posted October 7, 2020 56 minutes ago, marioandsonic said: So we have to hope something like that doesn't happen until a week before rthe election. Got it. I keep wondering myself. The last 10 days of 2016 were so rough. It surprises me to this day that many thought Trump had no chance even as the polls tightened considerably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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