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~* Make America Great Depression Again -- Official Thread of Corona Virus infected markets *~

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1 minute ago, sblfilms said:

It’s almost as though the stock market has little to do with the president.

 

Except last night, when the administration's press conference on Coronavirus seems to have caused the markets to go down when people got to see that the administration really does have no fucking clue how to respond.

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20 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

It’s almost as though the stock market has little to do with the president.

Politifact rating: mostly true

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48 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

It’s almost as though the stock market has little to do with the president.

Not entirely true. The president & his administration's handling of Coronavirus is having a sizable effect on the markets right now. 

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1 minute ago, chakoo said:

Not entirely true. The president & his administration's handling of Coronavirus is having a sizable effect on the markets right now. 

 

Correct, as I said in the other thread, the loss of productivity with a poorly handled pandemic could cause some serious problems. Hopefully, it doesn't come to that.

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The Imbecile's incompetence accounts for at most 50% (if that much) of the market reaction. The vast majority is the general anxiety of the impact on supply chains and profitability which would be serious concerns even with a reasonably competent administration.

 

Don't give the Buffoon more credit than he is due.

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42 minutes ago, chakoo said:

Not entirely true. The president & his administration's handling of Coronavirus is having a sizable effect on the markets right now. 

Entirely true. There is no evidence of the president having anything but the most marginal of effects on the stock market. That hasn’t magically changed in the era of Trump.

 

This week has been driven mostly by fears of a prolonged breakdown of the global supply chain. A significant amount of Chinese manufacturing is offline, and much was supposed to come back online this week...and didn’t, with no update on when. The spread of the virus in the last week has also ratcheted up fears that the already weak global economy is about to fall off a cliff.

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My retirement accounts lost about $3k this week. Not worried though (that's out of $70k) as now I'll just be buying cheaper shares with my monthly contributions. 

 

Time in market > timing market.

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25 minutes ago, SFLUFAN said:

The Imbecile's incompetence accounts for at most 50% (if that much) of the market reaction. The vast majority is the general anxiety of the impact on supply chains and profitability which would be serious concerns even with a reasonably competent administration.

 

Don't give the Buffoon more credit than he is due.

This is the correct answer but maybe less than 50%. More like 20-30% is being affected by him. Yet to say his handling is having no effect would be just wrong. This is still more then normal. 

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This was the fastest correction on record. I think we are in for an extremely bump ride. The effects from government reactions to the virus as well as traveling and consumer behavior are going to start hitting earnings based on current trends. We may get some huge up days on technical trading signals, but I think this will turn into a bear.

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1 hour ago, chakoo said:

This is the correct answer but maybe less than 50%. More like 20-30% is being affected by him. Yet to say his handling is having no effect would be just wrong. This is still more then normal. 

I’ll take 100 years of data over your gut feeling that the President played a large role here, particularly when we have factors that are historically linked to market dips. And I never said they have no effect, don’t alter my argument to fit yours better.

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12 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

I’ll take 100 years of data over your gut feeling that the President played a large role here, particularly when we have factors that are historically linked to market dips. And I never said they have no effect, don’t alter my argument to fit yours better.

I know for 100% fact that gwb pressed the "economy go bad" button in Sept 2008 and Obama pressed the "economy do ok, but not too ok" button a few months later and Trump can't figure out how buttons work.

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Just now, sblfilms said:

I’ll take 100 years of data over your gut feeling that the President played a large role here, particularly when we have factors that are historically linked to market dips. And I never said they have no effect, don’t alter my argument to fit yours better.

:facepalm:

 

Markets like predictability (good or bad) as it can be modeled into their projections and the government (which includes the president) can bring a lot of uncertainty. Their handling is having a direct effect on the markets. There was also (and pointed out by many publications) a drop directly tied into announcements made in California regarding recent infections. 

 

Also fuck off with your gut bullshit, my wife is a CFA and works for one of canada's largest banks.

 

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4 hours ago, sblfilms said:

It’s almost as though the stock market has little to do with the president.

 

The stock market does good because of Trump and bad because of everyone and everything else.

 

Law of the universe.

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16 minutes ago, chakoo said:

:facepalm:

 

Markets like predictability (good or bad) as it can be modeled into their projections and the government (which includes the president) can bring a lot of uncertainty. Their handling is having a direct effect on the markets. There was also (and pointed out by many publications) a drop directly tied into announcements made in California regarding recent infections. 

 

Also fuck off with your gut bullshit, my wife is a CFA and works for one of canada's largest banks.

 

I look forward to your actual evidence of the impact presidents have on the stock market. Amusingly you’re pointed to something that has nothing to do with the president and actually has effects on the markets.

 

Your WIFE works at a bank. That elevates your opinion how exactly?

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Just now, Ricofoley said:

Futures are at -130 right now. Doesn't seem like we've found the bottom yet.

It will be up tomorrow heading into the weekend -- there's probably a whole bunch of automated call options about to kick in.

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13 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

I look forward to your actual evidence of the impact presidents have on the stock market. Amusingly you’re pointed to something that has nothing to do with the president and actually has effects on the markets.

 

3 hours ago, chakoo said:

Not entirely true. The president & his administration's handling of Coronavirus is having a sizable effect on the markets right now. 

 

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-february-27-2020-122658989.html

'Investors took fright amid the first coronavirus case in the U.S. involving a person who didn’t travel to an infected country and didn’t knowingly interact with someone who did. Meanwhile, California’s governor said the state is monitoring more than 8,400 people who could possibly have the virus.'

 

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12 minutes ago, chakoo said:

 

 

 

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-february-27-2020-122658989.html

'Investors took fright amid the first coronavirus case in the U.S. involving a person who didn’t travel to an infected country and didn’t knowingly interact with someone who did. Meanwhile, California’s governor said the state is monitoring more than 8,400 people who could possibly have the virus.'

 


The article you linked to doesn’t make remotely the argument that you are. 

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If it is bumpy for a while, it makes me wish kavb still posted here.

 

One of the things I actually enjoyed when everything went to shit in 2008 and everyday was worse than the last was going into a thread and seeing kavb post, "I'm going to go to bed. When I wake up, everything will be okay again."

 

And then the next day things would go bad and kavb would post, "I'm going to go to bed. When I wake up, everything will be okay again."

 

And then the next day things would go bad and kavb would post, "I'm going to go to bed. When I wake up, everything will be okay again."

 

And then the next day things would go bad and kavb would post, "I'm going to go to bed. When I wake up, everything will be okay again."

 

And then the next day things would go bad and kavb would post, "I'm going to go to bed. When I wake up, everything will be okay again."

 

And then the next day things would go bad and kavb would post, "I'm going to go to bed. When I wake up, everything will be okay again."

 

And then the next day things would go bad and kavb would post, "I'm going to go to bed. When I wake up, everything will be okay again."

 

And then the next day things would go bad and kavb would post, "I'm going to go to bed. When I wake up, everything will be okay again."

 

And then the next day things would go bad and kavb would post, "I'm going to go to bed. When I wake up, everything will be okay again."

 

And then the next day things would go bad and kavb would post, "I'm going to go to bed. When I wake up, everything will be okay again."

 

And then the next day things would go bad and kavb would post, "I'm going to go to bed. When I wake up, everything will be okay again."

 

And then the next day things would go bad and kavb would post, "I'm going to go to bed. When I wake up, everything will be okay again."

 

And then the next day things would go bad and kavb would post, "I'm going to go to bed. When I wake up, everything will be okay again."

 

And then the next day things would go bad and kavb would post, "I'm going to go to bed. When I wake up, everything will be okay again."

 

And then the next day things would go bad and kavb would post, "I'm going to go to bed. When I wake up, everything will be okay again."

 

And then the next day things would go bad and kavb would post, "I'm going to go to bed. When I wake up, everything will be okay again."

 

 

 

 

 

Those were good days.

 

giphy.gif

 

@TheLeon

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I think the prevailing question is whether the ‘exogenous’ shock of the coronavirus’ effect on global supply chains ends up exposing underlying weaknesses in how major companies (or a large number of mid-sized companies) have been conducting business/investing during the boom times.
 

If the fundamentals look strong outside of what’s being directly  effected by the spread of the virus, things will bounce back once it’s been contained.  But long expansions tend to paper over structural weaknesses in the economy—if those show up, we might be in for a larger downturn, even after the panic over the virus is over.

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10 hours ago, sblfilms said:

I’ll take 100 years of data over your gut feeling that the President played a large role here, particularly when we have factors that are historically linked to market dips. And I never said they have no effect, don’t alter my argument to fit yours better.

 

I think in general you are correct. However, I think we can all agree that it is possible for a President to have a strong effect on the stock market. An example by hyperbole would be a President issuing an executive order to round up and kill all financial corp executives. Sure, it might not be carried out, but there would be panic. So the question isn't if a President can have an effect, but how much of an effect can they have? Obviously Trump can have an effect based on how he handles the virus, even if it is likely small. But he could also hypothetically have a larger effect if he makes the spread of it much worse, further disrupting the economy. 

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If anything, the cause/effect of the stock market and this president shows that the stock market changes are more likely to have Trump make poor decisions (downplay the coronavirus spreading, poor preparedness, and controlling CDC/HHS statements to name a few) than have the stock market react significantly to only what Trump does/says.

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2 hours ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

I think the prevailing question is whether the ‘exogenous’ shock of the coronavirus’ effect on global supply chains ends up exposing underlying weaknesses in how major companies (or a large number of mid-sized companies) have been conducting business/investing during the boom times.
 

If the fundamentals look strong outside of what’s being directly  effected by the spread of the virus, things will bounce back once it’s been contained.  But long expansions tend to paper over structural weaknesses in the economy—if those show up, we might be in for a larger downturn, even after the panic over the virus is over.

 

A lot of companies have been trying to suck up to China over the last decade or so, whether it be for foreign labor or as consumers for your products.  Maybe this will turn out to be a cautionary tale of not putting all of your eggs in one basket?

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17 minutes ago, SFLUFAN said:

I'm gonna be a total jerk and point out that none of the losses in the past few days even crack the Top 20 in terms of % :p

 

Not if I edit the Wikipedia page. :] 

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