Jason Posted March 9, 2020 Author Share Posted March 9, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 The Coronavirus Recession Will Be Unusually Difficult to Fight (The Atlantic) Quote Washington and other governments around the world have two main levers to help their economies from tipping into free fall: fiscal policy and monetary policy. The problem is that both of those levers work primarily on the demand side of the economy, and cannot readily fix the bottlenecks the virus is causing. The Federal Reserve has already announced one surprise rate cut. But how is a somewhat-lower interest rate going to help an American assembly business that cannot get parts out of China? “The benefits of lower interest rates at this stage are questionable with a substantial part of the economic shock due to supply-chain disruptions and official restrictions on economic activity,” argues Brian Coulton, the chief economist at Fitch Ratings. Moreover, the Fed and other central banks have already pushed interest rates to historic lows; they are running out of their strongest ammunition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Lower rates are also going to cause housing prices to go up...so good luck, millenials! People will lose their jobs and houses will get more expensive. Boomers will be insulated (to a greater degree). Well, except from the virus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said: Well, except from the virus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commodore D Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said: Lower rates are also going to cause housing prices to go up...so good luck, millenials! People will lose their jobs and houses will get more expensive. Boomers will be insulated (to a greater degree). Well, except from the virus. Was looking at another investment property a few weeks ago. It was garbage with a good base, I’d mostly gut it. $15k is all I think it is worth, went for $45k in this market. It’s been pushing my plan to retire at 40 out some years. 2019 and 2020 looked like good years to acquire at least five properties, might end up with only an additional two by the end of the year. On the good side, my first has quadrupled in value; if I didn’t like the tenet (I think they’ll be around for a decade at least), I’d put it on the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chakoo Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Man if things keep up there is a possible chance we end out the day with a 2,000 point drop. There was a small recovery this morning after trading resumed but since noon it's been on a continued trend downwards. -edit- Hah. I should have refreshed my browser before posting. We'll be there by 2pm. -edit 2- What a tease. It took till 2:02 and it's still falling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amazatron Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 This thread title is child's play. MAGA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 15 minutes ago, chakoo said: Man if things keep up there is a possible chance we end out the day with a 2,000 point drop. There was a small recovery this morning after trading resumed but since noon it's been on a continued trend downwards. -edit- Hah. I should have refreshed my browser before posting. We'll be there by 2pm. -edit 2- What a tease. It took till 2:02 and it's still falling. Just crossed 2,000. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osxmatt Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Dow is down over -8%. Not counting Black Monday, it’s the biggest single day percentage loss in 88 years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chakoo Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: Just crossed 2,000. See my '-edit 2-' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littleronin Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 I feel like these last couple of week the markets have needed a carnival barker, "Up and down it games where it stops nobody knows. Guess the number and win a prize for you sweetie young man." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foosh Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said: Lower rates are also going to cause housing prices to go up...so good luck, millenials! People will lose their jobs and houses will get more expensive. Boomers will be insulated (to a greater degree). Well, except from the virus. I would argue now is probably the worst time to go wander around random people's houses to buy or allow random strangers to your house to sell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osxmatt Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 I am very smart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kal-El814 Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, osxmatt said: HURRRRRRRRRR HUIRR HURRRRRRRR HURRR HIRRRRRRRR this fucking guy I swear to god 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anathema- Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 All the depth of a sophomore. A high school sophomore. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarSolo Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Ben should know he shouldn’t reach so much, he’ll strain his small stature. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 I do want to emphasize that there really is no sense of "panic" in this selling. All in all, it's a rather "orderly" decline. This is in sharp contrast in 2008 where the selling was very much panic-driven. In 2008, there was a very real fear that the entire global financial system would collapse as liquidity dried up. That's simply not the case here - there are no significant liquidity concerns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted March 9, 2020 Author Share Posted March 9, 2020 27 minutes ago, osxmatt said: I am very smart. Republicans consider him the intellectual of the group. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.Vic20 Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, SFLUFAN said: I do want to emphasize that there really is no sense of "panic" in this selling. All in all, it's a rather "orderly" decline. This is in sharp contrast in 2008 where the selling was very much panic-driven. In 2008, there was a very real fear that the entire global financial system would collapse as liquidity dried up. That's simply not the case here - there are no significant liquidity concerns. Well now, where is all the drama and hand wringing in this reasonable analyse?! DO YOU EVEN INTERNET BRO?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 17 minutes ago, SFLUFAN said: I do want to emphasize that there really is no sense of "panic" in this selling. All in all, it's a rather "orderly" decline. This is in sharp contrast in 2008 where the selling was very much panic-driven. In 2008, there was a very real fear that the entire global financial system would collapse as liquidity dried up. That's simply not the case here - there are no significant liquidity concerns. To expand, the sell off is happening significantly in areas most likely to be affected by supply side concerns. There is a logic to it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 And the S&P 500 ends the day 7.63% down. If anyone has extra cash, I think it's time to start positioning yourself. I wouldn't be surprised if it dropped another 10-15%, but I'm looking for around ~8% or so to make another move in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amazatron Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Since it’s impossible to time this kind of volatile market, if you’re looking to buy, scale into positions. So don’t buy all right away and add more if it continues to fall. But mostly just be able to stomach the losses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 No matter where the bottom ends up, now is a good time to buy if you’ve got cash. You’ll do well in 18-24 months on a move made this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chakoo Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Massdriver said: And the S&P 500 ends the day 7.63% down. If anyone has extra cash, I think it's time to start positioning yourself. I wouldn't be surprised if it dropped another 10-15%, but I'm looking for around ~8% or so to make another move in. If someone is looking for long term, then yep just don't buy it all at once. Spread it out over time when the market tanks for a day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 Glad I blew all my cash on buying a house lol. Might need to see if my rate can get any lower before close Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, chakoo said: If someone is looking for long term, then yep just don't buy it all at once. Spread it out over time when the market tanks for a day. 9 minutes ago, Amazatron said: Since it’s impossible to time this kind of volatile market, if you’re looking to buy, scale into positions. So don’t buy all right away and add more if it continues to fall. But mostly just be able to stomach the losses. All good advice. I have bought on 3 separate down days now without regret. As a test to my psychology, I am holding my 95% equity portfolio with no urge to sell, just to buy. I'm thinking very long-term with my position. This is becoming an opportunity, it just sucks it has to be from a virus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeneticBlueprint Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Glad I blew all my cash on buying a house lol. Might need to see if my rate can get any lower before close It's a better investment anyways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 11 minutes ago, GeneticBlueprint said: It's a better investment anyways. I’ve said for a decade now that a house is a terrible investment if it’s for you to live in. It just turns out it’s one of the few “investments” middle class folks can make these days. It’s nearly impossible realize any gain because whenever you sell it you now need to replace the housing at the market rate that set your appreciated value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeneticBlueprint Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, sblfilms said: I’ve said for a decade now that a house is a terrible investment if it’s for you to live in. It just turns out it’s one of the few “investments” middle class folks can make these days. It’s nearly impossible realize any gain because whenever you sell it you now need to replace the housing at the market rate that set your appreciated value. True, but most people downsize significantly at retirement when all the kids are out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 9 minutes ago, GeneticBlueprint said: True, but most people downsize significantly at retirement when all the kids are out. Downsizing doesn’t save money. Lots of good data on that! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 I was also going to mention that there are opportunities with better valuations with international equity, and since they've been dropping with the U.S. at similar rates, the case remains. Specifically, Vanguard projected higher expected rate of returns from developed market indexes in the global outlook from Dec.2019. Quote Alongside the decline in corporate earnings growth, which is projected to fall from its 5.8% historical average annual rate to a rate close to 5%, our expected return outlook for U.S. equity over the next decade is centered in the modest 3.5%–5.5% range. Although this improves upon the 3%–5% returns forecast last year, it still pales in comparison with the 10.6% annualized return generated over the last 30 years. With respect to equity styles and sizes, value looks to be more favorable than growth and small size more favorable than large because of more attractive valuations. From a U.S. investor’s perspective, the expected return outlook for non-U.S. equity markets is in the 6.5%–8.5% range, higher than that of U.S. equity (see Figure II-4a and Figure II-4b), thanks to relatively more reasonable valuations. This higher return outlook for non-U.S. equity markets underscores the benefits of global equity... https://pressroom.vanguard.com/nonindexed/Vanguard_Global_Economic_Market_Outlook_2020.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marioandsonic Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 I'd invest if I had any spare money to, but I dont. I dont even know where to start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vaxick Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 I'd drop some money on stocks, but I have not the slightest clue what to buy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeneticBlueprint Posted March 9, 2020 Share Posted March 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, vaxick said: I'd drop some money on stocks, but I have not the slightest clue what to buy. Mutual funds and ETFs are the go-to for beginning investors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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