Movies Update: Warner's HBO Max "day and date" streaming decision encountering major blowback from Hollywood talent

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

4 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

I don't think content creation will be affected much... in fact there will probably be MORE as the streamers start to rely more on exclusive, subscription driving shows and films. Its the wild west out there right now.

 

The volume of content may not be impacted, but I can't imagine that the "scope/scale" of the content won't be.

[skillzdadirecta]

Just now, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

The volume of content may not be impacted, but I can't imagine that the "scope/scale" of the content won't be.

It might be to a degree... but I doubt it. Look at shows like Game of Thrones and The Mandorian which have NO theatrical runs to recoup their budgets. We will continue to see high concept, big budget product... especially as long as the international cinema markets are still there to rake in revenue. They've become increasingly important anyway. So many films that tank, or do ok here go on to become profitable overseas. I suspect that will still be the case.

[skillzdadirecta]

AMC is NOT happy about thsi decision

 

AMC Theatres Says Warner Bros.' Streaming Plan Will "Sacrifice" Studio Profits | Hollywood Reporter

WWW.HOLLYWOODREPORTER.COM

 

[Massdriver]

I'm rooting for the movie theatres on this even though I'm a huge fan of streaming. I'm not confident large 200 million dollar films will be made without a robust theatre industry. 

 

I bet Cinemark stock (CNK) at these prices will probably double within 18 months.

[Jason]

12 minutes ago, Massdriver said:

I'm rooting for the movie theatres on this even though I'm a huge fan of streaming. I'm not confident large 200 million dollar films will be made without a robust theatre industry. 

 

I bet Cinemark stock (CNK) at these prices will probably double within 18 months.

 

Apparently it was a little over half its current price a month ago.

[Massdriver]

18 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

Apparently it was a little over half its current price a month ago.

Yes, but if you look at the whole pandemic, you'll see it has bounced in a range that includes the current prices. A month ago, it gained a lot in just a few trading days when positive vaccine news started coming in. The question is does it have more room to run up? That depends on vaccine distribution, public comfort going to the movies, and what studios decide to do. 

 

Anyways I'm not suggesting anyone put their life savings in a movie theatre stock. It's extremely risky. However, it's probably not a bad bet that things aren't as bad as they seem for CNK. I can't speak for AMC, which is leveraged more dangerously than Cinemark. Cinemark has about 1 year of cash on hand to burn at the current rate. AMC is pretty much completely out of cash.

 

@Jason, what are your thoughts? Do you think movie theaters are coming back?

[TheLeon]

I won’t pretend to know anything about the potential economic ramifications of this, but I hope theaters will stick around in some capacity. Even without crowds (I almost always go on off days/hours) , I just love the theater experience when it comes to seeing a movie for the first time. 

But also, I like having new movies included in a streaming service I already subscribe to, so 

[Reputator]

1 hour ago, skillzdadirecta said:

AMC is NOT happy about thsi decision

 

AMC Theatres Says Warner Bros.' Streaming Plan Will "Sacrifice" Studio Profits | Hollywood Reporter

WWW.HOLLYWOODREPORTER.COM

 

 

They're not wrong. Apparently it's hard to make streaming services profitable. Movies always relied on multiple revenue streams, and you know, a billion dollars or more for big films is a lot of money to walk away from.

[Remarkableriots]

3 hours ago, skillzdadirecta said:

AMC is NOT happy about thsi decision

 

AMC Theatres Says Warner Bros.' Streaming Plan Will "Sacrifice" Studio Profits | Hollywood Reporter

WWW.HOLLYWOODREPORTER.COM

 

Isn't AMC out of money anyways so who cares?

[Remarkableriots]

3 hours ago, Massdriver said:

I'm rooting for the movie theatres on this even though I'm a huge fan of streaming. I'm not confident large 200 million dollar films will be made without a robust theatre industry. 

 

I bet Cinemark stock (CNK) at these prices will probably double within 18 months.

Movie theaters could vanish and I wouldn't give a shit.

[SimpleG]

7 hours ago, skillzdadirecta said:

AMC is NOT happy about thsi decision

 

AMC Theatres Says Warner Bros.' Streaming Plan Will "Sacrifice" Studio Profits | Hollywood Reporter

WWW.HOLLYWOODREPORTER.COM

 

You guys are more in the know but does AMC really have any power here? Its a dying company dragging a corpse of a business behind it 

[SimpleG]

@skillzdadirecta

Not sure if you can answer this but could movies be filmed in the same Mando is? It seems like a cheaper alternative to whats being done but maybe I am way off base this

[Spork3245]

12 hours ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

I, for one, will continue to watch the blockbuster, tentpole fillms in which I have an interest (which to be fair are relatively few and far between) at the cinema while wearing a mask.

Unless concessions are closed at your local (indoor) movie theater, I’d argue going to the movies is just as dangerous as indoor dining. The only reason spikes probably aren’t linked to movie theaters is because attendance is virtually non-existent compared to indoor dining.

[Mercury33]

The sheer amount of money I’m prepared to dump back into theaters when they get back to normal is staggering lol

[Keyser_Soze]

17 hours ago, Chris- said:

If @sblfilms were still around (you assholes), I think he'd say the same thing: this really won't impact theaters too much in the long run. There will definitely be some contraction given how hilariously leveraged some of the big chains are, but most people don't go out for the movies, they go out for the sake of going out.

 

Spoilers for what he has to say

 

[Jason]

13 hours ago, Massdriver said:

@Jason, what are your thoughts? Do you think movie theaters are coming back?

 

It's not something I've thought a ton about. Fauci was recently saying Broadway could potentially reopen by fall 2021 so presumably movie theaters could too. So if Cinemark has cash on hand to ride out another 12 months then it sounds like they probably have more than enough money to ride things out. Of course if we're still at a point at the end of 2021 where Broadway and movie theaters can't reopen then there's likely going to be bigger structural issues in the economy that would mean not a lot of people could afford to go to see a movie regardless of whether they're able to survive.

 

I guess I'm also inclined to agree with what I've seen other people on here say, I think in other threads, about some bigger chains dying and smaller markets potentially getting left without movie theaters for a while before entering a period of a bunch of smaller independent theaters/small chains popping up to fill the void.

[Amazatron]

AMC stock (and other theater stocks) have been amazing to swing trade during the pandemic. Buy them up when they crater and everyone is all doom and gloom, sell when they pop back up. Rinse and repeat. If these tank another 10-20%, I'll jump back in.

[Fizzzzle]

13 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

 

 

I guess I'm also inclined to agree with what I've seen other people on here say, I think in other threads, about some bigger chains dying and smaller markets potentially getting left without movie theaters for a while before entering a period of a bunch of smaller independent theaters/small chains popping up to fill the void.

In the Portland area, with the Regal locations closing, I can now think of like 7 first-run multiplexes within an hours' drive. Those 7 theaters now support nearly 3 million people lol.

[TwinIon]

7 hours ago, SimpleG said:

You guys are more in the know but does AMC really have any power here? Its a dying company dragging a corpse of a business behind it 

The leverage they have is in their ability to not show movies. If we think back to April when NBCUuniversal said they were considering going streaming only for Trolls World Tour, AMC threatened to stop showing any NBCU films. Warner does intend to put these movies in theaters, but clearly they're not banking on significant box office grosses, so AMC threatening to not show these films doesn't seem like much of a threat.

[skillzdadirecta]

7 hours ago, SimpleG said:

@skillzdadirecta

Not sure if you can answer this but could movies be filmed in the same Mando is? It seems like a cheaper alternative to whats being done but maybe I am way off base this

Mandolorian is not a cheap show by any means. Each episode probably costs as much as a low to mid budget movie.

 

13 hours ago, Reputator said:

 

They're not wrong. Apparently it's hard to make streaming services profitable. Movies always relied on multiple revenue streams, and you know, a billion dollars or more for big films is a lot of money to walk away from.

Studios have been trying to shorten the theatrical window to streaming and cable for awhile now. Studios have to share theatrical profits with distribution chains, not to mention the costs they incur for marketing and prints... also there's a TON of product that studios produce that NEVER sees theatrical release. My point is the studios have been prepared for a world where theatrical distribution is less important to their bottom lines. The theater chains are really in a weak position here.

[TwinIon]

Something else worth remembering when it comes to the survival of theater chains, is that it was only in August that the Paramount Consent Decrees of 1948 were overturned, allowing studios to own movie theaters.

 

 

 

While profits might suffer for a year or two, I don't think anyone suspects that Disney or Warner AT&T or Amazon or Comcast Universal will go under. If there was ever a time for them to (purposefully or not) starve the theater chains and scoop them up on the cheap, it would be this coming year.

 

 

[skillzdadirecta]

2 minutes ago, TwinIon said:

Something else worth remembering when it comes to the survival of theater chains, is that it was only in August that the Paramount Consent Decrees of 1948 were overturned, allowing studios to own movie theaters.

 

 

 

While profits might suffer for a year or two, I don't think anyone suspects that Disney or Warner AT&T or Amazon or Comcast Universal will go under. If there was ever a time for them to (purposefully or not) starve the theater chains and scoop them up on the cheap, it would be this coming year.

 

 

This is a great point and I forgot about this... I can totally see them taking stakes in some of these chains.

[silentbob]

My first movie theatre name was Famous Players in Canada, and they were own by Viacom. Hell, the higher end theatres were named Paramount Famous Players with the logo included. Then we were sold to Cineplex and all went to shit after that for fun/free activities for the cast. I miss them not owning theatre chains 

[TwinIon]

7 hours ago, SimpleG said:

Not sure if you can answer this but could movies be filmed in the same Mando is? It seems like a cheaper alternative to whats being done but maybe I am way off base this

 

The figure for Season 1 was ~$15M per episode. Given film length and what not, you could reasonably compare that to the ~$40M budget for Knives out. Of course, they had to invent that whole rig for the Mandalorian, and they spend a lot on stuff outside that video dome (or whatever they call it). However, they also had the benefit of ILM being in house and they could build that rig with the knowledge they'd use it for multiple seasons worth of filming.

 

Certainly movies could be filmed that way, but right now I would say it's unclear if doing it that way would save anyone else any money. If Disney wanted to use it for other stuff, it might lower costs.

 

If it becomes something others adopt and other studios build them out, future films could conceivably be made slightly cheaper with it, but I don't think that it's a game changer when it comes to budgeting.  

[skillzdadirecta]

18 minutes ago, TwinIon said:

 

The figure for Season 1 was ~$15M per episode. Given film length and what not, you could reasonably compare that to the ~$40M budget for Knives out. Of course, they had to invent that whole rig for the Mandalorian, and they spend a lot on stuff outside that video dome (or whatever they call it). However, they also had the benefit of ILM being in house and they could build that rig with the knowledge they'd use it for multiple seasons worth of filming.

 

Certainly movies could be filmed that way, but right now I would say it's unclear if doing it that way would save anyone else any money. If Disney wanted to use it for other stuff, it might lower costs.

 

If it becomes something others adopt and other studios build them out, future films could conceivably be made slightly cheaper with it, but I don't think that it's a game changer when it comes to budgeting.  

Actually the first season of Mando came in at 12.5 mil an episode... they bumped it up to 15 mil per ep for season 2.  Allegedly the Marvel shows for Disney+ are coming in at 25 Mil per episode  and Apple is spending even more on some of their shows... shit is insane.

[Firewithin]

this is cool.  looking forward to these movies on Max next year now.

 

at least with the death of theaters i can be glad my last experience would have been Endgame.

[Reputator]

3 hours ago, TwinIon said:

Something else worth remembering when it comes to the survival of theater chains, is that it was only in August that the Paramount Consent Decrees of 1948 were overturned, allowing studios to own movie theaters.

 

 

 

While profits might suffer for a year or two, I don't think anyone suspects that Disney or Warner AT&T or Amazon or Comcast Universal will go under. If there was ever a time for them to (purposefully or not) starve the theater chains and scoop them up on the cheap, it would be this coming year.

 

That makes too much sense for me to argue against! 

[skillzdadirecta]

AT&T Boss John Stankey Says Movie Theaters Will Always “Have A Role In Society”, But Streaming “Horse Left The Barn”

DEADLINE.COM

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AT&T CEO John Stankey addressed the WarnerMedia/HBO Max streaming shocker on Friday, saying movie theaters will always "have a role." 

 

[TwinIon]

It was announced in October, but Disney is doing a streaming focused "Investor Day" on December 10th. I somehow doubt they'll follow suit with a whole calendar year's worth of films, but I wouldn't be surprised if they put a couple big movies on Disney+.

[Kal-El814]

45 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

AT&T Boss John Stankey Says Movie Theaters Will Always “Have A Role In Society”, But Streaming “Horse Left The Barn”

DEADLINE.COM

---

AT&T CEO John Stankey addressed the WarnerMedia/HBO Max streaming shocker on Friday, saying movie theaters will always "have a role." 

 

 

As long as parents want access a dark room outside their house where they can be near their entertained kids as they hide the salt of their tears in a popcorn bucket, move theaters will be around.

[SimpleG]

5 hours ago, skillzdadirecta said:

Mandolorian is not a cheap show by any means. Each episode probably costs as much as a low to mid budget movie.

 

Studios have been trying to shorten the theatrical window to streaming and cable for awhile now. Studios have to share theatrical profits with distribution chains, not to mention the costs they incur for marketing and prints... also there's a TON of product that studios produce that NEVER sees theatrical release. My point is the studios have been prepared for a world where theatrical distribution is less important to their bottom lines. The theater chains are really in a weak position here.

 

5 hours ago, TwinIon said:

 

The figure for Season 1 was ~$15M per episode. Given film length and what not, you could reasonably compare that to the ~$40M budget for Knives out. Of course, they had to invent that whole rig for the Mandalorian, and they spend a lot on stuff outside that video dome (or whatever they call it). However, they also had the benefit of ILM being in house and they could build that rig with the knowledge they'd use it for multiple seasons worth of filming.

 

Certainly movies could be filmed that way, but right now I would say it's unclear if doing it that way would save anyone else any money. If Disney wanted to use it for other stuff, it might lower costs.

 

If it becomes something others adopt and other studios build them out, future films could conceivably be made slightly cheaper with it, but I don't think that it's a game changer when it comes to budgeting.  

 

5 hours ago, skillzdadirecta said:

Actually the first season of Mando came in at 12.5 mil an episode... they bumped it up to 15 mil per ep for season 2.  Allegedly the Marvel shows for Disney+ are coming in at 25 Mil per episode  and Apple is spending even more on some of their shows... shit is insane.

Shows how little I know, I would have guessed a few million episode.

[Mercury33]

Yeah Theaters will never die because they offer something, no matter how much money you spend, you can’t recreate at home. They’re def about to change though. If that means we can more smaller independent theaters or more Alamo Draft House type theaters, sign me up. 

[Jason]

2 minutes ago, Mercury33 said:

Yeah Theaters will never die because they offer something, no matter how much money you spend, you can’t recreate at home. They’re def about to change though. If that means we can more smaller independent theaters or more Alamo Draft House type theaters, sign me up. 

 

I'd love to see a resurgence of real IMAX screens, instead of all the slightly-bigger LieMAX screens that have been built the last 10-15 years. That's certainly a clear value-add over what you're getting at home.

 

[CitizenVectron]

So...turns out Legendary (who funded 75% of Dune, amongst other things) wasn't consulted on this by WB, and may sue to stop the move to HBO Max:

 

Bart & Fleming: While WGA, CAA & WME Fight In Court, Streamers Rewrite Movie Paydays; Will Legendary Challenge WarnerMedia Over ‘Dune’ & Godzilla Vs. Kong’ HBO Max Move?

DEADLINE.COM

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While WGA, CAA & WME Fight In Court, Streamers Rewrite movie payday Rules; Will Legendary Challenge Over 'Dune' & Godzilla Vs. Kong?'

 

Apparently Netflix offered up to $250 million to get Godzilla, but WB turned it down. This will be interesting...I wonder how much say Legendary has on how and where the movies are screened?

[TwinIon]

2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

So...turns out Legendary (who funded 75% of Dune, amongst other things) wasn't consulted on this by WB, and may sue to stop the move to HBO Max:

 

Bart & Fleming: While WGA, CAA & WME Fight In Court, Streamers Rewrite Movie Paydays; Will Legendary Challenge WarnerMedia Over ‘Dune’ & Godzilla Vs. Kong’ HBO Max Move?

DEADLINE.COM

---

While WGA, CAA & WME Fight In Court, Streamers Rewrite movie payday Rules; Will Legendary Challenge Over 'Dune' & Godzilla Vs. Kong?'

 

Apparently Netflix offered up to $250 million to get Godzilla, but WB turned it down. This will be interesting...I wonder how much say Legendary has on how and where the movies are screened?

 

Yeah, this is something that I didn't consider when I was thinking about the tech company like spending that Warner is doing here. It's one thing to decide that you will take a bath on a whole year's worth of films in order to bolster your streaming service. It's quite another to be an unwitting partner in that venture. Legendary doesn't make any more money if this solidifies HBO Max as a top tier streaming service (nor do any actors/filmmakers that might have made deals for backend points). 

 

It'll be interesting to see just how much leverage Legendary has. I can kind of imagine that they wouldn't have any specific language dictating distribution schemes, if only out of the assumption from the before times that Warner would always want to maximize theater profits.

 

 

As an aside, I'm conflicted as to if going directly to streaming is actually a good thing for Dune. I have high hopes for the film, but I also feel like there was a real chance of it turning out Blade Runner 2049 like numbers ($300M WW), which might sink the planned spin-off shows and possibly even the sequel(s). Maybe going streaming first will allow it to establish an audience that could then be built on for the follow up material.