Microsoft "Officially Welcoming Bethesda to Team Xbox"

[TwinIon]

Other than Fallout/Starfield/Elder Scrolls (of which we might get 1-3 games per generation), there really isn't a single game that this deal effects that I'm that interested in.

 

I never got into the recent Doom games, wasn't a huge fan of Prey, Dishonored, or Wolfenstein. Deathloop and Ghostwire look interesting, but both feel like they could be 6/10 as easily as 8 or 9s, and both are still going to PS5/PC.

 

Game sales are so opaque these days, especially with a private company, it's hard to say how well any of these things sell. Maybe in 7 years this deal will have provided a couple AAA open world RPGs and little else, or maybe these devs and IPs will end up having contributed meaningfully to the Gamepass library.

[Brian]

5 minutes ago, Emperor Diocletian II said:

 

I watched that earlier today and came to the conclusion that Kyle was DEFINITELY the "brains" of that operation.

 

The "Microsoft should buy BioWare" comment earned a guffaw from me.

They definitely miss his view points but Brad is a weak member of the group. He is hard to listen to whenever speaks about anything. 

[crispy4000]

14 minutes ago, JPDunks4 said:

I think I fell out of love with the Final Fantasy series with all the damn confusing numbering.  I didn't know what was what, and never owned Sony consoles really so just moved on without worrying about them.

 

The numbering really isn't confusing though.  All numbered Final Fantasies are self-contained games you don't need to play any others to understand.  Expect when there's a dash-number (ie: FFXIII-2), then it's a direct sequel to whatever the original game was.

The only real confusing bit is that FFXI and FFXIV are MMOs.  There's also the issue of numbering in the 16-bit era, due some games not getting localized back when, but that's all been rectified with re-releases.

[crispy4000]

16 minutes ago, Emperor Diocletian II said:

 

I watched that earlier today and came to the conclusion that Kyle was DEFINITELY the "brains" of that operation.

 

If anything, Kyle just brought out more dumb comments because he asked so many menial questions.

 

He's still fun though, I enjoyed him there.

[Keyser_Soze]

[Keyser_Soze]

51 minutes ago, TwinIon said:

Other than Fallout/Starfield/Elder Scrolls (of which we might get 1-3 games per generation), there really isn't a single game that this deal effects that I'm that interested in.

 

I never got into the recent Doom games, wasn't a huge fan of Prey, Dishonored, or Wolfenstein. Deathloop and Ghostwire look interesting, but both feel like they could be 6/10 as easily as 8 or 9s, and both are still going to PS5/PC.

 

It's ok to admit you have bad taste in games.

[ShreddieMercury]

Prey, Dishonored 2, and Doom are on the shortlist of best games this generation, and other stuff like Wolfenstein and Evil Within 2 are similarly excellent if not quite top-tier.  Having games of this caliber as exclusives/day-one for Gamepass Subscribers is monumental for MS.

[Dodger]

No matter how many games Xbox gets, it always has no games or no games anyone is interested in. Amazing how that works. 

[stepee]

8 minutes ago, Dodger said:

No matter how many games Xbox gets, it always has no games or no games anyone is interested in. Amazing how that works. 

 

I mean, the problem is Xbox hasn’t been releasing a lot of great games this gen. Next gen should be much much better for them in this regard, but it’s going to be a couple years in still until we really see the fruits of all this studio buildup. 

 

I want MS to throw their money into a bunch of cool interesting stuff, but I need to wait for these games to actually come out before giving them credit here.

[crispy4000]

43 minutes ago, ShreddieMercuryRising said:

Prey, Dishonored 2, and Doom are on the shortlist of best games this generation, and other stuff like Wolfenstein and Evil Within 2 are similarly excellent if not quite top-tier.  Having games of this caliber as exclusives/day-one for Gamepass Subscribers is monumental for MS.

 

I also appreciated Bethesda's modest approach to DLC this generation.  All of those games painted Bethesda as one of the 'good guys' in that too.

[crispy4000]

6 minutes ago, stepee said:

I mean, the problem is Xbox hasn’t been releasing a lot of great games this gen. Next gen should be much much better for them in this regard, but it’s going to be a couple years in still until we really see the fruits of all this studio buildup.

 

But also that's a benefit of buying a large publisher straight up.  It's going to take them no longer than the rest of the industry at large to get with it.

[Brian]

Sega is next boys!

 

Errr why is the new controller the exact Sega blue? #xbox #XboxSeriesX @SEGA pic.twitter.com/3yxumhDetD

— アレツクス (@crazyalex360) September 22, 2020

[Brian]

Yakuza is a XSX exclusive

 

[SaysWho?]

42 minutes ago, Dodger said:

No matter how many games Xbox gets, it always has no games or no games anyone is interested in. Amazing how that works. 

 

Unlike much of the thread, Twinion's probably not trolling and seems to really not be interested in it. You're on my psn friends list so you're more than welcome to look at my trophy list to see how many games Bethesda released I played this gen.

 

Guess the timing is bad for me since next gen they had three things I was interested in, two of which were rather big.

[Dodger]

It's the internet, I see people acting like most of Sony's first party games are no big deal either.

 

I understand not everyone plays everything, but everyone has played Skyrim at some point, Fallout isn't what it used to be but most have fond memories of New Vegas, Doom 2016 was one of the best FPS games of this gen, the Wolfenstein games have been good, Prey was a gem, Dishonored is a great series and I believe is one of our glorious leaders @Emperor Diocletian II favorites, Evil Within was generally well received. 

 

There's a lot of stuff in there to be excited about going forward. Shit I'm excited that maybe Obsidian and InXile can help out with Fallout 5 and return it to it's former glory. 

 

Did you play Ruiner yet? I need someone to talk about the ending with. This has nothing to do with this thread, I think it was on PS4 too. 

[SaysWho?]

12 minutes ago, Dodger said:

It's the internet, I see people acting like most of Sony's first party games are no big deal either.

 

I understand not everyone plays everything, but everyone has played Skyrim at some point, Fallout isn't what it used to be but most have fond memories of New Vegas, Doom 2016 was one of the best FPS games of this gen, the Wolfenstein games have been good, Prey was a gem, Dishonored is a great series and I believe is one of our glorious leaders @Emperor Diocletian II favorites, Evil Within was generally well received. 

 

There's a lot of stuff in there to be excited about going forward. Shit I'm excited that maybe Obsidian and InXile can help out with Fallout 5 and return it to it's former glory. 

 

Did you play Ruiner yet? I need someone to talk about the ending with. This has nothing to do with this thread, I think it was on PS4 too. 

 

Yeah, it's basically been seven years of Sony's first party being all right and changing goal posts around here. We both know Twin's not one of those weirdos; it might suit some people to act more like him.

 

I think there's a difference between not being interested in the games (or just haven't gotten around to them) and not acknowledging it's a big get for MS. The latter is true; the former is YMMV. For me, Doom was a lot of fun, and I've no need to go back and play it. Skyrim I've no reason to go back to UNLESS it's VR, in which case I'm set. End of the day, they had games I was really interested in, and now they're not on the system I'll be spending time on from the getgo, so there's no benefit to me to cheer the acquisition unless GP comes to PS. Actually, probably only MS should really cheer it considering everyone was set to get Elder Scrolls/Starfield anyway.

 

Have NOT played Ruiner, but that's published by Devolver, so never say never!

 

Also, thanks @sblfilms: I rather liked the layers on that GOW gif!

[number305]

22 minutes ago, Dodger said:

It's the internet, I see people acting like most of Sony's first party games are no big deal either.

 

I understand not everyone plays everything, but everyone has played Skyrim at some point, Fallout isn't what it used to be but most have fond memories of New Vegas, Doom 2016 was one of the best FPS games of this gen, the Wolfenstein games have been good, Prey was a gem, Dishonored is a great series and I believe is one of our glorious leaders @Emperor Diocletian II favorites, Evil Within was generally well received. 

 

There's a lot of stuff in there to be excited about going forward. Shit I'm excited that maybe Obsidian and InXile can help out with Fallout 5 and return it to it's former glory. 

 

Did you play Ruiner yet? I need someone to talk about the ending with. This has nothing to do with this thread, I think it was on PS4 too. 

 

I would love to see InXile help on Fallout.  Wasteland 3 was the best fallout game since NewVegas!

[Brian]

Microsoft CEO Nadella: ZeniMax/Bethesda acquisition is "all about future of software", will consider buying even more video game companies in future

 

[JPDunks4]

50 minutes ago, ManUtdRedDevils said:

Sega is next boys!

 

 

Tokyo Game Show announce.

[The def star]

54 minutes ago, ManUtdRedDevils said:

Sega is next boys!

 

[Dodger]

I see some people saying a lot of these big games will have to be multi plat for MS to get ROI but I don’t agree. If GP is already at 15 million subscribers, it’s gotta be netting 1 billion+ in annual revenue. If MS can double GP subscribers to 30 million with their big next gen push, suddenly GP itself will be b netting a couple+ billion a year by itself, not to mention driving other revenue. That gets MS the purchase price back in a handful of years. I wouldn’t expect any of the major releases to be on the PS5. You might get some of the smaller games on Switch or something, but that will be it I think.

[The def star]

6 minutes ago, Dodger said:

I see some people saying a lot of these big games will have to be multi plat for MS to get ROI but I don’t agree. If GP is already at 15 million subscribers, it’s gotta be netting 1 billion+ in annual revenue. If MS can double GP subscribers to 30 million with their big next gen push, suddenly GP itself will be b netting a couple+ billion a year by itself, not to mention driving other revenue. That gets MS the purchase price back in a handful of years. I wouldn’t expect any of the major releases to be on the PS5. You might get some of the smaller games on Switch or something, but that will be it I think.

I have a good feeling MS will keep Bethesda games exclusive to PC and Xbox. The game by game basis I have a feeling being mostly for Switch ports since they have done pretty well with Minecraft, Cuphead, Ori and Minecraft dungeons getting to #1 on the eShop for weeks.

[crispy4000]

1 hour ago, Dodger said:

I see some people saying a lot of these big games will have to be multi plat for MS to get ROI but I don’t agree. If GP is already at 15 million subscribers, it’s gotta be netting 1 billion+ in annual revenue. If MS can double GP subscribers to 30 million with their big next gen push, suddenly GP itself will be b netting a couple+ billion a year by itself, not to mention driving other revenue.

 

30 million subscribers would equate to 60 million 1st party digital game sales @ $60 annually.  Not counting other costs to sustain Games Pass, like deals with EA and indies.

For comparison, Nintendo sold almost 170 million units of software last year.  With a good chunk of it at $60, and with much cheaper development costs on the whole.

 

That sums up why Microsoft is considering releasing some games multiplatform ("on a case by case basis").  Once they get to a crazy number like 100 million subscribers and/or impose price hikes, they can be as shrewd as they want.  But until Games Pass snowballs like that, I don't think they can easily ignore the money left on the table.

 

It just depends on how much they want to flex while they're biting the bullet.

[Dodger]

2 minutes ago, crispy4000 said:

 

30 million subscribers equates to 60 million 1st party digital game sales @ $60 annually.  Not counting other costs to sustain Games Pass, like deals with EA and indies.

For comparison, Nintendo sold almost 170 million units of software last year.  With a good chunk of it at $60, with much cheaper development costs on the whole.

 

That perfectly illustrates why Microsoft is considering releasing some games multiplatform ("on a case by case basis").  Once they get to 100 million subscribers and/or impose price hikes, they can be as shrewd as they want.  But until Games Pass snowballs like that, I don't think they can easily ignore the money left on the table.

 

It just depends on how much they want to flex while they're biting the bullet.

 

Well GP games are "free". If you assume ms is averaging $10 a month for every GP sub, that's currently about $150 million per month or 1.8 billion a year. So now double that and you are at 3.6 billion a year. And GP is going to stop being cheap real soon. That's not even counting whatever other revenue GP drives, and people without it who buy the game. If they can double their GP subscribers they can probably get the Bethesda purchase price back damn near annually and MS is obviously gambling these acquistions will help them do that. 

 

I wouldn't hold my breath that Fallout 5 or TES 6 will be on the PS5. Maybe Starfield since it's probably well into development for both systems but that would probably be it. 

[Guest]

I would say the question will be “does this drive subscriptions?” and they will do whatever is a yes, even if the short term is less revenue.

[crispy4000]

41 minutes ago, Dodger said:

 

Well GP games are "free". If you assume ms is averaging $10 a month for every GP sub, that's currently about $150 million per month or 1.8 billion a year. So now double that and you are at 3.6 billion a year. And GP is going to stop being cheap real soon. That's not even counting whatever other revenue GP drives, and people without it who buy the game. If they can double their GP subscribers they can probably get the Bethesda purchase price back damn near annually and MS is obviously gambling these acquistions will help them do that. 

 

I wouldn't hold my breath that Fallout 5 or TES 6 will be on the PS5. Maybe Starfield since it's probably well into development for both systems but that would probably be it. 

 

Not holding my breath, that's for sure.  I think it's as unlikely as you.

They just bought a studio.  But it's not as simple as them just making that all money back in a year.  They've got like 23 studios to pay upkeep for now.

Can 3.6 billion in annual software revenue maintain all that?  Probably not without Microsoft's bankroll as a play for the future.  That's what this is all about.  They won't be able to settle for 30 million subscribers.  They're aiming for much higher, because that's how their business model is going to work.

[Dodger]

Well We'll find out, you don't convince the CEO to let you spend $7.5 billion without a detailed plan. I just think that number isn't as crazy high as you would initially think and that there is a path to that kind of revenue for MS without putting any of these games out on the PS5. 

[XxEvil AshxX]

I don't think SEGA's worth all that much nowadays, to be honest. I mean hell, if you're gonna put t-bone steak on the shopping list, might as well bring home a bottle of cheap wine, too.

[crispy4000]

12 minutes ago, Dodger said:

Well We'll find out, you don't convince the CEO to let you spend $7.5 billion without a detailed plan. I just think that number isn't as crazy high as you would initially think and that there is a path to that kind of revenue for MS without putting any of these games out on the PS5. 

I think that number would have to be very high, considering Sony doesn’t think the model can reasonably support AAA for them.  But I do think Microsoft can reach it, eventually, if all the cards keep falling in their favor. (like EA Play did before this)

 

We agree that Microsoft doesn’t need to put Bethesda’s games on PS5 to achieve their aims with GP.

[skillzdadirecta]

56 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

I would say the question will be “does this drive subscriptions?” and they will do whatever is a yes, even if the short term is less revenue.

Also known as "The Netflix approach"... whatever they do, it will be to benefit their brand. Like timed exclusives on Xbox and PC on gamepass and POSSIBLY going multiplat in the futre. OR they could just freeze Sony out and just do Xbox, PC and Nintendo... plenty of strategies here that would make sense that don't inlcude "throwing a bone to your bitterest rival."

[skillzdadirecta]

5 minutes ago, crispy4000 said:

I think that number would have to be very high, considering Sony doesn’t think the model can reasonably support AAA.  But I do think Microsoft can reach it, eventually, if all the cards keep falling in their favor. (like EA Play did before this)

 

We agree that Microsoft doesn’t need to put Bethesda’s games on PS5 to achieve their aims with GP.

Sony doesn't have MS' pockets.

[XxEvil AshxX]

So we could also be jumping a step here... who's to say that MS even needs to buy SEGA? It could be a publishing deal... maybe SEGA might offload some IP's? I find it hard to believe they'd want to get rid of Sonic, but damn.. it's not like he's the cash cow he used to be, so who knows...

[Dodger]

5 minutes ago, crispy4000 said:

I think that number would have to be very high, considering Sony doesn’t think the model can reasonably support AAA for them.  But I do think Microsoft can reach it, eventually, if all the cards keep falling in their favor. (like EA Play did before this)

 

We agree that Microsoft doesn’t need to put Bethesda’s games on PS5 to achieve their aims with GP.

 

 

I think for Sony they've just had a string of first party games sell 10+ million or are on track to since I don't think TLOU2 and GOT are officially there yet, and they know Spiderman 2, HZD2 and GOW2 will get there as well as long as some of their other games. So they certainly feel they don't need GP or a reason to detract from sales of their games which are now nearly all hits and should be nearly all hits going forward. 

 

Sony will be just fine. Their first party portfolio is hitting on all strides now and I have no doubt the PS5 will sell another 100+ million consoles. You just won't be playing Skyrim 2 on it. 

[crispy4000]

5 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

Sony doesn't have MS' pockets.

It’s not supporting AAA if Microsoft would always be hemorrhaging money.

 

They must reach sustainability at some point with it.  As other have said, it’s a play for the future.

[JPDunks4]

18 minutes ago, crispy4000 said:

 

Not holding my breath, that's for sure.  I think it's as unlikely as you.

They just bought a studio.  But it's not as simple as them just making that all money back in a year.  They've got like 23 studios to pay upkeep for now.

Can 3.6 billion in annual software revenue maintain all that?  Probably not without Microsoft's bankroll as a play for the future.  That's what this is all about.  They won't be able to settle for 30 million subscribers.  They're aiming for much higher, because that's how their business model is going to work.

 

I mean, Sony's best exclusives sell what, 10-15 million?  Some of those at $60, but plenty are at reduced prices.  Mostly over the course of a few years.  2 months of Game Pass revenue @ 30 million subs literally accounts for 10 million sold of a $60 Exclusive if sold digitally.  How often does Sony release 10 million sellers at $60?  Is it 6 times per year?

 

Also need to account for the potential xCloud brings in helping Game Pass grow substantially in Asian countries.

 

Microsoft has a lot of things happening right now.  Soon enough Game Pass will become a must have for just about anyone gaming on either PC or Xbox Consoles, so 30 million is a very low estimate I think for potential subs in the next few years.

 

They got to 15 million with essentially no big 1st Party AAA's, and Xbox One consoles being a relative bust.  

 

Now they have Series X/S which should fair far better, xCloud, and at least 23 1st Party Studios that will soon start rolling out content regularly.  I wouldn't be shocked if they can hit 50 million Subs in 2 or so years.