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"Officially Welcoming Bethesda to Team Xbox"


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2 minutes ago, crispy4000 said:


It’s not supporting AAA if Microsoft would always be hemorrhaging money.

 

They must reach sustainability at some point with it.  As other have said, it’s a play for the future.

MS seems to be following Netflix' business model is all I'm saying and folks STILL don't think Netflix has turned a profit. Uber didn't for awhile either. This MAY be the strategy MS is follwoing with thir Xbox brand which is less risky for them than these other two companies because they are extremely profitable in other areas of of their business. Unlike Sony.

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I think the future for Gamepass and the Xbox brand is near ubiquity on every electronic device, also like Netflix. Or maybe better example is Roku. They began as a device manufacturer, but now you can find the Roku platform preinstalled on non Roku hardware.

 

Thats where I see Gamepass/Xbox going. xCloud will be a crucial component of this. In 5 years or less I can see Gamepass as another “channel” you subscribe to on your TV that you just hook up one of your various controllers to and start playing.

 

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59 minutes ago, crispy4000 said:

 

Not holding my breath, that's for sure.  I think it's as unlikely as you.

They just bought a studio.  But it's not as simple as them just making that all money back in a year.  They've got like 23 studios to pay upkeep for now.

Can 3.6 billion in annual software revenue maintain all that?  Probably not without Microsoft's bankroll as a play for the future.  That's what this is all about.  They won't be able to settle for 30 million subscribers.  They're aiming for much higher, because that's how their business model is going to work.

I dunno, even at 1,000 people in all 23 studios all making $100k a year, that'd still only be $2.3 billion in upkeep, and I don't think most of those studios are anywhere near that big and I bet only a handful of devs in each make 6 figures. Obviously revenue vs profit blah blah blah, but I imagine $3.6 billion per year would be a massive profit in the end.

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17 minutes ago, Xbob42 said:

I dunno, even at 1,000 people in all 23 studios all making $100k a year, that'd still only be $2.3 billion in upkeep, and I don't think most of those studios are anywhere near that big and I bet only a handful of devs in each make 6 figures. Obviously revenue vs profit blah blah blah, but I imagine $3.6 billion per year would be a massive profit in the end.

Plus redundancy reduction in OH positions like accounting, hr, it, legal, etc will lower the headcount

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1 hour ago, Xbob42 said:

I dunno, even at 1,000 people in all 23 studios all making $100k a year, that'd still only be $2.3 billion in upkeep, and I don't think most of those studios are anywhere near that big and I bet only a handful of devs in each make 6 figures. Obviously revenue vs profit blah blah blah, but I imagine $3.6 billion per year would be a massive profit in the end.


Marketing, workstation equipment, studio rent, taxes, benefits, temp workers, outsourcing, licensing, r&d, other Games Pass deals, etc. 

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They got 2,300 employees between the 8 studios they just purchased.

 

Most of their current 1st Party Studios seem to be 150ish people, with a few of the larger being up to 500 people.

 

There will be plenty of money to be made as Game Pass Scales up.

 

Xbox is also still making money off the CoD's, Maddens, 2ks, GTA's, Ubisoft's titles, ect.  It's not like their only revenue is going to be Game Pass subs.  

 

I think Microsoft will be just fine, and the more I think about it, the more I think they will be holding these games as exclusives to the Xbox Platform.  

 

Being these games will be Next Gen only, Sony no longer has a 110 million install base to care about.  I'm sure PS5 will do great and sell a ton, but in the next few years, they may only have 30ish million install base, and the value of releasing on that compared to keeping things in house to build up your own install base, isn't nearly as big a deal as 110 million.

 

 

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41 minutes ago, JPDunks4 said:

They got 2,300 employees between the 8 studios they just purchased.

 

Most of their current 1st Party Studios seem to be 150ish people, with a few of the larger being up to 500 people.

 

There will be plenty of money to be made as Game Pass Scales up.

 

Xbox is also still making money off the CoD's, Maddens, 2ks, GTA's, Ubisoft's titles, ect.  It's not like their only revenue is going to be Game Pass subs.  

 

I think Microsoft will be just fine, and the more I think about it, the more I think they will be holding these games as exclusives to the Xbox Platform.  

 

Being these games will be Next Gen only, Sony no longer has a 110 million install base to care about.  I'm sure PS5 will do great and sell a ton, but in the next few years, they may only have 30ish million install base, and the value of releasing on that compared to keeping things in house to build up your own install base, isn't nearly as big a deal as 110 million.

 

 

 

Yeah that's the thing; Game Pass is only one of their revenue streams. Plus actual third party game purchases, DLC, all the microtransactions in the Maddens/NBAs/CoDs... Then on top of that you have their PC sales. Sea of Thieves and Grounded might be included in PC game pass, but they still sold very well on Steam.

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When Microsoft purchased ZeniMax this week, we were all blinded by the dazzling array of amazing games that will now be exclusive to Xbox platforms. There's another massive aspect of this package that is being a tad overlooked.

Microsoft also got id Tech, and Orion, all their patents, ect.  Didn't they sue Facebook over VR tech due to their patents.

 

I don't know much about Orion, but they showed it off last year at E3, and I guess they stressed it was ahead of xCloud and Stadia on performance for streaming.

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Again, there are lots of assets that were acquired besides the future expected revenue. Going to be interesting to see how MS utilizes their purchase, even though I don’t like such consolidation as a base belief.

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If you guys sincerely feel that a Microsoft is swimming in money from 15 million subscribers paying them $120 a year (on top of their other Xbox division earnings) while maintaining two dozen studios, then you should be as fearful as @SaysWho? about consolidation.  Nintendo and Sony both make bank off their first party sales, especially this generation.

 

I don’t think 7.5B is a drop in the bucket or anything.  But there’s several other publishers that could be bought that could reliably generate millions of sales annually.  Subscription or otherwise.  Lots of companies could be purchased more as an investment, especially if these are the terms of engagement now.  We could even see some mergers, and more Tencent investments.

 

I think this is more a play for future sustainability, for when they do reach super high subscriber numbers.  So I’m a bit less worried about a domino effect.  But who knows for sure.

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1 hour ago, crispy4000 said:

If you guys sincerely feel that a Microsoft is swimming in money from 15 million subscribers paying them $120 a year (on top of their other Xbox division earnings) while maintaining two dozen studios, then you should be as fearful as @SaysWho? about consolidation.  Nintendo and Sony both make bank off their first party sales, especially this generation.

 

I don’t think 7.5B is a drop in the bucket or anything.  But there’s several other publishers that could be bought that could reliably generate millions of sales annually.  Subscription or otherwise.  Lots of companies could be purchased more as an investment, especially if these are the terms of engagement now.  We could even see some mergers, and more Tencent investments.

 

I’m more skeptical that this isn’t more a play for future sustainability, once they do reach super high subscriber numbers.  So I’m a bit less worried about a domino effect.  But who knows for sure.

Seems like they're going the Netflix route; dump tons of cash into projects whilst losing money hand-over-fist in the hopes of compiling a library that will continue to generate revenue for decades to come. 

 

High risk high reward.

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Well there's obviously going to be some kind of announcement, they're laying it on pretty thick.

 

Everybody is saying it would be a quick turnaround for MS to buy another studio, but there's the possibility it happened before Zenimax. These things take months.

 

Or it could just be a Sonic Xbox game and we're getting worked up over nothing.

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1 hour ago, skillzdadirecta said:

Think about this... for what MS just paid for Zenimax, Disney bought both Marvel AND Lucasfilm. Good deal?

The Lucasfilm deal was always a relative steal. That IP has been a mint for 40’years. The Marvel deal is interesting because Disney found untapped value in IP that had been previously viewed in the wrong way, others not realizing that it was much more than the sum of its parts.

 

It will be interesting to see if MS is using it more like Lucasfilm, continuing to grind out profits in the same way as always or if they see something in the Zenimax portfolio that others didn’t and have larger plans than we all may intuit.

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12 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

The Lucasfilm deal was always a relative steal. That IP has been a mint for 40’years. The Marvel deal is interesting because Disney found untapped value in IP that had been previously viewed in the wrong way, others not realizing that it was much more than the sum of its parts.

 

It will be interesting to see if MS is using it more like Lucasfilm, continuing to grind out profits in the same way as always or if they see something in the Zenimax portfolio that others didn’t and have larger plans than we all may intuit.

 

I wouldn't give Disney too much credit. I think Jon Favreau laid the groundwork and had a lot to do with the MCU's success. Kevin Feige for the most part carried the success forward, but even he is starting to get caught up in the Hollywood bullshit. Disney has already proven they don't know what the fuck to do with Star Wars, and again the only really good thing to come out of it so far has been the Mandalorian, which was also Jon Favreau's project. MCU phase 4 is already starting to look like its gonna be pretty shaky. Looking forward to Black Widow but I'm hoping it's not just gonna be a woke mess (which is what they're already starting to market it as).

 

I think Phil Spencer is smart enough to know that if it ain't broke, you don't fix it. Except for Fallout. Maybe he'll fix that.

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1 minute ago, XxEvil AshxX said:

 

I wouldn't give Disney too much credit. I think Jon Favreau laid the groundwork and had a lot to do with the MCU's success. Kevin Feige for the most part carried the success forward, but even he is starting to get caught up in the Hollywood bullshit. Disney has already proven they don't know what the fuck to do with Star Wars, and again the only really good thing to come out of it so far has been the Mandalorian, which was also Jon Favreau's project. MCU phase 4 is already starting to look like its gonna be pretty shaky. Looking forward to Black Widow but I'm hoping it's not just gonna be a woke mess (which is what they're already starting to market it as).

 

I think Phil Spencer is smart enough to know that if it ain't broke, you don't fix it. Except for Fallout. Maybe he'll fix that.


Yeah, no, Disney gets a lot of credit for fostering the growth of the MCU. Alan Horn is one of the best executives in Hollywood and he gave Feige and Co exactly why they needed to turn a bunch of B and C list characters into some of the most recognizable names in the super hero genre. Favs is certainly a big part of it and laid a good foundation for how to approach comic book filmmaking. Same for RDJ himself. But what was Marvel doing with their IP in film prior to the Disney acquisition? They were struggling to get cash to make films. Disney fixed that, gave them all the resources they needed to create the media juggernaut that Marvel now represents.


The last 5 years have been the most profitable for Lucasfilm compared to any other 5 year period. Whether you like what they made or not (I mostly don’t), they have continued to milk that franchise and even more so than Lucas ever knew how.

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9 minutes ago, sblfilms said:


Yeah, no, Disney gets a lot of credit for fostering the growth of the MCU. Alan Horn is one of the best executives in Hollywood and he gave Feige and Co exactly why they needed to turn a bunch of B and C list characters into some of the most recognizable names in the super hero genre. Favs is certainly a big part of it and laid a good foundation for how to approach comic book filmmaking. Same for RDJ himself. But what was Marvel doing with their IP in film prior to the Disney acquisition? They were struggling to get cash to make films. Disney fixed that, gave them all the resources they needed to create the media juggernaut that Marvel now represents.


The last 5 years have been the most profitable for Lucasfilm compared to any other 5 year period. Whether you like what they made or not (I mostly don’t), they have continued to milk that franchise and even more so than Lucas ever knew how.

 

I dunno.. Lucas made bank off of Star Wars for over 30 years, then sold it for 4 billion. I think he milked it plenty, and most of it was profit.

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3 minutes ago, XxEvil AshxX said:

 

I dunno.. Lucas made bank off of Star Wars for over 30 years, then sold it for 4 billion. I think he milked it plenty, and most of it was profit.


And Disney took something that makes tons of Money and then continued making tons of money. That’s the point, they didn’t break the mold with it.

 

The MCU is something unparalleled in film and TV history. And that doesn’t happen without the work of Alan Horn and Disney.

 

These things really aren’t even arguable, but I’m guessing your view is not based in the business of filmmaking but in your personal enjoyment. I’m not talking about whether the output is good, I actually don’t like the MCU hardly at all, I’m talking about how some acquisitions are about continuing with business as usual and some are about finding value that is hidden for some reason. We don’t know which is which with the MA acquisition of Zenimax.

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26 minutes ago, sblfilms said:


And Disney took something that makes tons of Money and then continued making tons of money. That’s the point, they didn’t break the mold with it.

 

The MCU is something unparalleled in film and TV history. And that doesn’t happen without the work of Alan Horn and Disney.

 

These things really aren’t even arguable, but I’m guessing your view is not based in the business of filmmaking but in your personal enjoyment. I’m not talking about whether the output is good, I actually don’t like the MCU hardly at all, I’m talking about how some acquisitions are about continuing with business as usual and some are about finding value that is hidden for some reason. We don’t know which is which with the MA acquisition of Zenimax.

 

It's honestly pretty amazing how many of us only really thought of Spider-Man/Superman/Batman being hugely successful/popular superheroes before the MCU. I'm also not as big a fan of it as, say, TDK trilogy or even something like Days of Future Past, but holy shit at the idea that Iron Man became huge, or Guardians of the Galaxy could be #1 in a year, or the fact that Black fucking Panther was the highest grossing movie in North America even above Avengers: Infinity War.

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46 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

 

It's honestly pretty amazing how many of us only really thought of Spider-Man/Superman/Batman being hugely successful/popular superheroes before the MCU. I'm also not as big a fan of it as, say, TDK trilogy or even something like Days of Future Past, but holy shit at the idea that Iron Man became huge, or Guardians of the Galaxy could be #1 in a year, or the fact that Black fucking Panther was the highest grossing movie in North America even above Avengers: Infinity War.

Xmen and Blade too... those franchises deserve mention as well. Blade was Fiege's first success story and without Blade, you may not get The MCU.

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