Football The 2019-20 Mock Gambling Thread - SUPER BOWL

[Slug]

So it all comes down to this.  The final week of the 2019-20 MGT Season.  AbsolutSurgen holds a commanding lead going into the championship, riding the longest 1st place streak of the year.  But can he hold back the contenders one more time?  With a small handful of players within striking distance and the questions worth big bucks, will he still be standing atop the hill when the dust settles?  This weekend may be the Super Bowl, but the real fight is here!  We should sell ad space.

 

 -= THE LEADERBOARD =-
@AbsolutSurgen - $268,000
@thewhyteboar - $186,850
@Keyser_Soze - $120,000
@Biggie - $90,950
@Dodger - $57,200
@Greatoneshere - $19,000
Slug - $17,000
@BasemntDweller2 - $10,000
@Jose - $13,100
@RedSoxFan9 - $12,800
@Alpha1Cowboy - $5,300
@SFLUFAN - $3,900
@johnny - $2,500
@Kal-El814 - $1,500

 

## SUPER BOWL - MOCK GAMBLING - SPREAD AND QUESTIONS ##

 

DEADLINE FOR SUPER BOWL ENTRIES - 2/2/2020 (SUNDAY) 6:29pm EASTERN
THREAD WILL BE LOCKED AT THE DEADLINE SO GET YOUR ENTRIES IN!

 

** Feature Game **
Super Bowl LIII: San Francisco 49'ers (+1.5) vs Kansas City Chiefs
(Remember you are betting against the spread, not just the outright winner)

 

QUESTIONS

1) What will be the first scoring play of the Super Bowl? 49'ers touchdown, 49'ers field goal, 49'ers safety, Chiefs touchdown, Chiefs field goal, Chiefs safety, or other? ($15,000 for the correct call) 

 

2) What will be the final scoring play of the Super Bowl? 49'ers touchdown, 49'ers field goal, 49'ers safety, Chiefs touchdown, Chiefs field goal, Chiefs safety, or other? ($15,000 for the correct call)

 

3) Which will be the highest scoring quarter of the Super Bowl? ($20,000 for the correct answer)

 

4) Will the team leading at half-time go on to win? ($15,000 for the correct answer)

 

5) Will there be any missed kicks (FG or PAT) in the game? ($15,000 for the correct answer) 

 

6) What will the combined score be at the end of each quarter?  Give us 4 scores, corresponding in order to the four quarters. You will win the Q6 cash for EACH correct answer. See my example answer below if you are confused. ($25,000 per correct score)

 

### Example Answer Post and MY ENTRY ###
Feature Game: Chiefs - $16,000

1. Niners FG
2. Chiefs TD
3. 4th
4. No
5. Yes
6. 6, 20, 30, 47
#####################

 

Good luck!

 

########## THE SEASON #########
Week 1  <-- See here for full rules if you're interested in joining the competition!
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17
Wild Card Weekend
Divisional Round
Championship Round

Pro-Bowl Bye Week & Fun Facts

[Slug]

Waiting until just before the deadline to post entries:

[AbsolutSurgen]

ATM, I honestly have no idea who I think will win.  And... I hate both teams.

[Biggie]

Kansas City Chiefs- $ 90,950

 

1. Chiefs TD

2. Chiefs TD

3. Second

4. Yes

5. Yes

6. 14   35   45   59

 

Thanks for taking time out to do this @Slug  It was a blast

[Biggie]

11 hours ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

ATM, I honestly have no idea who I think will win.  And... I hate both teams.

Wonder what the weather will be like in Miami on Sunday. Rain could favor the Niners. 

[AbsolutSurgen]

1 hour ago, Biggie said:

Wonder what the weather will be like in Miami on Sunday. Rain could favor the Niners. 

Heavy rain would definitely favour the 49ers.

[thewhyteboar]

Chiefs $80,000

1. Chiefs TD

2. Chiefs TD

3. 3rd

4. Yes

5. No

6. 10, 24, 45, 55

 

@Slug you the man for doing these! 

[Dodger]

49ers, $57200

 

1. 49er FG

2. 49er FG

3. 3rd

4. yes

5. yes

6. 10, 21, 34, 54

[Keyser_Soze]

49ers $120,000

 

1. 49ers TD
2. Chiefs TD
3. 4th Quarter
4. No
5. Yes
6. 13 / 30 / 40 / 64

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

Super Bowl LIII: Kansas City Chiefs -- $210,000
 

QUESTIONS

1) Chiefs TD

2) 49ers TD

3) 2nd Quarter

4) Yes

5) Yes

6) 14/38/45/59

 

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

@Slug -- I assume this isn't in the spirit of the game. 

I was planning on putting in my input this morning to give the other players a chance to game me, not expecting to see their inputs yet.  And I fully expected, @thewhyteboar to bet heavy on whoever I didn't.  Given his current bet, game theory tells me I should do something like:

Quote

 

Super Bowl LIII: Kansas City Chiefs -- $20,000
QUESTIONS

1) 49ers TD

2) Chiefs TD

3) 4th Quarter

4) No

5) Yes

6) 13/30/40/64

 

I would win in virtually all scenarios where the 49ers win, and about 80% of the ones where the Chiefs do.

That would be a dick move though -- right?

[Slug]

3 hours ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

@Slug -- I assume this isn't in the spirit of the game. 

I was planning on putting in my input this morning to give the other players a chance to game me, not expecting to see their inputs yet.  And I fully expected, @thewhyteboar to bet heavy on whoever I didn't.  Given his current bet, game theory tells me I should do something like:

I would win in virtually all scenarios where the 49ers win, and about 80% of the ones where the Chiefs do.

That would be a dick move though -- right?

Didn't cross my mind. I mean, do what you feel. The goal is to be Champ, right? People can edit their bets up to the deadline. 

[Biggie]

46 minutes ago, Slug said:

Didn't cross my mind. I mean, do what you feel. The goal is to be Champ, right? People can edit their bets up to the deadline. 

If I were smart I should change my pick to the 49er’s.  That way I’d have a chance.  
 

🤔

[thewhyteboar]

4 hours ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

@Slug -- I assume this isn't in the spirit of the game. 

I was planning on putting in my input this morning to give the other players a chance to game me, not expecting to see their inputs yet.  And I fully expected, @thewhyteboar to bet heavy on whoever I didn't.  Given his current bet, game theory tells me I should do something like:

I would win in virtually all scenarios where the 49ers win, and about 80% of the ones where the Chiefs do.

That would be a dick move though -- right?

You built up a giant lead! Most likely no one is gonna catch you. Bet how you want!

[AbsolutSurgen]

4 hours ago, Slug said:

Didn't cross my mind. I mean, do what you feel. The goal is to be Champ, right? People can edit their bets up to the deadline. 

I just didn't wamt anyone to accuse me of "cheating".

3 hours ago, Biggie said:

If I were smart I should change my pick to the 49er’s.  That way I’d have a chance.  
 

🤔

Not quite that simple, but as the entries stand right now, there are no scenarios where you win.

2 hours ago, thewhyteboar said:

You built up a giant lead! Most likely no one is gonna catch you. Bet how you want!

As the bets stand now, Keyser wins if the 49ers cover, and I win if the Chiefs cover -- barring someone doing really well calling the scores by quarter.

 

My motivation here wasn't really to tell anyone how to bet, but merely point out that there might be an opportunity for me to "game" my entry as I was submitting my entry last.

[Keyser_Soze]

42 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

As the bets stand now, Keyser wins if the 49ers cover, and I win if the Chiefs cover -- barring someone doing really well calling the scores by quarter.

 

But if you bet nothing there's no way I catch you, well unless I'm godlike with my picks anyway.

[AbsolutSurgen]

9 hours ago, Keyser_Soze said:

 

But if you bet nothing there's no way I catch you, well unless I'm godlike with my picks anyway.

I'm not just playing you.  As well, given the nature of the questions (two are fifty/fifty shots), and their high value you can relatively frequently get swings of >$30k in questions 1-5.  There are ~256 permutations of questions 1-5.

Based on today's bets:

If I bet nothing, and the Chiefs win Whyte is only $1,150 behind me, and if the 49ers win you are 28k behind me.  Whyte will beat me in 80 of the 256 permutations (~30%), and you will beat me in 44 of the 256 permutations (~17%).  I am open to Whyte changing his bet at the last minute, and it getting much worse than this. (i.e. my odds of winning could be less than 50%)

However, if I bet 20k and MATCH your question 1-6, I win all situations where the 49ers win, and Whyte wins in 48 of the 256 permutations (~20%) where the Chiefs win.  (The margin of victory also tends to be somewhat higher, so I would be less susceptible to losing on question 6 -- which I haven't modelled because I didn't want to spend more than 20 minutes on it).  I am still open to Whyte changing his bet, and somewhat open to you changing your answers to 1-6 at the last minute.  (i.e. my odds of winning could be less than 50%).

If I keep my current bet, I can lock in a win if the Chiefs win -- regardless of what anyone else does.

[Keyser_Soze]

Well good luck!

 

And also one last thank you @Slug