~*Official #COVID-19 Thread of Doom*~ Revenge of Omicron Prime

[CitizenVectron]

 

Hey, whatever works!

[Guest]

Prioritizing single dosing for most population groups is the right solution mathematically to stamp out the pandemic in the short run, double dosing is what you need to end future flare ups. Canada is doing the right thing.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

7 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

I can't remember who was the biggest advocate of this idea here. Maybe @sblfilms? But the idea goes that it doesn't matter where you live (or how close you live to someone else), it matters how often you are around other people. Theoretically, people in a 30-storey apartment building in NYC are living in a much more dense environment than the same number of people living in a rural area spread out over 30 square miles. But, if those rural people are more often gathering in local diners, halls, and living rooms, then the virus can spread more easily. So in that sense, the issue is mostly compliance around gatherings, and the culture of areas/people in terms of how often they gather. There was some good stuff posted a long time ago in this thread about how people in suburbs and rural communities end up gathering a lot more than people in cities during the pandemic, and this is why they experienced worse spread over the past year. It's really interesting stuff.

Najavo nation had one of the worst per capita outbreaks in the world and they live in one of the least dense places in the country. But a lot of people live in larger household units

5 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Hey, whatever works!

I like it but I don't see this data in Bloomberg vaccination data

[AbsolutSurgen]

Just now, CitizenVectron said:

 

I can't remember who was the biggest advocate of this idea here. Maybe @sblfilms? But the idea goes that it doesn't matter where you live (or how close you live to someone else), it matters how often you are around other people. Theoretically, people in a 30-storey apartment building in NYC are living in a much more dense environment than the same number of people living in a rural area spread out over 30 square miles. But, if those rural people are more often gathering in local diners, halls, and living rooms, then the virus can spread more easily. So in that sense, the issue is mostly compliance around gatherings, and the culture of areas/people in terms of how often they gather. There was some good stuff posted a long time ago in this thread about how people in suburbs and rural communities end up gathering a lot more than people in cities during the pandemic, and this is why they experienced worse spread over the past year. It's really interesting stuff.

If you look at the data in Ontario, Toronto, and it's suburbs, have a signifcantly higher infection rates than the smaller cities (such as London, which is still significantly bigger than Regina or Saskatoon) -- and have consistently through the pandemic.

[AbsolutSurgen]

4 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

Prioritizing single dosing for most population groups is the right solution mathematically to stamp out the pandemic in the short run, double dosing is what you need to end future flare ups. Canada is doing the right thing.

There are mixed opinions in the epidemiological community.  We'll learn who's right in a few months.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

There are mixed opinions in the epidemiological community.  We'll learn who's right in a few months.

I am definitely right  It is important to look at why certain people don’t like the strategy. It pretty much all boils down to the fact that there are things we don’t know. But not knowing definitively is very different from not knowing what is more probable. 

 

12 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Najavo nation had one of the worst per capita outbreaks in the world and they live in one of the least dense places in the country. But a lot of people live in larger household units

 

The reason why is that public places are not the primary way in which the virus is propagating. There is a reason that major family holidays were followed by big upswings in cases. The virus needs time + proximity more than anything else. 

[CitizenVectron]

11 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

There are mixed opinions in the epidemiological community.  We'll learn who's right in a few months.

 

As long as the delayed boosters provide the same level of efficacy (and early results from the UK seem to show they provide better efficacy at 12 weeks than 3 weeks), then giving everyone one shot first is the far better approach, and will have saved hundreds or thousands of lives.

[CitizenVectron]

1 minute ago, sblfilms said:

I am definitely right  It is important to look at why certain people don’t like the strategy. It pretty much all boils down to the fact that there are things we don’t know. But not knowing definitively is very different from not knowing what is more probable. 

 

 

The reason why is that public places are not the primary way in which the virus is propagating. There is a reason that major family holidays were followed by big upswings in cases. The virus needs time + proximity more than anything else. 

 

Exactly. In my province, the main places of spread are:

1. Households

2. Workplaces

3. Hockey and curling rinks (because the virus survives in the air for much longer)

 

You catch it when you're breathing in the air for long periods around other people who have it. 

[AbsolutSurgen]

27 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

I am definitely right  It is important to look at why certain people don’t like the strategy. It pretty much all boils down to the fact that there are things we don’t know. But not knowing definitively is very different from not knowing what is more probable. 

I've seen some experts make the point that the one dose has very high efficacy at preventing serious complications, but is only so-so at preventing infection/ability to spread the disease (I've seen ranges one dose of Pfizer only being 30%-70% effective at preventing infection).

So when looking at the ability to open up the lockdown, if you still have ~30% of the folks unvaccinated, and if the 70% who are only partially vaccinated are still somewhat able to be infected, AND if the b.1617 is 60% more infectious and the vaccines provide less protection against it....  If you reduce the restrictions, your ICUs fill up.

32 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Exactly. In my province, the main places of spread are:

1. Households

2. Workplaces

3. Hockey and curling rinks (because the virus survives in the air for much longer)

 

You catch it when you're breathing in the air for long periods around other people who have it. 

The vast majority of multi-generational houses are in big cities in Canada.  The vast majority of "essential" warehouses and "essential" manufacturing plants are in big cities in Canada.  The biggest concentration of those are in Brampton/Rexdale (which surround Pearson Airport) -- which are the areas that are driving the pandemic in Ontario.

[AbsolutSurgen]

39 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

As long as the delayed boosters provide the same level of efficacy (and early results from the UK seem to show they provide better efficacy at 12 weeks than 3 weeks), then giving everyone one shot first is the far better approach, and will have saved hundreds or thousands of lives.

The main point of debate among experts, in terms of overall deaths, is whether delaying the second dose of those over 65 leads to more deaths or not.  The one dose has lower efficacy than two for the ones that are at risk of dying for the 12-week interval.

 

Which is a separate point as to whether one dose is as good at preventing the spread of disease, as opposed to two, and allowing us to "return to normal".

[CitizenVectron]

6 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

 

The vast majority of multi-generational houses are in big cities in Canada.  The vast majority of "essential" warehouses and "essential" manufacturing plants are in big cities in Canada.  The biggest concentration of those are in Brampton/Rexdale (which surround Pearson Airport) -- which are the areas that are driving the pandemic in Ontario.

 

We're getting off-topic here (or past the point)—regardless of density, etc, Saskatchewan has had consistently worse rates of infection that Ontario throughout the pandemic, yet also has a much better vaccine rollout. The reason is simple: our goal was to inject as many people as quickly as possible. This meant centralized booking systems and drive-in/walk-in sites you could access without appointment. It hasn't been perfect (some groups like teachers came later in the process than they should have due to the requirements being mostly age-based), but it's been better than anywhere else in the provinces. Ontario fucked up by focusing on private distribution through pharmacies (a mistake that Saskatchewan unfortunately just followed).

[AbsolutSurgen]

54 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

We're getting off-topic here (or past the point)—regardless of density, etc, Saskatchewan has had consistently worse rates of infection that Ontario throughout the pandemic, yet also has a much better vaccine rollout. The reason is simple: our goal was to inject as many people as quickly as possible. This meant centralized booking systems and drive-in/walk-in sites you could access without appointment. It hasn't been perfect (some groups like teachers came later in the process than they should have due to the requirements being mostly age-based), but it's been better than anywhere else in the provinces. Ontario fucked up by focusing on private distribution through pharmacies (a mistake that Saskatchewan unfortunately just followed).

Ontario's rate is 3,466 / 100k -- Saskatchewan is 3,792 per 100k.

Saskatchewan has vaccinated 47.02%/4.00% (one dose/two dose), Ontario is at 46.38%/3.00%. 

 

Again, I said big cities.  That is clearly the case in an Ontario context -- that is where the manufacturing/warehousing jobs are located, with people in multi-generational homes (those neighbourhoods are in the 10-20k range of infections).  They aren't in the small towns here.  I'll defer to you on where it is happening in Saskatchewan.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

 

 

[Jason]

Quote

The move is part of a general shedding of pandemic measures that aided workers. On Monday, Trader Joe’s followed up its end to a mask mandate with a repeal of hazard pay of an additional $2 an hour. Yet other measures, closer to hygiene theater, are still in place, said the Missouri worker. “It feels like unless you’re going to put our store completely back to normal, we’re still in a pandemic then, so we should still be getting ‘thank you’ pay,” they said. (Trader Joe’s calls hazard pay “thank you” pay.)

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

 

 

 

[silentbob]

So my older sister and her husband get their first shot on Thursday and my younger sister gets her first shot on Friday. They already booked her 2nd shot for early September, but I wonder at the rate we are going now in Ontario. Do you think we would see those time frames bumped up a month or more? Unless Ford does something stupid and stops mass vaccination site after reaching a high first dose percentage while 2nd shot numbers still linger well behind. . . . . never mind, he’d do it.

[ort]

Someone help me with my cheeseball back of napkin math...

 

Missouri currently has a (rolling 7 day average) of 400 new cases every day.

 

Assuming a case of COVID lasts 14 days...

 

400 x 14 = 5,600 active cases of covid in the entire state...

 

Now, let's just quadruple that for shits and giggles (unreported cases, etc)... 5,600 x 4 = 22,400

 

Missouri had a population of 6.137 million.

 

6,137,000 ÷ 22,400 = 273

 

So roughly 1 in 273 Missourians has COVID.

 

That means (absolute worst case) roughly 1 in 250 people walking around have a case of COVID... BUT that's probably a very unrealistic number... it's probably closer to 1 in 2000-3000 people. (Since I would assume the vast majority of these people have the common sense and decency to at least stay home while actively sick, plus I quadrupled the number of infected)

 

So if I'm fully vaccinated... (selfishly focusing just on me for a sec) my reading on this is that I can just completely stop worrying about this shit for the most part? The odds of someone who is walking around with COVID actively infecting me is so slim, it may as well be completely statistically irrelevant.

 

I'm not saying that I'm going to start acting like an idiot, but I think I'm ready to more or less stop worrying about this every day. (Except for my kids of course)

[Guest]

1 minute ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

 

 

 

Yup. Still some easy wins to be had on the vaccination front if we cared to do so!

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, ort said:

So if I'm fully vaccinated... (selfishly focusing just on me for a sec) my reading on this is that I can just completely stop worrying about this shit for the most part? The odds of someone who is walking around with COVID actively infecting me is so slim, it may as well be completely statistically irrelevant.

 

100%. The truth is that there just isn’t a high prevalence of the disease at this point in most communities and the continued climb in vaccination numbers will further tamp down the ability for the virus to flare up.
 

I know it is hard to adjust, but we are now in a very different phase of the pandemic in the US and while you don’t need to do actively dangerous things, the risks (especially for fully vaccinated adults) are now well below that of even mild seasonal flus. 

[Chairslinger]

My mom is someone who was worried about taking the vaccine. Not because she is an anti-vaxxer or Trumper. In fact, the past year and Trump's response to Covid really changed her from being a "dislikes both sides" kind of person to a "Republicans are fucking crazy and I like Joe and Kamala" type person. No, she was hesitant just because she is a worrier about all things.

 

I decided to have her come with me when I got my shot because I figured seeing me get it would push her over the hump to get it. And glad to say she did. We had some horrible timing because she retired RIGHT before things went insane last year(literally, her last day was March 15th) so she even thanked me for convincing her to get it because she feels like after the second dose she can finally really start and enjoy being retired. 

 

I tell this story mostly because I enjoyed joking with her that I imagined her in the Pharmacy section of Krogers having a reaction like Marge trying to fly.......

 

 

 

 

[Guest]

The county I live in has had more days this week with 0 cases and 0 deaths over the last 7 days than the entirety of April 2020 until now.

[CitizenVectron]

3 hours ago, silentbob said:

So my older sister and her husband get their first shot on Thursday and my younger sister gets her first shot on Friday. They already booked her 2nd shot for early September, but I wonder at the rate we are going now in Ontario. Do you think we would see those time frames bumped up a month or more? Unless Ford does something stupid and stops mass vaccination site after reaching a high first dose percentage while 2nd shot numbers still linger well behind. . . . . never mind, he’d do it.

 

I think that's likely. Saskatchewan just announced today that everyone will be eligible to make their appointment by July 26 (rolling out second shot by age group), and that they expect everyone to receive their shot by early August at the latest. I think we'll hit over 70% with both doses by the end of July. Second shots for 85+ have started as of today.

 

 

[Jason]

Shake-up reported at the CDC; two high-profile officials depart

ARSTECHNICA.COM

---

Recent hiccups reportedly led to tensions within the agency.

 

[Jason]

NJ still has a mask mandate but the Costco pharmacist who sold me Sudafed today was a face shield only dummy. 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Pharmacists are to medicine as engineers are to science

[Guest]

 

Nationwide we are under 10/100k new infections. Even if you aren’t vaccinated, there is very little chance you’ll get infected on any random day of the week, and it’s just going to keep dropping from here. 

[Remarkableriots]

Coronavirus live updates: India announces more than 4,500 covid deaths in the last 24 hours, a grim world record - The Washington Post

WWW.WASHINGTONPOST.COM

---

The punishing daily toll from India's raging coronavirus outbreak surpassed the 4,400 deaths announced by the United States in January during the peak of its own surge.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Pennsylvania is dumb

 

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

 

 

[chakoo]

I was finally able to get my shot today (moderna).

 

 Where's my 5G?!?!?

 

My nurse was cool, asked what do I care about more my sleep or my work when asking to choose an arm. 

[Brick]

4 hours ago, chakoo said:

I was finally able to get my shot today (moderna).

 

 Where's my 5G?!?!?

 

My nurse was cool, asked what do I care about more my sleep or my work when asking to choose an arm. 

 

Wait what? 

[chakoo]

1 hour ago, Brick said:

 

Wait what? 

At first she started to ask what arm I wanted but quickly switched to ask what side I mostly sleep on (I said left), then she asked are you right handed? I said yes then she asked me about which  I valued more in a joking fashion incase I get a sore arm from the shot. She joked she is the same and had to think when she got her second shot what was more important her sleep or her patients. 

[Fizzzzle]

2 hours ago, chakoo said:

At first she started to ask what arm I wanted but quickly switched to ask what side I mostly sleep on (I said left), then she asked are you right handed? I said yes then she asked me about which  I valued more in a joking fashion incase I get a sore arm from the shot. She joked she is the same and had to think when she got her second shot what was more important her sleep or her patients. 

I would have chosen work. I didn't notice the soreness unless I was sleeping.

[SuperSpreader]

3 minutes ago, Fizzzzle said:

I would have chosen work. I didn't notice the soreness unless I was sleeping.

This 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Heard "you can't ask for my vaccination status because that's a HIPAA violation" in the wild yesterday (it's not)