~*Official #COVID-19 Thread of Doom*~ Revenge of Omicron Prime

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

 

 

[SilentWorld]

That’s good news. 

[Guest]

There will be very few states after June 15 with any official Covid restrictions, I’d guess.

[marioandsonic]

Just now, sblfilms said:

There will be very few states after June 15 with any official Covid restrictions, I’d guess.

 

Probably by July 4th, considering what Biden said.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, marioandsonic said:

 

Probably by July 4th, considering what Biden said.

Most states already have no restrictions, particularly ones with GOP governors or Dem governors in relatively red or purple states. You’ll start to see the solid blue states change in early June. I can’t imagine any states holding out until July given the trajectory of cases nationwide.

[CitizenVectron]

This pandemic has taught me that if another viral pandemic comes along in the next few decades and has a 5% or 10% mortality rate, we are doomed.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

4 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

This pandemic has taught me that if another viral pandemic comes along in the next few decades and has a 5% or 10% mortality rate, we are doomed.

Well

 

 

 

Just 5-10% of us anyway

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

This pandemic has taught me that if another viral pandemic comes along in the next few decades and has a 5% or 10% mortality rate, we are doomed.

The thing though is that typically viruses with high mortality rates kill so quickly that they don’t have a chance to spread very far. Covid fit an interesting place in between where it was moderately deadly compared to other common viruses but also highly transmissible, so it racked up deaths not due to being a particularly deadly virus for any given person, but because it just infected so many people.

 

A highly transmissible and highly deadly virus is unlikely, but yeah, we would be in a bad way were one to hit.

[Guest]

Vaccine waivers alone can’t solve India’s vaccine crisis

WWW.THEVERGE.COM

---

Countries will also need infrastructure and support.

This covers a good bit of why patent waivers are largely useless by themselves. The US should commit to producing and distributing billions of doses for poor countries. We can do it, and we should do it.

[AbsolutSurgen]

30 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

Vaccine waivers alone can’t solve India’s vaccine crisis

WWW.THEVERGE.COM

---

Countries will also need infrastructure and support.

This covers a good bit of why patent waivers are largely useless by themselves. The US should commit to producing and distributing billions of doses for poor countries. We can do it, and we should do it.

The developed world should have allocated billions to temporarily increase vaccine capacity to immunize the developed world. 

Our politicians should have recognized that this was probably a worthwhile investment, even if we spent billions on vaccine plants that we would close after a few years.  However, most of our politicians don't have that much foresight, and don't recognize that investing in that way would save significantly more money in the long run.  Even if you ignore the human suffering/death in the developing world, avoiding breakthrough variants would be in the developed worlds best interests.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

1 hour ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

The developed world should have allocated billions to temporarily increase vaccine capacity to immunize the developed world. 

Our politicians should have recognized that this was probably a worthwhile investment, even if we spent billions on vaccine plants that we would close after a few years.  However, most of our politicians don't have that much foresight, and don't recognize that investing in that way would save significantly more money in the long run.  Even if you ignore the human suffering/death in the developing world, avoiding breakthrough variants would be in the developed worlds best interests.

It's fucking stupid that we didn't even they're stupid amounts of money into scaling up anything that successfully went through phase 2 trials (or whatever) and stuck little American flags on syringes sending them all over the world

[Ricofoley]

Remember that weird announcement from the Trump administration that Kodak was somehow going to manufacture pharmaceuticals to fight COVID? Well...

 

Eastman Kodak says New York preparing insider-trading lawsuit

WWW.REUTERS.COM

---

The New York attorney general’s office is preparing an insider-trading lawsuit against Eastman Kodak Co (KODK.N) and its top executive, focusing on stock purchases that preceded an ill-fated deal with the Trump administration to finance a pharmaceutical venture during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the company and people familiar with the matter.

 

[69los]

Carolina Hurricanes have an estimated 12,000 (out of 18,680, not including standing room) in attendance for tonight's game.

[Remarkableriots]

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Why Covid-19 Vaccines Are Showing Up in Unusual Places

WWW.WSJ.COM

---

Health officials are trying to reach ambivalent Americans by offering vaccines in restaurants, factories and other unlikely locations.

Quote

While reasons range from safety concerns to logistical barriers to questions about eligibility, a significant chunk of unvaccinated adults say they are just too busy, aren’t able to get the time off work, haven’t gotten around to it or don’t feel it is urgent. Many are on the fence, saying that if the shot was in front of them, they would make a game-time decision.

 

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

So Canada's "Life After the Vaccine":

Quote

More people getting vaccinated means fewer people getting sick. When you get your shot, you make it safer in your community so that certain measures can be lifted and we can gather safely.

Spring

Cases are high and vaccine coverage is low.

Continue following local public health advice and maintain individual protective measures whether or not you have been vaccinated to keep yourself, your family, and your community safe.

More people need to be vaccinated before restrictions can be lifted.

Reach out to help friends, family or neighbours who might need help booking or getting to a vaccination appointment.

• Stay home.
• Stay safe.
• Get vaccinated.

Summer

Cases are low and vaccine coverage is high for one dose and increasing for second.

If 75% of those eligible for vaccines have one dose and 20% have a second dose.

Then restrictions start to lift based on conditions in your area, but you still need to follow local public health advice and keep up with individual measures like physical distancing and wearing a mask.

You can look forward to small, outdoor gatherings with family and friends.

You should still avoid crowds, but could be able to:

• go camping
• go hiking
• have picnics
• be on patios

Fall

Cases are low and two-dose vaccine coverage is high.

If 75% of those eligible for vaccines have received a full COVID-19 vaccination series.

Then local public health will be able to lift more measures and you should be able to do more activities indoors with people outside your household.

However, COVID-19 will not be eliminated so you will still need to follow some public health measures.

You could be able to attend:

• colleges
• indoor sports
• family gatherings

 

So much for "everything will be normal by Canada Day".

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Also math-y people are so fucking dumb

Quote

Brian Weaver, a 46-year-old math tutor in Chicago, says he would likely get vaccinated once the pharmacy across the street has shots available. He is confident he has already had Covid-19 and doesn’t see very many people anyway, so he doesn’t feel an urgency to get vaccinated.

 

“If I was going to get this thing bad, it would have happened by now. I did the binomial probability on it,” he says.

 

[AbsolutSurgen]

Indian variant could spread 60% faster than the Kent strain, scientist claims after SAGE advisers admitted it 'may be more transmissible' than currently dominant version of the virus

Quote

Professor Wenseleers said that the Kent variant was approximately 1.6 times as infectious as the Wuhan strain, so another 60 per cent transmissibility could make it 2.6 times faster spreading than the original virus.

He added that its strength was also 'partly linked to immune evasion'.

Early research has suggested that the variant has evolved in a way that makes immunity from vaccines or past infections slightly weaker than it is against the original virus. 

This would allow more people to get reinfected and raise the risk of it spreading in a vaccinated population. Research is still in its early stages but it does not appear to be strong enough to slip past vaccines en masse.

Professor Wenseleers added: 'This is not necessarily a problem, as long as vaccines adequately protect against serious illness and death.'

 

[Chairslinger]

Got my first dose today. Second scheduled for June 8th, and I will officially be able to rejoin society halfway through June. Dammit.

[69los]

3 minutes ago, Chairslinger said:

Got my first dose today. Second scheduled for June 8th, and I will officially be able to rejoin society halfway through June. Dammit.

[CitizenVectron]

58 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

So Canada's "Life After the Vaccine":

 

So much for "everything will be normal by Canada Day".

 

They are being overly cautious because you can't put the genie back in the bottle. It is very likely that by late June/early July we will have practical herd immunity in Canada, even exceeding the US or Israel. However, there is always a small chance that something changes. Maybe a new variant, or something else. If we take away restrictions too early, then it will be politically impossible to put them back, even for a short time. That is why governments are choosing to open up more slowly (as opposed to the US where they are rushing to be first). Politically, in Canada, the public massively supports keeping restrictions in place for as long as needed. 

 

Much like the vaccine delivery schedule, the federal government is under-promising, and will over-deliver. We'll have a relatively normalish summer, and likely a completely normal fall. Anyone who wants both shots* will be able to make an appointment by mid-to-late July, and get that shot by the end of August. Anyone who wants their first shot will be able to get it by the end of June.*

 

* Assuming anywhere but Ontario, which is massively fucking up the rollout, somehow.

[CitizenVectron]

Noice.

 

 

 

I don't think we'll keep going in a straight line until we reach 75% of 12+, though. My province is on-track to be first to get there in 18 days, but 25% of people here say they are vaccine hesitant (highest in the country). I think SK will get to 75%, but it will take 4-6 weeks, not 2-3.

[SilentWorld]

If I can’t go watch a football game in August Imma burn this whole city down.  

 

Ok not really but I’m going to be really sad. 

[AbsolutSurgen]

39 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

They are being overly cautious because you can't put the genie back in the bottle. It is very likely that by late June/early July we will have practical herd immunity in Canada, even exceeding the US or Israel. However, there is always a small chance that something changes. Maybe a new variant, or something else. If we take away restrictions too early, then it will be politically impossible to put them back, even for a short time. That is why governments are choosing to open up more slowly (as opposed to the US where they are rushing to be first). Politically, in Canada, the public massively supports keeping restrictions in place for as long as needed. 

 

Much like the vaccine delivery schedule, the federal government is under-promising, and will over-deliver. We'll have a relatively normalish summer, and likely a completely normal fall. Anyone who wants both shots* will be able to make an appointment by mid-to-late July, and get that shot by the end of August. Anyone who wants their first shot will be able to get it by the end of June.*

 

* Assuming anywhere but Ontario, which is massively fucking up the rollout, somehow.

We're at 4% vaccinated -- we can't pass the US or catch-up with Israel by mid-June.  If we used all of our doses for second doses (at our current rate, which is the highest of any large country) we could catch up to where they are today (~37%) by Mid-June.  Catching up to Israel would require us to ~triple our vaccination rate.

[SilentWorld]

1 minute ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

We're at 4% vaccinated -- we can't pass the US or catch-up with Israel by mid-June.  If we used all of our doses for second doses (at our current rate, which is the highest of any large country) we could catch up to where they are today (~37%) by Mid-June.  Catching up to Israel would require us to ~triple our vaccination rate.

Considering we’re already seeing drops in ICU and hospitalization, I’m optimistic that even getting to 70% of 12+ with one shot will create enough herd immunity that we can have things mostly open.

[CitizenVectron]

8 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

We're at 4% vaccinated -- we can't pass the US or catch-up with Israel by mid-June.  If we used all of our doses for second doses (at our current rate, which is the highest of any large country) we could catch up to where they are today (~37%) by Mid-June.  Catching up to Israel would require us to ~triple our vaccination rate.

 

A single dose provides 80-90% protection against getting the virus, and two doses provide 80-95% protection. There is almost no meaningful difference in herd immunity.

 

However, if that is the hill you want to die on, Canada is going to also pass the US for full vaccinations sometime in July, count on it. And we will pass Israel in August or September, at the latest. But by then it won't matter—70-75% of the pop having a single dose is going to stop the pandemic better than 60% having two doses.

[AbsolutSurgen]

9 minutes ago, SilentWorld said:

Considering we’re already seeing drops in ICU and hospitalization, I’m optimistic that even getting to 70% of 12+ with one shot will create enough herd immunity that we can have things mostly open.

Canada currently has 1,332 people in ICU beds -- this compares to 575 at the peak of the first wave and 881 at the peak of the second.

They are coming down -- which is in part due to vaccination -- and in part, in the GTA at least, accompanied with the most strict lockdown we've seen during the pandemic.

b.1617 has also be found in Ontario, and based on some recent studies is 60% more contagious than b.117 that caused the third wave.

[SilentWorld]

2 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

A single dose provides 80-90% protection against getting the virus, and two doses provide 80-95% protection. There is almost no meaningful difference in herd immunity.

 

However, if that is the hill you want to die on, Canada is going to also pass the US for full vaccinations sometime in July, count on it. And we will pass Israel in August or September, at the latest. But by then it won't matter—70-75% of the pop having a single dose is going to stop the pandemic better than 60% having two doses.

I hope you’re right.

[SilentWorld]

2 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Canada currently has 1,332 people in ICU beds -- this compares to 575 at the peak of the first wave and 881 at the peak of the second.

They are coming down -- which is in part due to vaccination -- and in part, in the GTA at least, accompanied with the most strict lockdown we've seen during the pandemic.

b.1617 has also be found in Ontario, and based on some recent studies is 60% more contagious than b.117 that cause the third wave.

We’re already beginning to reduce lockdown restrictions in Saskatchewan. 

[AbsolutSurgen]

Just now, SilentWorld said:

We’re already beginning to reduce lockdown restrictions in Saskatchewan. 

Saskatchewan has the advantage of not having any big cities or an international airport.

[SilentWorld]

International airport maybe. The majority of the population lives in cities though. You don’t think ICU numbers have peaked yet?

[CitizenVectron]

9 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Saskatchewan has the advantage of not having any big cities or an international airport.

 

As has been pointed out multiple times here in the past, population density isn't the main driver of outbreaks, it's population crowding. A small town that has one or two places to gather (but lower density overall) can more easily have an outbreak than a big city. It's the % of the pop that normally gets together that matters, not how close they live to each other. This is why outbreaks in SK have been larger in small communities than in cities, generally. 

[AbsolutSurgen]

Just now, CitizenVectron said:

 

As has been pointed out multiple times here in the past, population density isn't the main driver of outbreaks, it's population crowding. A small town that has one or two places to gather (but lower density overall) can more easily have an outbreak than a big city. It's the % of the pop that normally gets together that matters, not how close they live to each other. This is why outbreaks in SK have been larger in small communities than in cities, generally. 

There is a difference between population density and population crowding?

[LazyPiranha]

Yeah, absolutely.  You can jam a million people into a city and have them never get together, so a virus won’t have a chance to spread.  You can have 100 people in a city and if different groups of five or more gather close together frequently, then it’s going to get most of them.  Density isn’t necessarily going to mean they all commingle all the time.

[CitizenVectron]

4 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

There is a difference between population density and population crowding?

 

I can't remember who was the biggest advocate of this idea here. Maybe @sblfilms? But the idea goes that it doesn't matter where you live (or how close you live to someone else), it matters how often you are around other people. Theoretically, people in a 30-storey apartment building in NYC are living in a much more dense environment than the same number of people living in a rural area spread out over 30 square miles. But, if those rural people are more often gathering in local diners, halls, and living rooms, then the virus can spread more easily. So in that sense, the issue is mostly compliance around gatherings, and the culture of areas/people in terms of how often they gather. There was some good stuff posted a long time ago in this thread about how people in suburbs and rural communities end up gathering a lot more than people in cities during the pandemic, and this is why they experienced worse spread over the past year. It's really interesting stuff.