GeneticBlueprint Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I mean I’d be hesitant to say it’s over for Haley or DeSantis after just Iowa. Hard to know how all the court cases against Trump are going to shake out. If he ends up with any consequences (lol) and can’t run you want to be one of those two. And they’re basically tied right now. It’s not like DeSantis is beating her by an amount that makes a statement (yet). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I’m disappointed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ricofoley Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Ramaswamy is dropping out, so F for Respects to whatever the hell that was supposed to be Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 I just got a WaPo notification that "DeSantis edges Haley". 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 19 minutes ago, Massdriver said: I’m disappointed. If you believe that poll @SaysWho? posted about Haley voters going to Biden if Trump wins the nomination, Haley going down in flames is a good thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUFKAK Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 7 minutes ago, Jason said: If you believe that poll @SaysWho? posted about Haley voters going to Biden if Trump wins the nomination, Haley going down in flames is a good thing. Republicans voted for an actual pedo over a democrat, there’s no way they’re voting for Biden. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyser_Soze Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 It would be better if Trump went down in flames, these kinds of flames: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, Jason said: If you believe that poll @SaysWho? posted about Haley voters going to Biden if Trump wins the nomination, Haley going down in flames is a good thing. Trump winning anything at all is never good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 7 minutes ago, Massdriver said: Trump winning anything at all is never good. As I've said before, while Trump being on the ballot definitely makes me extremely nervous because if he's on the ballot then it's possible for him to win, I still think Biden beating Trump in the second election in a row is a much easier task than Biden beating Haley. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Vivek is dropping out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 21 minutes ago, Jason said: As I've said before, while Trump being on the ballot definitely makes me extremely nervous because if he's on the ballot then it's possible for him to win, I still think Biden beating Trump in the second election in a row is a much easier task than Biden beating Haley. Perhaps it would be easier for Biden to beat Trump if you believe the polls. But Trump winning the GOP primary is bad for the nation as he then controls one of the major parties in American politics and the narrative continues. A primary upset would change the dynamics within the party, hopefully having more positive long-term effects. Bottom line is Trump winning the primary is bad for the nation and sets us up for round 2. It’s worth thinking carefully about your position if you’re celebrating a victory with Trump because you speculate it may be easier for Biden to win. That’s a dangerous game to play. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, Massdriver said: It’s worth thinking carefully about your position if you’re celebrating a victory with Trump because you speculate it may be easier for Biden to win. That’s a dangerous game to play. I'm not actively celebrating Trump winning the primaries, because again, Trump being on the general election ballot means he has a chance of winning and that's scary as fuck. I just think it's probably the easier route to victory given how 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2023 went. I think those Haley voters saying they'd vote for Biden in a Biden Trump rematch are more likely to just stay home than actually vote for Biden but I'd still rather have them staying home than voting for Haley. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 DeSantis celebrates by attempting to smile Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarSolo Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 The thing with Trump being the nominee, and I’m sure people like @Jason and @SaysWho? would agree, is that Trump is genuinely hated by a large majority of the country. And women who value their bodily autonomy definitely hate him, especially now that he’s taking credit for Roe v Wade being overturned. And for the Average Joe voter? They’re going to see his trials being covered in the news once he’s the nominee and it’s going to bring back those flashes of why they didn’t want to vote for Hillary despite being the clearly more qualified candidate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Donald Trump can be hated by the vast majority of the country and still win the presidency by the usual Electoral College math which according to recent swing-state level polling data is very much a probability if trends continue going forth. This is going to be an election between two historically, deeply unpopular candidates with a voting electorate that's as gloomy about their own, the nation's, and the world's future prospects as it ever has been for a multiplicity of reasons. This isn't a situation unique to the United States as this malaise and gloom is effectively a global phenomenon from North America (see Trudeau's standing in Canada) to Latin America (see the recent election in Argentina) to Europe (do I really need to detail what's happening there?) to...you get the picture. There's little doubt in my mind that the pandemic and its economic/social effects "broke" the world or perhaps it's better to say that it worsened/accelerated the economic and social fractures that were already there -- especially in regard to the non-professional/working class -- and we're very much still experiencing its fallout. The reality is we're living through the "twilight of liberal democracy" or essentially the final death knell of the post-World War II political/economic/social order as globalization and multilateralism are effectively dead. My best advice at this early stage is to at least start preparing psychologically and emotionally for Trump 2.0 to soften the blow if/when it does happen just a little bit. Note: you'd be in good company as diplomats from several European and other countries have been meeting with Trump campaign staff in expectation of the event. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 10 hours ago, Jason said: As I've said before, while Trump being on the ballot definitely makes me extremely nervous because if he's on the ballot then it's possible for him to win, I still think Biden beating Trump in the second election in a row is a much easier task than Biden beating Haley. Put it this way: at this point, Donald Trump possibly/probably beats Joe Biden while Nikki Haley definitely beats Joe Biden. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jwheel86 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Vivek is going to be VP, isn't he? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Jwheel86 said: Vivek is going to be VP, isn't he? I don't think that any of the candidates will be VP. It's probably going to be a GOP governor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyser_Soze Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Whoever kisses his ass the most and has zero personality of his own is the VP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ort Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Elise Stefanik Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, ort said: Elise Stefanik She's very much a real possibility! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ort Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 She really checks all the boxes. Worst case scenario I've seen floating around is Tucker Carlson... but I just can't see that. Trump would think he was overshadowing him. Tim Scott feels like a possibility if he wants to check off the safe bland box again but my money would be on a woman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osxmatt Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 My money is on Kristi Noem. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, osxmatt said: My money is on Kristi Noem. That's exactly who I primarily have in mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ort Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Kari Lake... Kristi Noem is probably a front runner for the job. I really think he's going to pick a woman... and she has to be traditionally attractive because he would never run with an "average" looking woman. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, ort said: Kari Lake... Probably not because the GOP wants that AZ Senate seat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osxmatt Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: That's exactly who I primarily have in mind. I think her only gap, which is largely irrelevant for a VP, is mainstream name recognition. But she really has everything Trump wants/needs in a VP. She is a Fox News darling, she is a woman (and his biggest weakness is suburban women), she has a bit of charisma, but not too much to outshine Trump, she is a loyal foot soldier, she’s had an affair with Trump’s inner circle, she can potentially counter Trump’s 2020 COVID weakness with her record (largely imagined) in South Dakota as governor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyser_Soze Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Callista Gingrich for @b_m_b_m_b_m Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said: Put it this way: at this point, Donald Trump possibly/probably beats Joe Biden while Nikki Haley definitely beats Joe Biden. Trump v Biden: I vote for Biden Haley v Biden: I vote for Haley (or a compelling 3rd party candidate) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osxmatt Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, mclumber1 said: Trump v Biden: I vote for Biden Haley v Biden: I vote for Haley (or a compelling 3rd party candidate) I was actually listening to a podcast that touched on this. In 2020, Joe Biden wasn’t necessarily the candidate who aligned most the values of the new Democratic Party, but Democratic voters individually and collectively made the decision that he was the best person to win a national election and beat Donald Trump, over the likes of Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth. And Republicans, well, they don’t give a fuck. They’ll vote for Trump no matter what, even though Nikki Haley would likely beat Biden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ricofoley Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I have no doubt that amongst people in the center, Haley would probably outperform BIden, but I think any prediction of how that election would go would have to factor in the no fact that Trump has no real loyalty to the old guard GOP and would probably be bitching about the deep state taking the nomination from him or whatever and maybe actively telling his supporters to stay home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reputator Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 11 hours ago, Jason said: As I've said before, while Trump being on the ballot definitely makes me extremely nervous because if he's on the ballot then it's possible for him to win, I still think Biden beating Trump in the second election in a row is a much easier task than Biden beating Haley. Biden isn't going to have an easy time either way with the way his approval numbers keep dropping. He's lower at this point than any President in the last 70+ years. How Popular Is Joe Biden? | FiveThirtyEight PROJECTS.FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM Latest polls on President Joe Biden’s approval ratings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Reputator said: Biden isn't going to have an easy time either way with the way his approval numbers keep dropping. He's lower at this point than any President in the last 70+ years. How Popular Is Joe Biden? | FiveThirtyEight PROJECTS.FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM Latest polls on President Joe Biden’s approval ratings Exactly - the notion that Biden would have an "easier" time this go-around in the face of all currently available evidence truly is wishcasting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Biden can at least take heart that his approval rating isn't as bad as Trudeau's (60% disapprove vs 35% approve) or Macron (68% disapprove vs 24% approve). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osxmatt Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I think approval ratings have largely become irrelevant, a dying grasp from the old political guard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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