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2022 Midterm Thread

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Fizzzzle

Fizzzzle

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25 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

Tina Kotek pulled out the Democratic hold on the Oregon governorship.

There's a long tradition of Oregon D's generally despising their Democrat governor, as well as Portland D's despising the mayor. Its not that surprising that they can't galvanise much enthusiasm. 

 

The next Democrat candidate for Oregon governor could probably run as a straight up socialist and they'd probably win no problem.

 

Then again, the main issue people have is homelessness. The Republicans say they're going to "clean up the streets" (by... what... making homelessness illegal? Something tells me the people living on the streets don't particularly care) whereas the Democrats just don't do anything about it. That scores major points for Republicans 

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skillzdadirecta

skillzdadirecta

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I make six figures and I earn every fucking penny of it. My mom was a teenaged single parent, She had me just before her 15th birthday and by the time she was 25 she was married with 5 kids total. I grew up in one of the worse "hoods" in the country at the worse time to live in those neighborhoods; Post riot, crack era Newark New Jersey. I put myself through film school and worked for everything I ever got so if I'm a "rich snob" then I wear that shit proudly because I worked very hard to become so. In fact I'll go you one better, you can throw "Coastal Elite" on top of that too because I have little desire to VISIT the interior of this country much less live anywhere there. So... yeah. 

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TUFKAK

TUFKAK

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Just now, skillzdadirecta said:

I make six figures and I earn every fucking penny of it. My mom was a teenaged single parent, She had me just before her 15th birthday and by the time she was 19 she was 25 she was married with 5 kids total. I grew up in one of the worse "hoods" in the country at the worse time to live in those neighborhoods; Post riot, crack era Newark New Jersey. I put myself through film school and worked for everything I ever got so if I'm a "rich snob" then I wear that shit proudly because I worked very hard to become so. In fact I'll go you one better, you can throw "Coastal Elite" on top of that too because I have little desire to VISIT the interior of this country much less live anywhere there. So... yeah. 

Average white guys who failed to achieve their dreams, have to find a reason for why they did. Because the truth, they’re nothing, is too painful to accept. They don’t have our introspection my friend. And even if they did, their ego wouldn’t allow it.

 

times like these im glad I’m a bodybuilder, I accept my failure as my own; bodybuilding taught me that

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skillzdadirecta

skillzdadirecta

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5 hours ago, TUFKAK said:

Shit I used to be a registered republican lol

 

now I’m about as left and progressive as you’re gonna find in this nation.

5 hours ago, CastlevaniaNut18 said:

I had a George Bush sticker on my car in high school. But that was before I could vote. :p 

 

College was when my views really started changing. 

5 hours ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

I used to be "moderately conservative" when I was younger, but the older I got, the more I realized how goddamned repulsively unfair practically EVERYTHING about American society is.  Every Goddamned Thing.

 

Like you, the older I got and the more financially stable I became, the more my own personal politics drifted to the left.  I don't even recognize the person that I was in my 20s and early 30s at all now.

 

Shit, I went through a "Lou Dobbs phase" post college that drove people around me NUTS. I was all about "Personal responsibility" and respectability politics that some upwardly mobile black folks subscribe to... then I woke up.

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SaysWho?

SaysWho?

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Strangely, Chuck Todd of all people made a point that I will be interested in following as postmortems are conducted on this election. 

 

Obviously, we don't actually know who controls each chamber, but the fact that the House isn't already a known quantity is extraordinary, nevermind Boebert. He wondered out loud if the attack on Paul Pelosi and Trump teasing another run motivated more people to turn up on election day (particularly Dems) than otherwise would have, but then he made the point of midterms and a "New Party smell." In 2010, Republicans insisted they were getting back to true conservatism and weren't Bush Republicans. In 2018, Democrats were running as something new, having spent two years trying to iron out issues and appeal more to working class voters and suburban voters. And even going back to 1994, you can look at the "Contract with America" and Republicans' clear vision of where they wanted the country to go.

 

But 2022 Republicans aren't running on anything new. They're still strapped to Trump, trying to get his endorsement, and they continue to talk about the 2020 election and the lie that it was stolen from them. I talk to a ton of "regular" people in my line of work; I know plenty in Florida who were pro-choice but voted DeSantis because "he doesn't take any shit" (lol, some good that'll do them). But I also know people who aren't thrilled about Democrats but feel we're going backwards with our rights as Americans, and Republicans weren't offering anything besides the culmination of 50 years of stuffing the courts with ultraconservatives to take away people's rights because of some strange idea of what the "good ol' days" were.

 

A lot of this is my own tangent, but the whole "new party smell" thing was interesting to me as Republicans weren't even pretending to be different this time round. I genuinely look forward to election analysis over the next year dealing with that, abortion, democracy, and how much inflation factored into people's votes.

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SaysWho?

SaysWho?

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Also, two seats in Ohio unexpectedly went to Democrats, with a theory from one of 538's people:

 

"Democrats scored two surprise victories in the 1st and 13th districts, possibly on the coattails of Senate candidate Tim Ryan, who lost but only narrowly."

 

Quality matters. Tim Ryan was a good candidate for Ohio, and even in a loss, something good came out of it (and COULD help Dems keep the House, but we don't know yet). Same with Beto in 2018, who lost but lifted Democrats in other races.

 

538 says this is the best showing for an incumbent party since 1950.

 

XsAlP-given-biden-s-approval-dems-had-a-

 

 

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b_m_b_m_b_m

b_m_b_m_b_m

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11 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

Strangely, Chuck Todd of all people made a point that I will be interested in following as postmortems are conducted on this election. 

 

Obviously, we don't actually know who controls each chamber, but the fact that the House isn't already a known quantity is extraordinary, nevermind Boebert. He wondered out loud if the attack on Paul Pelosi and Trump teasing another run motivated more people to turn up on election day (particularly Dems) than otherwise would have, but then he made the point of midterms and a "New Party smell." In 2010, Republicans insisted they were getting back to true conservatism and weren't Bush Republicans. In 2018, Democrats were running as something new, having spent two years trying to iron out issues and appeal more to working class voters and suburban voters. And even going back to 1994, you can look at the "Contract with America" and Republicans' clear vision of where they wanted the country to go.

 

But 2022 Republicans aren't running on anything new. They're still strapped to Trump, trying to get his endorsement, and they continue to talk about the 2020 election and the lie that it was stolen from them. I talk to a ton of "regular" people in my line of work; I know plenty in Florida who were pro-choice but voted DeSantis because "he doesn't take any shit" (lol, some good that'll do them). But I also know people who aren't thrilled about Democrats but feel we're going backwards with our rights as Americans, and Republicans weren't offering anything besides the culmination of 50 years of stuffing the courts with ultraconservatives to take away people's rights because of some strange idea of what the "good ol' days" were.

 

A lot of this is my own tangent, but the whole "new party smell" thing was interesting to me as Republicans weren't even pretending to be different this time round. I genuinely look forward to election analysis over the next year dealing with that, abortion, democracy, and how much inflation factored into people's votes.

When you don’t believe you actually lost an election, as an article of faith by the party rank and file to the leader who actually did lose, why would you feel the need to change?

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