PaladinSolo Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 I know signs are super unscientific, and I live in NY, but Brindisi/Biden signs are way more popular than Trump signs here, kinda like in 2018 but moreso, and world apart from 2016 where i think i could count on one hand the number of Clinton signs. Polls match this as well, where the only poll from from the district has Trump losing by 1 and Brindisi way up over Tenney where she only barely lost in 2018. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Free RONA FOR EVERYONE! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osxmatt Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 24 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said: This is incredibly disappointing. The CPD should still host a October 15 virtual town hall “debate,” and if one of the candidates decides not to attend, that’s fine. The other candidate gets all the exposure. But now instead of nearly 60 million people watching a Biden town hall across ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, and C-SPAN, it will just be a Biden town hall on ABC. The exposure will be *significantly* less. Biden shouldn’t be penalized just because Trump is a bitch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 Former Special Forces sought by private security company to guard polling sites in Minnesota, company says - The Washington Post WWW.WASHINGTONPOST.COM The group posted the ad through a defense industry jobs site this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarSolo Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 39 minutes ago, osxmatt said: This is incredibly disappointing. The CPD should still host a October 15 virtual town hall “debate,” and if one of the candidates decides not to attend, that’s fine. The other candidate gets all the exposure. But now instead of nearly 60 million people watching a Biden town hall across ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, and C-SPAN, it will just be a Biden town hall on ABC. The exposure will be *significantly* less. Biden shouldn’t be penalized just because Trump is a bitch. Exactly. Hopefully the last debate is still a town hall format. I feel Trump will be AT LEAST somewhat restrained in front of “undecideds”. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BloodyHell Posted October 9, 2020 Share Posted October 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, MarSolo said: Exactly. Hopefully the last debate is still a town hall format. I feel Trump will be AT LEAST somewhat restrained in front of “undecideds”. Lol. Have you been watching the last four years? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 1 hour ago, MarSolo said: Exactly. Hopefully the last debate is still a town hall format. I feel Trump will be AT LEAST somewhat restrained in front of “undecideds”. Non restraint! Non restraint! You're the restraint! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarSolo Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 51 minutes ago, BloodyHell said: Lol. Have you been watching the last four years? He was pretty restrained in that Philly town hall from a month ago and if I remember correctly, the town hall debate with Clinton was the one he didn’t embarrass himself at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Lol. I assume that Tucker Carlson was attacking her for having spent her teenage years in Canada, and that the fact is somehow a negative. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: Lol 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atom631 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 3 hours ago, PaladinSolo said: I know signs are super unscientific, and I live in NY, but Brindisi/Biden signs are way more popular than Trump signs here, kinda like in 2018 but moreso, and world apart from 2016 where i think i could count on one hand the number of Clinton signs. Polls match this as well, where the only poll from from the district has Trump losing by 1 and Brindisi way up over Tenney where she only barely lost in 2018. I’m in Suffolk county and I’m seeing way more Trump cult propaganda than ever before. It’s awful out here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
run32.dll Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 6 hours ago, run32.dll said: I already did my part and voted for Big Chungus. Why did I get a guillotine for this? I was told by liberals it's just important that I vote regardless of whom. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Signifyin(g)Monkey Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 1 hour ago, atom631 said: I’m in Suffolk county and I’m seeing way more Trump cult propaganda than ever before. It’s awful out here. Just so everyone is still properly terrified, (I refuse to completely relax until Trump is officially a one-termer) Trafalgar still has Trump winning the electoral college. In their polls he’s ahead in Michigan, Ohio, Arizona and Florida. Just enough to get to 275. I know, ‘dogshit pollster’ according to Nate, but they predicted Trump’s wins in the swing states last time. Just pray, as I am, that all the headlines about Biden’s ‘insurmountable’ leads and the quickly-forming Trump’s-defeat-is-inevitable narrative don’t inspire a critical mass of Dem/swing voters (especially in those four states) to be dumb and go ‘Joe’s got this, I’m not standing in line for five hours and possibly getting Covid to vote for someone I know is gonna win’ on election night. Because we know what happens if this goes into overtime via mail-in ballots and gets kicked to the courts—and there is no statistical model capable of fully accounting for unexpected swings in mass psychology, (like an incipient surge in complacency) whether you use polls or GDP or whatever as input and no matter how fancy the algorithm. Fundamental, ‘Knight-ian’ uncertainty never goes away; don’t let Nate’s (or anyone else’s) data wizardry blind you to that. Sure, it doesn’t seem possible that the Trump cult you see in Suffolk exists in sufficient number to once again re-elect the Orange Nero, and there are like 5000 reasons why it shouldn’t happen but...2020. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Buttery. http://thehill.com//apple-touch-icon.png Pompeo says he expects more Clinton emails to be released before THEHILL.COM Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Friday he expects his agency will release more of Hillary Clinton’s emails in the coming weeks after President Trump publicly urged him to be more... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marioandsonic Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, Jason said: Buttery. http://thehill.com//apple-touch-icon.png Pompeo says he expects more Clinton emails to be released before THEHILL.COM Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Friday he expects his agency will release more of Hillary Clinton’s emails in the coming weeks after President Trump publicly urged him to be more... This will hurt Clinton's election chances Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperSpreader Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Damn Clinton is going down Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
run32.dll Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Big Chungus is going to make big gains off Bernie Bros spreading this Russian propaganda about Clinton's e-mails. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firewithin Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 55 minutes ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said: Just so everyone is still properly terrified, (I refuse to completely relax until Trump is officially a one-termer) Trafalgar still has Trump winning the electoral college. In their polls he’s ahead in Michigan, Ohio, Arizona and Florida. Just enough to get to 275. I know, ‘dogshit pollster’ according to Nate, but they predicted Trump’s wins in the swing states last time. Just pray, as I am, that all the headlines about Biden’s ‘insurmountable’ leads and the quickly-forming Trump’s-defeat-is-inevitable narrative don’t inspire a critical mass of Dem/swing voters (especially in those four states) to be dumb and go ‘Joe’s got this, I’m not standing in line for five hours and possibly getting Covid to vote for someone I know is gonna win’ on election night. Because we know what happens if this goes into overtime via mail-in ballots and gets kicked to the courts—and there is no statistical model capable of fully accounting for unexpected swings in mass psychology, (like an incipient surge in complacency) whether you use polls or GDP or whatever as input and no matter how fancy the algorithm. Fundamental, ‘Knight-ian’ uncertainty never goes away; don’t let Nate’s (or anyone else’s) data wizardry blind you to that. Sure, it doesn’t seem possible that the Trump cult you see in Suffolk exists in sufficient number to once again re-elect the Orange Nero, and there are like 5000 reasons why it shouldn’t happen but...2020. 1. Trafalgar Group isn't just considered dogshit just by Nate. Really dishonest of you to say that. Even RCP has them as a Republican pollster and they literally never do that. 2. Nate's model shows less favorable numbers for Biden compared to every other model! You singling out Nate here as he's painting a rosy picture for Biden is super weird and unsupported by evidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Pence is still claiming the governor's mansion as his address. Vice President Mike Pence and his wife had requested absentee ballots by mail WWW.INDYSTAR.COM IndyStar has learned Vice President Mike Pence and his wife, Karen Pence, in September requested absentee ballots from Marion County. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Signifyin(g)Monkey Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Joe said: 1. Trafalgar Group isn't just considered dogshit just by Nate. Really dishonest of you to say that. Even RCP has them as a Republican pollster and they literally never do that. 2. Nate's model shows less favorable numbers for Biden compared to every other model! You singling out Nate here as he's painting a rosy picture for Biden is super weird and unsupported by evidence. Not really singling him out, I just mentioned him initially because he's always the first evaluator of pollster quality people bring up and then because he's distinct among popular election forecasters in that he has a fancy statistical model that's supposed to make more accurate forecasts than its competitors by running big data through a complex algorithm. All I was saying is that no such model, however well-designed its algorithm and however comprehensive its data set, can account for fundamental, Knight-ian uncertainty--it can only account for discrete, quantifiable kinds of uncertainty. And that big, sudden shifts in group psychology are often of the Knight-ian, unquantifiable sort. Thence why the possibility of a black swan event never goes away, even in the most advanced statistical models. That's not Nate's or any other statistician's fault, though. Just reality's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 Lol Nate Silver is definitely not the only one doing that. Not sure where you get your info. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyser_Soze Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 13 hours ago, run32.dll said: I'm glad to finally have the chance to do my part and vote out Donald Trump. So it wasn't ballots down by the river with Donald Trump's name on it it was big chungus all along! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrbiggsly Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 If I were an election official I'd just assume "Big Chungus" is a vote for Trump Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anathema- Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 6 hours ago, run32.dll said: Why did I get a guillotine for this? I was told by liberals it's just important that I vote regardless of whom. Because you posted that once already. You're just looking for attention and you got it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 7 hours ago, run32.dll said: Why did I get a guillotine for this? I was told by liberals it's just important that I vote regardless of whom. It could be because you’re clearly just being a troll and virtually never post on the political board otherwise? Maybe. Of course, you’ll likely just reply to this with more troll stuff for more attention from me so I probably shouldn’t have fed you as much as I did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyser_Soze Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, Spork3245 said: It could be because you’re clearly just being a troll and virtually never post on the political board otherwise? Maybe. Of course, you’ll likely just reply to this with more troll stuff for more attention from me so I probably shouldn’t have fed you as much as I did. I think he's more of a snarky guy than a troll Also, he's an old reg making a random return to the boards. I guess discord got boring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anathema- Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, Spork3245 said: It could be because you’re clearly just being a troll and virtually never post on the political board otherwise? Maybe. Of course, you’ll likely just reply to this with more troll stuff for more attention from me so I probably shouldn’t have fed you as much as I did. I actually like runny and think he's hilarious I've just never seen him be such a tryhard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 16 minutes ago, Keyser_Soze said: I think he's more of a snarky guy than a troll Also, he's an old reg making a random return to the boards. I guess discord got boring. 12 minutes ago, Anathema- said: I actually like runny and think he's hilarious I've just never seen him be such a tryhard. Same, I usually like him, but that doesn’t change his posts and intent itt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 6 hours ago, Joe said: Lol Nate Silver is definitely not the only one doing that. Not sure where you get your info. Also part of the conservativeness of their models is because they account for the possibility that the polls are wrong. Every modeler says this! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 8 hours ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said: Just so everyone is still properly terrified, (I refuse to completely relax until Trump is officially a one-termer) Trafalgar still has Trump winning the electoral college. In their polls he’s ahead in Michigan, Ohio, Arizona and Florida. Just enough to get to 275. I know, ‘dogshit pollster’ according to Nate, but they predicted Trump’s wins in the swing states last time. Just pray, as I am, that all the headlines about Biden’s ‘insurmountable’ leads and the quickly-forming Trump’s-defeat-is-inevitable narrative don’t inspire a critical mass of Dem/swing voters (especially in those four states) to be dumb and go ‘Joe’s got this, I’m not standing in line for five hours and possibly getting Covid to vote for someone I know is gonna win’ on election night. Because we know what happens if this goes into overtime via mail-in ballots and gets kicked to the courts—and there is no statistical model capable of fully accounting for unexpected swings in mass psychology, (like an incipient surge in complacency) whether you use polls or GDP or whatever as input and no matter how fancy the algorithm. Fundamental, ‘Knight-ian’ uncertainty never goes away; don’t let Nate’s (or anyone else’s) data wizardry blind you to that. Sure, it doesn’t seem possible that the Trump cult you see in Suffolk exists in sufficient number to once again re-elect the Orange Nero, and there are like 5000 reasons why it shouldn’t happen but...2020. Trafalgar literally does its poll then gives Trump 5 points becuase of shy voters, thats it, thats their process. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyser_Soze Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 57 minutes ago, Anathema- said: I actually like runny and think he's hilarious I've just never seen him be such a tryhard. I actually wish @Runny would post here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Comet Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 8 hours ago, run32.dll said: Big Chungus is going to make big gains off Bernie Bros spreading this Russian propaganda about Clinton's e-mails. Bernie Bros don’t vote Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Signifyin(g)Monkey Posted October 10, 2020 Share Posted October 10, 2020 1 hour ago, PaladinSolo said: Trafalgar literally does its poll then gives Trump 5 points becuase of shy voters, thats it, thats their process. Not even going to dispute you there. Make it reason 5,001 why Biden should win this thing in a landslide. To which I say: I could have given you 6,001 reasons in 2016 why A.) Trump wouldn’t be elected over Hillary, B.) we wouldn’t face a worldwide pandemic in 2020 unlike anything we’ve seen since 1918, C.) There wouldn’t be riots in the streets on a scale not seen since 1968 in four years, D.) my eight-year old wouldn’t be going to school online for half the week...need I go on? So, like I said, given how batshit insane the world’s gotten, I’m not relaxing until Trump and his reign of orange terror is officially a sad four-year historical aberration in American presidential history. Then I’m drinking my Hillary victory champagne I never opened from 2016 and enacting operation ‘secretly share a celebratory joint with the wifey for the first time in we-don’t-know-how-long once the kid is in bed’ around midnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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