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~* Make America Great Depression Again -- Official Thread of Corona Virus infected markets *~


Jason

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5 minutes ago, chakoo said:

Well this is what happens when you have a competent leader who has a pretty good team in place to handle the given situation. While I don't think the situation would be as bad as the US if we ended up with schere I still think this country as a whole dodged a huge *king bullet in the last election.

 

The advantage Canada has over the United States (besides being a functional representative democracy) is that our government is largely run by bureaucrats. Besides the people at the very top of cabinet-level departments, most people in government are not appointed by the party in power, they have worked in the public sector for a long time.

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https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/13/21177024/apple-just-in-time-manufacturing-china-coronavirus-supply-chain?utm_campaign=theverge&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

 

Here is a great article for those unfamiliar with the modern supply chain. Because our manufacturing is so good nowadays, we don’t keep inventory of anything beyond a few weeks for the most conservative companies, and a few days for the most aggressive. So when the manufacturing capacity shrinks dramatically, it has ripple effects that begin almost immediately.

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19 minutes ago, elbobo said:

 

airlines and cruiselines are my go to buys once they bottom out

I was going to purchase heavy today if it went down another 3-4%, but it didn't. I was prepared to just purchase indexes 30%+ down and if it went another 20% down, I was going to accept the unrealized losses.  Now it's anyone's guess what's next. My bet is we will go down further next week as cases continue to multiply. But there's also upside risk. What if we start testing and it isn't as widespread as some models suggest? What will the stock market do if they find an existing approved drug on the market that works fairly well at reducing symptoms? We can expect some heavy rallies in the days ahead whenever a bottom is reached, and we won't truly know if it's a bear market rally or not until several weeks pass or we are out of the bear. 

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We got the announcement at Universal Orlando last night that they will be following suit with Disney and closing for the remainder of the month. Sunday is the last day I work in March. We are getting all the pay we were scheduled for, so we essentially get an unplanned paid vacation for two weeks.

 

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6 minutes ago, Massdriver said:

I was going to purchase heavy today if it went down another 3-4%, but it didn't. I was prepared to just purchase indexes 30%+ down and if it went another 20% down, I was going to accept the unrealized losses.  Now it's anyone's guess what's next. My bet is we will go down further next week as cases continue to multiply. But there's also upside risk. What if we start testing and it isn't as widespread as some models suggest? What will the stock market do if they find an existing approved drug on the market that works fairly well at reducing symptoms? We can expect some heavy rallies in the days ahead whenever a bottom is reached, and we won't truly know if it's a bear market rally or not until several weeks pass or we are out of the bear. 

Italy just had another 250 people die with thousands of new cases today, don't bet on good news here, lol. 

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9 minutes ago, Massdriver said:

I was going to purchase heavy today if it went down another 3-4%, but it didn't. I was prepared to just purchase indexes 30%+ down and if it went another 20% down, I was going to accept the unrealized losses.  Now it's anyone's guess what's next. My bet is we will go down further next week as cases continue to multiply. But there's also upside risk. What if we start testing and it isn't as widespread as some models suggest? What will the stock market do if they find an existing approved drug on the market that works fairly well at reducing symptoms? We can expect some heavy rallies in the days ahead whenever a bottom is reached, and we won't truly know if it's a bear market rally or not until several weeks pass or we are out of the bear. 

 

I'm waiting for Trump's announcement in 20 minutes with my Schwab account open to see how the markets react.

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1 minute ago, Jason said:

 

I'm waiting for Trump's announcement in 20 minutes with my Schwab account open to see how the markets react.

I was arguing with a co worker earlier whether the market will go up or down based on Trump's speech. The argument up is he is finally realizing it is an emergency. The argument down is it's an emergency.

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1 minute ago, Chris- said:

Buying now is positively insane. Let it crater and catch it as it starts to swing up eventually; the risk far outweighs whatever gains you would be leaving on the table. 

 

Buying small amounts every week (instead of waiting to buy in bulk at once) is a smarter move, I think. 

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2 minutes ago, Massdriver said:

I was arguing with a co worker earlier whether the market will go up or down based on Trump's speech. The argument up is he is finally realizing it is an emergency. The argument down is it's an emergency.

 

Considering he apparently made multiple major errors simply reading off a teleprompter on Wednesday night I'm betting on a similar performance that causes the market to go down.

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4 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Buying small amounts every week (instead of waiting to buy in bulk at once) is a smarter move, I think. 

 

Yeah, I bought a share of Delta on Tuesday at $44.23 after seeing that the high was about $60, and bought one yesterday at $37.55 yesterday and am waiting and seeing on further movement before buying more. This way I haven't blown my load only to see the price go down further, but at least got something in if the price goes back up.

   
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17 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

Considering he apparently made multiple major errors simply reading off a teleprompter on Wednesday night I'm betting on a similar performance that causes the market to go down.

 

It looks like Trump is running late for this. Surely a good omen for how this is going to go.

 

 

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32 minutes ago, Chris- said:

Buying now is positively insane. Let it crater and catch it as it starts to swing up eventually; the risk far outweighs whatever gains you would be leaving on the table. 


Since you can’t know when the bottom has hit, averaging across the spectrum of pricing tends to be the logical strategy. It won’t be as high as if you somehow bought right at the bottom, but it won’t be as low as if you went all in on Eric Trump’s advice.

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