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~*Official #COVID-19 Thread of Doom*~ Revenge of Omicron Prime

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18 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

I have no doubt that some restrictions can be lifted, little by little, over time (once the virus is slowed enough in this first wave by the measures being taken). But the one thing that can't be reintroduced (likely) for a long time is large gatherings of people. Okay, so that means no major concerts, sporting events, etc, and maybe people will accept that. But will people accept schools being closed for a year or two? Because I guarantee they will be one of the major vectors of infection, especially since kids won't show as many symptoms.


It will be interesting to see if Sweden’s gambit of keeping children in school pays off. I’ve heard a few epidemiologists who agree that it makes sense to let the virus burn through low vulnerability populations like school children, but they seem to think the near complete lack of restrictions on healthy adults is probably a bad idea.

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Remarkableriots

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https://www.google.com/amp/s/time.com/5817412/sweden-coronavirus/%3famp=true

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When Chloe Fu, 24, went for a run on Monday evening, the streets of Stockholm were filled with people drinking on restaurant patios, enjoying the first warm day of sunshine after a long winter.

“When you walk around, there is a total and utter absence of panic,” Fu says, who moved to Sweden from the United States last year. “The streets are just as busy as they would have been last spring.”

As many public spaces throughout Europe empty out—with citizens only leaving home for essential groceries or medication—life in Sweden is carrying on, mostly as usual. Children walk to school while adults meet up for dinner at their local bar. Only the vulnerable have been advised to isolate and some are working from home. Yet in Sweden, where there are 9,141 confirmed cases and 793 people have died, experts worry weaker measures may be leading to a more severe outbreak in the country of just 10 million citizens.

Sweden has a relatively high case fatality rate: as of April 8, 7.68% of the Swedes who have tested positive for COVID-19 have died of the virus. Neighboring countries, like Norway and Denmark, have case fatality rates of 1.46% and 3.85% respectively. (The U.S. case fatality rate is 3.21%.) While Sweden’s elevated case fatality rate could be a result of its low testing rates compared to its neighbors, experts say Sweden’s laissez-faire approach could also be to blame.

 

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1 minute ago, Remarkableriots said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/time.com/5817412/sweden-coronavirus/%3famp=true

 

 

Just now, skillzdadirecta said:

7.68% Mortality rate? Yikes!


Sweden is doing a completely different testing regimen than anywhere else. They are only testing healthcare, eldercare, and those who are being hospitalized. Their CFR will remain higher than other places if they use that process for deciding who gets tested.

 

But the near term effect of Sweden's policy is likely more death, but maybe no more long term. Remember that the primary goal of curve flattening isn’t that less people die of the virus generally, but that less people die as a result of going beyond the capacity of the healthcare system.

 

If Sweden’s healthcare system can handle the load, which remains to be seen, their plan may have been better than the rest of the west because they won’t have the associated negative effects.

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Remarkableriots

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https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2020/04/12/disney-on-broadway-coronavirus-fundraiser-has-been-canceled-over-streaming-rights/amp/

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‘Disney on Broadway’ had been set to air Monday on Broadwaycares.org with proceeds supporting the Broadway Cares/Equity Fights AIDS’ COVID-19 Emergency Assistance Fund, which was created to help actors and other theatre personnel through the financially difficult time.

Broadway Cares released a statement saying the streaming was canceled because they were unable to reach a deal with the American Federation of Musicians, a union representing the rights of 800,000 orchestra, theater, film and television performers.

Broadway Cares said it had already received permission from Disney, Actor’s Equity Association and SAG-AFTRA.

Monday’s rebroadcast of the November, 2019, concert would have been hosted by Ryan McCartan — who currently plays Hans in ‘Frozen’ — from his basement.

 

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Remarkableriots

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Worst news so far...

 

Spoiler

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.grammy.com/grammys/news/burning-man-2020-canceled-due-coronavirus-pandemic-announces-virtual-festival%3famp

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Burning Man, the annual weeklong arts, culture, music and community gathering held in the Black Rock Desert in northern Nevada, has canceled its 2020 edition due to the growing coronavirus pandemic. Organizers for the event, originally scheduled to take place August 30-September 7, officially announced the festival's cancelation in a post shared on the official Burning Man website Friday (April 10), citing "the painful reality of COVID-19."

 

 

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Spawn_of_Apathy

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2 hours ago, PaladinSolo said:

Maybe people will realize it can be better?

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/india-coronavirus-delhi-clean-air-pollution/2020/04/10/ac23dd1e-783e-11ea-a311-adb1344719a9_story.html?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

 

 

JSFSVPT3KAI6VNX7LF7RODPY7A.jpg&w=1440

It’s never been a case of “can it be better”. The issue has always been can we change to keep a functioning society and also make it better. 
 

As much as seeing these transformations around the world are a literal breath of fresh air. As soon as these lock downs end, air quality will go right back to poor levels. 
 

and the governments and cultures that most need to change won’t see this as a call to action to find/create better alternatives. Because right now the financial cost and amount of sacrifice needed is too high. 
 

see the example of Donald easing emission standards because “it’s good for business.”  

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Signifyin(g)Monkey

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6 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

I have no doubt that some restrictions can be lifted, little by little, over time (once the virus is slowed enough in this first wave by the measures being taken). But the one thing that can't be reintroduced (likely) for a long time is large gatherings of people. Okay, so that means no major concerts, sporting events, etc, and maybe people will accept that. But will people accept schools being closed for a year or two? Because I guarantee they will be one of the major vectors of infection, especially since kids won't show as many symptoms.

As sbl alluded to, it’s more about keeping the spread of the virus within a range the healthcare system can tolerate than stamping it out completely.  If you can keep schools open, businesses open, and in general let people live relatively normal lives, but as a result everyone has to be a little more wary of getting covid-19 at school/work/the gym/etc., I think that’s an acceptable status quo for most people.  What’s not acceptable is living in a world that looks like peak-crisis-Italy 24/7/365, where you can’t be sure there’ll be a hospital bed available for you if you fall seriously ill and need hospitalization.

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mclumber1

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28 minutes ago, Spawn_of_Apathy said:

It’s never been a case of “can it be better”. The issue has always been can we change to keep a functioning society and also make it better. 
 

As much as seeing these transformations around the world are a literal breath of fresh air. As soon as these lock downs end, air quality will go right back to poor levels. 
 

and the governments and cultures that most need to change won’t see this as a call to action to find/create better alternatives. Because right now the financial cost and amount of sacrifice needed is too high. 
 

see the example of Donald easing omission standards because “it’s good for business.”  

 

This is why the Green New Deal is unrealistic.  Not only is it way too expensive, it's impossible to implement.

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Spawn_of_Apathy

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17 minutes ago, mclumber1 said:

 

This is why the Green New Deal is unrealistic.  Not only is it way too expensive, it's impossible to implement.

It is lofty, that’s for sure. But I kind of like that about it. The problem is some loom at it and don’t even want to even make an attempt to improve things. It’s too hard, too expensive, better just keep the status quo. 
 

The reality should be somewhere in between where we are trying to drive the change. 

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Joe

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8 hours ago, sblfilms said:


It will be interesting to see if Sweden’s gambit of keeping children in school pays off. I’ve heard a few epidemiologists who agree that it makes sense to let the virus burn through low vulnerability populations like school children, but they seem to think the near complete lack of restrictions on healthy adults is probably a bad idea.

 

The children will be super spreaders. Mostly being unaffected, but going home and infecting their families. 

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1 hour ago, Jose said:

 

The children will be super spreaders. Mostly being unaffected, but going home and infecting their families. 

Yes, that’s literally the point :p. The Swedes are isolating those most at risk of hospitalization and allowing for low risk people to get it so you’re not having to isolate high risk people for a year+ until a vaccine is available.
 

They do have some differences in comparison to most of the world in that they have very few homes with elderly and children in them, and an incredibly large population of people who live alone which makes isolation procedures easier than in places where grand parents often live with their grand children.

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AbsolutSurgen

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Sweden records just SEVENTEEN new deaths from coronavirus - its lowest daily rise in a fortnight - as new infections plummet to only 466 cases

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Sweden has seen its lowest increase in the coronavirus death toll for almost a fortnight, with only 17 fatalities reported on Friday.

The number of new cases also fell again to 466, following a two-day peak of 700+ cases per day.

The low figures come despite the country not enforcing a lockdown, piling pressure on the UK and other countries that did enact stricter measures to contain the virus.

The totals, announced at 2pm today, are surprisingly low compared to the sharp increase Sweden had been experiencing during the week.

The country's total number of cases now stands at 10,151, with 887 confirmed deaths.

However, trends in the data released by the country's Public Health Authority show that confirmed deaths and cases fall over the weekend before rising again, because of what is believed to be a delay in reporting. 

The Stockholm and Sörmland regions have been hit hardest by the pandemic.

However today people were seen enjoying the sunshine outside cafes and bars in the Swedish capital on the eve of Easter Sunday, after officials did not enforce a shutdown.  

Yesterday, the daily death toll and the number of new coronavirus cases both fell. 

There 77 new deaths - down from 106 on Thursday. The number of confirmed infections went up by 544, a drop of nearly a quarter from yesterday's near-record figure of 722. 

These figures will likely be used to pressure governments which have resorted to lockdowns to battle Covid-19 to lift the draconian restrictions. 

More than 4,000 of the country's 9,685 confirmed cases are in the Stockholm area, according to official figures.  

The government has also carried out random sampling which suggests that as many as 2.5 per cent of people in Stockholm have been infected. 

That implies a higher figure of around 60,000 in the Stockholm region, suggesting that many people have had the virus without being added to the official count. 

Unlike most of Europe, Sweden has not imposed a lockdown, and primary schools, shops, cafes, restaurants and bars remain open. 

People are not generally ordered to stay at home, although they are told to isolate at the first sign of 'slight cold-like symptoms'. 

Swedes are advised to 'keep your distance' at gyms and sports facilities rather than avoiding them altogether.  

There is a ban on gatherings of more than 50 people, but the rule is far more generous than the limit of two that Britain and Germany have set. 

Finland has already moved to limit border crossings, fearing that the virus will spread from Sweden.  

The government in Stockholm has emphasised taking personal responsibility for public health, but most of its measures are not enforced. 

The lack of a lockdown makes Sweden an outlier, but the government has rejected Donald Trump's claims that the country is 'suffering' more than others. 

Asked at a White House briefing on Tuesday what advice he would offer to leaders who were sceptical of social distancing measures, Trump replied: 'There aren't too many of them... They talk about Sweden, but Sweden is suffering very gravely.' 

Swedish foreign minister Ann Linde pushed back against Trump's claim that Sweden was not doing enough. 

'We are doing about the same things that many other countries are doing, but in a different way,' Linde told broadcaster TV4. 

'We trust that people take responsibility.'

Government epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said he did not believe Sweden was suffering any more than any other country. 

'No, we don't share his opinion,' he told reporters, referring to Trump. 

'Of course we're suffering. Everybody in the world is suffering right now, in different ways,' he said. 

'But Swedish healthcare, which I guess he alludes to... is taking care of this in a very good manner. 

'It's a lot of work, it's a lot of stress on the personnel and it's really a fight for them every day, but it's working.' 

Prime minister Stefan Lofven says that while most measures were not bans he still expected all Swedes to comply.

'The advise from the authorities are not just little hints,' he said. 'It is expected that we follow them every day, every minute.'  

Of course, this is from the Daily Mail -- so it should be taken with a grain of salt.

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43 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

The Swedes have an exploding death rate more than twice their neighbors.

That is the expectation, more deaths up front but not more deaths overall and moving beyond the virus more rapidly. Again, the curve flattening is primarily about preventing deaths as a result of medical system collapse and they don’t seem to be at risk of that based on the rate at which new patients are being hospitalized.

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PaladinSolo

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21 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

That is the expectation, more deaths up front but not more deaths overall and moving beyond the virus more rapidly. Again, the curve flattening is primarily about preventing deaths as a result of medical system collapse and they don’t seem to be at risk of that based on the rate at which new patients are being hospitalized.

No, its literally more deaths all around, because you don't even have a chance at a vaccine now, its an insane strategy.

 

EVaqC1BWsAE44TE?format=jpg&name=large

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10 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

No, its literally more deaths all around, because you don't even have a chance at a vaccine now, its an insane strategy.

 

EVaqC1BWsAE44TE?format=jpg&name=large

No model has accurately predicted anything regarding Covid deaths to date, they’ve all over estimated. The data so far is matching what Sweden has expected would occur though, and they haven’t nuked their economy to do it. We will see who had the better plan in a year or so.

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SaysWho?

SaysWho?

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21 hours ago, cusideabelincoln said:

Yeah I'm seeing my local social group thinks the shutdown is meant to control us into accepting authoritarian policies, big pharma is trying to mandate vaccines, Fauci is killing people because he's "actively not endorsing" hydroxychloroquine, and all kinds of conspiracy bullshit.

 

Rural America is so blind.

 

I also tried to show some of these people articles about the senators trading stocks after their private briefing and they completely blew it off as perfectly normal! Ahaha.

 

My gf said she talked to someone in another country, forgot which, and said person said there was conspiracy theories there that are similar, i.e. their government has concocted this so they could get more control over them.

 

Interesting how each country has their conspiracy theorists who think this disease revolves around them and their country.

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CitizenVectron

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18 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

No model has accurately predicted anything regarding Covid deaths to date, they’ve all over estimated. The data so far is matching what Sweden has expected would occur though, and they haven’t nuked their economy to do it. We will see who had the better plan in a year or so.

 

I hope that they are correct, though I think that even if history proves them correct, it was kind of a dumb risk to take. Better to at least have a few weeks of planned lock down until the numbers become more clear.

 

EDIT - Although, as you said previously, different countries will have different challenges. Sweden has the advantage of having a geography and culture of isolation already, so the disease would spread more slowly than in a place with more human contact (and dense living inside single dwellings). A solution for Sweden (or say, a rural country) is going to be different than in say, the Philippines, which has a lot of multi-generational homes and is more dense.

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26 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

I hope that they are correct, though I think that even if history proves them correct, it was kind of a dumb risk to take. Better to at least have a few weeks of planned lock down until the numbers become more clear.

 

EDIT - Although, as you said previously, different countries will have different challenges. Sweden has the advantage of having a geography and culture of isolation already, so the disease would spread more slowly than in a place with more human contact (and dense living inside single dwellings). A solution for Sweden (or say, a rural country) is going to be different than in say, the Philippines, which has a lot of multi-generational homes and is more dense.


Yeah, I think that’s something that will become more clear with Covid over time is that each nation, and even regions within nations, may have needed different policies to handle the virus. A LOT of it has to do with things that are kinda baked into the cake already, like geography, social norms, and demographics.

 

But much like weather vs. climate, we can’t take a day or week at a time and say “SEEEEE!1!1!” We will have to look at the entirety of the situation in the years to come to see what the effects of various policy decisions were.

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