~*Official #COVID-19 Thread of Doom*~ Revenge of Omicron Prime

[LazyPiranha]

1 hour ago, Jose said:

I like Teslas, so I have tried to defense Musk before. But wtf is this asshole's problem?

Hey, remember in happier times when that dipshit launched his own car into space as a massive vanity project and I was all "this guy is a fucking loon" and everyone else was all "lighten up, he's having fun with science?"  Good times, good times.

[CitizenVectron]

Okay lol

 

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

It appears the Canadian public believes that the pandemic will be worse in the winter, will result in long-term changes to society, and that those changes will be positive and focuses on health and well-being:

 

 

 

[thewhyteboar]

 

[skillzdadirecta]

4 hours ago, SimpleG said:

Hmm if I was them I put those ass's away cause they aint worth getting sick over. That poor Asian girl in the middle got a flat ass.

They are suffer from severe cases of "Nossatall" also known as "No-ass-at-all". 

[Tao 2.0]

On 4/29/2020 at 9:39 AM, Chris- said:

@Tao 2.0’s old stories about being hit on by the same closeted Hasid were always a good time. 

Shit, I can't believe anyone remembers that. But yeah, that guy was a fucking creep. Not because of his preferences, and I do empathize with his situation and all, but just the approach. There is no situation where approaching someone in a minivan is ever going to work in your favor, unless you're literally someone's mom and carrying badly needed orange slices.

[Jason]

 

[skillzdadirecta]

On 4/29/2020 at 9:13 AM, Jose said:

 

Hasidics are the most insane culture I have encountered in my life by far and it's not even close. Any criticism of them gets you called an anti-semitic and morons like DeBlasio certainly do not help.

 

 

There was a strip club in Queens I used to... frequent... when I was in college and this was in THE HOOD with a primarily black and hispanic clientele. Except for the Hasidic regulars who used to be in there like clockwork. This dudes were comfortable and didn't feel the least bit out of place. The girls used to love those dudes too 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

I am currently awaiting a joint Blue Angels/Thunderbirds overflight

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

And that was that.

[CitizenVectron]

20 minutes ago, Emperor Diocletian II said:

And that was that.

 

I bet the nurses in your city now feel totally appreciated and refreshed.

[Chairslinger]

2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

 

I am a little unclear on what this Tweet and the response to the Tweet is saying.

 

I am assuming the CNN Tweet is not from today as even the Trump admin, presumably, is not dumb enough to project that on the day we reached it.

 

However, that said, is the Tweet saying it was only ten days ago the WH model was projecting 66k dead by August?

 

I had heard that projection thrown around to show both the incompetence of the admin, and the true extent to just how bad things are, but I assumed it was a projection from March or early April when the future was a bit more murky. Only ten days ago anyone with two brain cells could have looked at the trajectory, done a little math, and known damn well it wasn't going to take til fucking August to get to 65k. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

The lower bound of the most accepted US model projected 66,000 mortalities by August.

 

That was never the upper bound/maximum of the model.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

10 minutes ago, Emperor Diocletian II said:

The lower bound of the most accepted US model showed 66,000 mortalities by August.

The IHME model, the most optimistic of what I've seen, had roughly 60k deaths by august earlier this week. We still haven't started trending down, as a country, from ~30k new cases a day and we're opening up!

 

We're easily going to be passing 100k deaths by the end of June, if not much sooner.

[69los]

[mclumber1]

22 minutes ago, Emperor Diocletian II said:

The lower bound of the most accepted US model projected 66,000 mortalities by August.

 

That was never the upper bound/maximum of the model.

 

By only talking about the lower bound of the model, the administration has embarrassed themselves again.  If they want to look "good" in the eyes of the public, they need to talk about the worst case scenario.  That way if we never reach that number, they can chalk it up as a success. 

[CitizenVectron]

12 minutes ago, 69los said:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

If it's similar to SARS, then a 2-year immunity period could reasonably be expected:

 

 

[Chairslinger]

29 minutes ago, Emperor Diocletian II said:

The lower bound of the most accepted US model projected 66,000 mortalities by August.

 

That was never the upper bound/maximum of the model.

 

19 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

The IHME model, the most optimistic of what I've seen, had roughly 60k deaths by august earlier this week. We still haven't started trending down, as a country, from ~30k new cases a day and we're opening up!

 

We're easily going to be passing 100k deaths by the end of June, if not much sooner.

 

 

Ok, but is this some kind of limitation on how often the projection updates?

 

Optimistic lower bound or not, predicting 65k dead by August just last week is pure fantasy. That would be like defending a projection of 5 billion dead by June 22nd by saying it was just a pessimistic worst case scenario.

[Spawn_of_Apathy]

7 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

If it's similar to SARS, then a 2-year immunity period could reasonably be expected:

 

Are they even sure there is an immunity period? I thought the science was still out on this? 
 

I have seen some cases of reinfection were false positives, detecting dead Covid cells. But I had not yet seen it ruled that you cannot get reinfected. 

[Ricofoley]

They seem pretty positive that there's some immunity period now, and that the "re-infections" are due to inaccurate tests and the fact that you can have a very long "shedding" period once you have this thing. I don't think they really how long for sure immunity lasts yet. I hadn't heard that it was 2 years for SARS. It would certainly help things if this was similar.

[skillzdadirecta]

14 minutes ago, Ricofoley said:

They seem pretty positive that there's some immunity period now, and that the "re-infections" are due to inaccurate tests and the fact that you can have a very long "shedding" period once you have this thing. I don't think they really how long for sure immunity lasts yet. I hadn't heard that it was 2 years for SARS. It would certainly help things if this was similar.

Where have you heard that there is definitively immunity conferred? As far as I know,  it's still a reasonable assumption and they haven't confirmed it yet. This was my understanding as recent as yesterday. 

[Jason]

[Spawn_of_Apathy]

18 minutes ago, Jason said:

Why does this homeless, grade school dropout think they’ll have an easier time getting food with REPubLICAN leadership? 

[Ricofoley]

1 hour ago, skillzdadirecta said:

Where have you heard that there is definitively immunity conferred? As far as I know,  it's still a reasonable assumption and they haven't confirmed it yet. This was my understanding as recent as yesterday. 

I don't know if it's confirmed for certain, because I don't really know what metric needs to be reached for them to declare that it's been confirmed for certain. But in the last couple of weeks there have been a few studies suggesting the previously announced "reinfections" that turned out not be the case and infectious disease experts that seem to know what they're talking about were pretty uniformly replying with stuff like "no surprise, we were never too concerned that reinfection this soon was happening."

[GeneticBlueprint]

3 hours ago, Emperor Diocletian II said:

I am currently awaiting a joint Blue Angels/Thunderbirds overflight

Awesome. We had an F-35 demonstration team. 

[Iculus]

3 hours ago, Emperor Diocletian II said:

I am currently awaiting a joint Blue Angels/Thunderbirds overflight

This happened in Atlanta a of couple of hours ago. These idiots were parked on every square inch of non-drivable concrete they could find. Traffic was fucked for miles. FUCK!

 

[osxmatt]

1 hour ago, Jason said:

 

[Ricofoley]

He started out writing "Make California Replicants Again." He's part of that Replicant underground group from Blade Runner 2049 and realized at the last second he should keep that on the d/l

[skillzdadirecta]

1 hour ago, Ricofoley said:

I don't know if it's confirmed for certain, because I don't really know what metric needs to be reached for them to declare that it's been confirmed for certain. But in the last couple of weeks there have been a few studies suggesting the previously announced "reinfections" that turned out not be the case and infectious disease experts that seem to know what they're talking about were pretty uniformly replying with stuff like "no surprise, we were never too concerned that reinfection this soon was happening."

 

It has not been confirmed and they don't know for sure. They seem to be reasonably certain that there is some immunity based on how past Coronaviruses have behaved but they don't know how long any presumed immunity lasts and to what degree folks are protected. They just don't know. They assume  but they always say that with a caveat. Here's just ONE article discussing antibodies and immunity from yesterday

 

Quote

If you have antibodies to any virus, it means you’ve been exposed to that virus (or a vaccine for it). Your body remembers that exposure and will recognize the virus if you get exposed again. But having antibodies doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll be able to fight off a second infection. For that, you need sufficient numbers of antibodies, and they need to be effective antibodies. We don’t yet know the degree to which people with coronavirus antibodies are protected from getting COVID-19 a second or third time.

 

That's why Sweden's strategy is so risky because they are assuming that herd immunity can be reached if a significant number of people get infected and we just don't know if this virus works that way yet because it is a new virus in humans. This M.I.T. article discusses the possibility that COVID immunity doesn't last as long as we may hope.

 

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/27/1000569/how-long-are-people-immune-to-covid-19/

 

Quote

Starting in the fall of 2016 and continuing into 2018, researchers at Columbia University in Manhattan began collecting nasal swabs from 191 children, teachers, and emergency workers, asking them to record when they sneezed or had sore throats. The point was to create a map of common respiratory viruses and their symptoms, and how long people who recovered stayed immune to each one.

 

The research included four coronaviruses, HKU1, NL63, OC42, and C229E, which circulate widely every year but don’t get much attention because they only cause common colds. But now that a new coronavirus in the same broad family, SARS-CoV-2, has the world on lockdown, information about the mild viruses is among our clues to how the pandemic might unfold.

What the Columbia researchers now describe in a preliminary report is cause for concern. They found that people frequently got reinfected with the same coronavirus, even in the same year, and sometimes more than once. Over a year and a half, a dozen of the volunteers tested positive two or three times for the same virus, in one case with just four weeks between positive results.

 

That’s a stark difference from the pattern with infections like measles or chicken pox, where people who recover can expect to be immune for life. For the coronaviruses “immunity seems to wane quickly,” says Jeffrey Shaman, who carried out the research with Marta Galanti, a postdoctoral researcher.

 

Quote

Whether covid-19 will follow the same pattern is unknown, but the Columbia results suggest one way that much of the public discussion about the pandemic could be misleading. There is talk of getting “past the peak” and “immunity passports” for those who’ve recovered. At the same time, some hope the infection is more widespread than generally known, and that only a tolerable death total stands between us and high enough levels of population immunity for the virus to stop spreading.

 

All that presumes immunity is long-lived, but what if it is fleeting instead? “What I have been telling everyone—and no one believes me, but it’s true—is we get coronaviruses every winter even though we’re seroconverted,” says Matthew Frieman, who studies the virus family at the University of Maryland. That is, even though most people have previously developed antibodies to them, they get the viruses again. “We really don’t understand whether it is a change in the virus over time or antibodies that don’t protect from infection,” he says.

 

[marioandsonic]

Just found out someone from my dad's workplace (he works in construction) tested positive.  Even worse, this person was working right next to my dad earlier that week.  My dad blew up at two of his managers over it, because he has no idea what he will do on Monday.  He and my mom will likely go into quarantine.

 

Fun.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Ugh - my roommate is now going on and on about how this situation is compromising her freedom, and then she busted out that stupid Benjamin Franklin quote.

 

I mean this one "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

If there is no effective vaccine, which we should be preparing for regardless if there is an effective/actual/functional vaccine (let alone there being long term immunity), we need to eliminate it the old fashioned way--testing, testing, testing, testing, isolation of positive cases, contact tracking, complete disinfection of  physical locations with known cases, and more testing.

 

Without a host, the virus dies.

 

That said, the United States will fail at this task. There's no way to sugar coat this.

[CastlevaniaNut18]

33 minutes ago, Emperor Diocletian II said:

Ugh - my roommate is now going on and on about how this situation is compromising her freedom, and then she busted out that stupid Benjamin Franklin quote.

 

I mean this one "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."

Frankly, I'm shocked you'd associate with such people!