Commissar SFLUFAN Posted August 15, 2019 Share Posted August 15, 2019 I actually do think the US will narrowly avoid the technical definition of a recession, but GDP growth will be so anemic that it won't make much difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Signifyin(g)Monkey Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 Interesting take on why the yield curve may have lost some of its predictive power, and not in a good way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 Upside down smile emoji 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 56 minutes ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said: Interesting take on why the yield curve may have lost some of its predictive power, and not in a good way. Quote Forecasting With The Yield Curve Given the technical distortion of the bond market, we find it kind of silly with statements such as “what is the bond market telling us?” Nothing! There is no price discovery. Given the intervention and distortion to bond yields caused by the Fed and foreign central banks, who knows what the right interest rate is for longer-term Treasury securities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 Quote Upshot There may or may not be a recession on the horizon but we will not divine it from a yield curve inversion. The only reason why the yield curve matters to us is because the market thinks it matters. To twist a bit the Keynes beauty contest analogy, we devote our intelligences not to what we think the ugliest dog is but try and anticipate what the market believes is the ugliest dog. What the yield curve does signal, at least to us, is that there is a massive global bond bubble and that central banks have lost control of their curves, which kind of scares the bejeesus out of us when we start to think about it. Oh dear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 Monetary policy is dead, gg everybody! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyser_Soze Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 Obviously Trump planned this so he could buy property cheap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chakoo Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 17 minutes ago, Keyser_Soze said: Obviously Trump planned this so he could buy Greenland cheap. Updated your text to reflect the latest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 1 hour ago, chakoo said: Updated your text to reflect the latest. My Greenland stocks dropped like a rock these last few days! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 8 hours ago, sblfilms said: Monetary policy is dead, gg everybody! This is a great way to describe it. The central banks are practically out of arrows in their monetary policy quivers - all they really have left are negative interest rates. This means that the nominally non-political monetary policy path has been closed off which only leaves the inherently political fiscal policy path open. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chairslinger Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 *Me pretending I understand even half of what is being said in this thread* 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 50 minutes ago, SFLUFAN said: This is a great way to describe it. The central banks are practically out of arrows in their monetary policy quivers - all they really have left are negative interest rates. This means that the nominally non-political monetary policy path has been closed off which only leaves the inherently political fiscal policy path open. Indeed. Given how broken our political systems are at this point, we are likely out of any real options to address looming issues. Start buying up cans of spam and beans. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted August 16, 2019 Author Share Posted August 16, 2019 Trump, banking on strong economy to win reelection, frets over a possible downturn Summary: Administration officials are not actively planning for a recession because they do not believe one will occur, and they are worry that making such plans would validate a negative narrative about the economy and precipitate a crash, according to people involved in internal discussions. Quote Trump is banking on a strong economy to win a second term in 2020, and in recent weeks he has impulsively lashed out at the Federal Reserve, pressured Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to label China a “currency manipulator,” and unexpectedly delayed tariffs on Chinese imports out of fear they could depress holiday retail sales. Yet despite gyrations in the U.S. stock market and economic slowdowns in other countries, officials in the White House, at the Treasury Department and throughout the administration are planning no new steps to attempt to stave off a recession. Rather, Trump’s economic advisers have been delivering the president upbeat assessments in which they argue that the domestic economy is stronger than many forecasters are making it out to be. Quote Privately, however, the president has sounded anxious and apprehensive. From his golf club in New Jersey, where he is vacationing this week, Trump has called a number of business leaders and financial executives to sound them out — and they have provided him a decidedly mixed analysis, according to two people familiar with the discussions who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the conversations were confidential. Trump has a somewhat conspiratorial view, telling some confidants that he distrusts statistics he sees reported in the news media and that he suspects many economists and other forecasters are presenting biased data to thwart his reelection, according to one Republican close to the administration who was briefed on some of the conversations. lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 26 minutes ago, SaysWho? said: Trump has a somewhat conspiratorial view, telling some confidants that he distrusts statistics he sees reported in the news media and that he suspects many economists and other forecasters are presenting biased data to thwart his reelection, according to one Republican close to the administration who was briefed on some of the conversations. Wow who could have seen this coming from this administration???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firewithin Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 your bank accounts showing $0.00 is fake news! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted August 16, 2019 Author Share Posted August 16, 2019 14 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Wow who could have seen this coming from this administration???? "The tour guide I dislike is telling me there's a waterfall up ahead and to row to the side so we can get off the boat, but it'll only confirm that there's a waterfall if I listen, so I'm going to keep rowing." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foosh Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 you all need to save more Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marioandsonic Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 I'm not going to even pretend I understand most of the things posted in this thread. Just tell me if this means we're going to have a recession within the next year or so before the election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 2 hours ago, foosh said: you all need to save more I love it when boomers (not you) say this to young people without any sense of irony/sarcasm, when most can barely afford to just survive. I am fortunate enough to be putting away a lot in savings each month (including my company-matched retirement plan and emergency savings, around $1,800/mo total), but I also live in a low-cost city (1,000 sqft 2.5-bed apartment for $1,400/mo) with a decent-paying job ($57k/yr) for the area. I also benefited from free living with my mom for many years, and a good network to help my find jobs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 16 minutes ago, marioandsonic said: I'm not going to even pretend I understand most of the things posted in this thread. Just tell me if this means we're going to have a recession within the next year or so before the election. Full-blown recession? Probably no. Anemic growth that will "feel" like a recession? Probably so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, SFLUFAN said: Full-blown recession? Probably no. Anemic growth that will "feel" like a recession? Probably so. So basically it won't be a stock market recession, but everyday working people will feel like it's a recession. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foosh Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 26 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: I love it when boomers (not you) say this to young people without any sense of irony/sarcasm, when most can barely afford to just survive. I am fortunate enough to be putting away a lot in savings each month (including my company-matched retirement plan and emergency savings, around $1,800/mo total), but I also live in a low-cost city (1,000 sqft 2.5-bed apartment for $1,400/mo) with a decent-paying job ($57k/yr) for the area. I also benefited from free living with my mom for many years, and a good network to help my find jobs. you can stretch your savings by getting rid of luxury items, such as a refrigerator and healthcare. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, Jason said: So basically it won't be a stock market recession, but everyday working people will feel like it's a recession. Exactly! Relatedly: Trump called the CEOs of the biggest US banks on Wednesday as the stock market plunged Quote The president asked the three men to give him a read on the health of the U.S. consumer, according to one of the people. The executives responded that the consumer is doing well, but that they could be doing even better if issues including the China-U.S. trade war were resolved, this person said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foosh Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 so youre saying my stock portfolio will be fine? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, foosh said: so youre saying my stock portfolio will be fine? It will probably suffer a fairly standard correction, but nothing more serious than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 This isn't even bad for your 401k/etc if you're not retiring soon. You'll get to buy in on the cheap. The people who get hosed are people who are imminently/currently living off their 401k. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoldenTongue Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, Jason said: This isn't even bad for your 401k/etc if you're not retiring soon. You'll get to buy in on the cheap. The people who get hosed are people who are imminently/currently living off their 401k. The investment portfolios of those two groups should not be in any way similar. If you’re living off of your 401k, it should not be (heavily) portioned to anything with as much volatility as the stock market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, Jason said: This isn't even bad for your 401k/etc if you're not retiring soon. You'll get to buy in on the cheap. The people who get hosed are people who are imminently/currently living off their 401k. If you are close to retirement or retired, your portfolio shouldn’t be structured in a way to get really banged up by a big correction. But a lot of people don’t adjust their portfolios from aggressive to more conservative holdings like they should. We need better education in these areas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, sblfilms said: If you are close to retirement or retired, your portfolio shouldn’t be structured in a way to get really banged up by a big correction. But a lot of people don’t adjust their portfolios from aggressive to more conservative holdings like they should. We need better education in these areas. Ah yeah, this reminded me that my options included one where I can just pick the target retirement date and it'll automatically adjust over time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Firewithin Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Jason said: So basically it won't be a stock market recession, but everyday working people will feel like it's a recession. oh so just a normal day. nothing to see here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodger Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 Trump's entire re-election chance basically hinges on people showing up to the polls thinking so what he's mean to brown people, I've got it pretty good. And a few brown people showing up thinking so what he's mean to other brown people, I've got it pretty good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stepee Posted August 16, 2019 Share Posted August 16, 2019 You are missing “Fuck yeah, he’s mean to brown people, I don’t even care how good it’s going” 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chadatog Posted August 17, 2019 Share Posted August 17, 2019 My brother, sister, and I will only be retiring comfortably because of the whole must withdraw from their pensions and other retirement funds after 65 (and cause our parents love us of course). They are contributing to our roth ira's the max for a year, every year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBladeRoden Posted August 17, 2019 Share Posted August 17, 2019 What if I'm 35 and have no money invested anywhere? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marioandsonic Posted August 17, 2019 Share Posted August 17, 2019 7 hours ago, TheBladeRoden said: What if I'm 35 and have no money invested anywhere? Then you're like me (except 5 years older), which means you're fucked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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