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2022 Midterm Thread

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skillzdadirecta

skillzdadirecta

Posted
Posted
Just now, Siebzehn said:

Is that a winning issue nationwide though?

Hell no and he's a clown. Folks i know that live in Florida SWEAR he's not ready for primetime and is gonna be exposed when he goes national, probably by Trump himself.  Also he did a LOT in Florida to suppress the vote and ensure his victory. Turn out in Florida was actually DOWN this year compared to other states. I wonder why? :hmm:

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Kal-El814

Kal-El814

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Chairslinger said:

The problem with just dumping Trump is I don't think the party knows who they are once Trump is gone.

 

Their policies were already quite unpopular in 2016(which is part of the reason they chose the cult of personality to begin with). By the time 2024 rolls around it will have been nearly a decade since any answer to any policy question put to them was, "Whatever Trump most recently said about that particular topic". 

 

The fact that the party has little in terms of future prospects outside of the "Trumpism without Trump" idea shows how rudderless they are right now. I am pretty pessimistic about a lot of stuff in politics, but I remain pretty optimistic about the fact that Smart Trump/Trump without the baggage will be a spectacular failure for them. I despise Trump as much as anyone, but believing you can just plug in a bland politician that parrots his meaningless word salad to take his place is to completely misunderstand the unique appeal he had. Trump is actually more popular than the party. His problem is that he has proven incapable of stirring up that support without causing an even greater political backlash.

 

Keep in mind, Fox was anti-Trump in 2016....until they weren't.

 

I will go on record as saying no. Even the chance of DeSantis taking over in the next 2 years is more about how the party and rightwing propaganda machine present him than the man himself. 

 

The question that I don't think anyone has the answer to is if Trump's 4 years in office improved his ability to project his appeal to the base, or hindered it. All the scandals and baggage suggests the latter. The fact that he got 75 million votes in 2020 suggests the former.

 

Yeah I think I agree with most of this.

 

I just don't know how for how long grievance politics can be successful for the GOP at a national level, especially if they continue to flail against things that are popular.

 

13 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

DeSantis is way better at culture warring than any GOP star since Reagan, IMO. 

 

I picked Walker specifically because I remember hearing similar comments about him before he faded away last time. Difficult for me to pick up on vibes because of my priors and them seeming like absolute twats to me. :p

 

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osxmatt

osxmatt

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27 minutes ago, Ominous said:

Was watching Fox and Friends and some chud was saying how democrats had to take time off school when Trump won, calling them babies....brah....you shit stains literally stormed the capital....


I’ll be very curious to see the demographic turnout of this election. I think most polls *massively* undervalued Gen Z. Pretty much anyone 18-25 had to spend their most formative years engulfed in the bullshit of Trump and Trumpism. 

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Jason

Jason

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Just now, Kal-El814 said:

 

Yeah I think I agree with most of this.

 

I just don't know how for how long grievance politics can be successful for the GOP at a national level, especially if they continue to flail against things that are popular.

 

 

I picked Walker specifically because I remember hearing similar comments about him before he faded away last time. Difficult for me to pick up on vibes because of my priors and them seeming like absolute twats to me. :p

 

 

Walker has tried for office before?

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stepee

stepee

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3 minutes ago, Siebzehn said:

Is that a winning issue nationwide though?

 

I don’t think it is if you are trying to win the popular vote, but I do think things are set up in a way where running off of hate is still a viable approach towards winning the EC and presidency. I think there are still enough people who just don’t pay attention or have otherwise been brainwashed by fox news that if you combine an amped up base of bigots, you win in enough key areas to take it.

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Jason

Jason

Posted
Posted
Just now, osxmatt said:

I’ll be very curious to see the demographic turnout of this election. I think most polls *massively* undervalued Gen Z. Pretty much anyone 18-25 had to spend their most formative years engulfed in the bullshit of Trump and Trumpism. 

 

I saw something that Democratic turnout for something like 18-34 was very high, and that the overall 18-34 turnout was being massively depressed by 18-34 Republicans staying home.

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Guest

Guest

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6 minutes ago, Siebzehn said:

Is that a winning issue nationwide though?


It isn’t so much an issue as it is an approach to marketing less popular policy positions by finding specific areas of broad-ish consensus to push us/them narratives. He knows what sells and avoids most of what doesn’t.

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Chairslinger

Chairslinger

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I am kind of surprised how different my opinion of DeSantis is than a lot of you.

 

Florida is a red state now and was before DeSantis. In fact, Florida was already a red state on the election night when DeSantis BARELY won the first time.

 

Most of DeSantis's appeal is the result of conservative "elite" wishful thinking and training wheels.

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Siebzehn

Siebzehn

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2 minutes ago, sblfilms said:


It isn’t so much an issue as it is an approach to marketing less popular policy positions by finding specific areas of broad-ish consensus to push us/them narratives. He knows what sells and avoids most of what doesn’t.

He just strikes me as a candidate that struck while the iron was hot (COVID in response to lockdowns) and resonated with people on that specific issue. He broadened it a bit by whining about "woke" people and demonizing trans people and that was enough to beat someone as uninspiring as Charlie Crist, sure, but I just don't see how that would have enough appeal to win a national election. 

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GeneticBlueprint

GeneticBlueprint

Posted
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Just now, Siebzehn said:

Are you equating it to Trump as an example of it working before? Because in that case I would definitely disagree. Trump was a cult of personality, and that isn't exactly Desantis' strong suit

 

Cons don't have any politics or policy except for the politics of grievance. They are fascists after all.

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stepee

stepee

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It is kinda sad to watch this race to the bottom where you basically look for the absolute worst piece of shit human you can find and go yep, there is the GOP forerunner. It’s the only reason Desantis is where he is, he is terrible to other people and loud about it. 

 

Way too much of this country votes for nothing more than whoever will promise to treat other people the worst and it’s really fucking gross.

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Littleronin

Littleronin

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16 minutes ago, marioandsonic said:

AZ and NV are still showing as 68% and 75% respectfully of the votes counted.  It's been that way since last night.  Are we not going to get the final results until later this week?


Man I hated waking up this morning and seeing election deniers and conspiracist leading in most of the statewide races.

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Commissar SFLUFAN

Commissar SFLUFAN

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Alright - I'm gonna be the downer and say that based on Ralston's latest posts, I'm not especially hopeful of CCM eeking out the win in Nevada due the large amount of what are sure to be heavily GOP-leaning mail ballots in rural counties.

 

Quote

Elko, Douglas and Nye are larger rurals and almost surely will add thousands of ballots to Laxalt's total, make CCM's climb more difficult.

 

In all likelihood control of the Senate is going to come down to the Georgia run-off.

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Pikachu

Pikachu

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13 minutes ago, CastletonSnob said:

How much of DeSantis and Abbott’s wins are due to their states being red, and how much is due to Florida and Texas’s Democratic Party being incompetent?

 

It's a good bit of both. Florida got redder with all the conservatives that moved from NY and CA during the pandemic. Also Latinos really like Desantis.

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Chairslinger

Chairslinger

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Posted

There are a lot of silent Never Trumpers in the Republican Party. The Mitch McConnells who desperately want to get rid of Trump but don't actually want to effectuate a modicum of the bravery that Liz Cheney showed by actually openly opposing him.

 

It is this wing that dressed up a potato in a suit, hooked up a Trump chatbot to it, and has convinced a good portion of the country that this thing is the Republican party's, and thus the country as a whole, only salvation from Trump.

 

It reminds me a lot of the kneejerk reactions of those who claimed the search warrant on Trump would hand Trump a second term. The thinking was Trump's influence was waning, but giving him this "issue" to rail against has reinvigorated him. But that waning of Trump was always going to end, it's called election season. Whether a Republican primary or general election, you can't fucking tiptoe past Trump to get to the presidency. Sooner or later you are going to have to take him on head-on.

 

2 years worth of DeSantis's handlers carefully passive aggressively splitting hairs by passing unsourced stories to news outlets about how Ron did this or that better than Trump can and most likely will be completely obliterated in the first 5 minutes of a full frontal assault by Trump on a debate stage.

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Firewithin

Firewithin

Posted
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10 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

Alright - I'm gonna be the downer and say that based on Ralston's latest posts, I'm not especially hopeful of CCM eeking out the win in Nevada due the large amount of what are sure to be heavily GOP-leaning mail ballots in rural counties.

 

 

In all likelihood control of the Senate is going to come down to the Georgia run-off.

DOOOOOOOM YES DOOOOOOOOOOOOM

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Siebzehn

Siebzehn

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

Alright - I'm gonna be the downer and say that based on Ralston's latest posts, I'm not especially hopeful of CCM eeking out the win in Nevada due the large amount of what are sure to be heavily GOP-leaning mail ballots in rural counties.

 

 

In all likelihood control of the Senate is going to come down to the Georgia run-off.

But in a surprise twist Warnock gets >50% of the vote and it doesn't go to a run-off!

That'd be fun

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