Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (13 June 2024) - US and Ukraine sign bilateral security agreement for long-term supply and cooperation

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

1 hour ago, sblfilms said:

Is Ukraine “winning” in the macro view of the war? It is obvious that it isn’t going as Russia expected, but how bad is this at the current moment?

 

Yes, I'd say that Ukraine is "winning" from a macro-strategic perspective.

[Air_Delivery]

10 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

Yes, I'd say that Ukraine is "winning" from a macro-strategic perspective.

I think the main thing up in the air is whether they will eventually take back Mariupol. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Just now, Air_Delivery said:

I think the main thing up in the air is whether they will eventually take back Mariupol. 

 

Right, and because of its proximity to Crimea and the Donbass, that's probably a bridge too far for Ukraine for the foreseeable future.

[CitizenVectron]

lmaooooooo

 

 

"You wouldn't download a Russian."

[mclumber1]

And at the end of the day, the people of Mariupol will celebrate their liberation by the Russians!  They will no longer have the boot of the Ukrainians against their necks!

[GeneticBlueprint]

LMAO who fucking made that video?

[PaladinSolo]

It seems likely Russia in the south is going to have a bad time once some forces near Kyiv head south, because they haven't even taken Mariupol yet.

[Chairslinger]

17 minutes ago, GeneticBlueprint said:

LMAO who fucking made that video?

 

 

Well, since things like sanity and satire are dead I would say either the Kremlin or the RNC.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

I don't know if that tactic really works as well as it did. The age of mass formations/men on foot is over, as is the age of main battle tank assaults. I don't think lines on lines of rifle-holding conscripts is a great invasion force, especially when it's easier to break soldiers with drone strikes, shelling, etc.

 

While Russia does have a numerical advantage in population (though only about 3:1), it's not easy to invade a place and hold it, especially when the defenders are battle-hardened.

Also the Russian population is already shrinking they simply don’t have the bodies to throw into the meat grinder

[PaladinSolo]

Pretty sure this is what it looks like when you give a serial killer the OK to just start killing people.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 01 April 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 1 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

---

ISW assesses that the Kremlin has revised its campaign plan in Ukraine after the failure of its initial campaign to capture Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities and its subsequent failure to adjust its operations in late March. ISW previously assessed

 

 

Quote

ISW assesses that the Kremlin has revised its campaign plan in Ukraine after the failure of its initial campaign to capture Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities and its subsequent failure to adjust its operations in late March. ISW previously assessed that the initial Russian campaign of the war—airborne and mechanized operations to seize Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and other major Ukrainian cities to force a change of government in Ukraine—had failed as of March 19.[1] The Russian military continued to feed small collections of reinforcements into operations around Kyiv and across northeastern and southern Ukraine in an effort to keep its initial campaign plan alive throughout late March. We assess that the Russian military has now halted these failed efforts and is beginning a new phase of its campaign in Ukraine with new objectives. We are updating the structure of our campaign assessments to reflect the new structure and prioritization of Russian operations.

 

Russia’s main effort is now focused on eastern Ukraine, with two subordinate main efforts: capturing the port city of Mariupol and capturing the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. The Kremlin claims the entirety of these oblasts as the territory of its proxies in eastern Ukraine, the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR).[2] The Kremlin is increasingly redeploying troops from other axes of advance and channeling its remaining reinforcements from Russia into eastern Ukraine. Russian forces are unlikely to conduct active operations on other fronts in the coming weeks.

 

The Kremlin may intend to capture Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before seeking to negotiate a Kremlin-favorable ceasefire and claim that Russia has achieved its war aims. The Kremlin’s initial false justification for its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine was to protect the DNR and LNR from Ukraine and enable them to seize their “claimed” territory. The Kremlin is attempting to gloss over the failure of Russia’s initial campaign for a domestic Russian audience. The Kremlin has in fact been forced to alter its operations after the failure of its initial campaign. Kremlin claims that Russian forces solely attacked northeastern Ukraine to degrade Ukrainian forces before achieving the “main goal” of capturing Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts – such as statements made by the Russian General Staff on March 25 – are false.[3]

 

Russian forces have three supporting efforts: Kharkiv and Izyum; Kyiv and northeastern Ukraine; and the southern axis, including Kherson.

 

• Russian forces on the Kharkiv axis have abandoned efforts to take the city. Their new objectives are likely to 1) pin Ukrainian mechanized forces in place, and 2) drive southeast to link up with Russian forces in Luhansk Oblast. Russian forces captured Izyum (southeast of Kharkiv) on April 1 after attempting to do so since at least March 7.[4] Russian forces, including elements redeployed from the Sumy axis in the past week, will likely continue offensive operations in the coming days in an effort to cut off Ukrainian forces on the line of contact in Donbas.
• Russian forces around Kyiv and in northeastern Ukraine seek to conduct a retrograde action—the orderly withdrawal of combat forces—for refit and further redeployment to other axes of advance. Russian forces remaining on the forward trace of Russian lines are a covering force intended to screen the retrograde of most of the combat power previously deployed around Kyiv. Ukrainian forces retook substantial territory both northwest and east of Kyiv in the past 24 hours. Ukrainian forces likely advanced faster than Russian forces anticipated, but Russian forces successfully withdrew much of the damaged combat power remaining around Kyiv into Belarus.
• Russian forces on the southern axis—centered on Kherson—are unlikely to conduct offensive operations in the near future and will aim to defend Russian-occupied territory around Kherson against Ukrainian counterattacks. Russian forces will additionally likely prioritize securing southern Ukraine against increasingly frequent Ukrainian partisan actions. Russian forces are unlikely to resume offensive operations west toward Mykolayiv or north toward Zaporizhzhia and Kryvyi Rih in the near future.

 

Key Takeaways

• We now assess that Russia has revised its campaign plan in Ukraine after the failure of operations to seize Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities throughout March.
• The Kremlin’s claims that Russia’s main objective has been eastern Ukraine throughout the war are false and intended to obfuscate the failure of Russia’s initial campaign.
• Russia’s main effort is now concentrated on eastern Ukraine. Russian forces seek to capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
• Russian forces will likely take Mariupol in the coming days but continue to suffer heavy casualties.
• Russian forces seek to fix in place the Ukrainian forces around Kharkiv.
• Russian forces captured Izyum after three weeks of fighting on April 1 and will attempt to advance southeast to link up with Russian forces in Luhansk Oblast in the coming days.
• Ukrainian forces recaptured large swathes of terrain both northwest and east of Kyiv in the past 24 hours, but Russia successfully withdrew elements of its damaged forces into Belarus.
• The Kremlin will continue to funnel reinforcements (including both low-quality individual replacements from Russia and damaged units redeployed from northeastern Ukraine) into operations in eastern Ukraine, but these degraded forces are unlikely to enable Russia to conduct successful large-scale offensive operations.

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

 

 

That's big.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

 

[Jason]

20 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

 

That's big.

 

The M1A1s are pieces of shit but I guess what constitutes a piece of shit for the US military is highly capable for a lot of other militaries.

[Ricofoley]

 

[PaladinSolo]

 

[PaladinSolo]

This appears to be the British starstreaks first shoot down.

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

 

[SuperSpreader]

A bunch of thugs 

[finaljedi]

49 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

 

If they cut the catalytic converters off the bottoms of the cars they find they can get some okay money at the scrapyard too not to mention the goldmine of copper that is a rooftop a/c unit or transformer.  The people in my part of Ohio that seemed to be part of the opioid pandemic had ways of generating income without a job that the Russian military could adopt.

[CitizenVectron]

 

[Uaarkson]

4 hours ago, finaljedi said:

 

If they cut the catalytic converters off the bottoms of the cars they find they can get some okay money at the scrapyard too not to mention the goldmine of copper that is a rooftop a/c unit or transformer.  The people in my part of Ohio that seemed to be part of the opioid pandemic had ways of generating income without a job that the Russian military could adopt.

Junkies are consistently among the highest earners I know in my personal life. I’m talking $500+ per day just from scrapping in Flint. Sometimes more, depending on the price of copper 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

Apparently:

 

 

[CayceG]

My friend send me this video showing life in Kyiv. 

 

What struck me was the fact that the local defense forces took anti-tank hedgehogs that had been used in WW2 out of the museums in Kyiv and put them back onto the streets to defend against Russian movements--with the museum placard still attached. 

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

58 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

Ukraine and Western militaries/intelligence services will need to review whatever SIGINT/ELINT/etc. data they have to identify the specific Russian units that were present in that area as part of evidence gathering for any ICJ war crimes inquiries.

 

I see at least one body with its hands bound behind its back.

[CitizenVectron]

16 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

Ukraine and Western militaries/intelligence services will need to review whatever SIGINT/ELINT/etc. data they have to identify the specific Russian units that were present in that area as part of evidence gathering for any ICJ war crimes inquiries.

 

I see at least one body with its hands bound behind its back.

 

Apparently many dead civilians were found that way (hands bound, shot in head). There are also gruesome videos floating around of Russians indiscriminately shooting civilians as they retreated.

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CayceG]

Bucha is probably the worst war crime in this invasion so far. 

 

 

Fuck. 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[Anathema-]

Isn't Ukraine getting enough soviet era tanks from Russia? 

[silentbob]

2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Apparently many dead civilians were found that way (hands bound, shot in head). There are also gruesome videos floating around of Russians indiscriminately shooting civilians as they retreated.

 

 

Russians are also planting land mines under the dead bodies 😢

[PaladinSolo]

1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

So how about them MiGs, like what are we waiting for at this point.

[PaladinSolo]

Russia needs to be kicked out of everything, especially lose their veto power in the UN, and sanctioned into oblivion.