Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (14 May 2024) - Russia launches new invasion from the north into Kharkiv, soon to launch second corridor into Sumy. Situation is dire

[PaladinSolo]

20 minutes ago, Uaarkson said:

Putin could eventually decide to just start nuking these cities and the world would be just as powerless to stop it. 

Hes not going to do that, people need to stop with this nonsense.

[5timechamp]

The “gradual” escalation continues..

tactical Nukes cant be too far down on the Menu at this point…. but methinks there are a few levels of cruelty for the Russians to resort to still

 

prepare for lots of thoughts and prayers, and expressions of concern…

 

Maybe the only thing preventing Nukes is that its right next door

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

We’re far more likely to get widespread chemical weapons usage before nukes

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

I wouldn’t rule out them testing a nuke in the Far East however!

[Comet]

19 minutes ago, 5timechamp said:

The “gradual” escalation continues..

tactical Nukes cant be too far down on the Menu at this point…. but methinks there are a few levels of cruelty for the Russians to resort to still

 

prepare for lots of thoughts and prayers, and expressions of concern…

 

Maybe the only thing preventing Nukes is that its right next door

I mean you saw what they did with Chernobyl right 

[CayceG]

All this talk of using nuclear weapons is silly. It serves to practical military purpose for Putin. 

[CitizenVectron]

 

Many people don't realize that while most of the news we've been getting is from the Kyiv oblast (and other northern regions), the vast bulk of the regular Ukrainian forces are in the eastern Donbas. It's the most fortified part of the country since it's where the stalemate with Russia has been for the past 8 years.

[Uaarkson]

19 minutes ago, CayceG said:

All this talk of using nuclear weapons is silly. It serves to practical military purpose for Putin. 

I don’t know man. One nuke is a hell of a lot cheaper than a weeks-long bombardment of a city, and Ukraine has a lot of cities that Russia either needs to seize or destroy. And it’s becoming clearer by the day that they don’t have the means to continue their current strategy for long. If Russia runs out of money to finance this invasion, does Putin retreat with his tail between his legs? Or is he going to do what his past behavior indicates, which is to continually escalate? Seriously now, ask yourself. And why would Zelenskyy be publicly warning the world about this possibility? What purpose would it serve him to perpetuate fear-mongering if that’s all it was?

[Comet]

30 minutes ago, Uaarkson said:

I don’t know man. One nuke is a hell of a lot cheaper than a weeks-long bombardment of a city, and Ukraine has a lot of cities that Russia either needs to seize or destroy. And it’s becoming clearer by the day that they don’t have the means to continue their current strategy for long. If Russia runs out of money to finance this invasion, does Putin retreat with his tail between his legs? Or is he going to do what his past behavior indicates, which is to continually escalate? Seriously now, ask yourself. And why would Zelenskyy be publicly warning the world about this possibility? What purpose would it serve him to perpetuate fear-mongering if that’s all it was?

Zelensky has been campaigning this way since day one to galvanize any kind of support. This is nothing new from him. There isn’t any heightened nuclear threat. 

[Littleronin]

1 hour ago, CayceG said:

All this talk of using nuclear weapons is silly. It serves to practical military purpose for Putin. 

 

This. Putin's ability to threaten the use of nuclear weapons is a bigger strategic chip than the actual use of said nuclear weapons. As long as Moscow has people talking about its potential use of their nuclear arsenal they effectively have a propaganda victory. 

[CitizenVectron]

Russian Government's New Semiconductor Plan: Local 28nm by 2030 | Tom's Hardware

WWW.TOMSHARDWARE.COM

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90nm by the end of 2022.

 

Nice, they can build Super Nintendos in a few years.

 

 

[Air_Delivery]

3 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Russian Government's New Semiconductor Plan: Local 28nm by 2030 | Tom's Hardware

WWW.TOMSHARDWARE.COM

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90nm by the end of 2022.

 

Nice, they can build Super Nintendos in a few years.

 

 

Looks like an opportunity to make some dirt cheap ICs for Chinese junk.

[Uaarkson]

2 hours ago, PaladinSolo said:

Hes not going to do that, people need to stop with this nonsense.

 

28 minutes ago, Comet said:

Zelensky has been campaigning this way since day one to galvanize any kind of support. This is nothing new from him. There isn’t any heightened nuclear threat. 

 

11 minutes ago, Littleronin said:

 

This. Putin's ability to threaten the use of nuclear weapons is a bigger strategic chip than the actual use of said nuclear weapons. As long as Moscow has people talking about its potential use of their nuclear arsenal they effectively have a propaganda victory. 

I guess I don’t see where your guys’ confidence in this matter comes from. You all seem totally convinced that there is zero chance of this happening, and I’m not sure why.

[skillzdadirecta]

4 minutes ago, Uaarkson said:

 

 

I guess I don’t see where your guys’ confidence in this matter comes from. You all seem totally convinced that there is zero chance of this happening, and I’m not sure why.

Me neither, but I hope they're right.

[Air_Delivery]

I think Putin would sooner use a nuke than lose so I'm not exactly confident either. 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[Littleronin]

I'm not saying there is a zero percent chance of Putin ordering a nuclear strike. What I am saying is that as long as they can dangle the possibility of using nuclear weapons, the keep the West effectively on the sidelines outside of being being able to deliver aid and let Ukraine do the fighting. 

[Uaarkson]

2 minutes ago, Littleronin said:

I'm not saying there is a zero percent chance of Putin ordering a nuclear strike. What I am saying is that as long as they can dangle the possibility of using nuclear weapons, the keep the West effectively on the sidelines outside of being being able to deliver aid and let Ukraine do the fighting. 

My point is that they don’t need to use it as a threat. They can go ahead and just do it, while the world watches, helpless. No western power would risk elevating to a global nuclear conflict just to punish Russia for nuking Ukraine. They are, unfortunately, just not worth it. 

[Comet]

54 minutes ago, Uaarkson said:

My point is that they don’t need to use it as a threat. They can go ahead and just do it, while the world watches, helpless. No western power would risk elevating to a global nuclear conflict just to punish Russia for nuking Ukraine. They are, unfortunately, just not worth it. 

To what end? They’re trying to annex a radiated wasteland of carcasses? 

[skillzdadirecta]

18 minutes ago, Comet said:

To what end? They’re trying to annex a radiated wasteland of carcasses? 

Escalate to de-escalate. It's literally part of the Russian war doctrine.

[Jwheel86]

If the Russian Army were to completely collapse and Ukrainians push into Russia (or possibly Crimea), then he'd definitely use a tactical nuke as a warning shot. Beyond that, I don't see it happening. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Put me in the camp of not discounting the possibility that Russia uses a relatively low yield tactical nuclear weapon in some uninhabited part of Ukraine in order to make things come to a head.

 

In fact, the longer this war drags on, the greater that possibility becomes.

[Jwheel86]

17 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

Escalate to de-escalate. It's literally part of the Russian war doctrine.

 

Technically they stole it from NATO. 

 

What Does 'No First Use' Mean? A Nuclear Glossary - The Atlantic

WWW.THEATLANTIC.COM

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Here we are again, trying to make our way around nuclear terms and concepts as war rages in the middle of Europe.

 

Quote

Flexible Response
But what if the Soviets went ahead and marched into Europe instead of launching nuclear weapons? A madman’s threat to start blowing up Soviet cities in response—that is, to engage in massive retaliation—was ghastly and immoral. And from the point of view of deterrence, it was even worse: It wasn’t credible.

The answer to this dilemma in the 1960s was a NATO policy—one still in effect—called flexible response. During the Cold War, NATO was outgunned. It could not win a major conventional war in Europe against the U.S.S.R. Instead, the U.S. and NATO promised high risks of escalation. If you invade us, we told the Soviets, we’ll hold you off as long as we can with any number of conventional options. But we reserve the right to escalate the conflict—and even to use nuclear weapons first, if that’s what it takes to save ourselves and our allies.

If NATO, for example, were to face gigantic columns of armor, we reserved the right to strike that armor with tactical nuclear arms. If Soviet echelons were massing in rear areas, perhaps near the U.S.S.R. itself, we reserved the right to strike those echelons, even if it meant a wider war. And if the Soviets threatened retaliation by going to theater or strategic nuclear war—so be it, but NATO made clear that the alliance was ready to respond in kind.

This strategy did not require the U.S. or NATO to be run by lunatics. It was, and remains, a threat to drag out a war so long and at such a price that the situation becomes unstable and thus far more dangerous to Moscow, whose “allies” during the Cold War hated the U.S.S.R. and whose entire war plan for any conflict in Europe was to conquer quickly and without the risk of either internal political opposition or a nuclear exchange.

Flexible response was, in effect, a warning that no Soviet military leader could promise a quick and nonnuclear victory in Europe.

(The Russians, by the way, have now adopted something like their own “flexible response,” reserving the right to use nuclear weapons to “de-escalate” situations that threaten them. The difference is that NATO’s policy has always been to keep nuclear options in self-defense; Russia’s policy is, to say the least, less clear.)

 

[Jason]

1 hour ago, Comet said:

To what end? They’re trying to annex a radiated wasteland of carcasses? 

 

48 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

Escalate to de-escalate. It's literally part of the Russian war doctrine.

 

also just lol over thinking Russia gives a shit about conquering a pile of (radioactive) rubble

[mclumber1]

44 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

Put me in the camp of not discounting the possibility that Russia uses a relatively low yield tactical nuclear weapon in some uninhabited part of Ukraine in order to make things come to a head.

 

In fact, the longer this war drags on, the greater that possibility becomes.

 

This, or a low-yield nuke used well above a population center, where it wouldn't cause any (widespread) damage, but a lot of fear.

[skillzdadirecta]

1 hour ago, Jason said:

 

 

also just lol over thinking Russia gives a shit about conquering a pile of (radioactive) rubble

I mean... they were literally camping out in Chernobyl and took fucking souvenirs. How many Russian Soldiers you think have died by now due to acute radiation poisoning? 

[PaladinSolo]

 

 

[PaladinSolo]

Russia using nukes is the same as them withdrawing in defeat, as it would mean they were unable to win this war, while a limited strike wouldn't even guarantee Ukraine's surrender and likely would cause the hammer to drop on them where they're completely cut off from the rest of the world.

 

Decades of cold war saber rattling over nukes also backs this up, its not like they nuked Afghanistan.  The only time we'll see a nuke used again is in defense when someone actually invades a nuclear power.

[Zaku3]

On 4/15/2022 at 5:07 AM, PaladinSolo said:

Russians doing some more dumb fire rocket artillery from helicopters for some reason.

 

I think it's a doctrinal thing. Using helos for extra supression.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Jomini of the West's "intelligence briefing" for Days 47-51:

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 15 April 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 15 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Russian forces continued small-scale, tactical attacks on the Izyum and Severodonetsk axes; additional reinforcements to date have not enabled any breakthroughs of Ukrainian defenses. Russian forces continue to deploy reinforcements to eastern Ukraine

 

 

Quote

 

Russian forces continued small-scale, tactical attacks on the Izyum and Severodonetsk axes; additional reinforcements to date have not enabled any breakthroughs of Ukrainian defenses. Russian forces continue to deploy reinforcements to eastern Ukraine but show no indication of taking an operational pause. The Russian military appears to be carrying out an approach in eastern Ukrainian similar to its failed efforts north of Kyiv in early March—continuing to funnel small groups of forces into unsuccessful attacks against Ukrainian defensive positions without taking the operational pause that is likely necessary to prepare for a more successful offensive campaign. Russian forces continue to grind down Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol, though ISW cannot currently assess how long these forces will hold out and their current supply status.

 

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces continued to grind down Ukrainian defenses in southwestern and eastern Mariupol, though ISW cannot confirm any major new territorial changes in the past 24 hours. Ukrainian defenders reported that the situation is “deteriorating” and Russian forces are deploying additional artillery and heavy weapons.
• Russian forces continued unsuccessful daily attacks against Rubizhne, Popasna, and Marinka and heavy shelling along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks from Izyum toward both Slovyansk and Barvinkove.

 

Ukrainian military intelligence reported on April 15 that sanctions are increasingly disrupting Russia’s ability to replace equipment losses.[1] The GUR stated that Uralvagonzavod, the largest tank manufacturer in the world and producer of Russia’s T-72 main battle tank, is facing rising interest rates on loans, rising prices on materials and components (including armored steel), and shortages of imported components. The GUR said that Russian import substitution efforts are failing to maintain existing contract

 

 

 

[PaladinSolo]

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

🤞

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[Link200]

I don't expect a full on nuke being used in Ukraine. The fallout would just go into Russia. Winds *generally* flow west to east.

 

The jetstream is sitting right on top of Ukraine currently and would just pump radioactive crap into Russia.