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Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (03 May 2024) - Drones now kill more soldiers than artillery or bullets

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Commissar SFLUFAN

Commissar SFLUFAN

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ISW analysis for 24 April 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 24 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG
Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine made minor advances around Severodonetsk on April 24, seizing several small towns and establishing a pontoon bridge across the Krasna River west of Severodonetsk. Russia’s offensive in eastern Ukraine c

 

 

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Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine made minor advances around Severodonetsk on April 24, seizing several small towns and establishing a pontoon bridge across the Krasna River west of Severodonetsk. Russia’s offensive in eastern Ukraine continues to follow the pattern of their operations throughout the war, using small units to conduct dispersed attacks along multiple axes rather than taking the pauses necessary to prepare for decisive operations. Russian forces continued to bombard the remaining Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Plant and may be preparing for renewed assaults on the facility, which would likely lead to high Russian casualties. The military situation in southern Ukraine did not change in the last 24 hours.

 

Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces continued to pressure Ukrainian defenders in the Azovstal facility in Mariupol.
  • Ukrainian sources report that Russian troops are preparing to conduct renewed assaults on Azovstal that would likely prove costly—possibly to meet a Kremlin-imposed deadline to clear Mariupol—but ISW cannot independently confirm these reports.
  • Russian forces secured limited gains northwest of Severodonetsk but remain unlikely to be able to launch massed offensive operations.
  • Additional Russian forces are deploying to reinforce unsuccessful attacks on the Izyum front.
  • Ukrainian civilians in occupied Kharkiv Oblast are reportedly organizing volunteer movements to resist Russian occupation measures, similar to previously documented actions in southern Ukraine.

 

CORRECTION: ISW mistakenly reported on April 23 that Russian troops seized Lozova, Kharkiv Oblast, approximately 100km west of Izyum. Russian troops actually seized Lozove, Donetsk Oblast, approximately 35km east of Izyum. We apologize for the error.

 

 

 

DraftUkraineCoTApril24,2022.png

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Commissar SFLUFAN

Commissar SFLUFAN

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The Russians targeted five railroad stations in central and western Ukraine:

 

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Stations and the railway infrastructure have become a key target for Russian forces in Ukraine.

 

Rail lines are crucial for both bringing in supplies and evacuating civilians to bordering countries, such as Poland.

 

Monday morning saw five stations in central and western Ukraine under fire, including one around the town of Krasne, near Lviv, and two in the Rivne region, according to a post on Telegram from the head of Rivne Regional Military Administration, Vitalii Koval.

 

"The enemy launched two missile strikes on the railway infrastructure," wrote Koval.

 

"The damage is being established, there are no casualties. We strongly recommend that you be in shelters during air alerts," he said.

 

Head of the Lviv regional military administration Maxim Kozitsky said Russian troops fired missles from the air causing an explosion at the traction substation of the Krasnoye railway station.

 

The Lviv governor said there were no casualties from the strike there, but elsewhere people are reported to be dead or injured in attacks in the Vinnytsia region.

 

 

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GeneticBlueprint

GeneticBlueprint

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1 minute ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

It just clicked for me that their original instructions must have referred to "SIMs" as in "SIM cards".

 

This is a level of non-effort of which I am well and truly impressed!

 

I honestly think there's a certain level of "We don't agree with this shit let's do it really sloppily" going on here. This is just embarrassing.

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Commissar SFLUFAN

Commissar SFLUFAN

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ISW analysis for 25 April 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 25 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG
Russian forces conducted precision missile strikes against five Ukrainian railway stations in central and western Ukraine on April 25 in a likely effort to disrupt Ukrainian reinforcements to eastern Ukraine and Western aid shipments. A series of likely

 

 

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Russian forces conducted precision missile strikes against five Ukrainian railway stations in central and western Ukraine on April 25 in a likely effort to disrupt Ukrainian reinforcements to eastern Ukraine and Western aid shipments. A series of likely coordinated Russian missile strikes conducted within an hour of one another early on April 25 hit critical transportation infrastructure in Vinnytsia, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, and Zhytomyr oblasts.[1] Russian forces seek to disrupt Ukrainian reinforcements and logistics. The Kremlin may have additionally conducted this series of strikes—an abnormal number of precision missile strikes for one day—to demonstrate Russia’s ability to hit targets in Western Ukraine and to disrupt western aid shipments after US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s surprise visit to Kyiv over the weekend. However, Russian precision strike capabilities will remain limited and unlikely to decisively affect the course of the war; open-source research organization Bellingcat reported on April 24 that Russia has likely used 70% of its total stockpile of precision missiles to date.[2]

 

Local Ukrainian counterattacks retook territory north of Kherson and west of Izyum in the past 24 hours. Russian forces continue to make little progress in scattered, small-scale attacks in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian forces are successfully halting Russian efforts to bypass Ukrainian defensive positions around Izyum, and Russian forces are struggling to complete even tactical encirclements. Local Ukrainian counterattacks in Kherson Oblast are unlikely to develop into a larger counteroffensive in the near term but are disrupting Russian efforts to completely capture Kherson Oblast and are likely acting as a drain on Russian combat power that could otherwise support Russia’s main effort in eastern Ukraine.

 

Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces resumed ground attacks against Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Plant in the last 24 hours. Russian officers may assess they will be unable to starve out the remaining defenders by May 9 (a possible self-imposed deadline to complete the capture of Mariupol). Russian forces will likely take high casualties if they resume major ground assaults to clear the facility.
  • Russian forces are accelerating efforts to secure occupied Mariupol but will likely face widespread Ukrainian resistance.
  • Continued Russian attacks in eastern Ukraine took little to no additional territory in the past 24 hours.
  • Prudent tactical Ukrainian counterattacks around Izyum are likely impeding Russian efforts to complete even tactical encirclements of Ukrainian forces.
  • Russian forces are preparing for renewed attacks to capture the entirety of Kherson Oblast in southern Ukraine after minor losses in the past 48 hours.
  • Russian forces likely conducted a false flag attack in Transnistria (Russia’s illegally occupied territory in Moldova) to amplify Russian claims of anti-Russian sentiment in Moldova, but Transnistrian forces remain unlikely to enter the war in Ukraine.

     

    DraftUkraineCoTApril25,2022.png

     

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    Commissar SFLUFAN

    Commissar SFLUFAN

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    I can't say that I disagree with Lavrov in his assertion today that NATO is engaged in a proxy war with Russia:

     

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    Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said deliveries of Western weaponry to Ukraine mean that the Nato alliance is "in essence engaged in war with Russia”.

     

    In an interview aired on Monday, he said: "These weapons will be a legitimate target for Russia’s military acting within the context of the special operation.”

     

    Lavrov also told state television: "Nato, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia through a proxy and is arming that proxy. War means war."

     

     

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    Commissar SFLUFAN

    Commissar SFLUFAN

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    It genuinely appears that a serious effort is being made to expand the conflict into Moldova/Transnistria.

     

    000_328Y72Y.jpg?resize=1200%2C630

    Moldova holds urgent security meeting after Transnistria blasts

    WWW.ALJAZEERA.COM
    Meeting of Supreme Security Council comes after series of explosions in breakaway region.

     

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    Moldovan President Maia Sandu has convened an urgent meeting of the country’s Supreme Security Council after two blasts damaged Soviet-era radio masts in the breakaway region of Transnistria.

     

    The incidents on Tuesday came after local officials on Monday reported several explosions at the state security ministry in the city of Tiraspol at 6pm (15:00 GMT) the day before, on a public holiday for the Orthodox Easter.

     

     

    Moldova should seriously consider requesting a political union with Romania in order to have them fall under the NATO umbrella.

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    Commissar SFLUFAN

    Commissar SFLUFAN

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    Moscow has warned London to expect an "immediate proportional response" if it continues to "provoke" Ukraine into attacking targets on Russian territory:

     

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    Russia’s defence ministry has warned of an immediate “proportional response” if Britain continues its “direct provocation” of Ukraine to strike targets in Russia, Reuters reports.

     

    The ministry cited statements from the UK’s armed forces minister, James Heappey, that said Britain backs Ukrainian troops carrying out strikes in Russian territory. Speaking earlier today, Heappey said it was “not necessarily a problem” if Ukraine uses weapons donated by Britain.

     

    Russia’s defence ministry said:

     

    We would like to underline that London’s direct provocation of the Kiev regime into such actions, if such actions are carried out, will immediately lead to our proportional response.

     

    As we have warned, the Russian Armed Forces are in round-the-clock readiness to launch retaliatory strikes with high-precision long-range weapons at decision-making centers in Kyiv.

     

    The ministry added that if such Russian strikes were made, it would not necessarily be a problem if representatives of a certain Western country were located at those “decision-making centres” in Kyiv.

     

     

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    skillzdadirecta

    skillzdadirecta

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    28 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

    Sounds like Mexico needs to hit Texas, since ya know they were part of Mexico! 

     

    I just can't imagine even saying something like that out loud let alone thinking it makes sense.

    Britain has a right to hit any of the original 13 colonies or all of America period going by that logic. 

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    Commissar SFLUFAN

    Commissar SFLUFAN

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    Apparently, the "leadership" of Transnistria isn't too keen on becoming a party to the conflict:

     

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    As Transnistria's ruler Krasnoselsky accuses Ukraine of the terrorist attacks, he *also says* that he *does not* want to fight — that might be suicidal. 'We will not be dragged into the conflict,' he declared

     

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    Moldovan President Maia Sandu: "Our analyses show that there are tensions between various forces inside Transnistria, interested in destabilising the situation there"

     

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