Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (14 May 2024) - Russia launches new invasion from the north into Kharkiv, soon to launch second corridor into Sumy. Situation is dire

[CitizenVectron]

The unit responsible for the Rape of Bucha has been promoted by Putin:

 

 

"For mass heroism, resilience and courage."

[CitizenVectron]

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

By all indications, the Russians have started the expected major offensive in the Donbas:

 

 

[CayceG]

Had they just done this from the get-go it might have been more successful sooner. 

 

We'll see how this phase of the war progresses. My hopes are that the Ukrainians can turn the tide. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

 

 

[skillzdadirecta]

Four nuclear bombers spotted flying near Ukrainian border

METRO.CO.UK

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Footage shows four nuclear-capable Russian Tu-95s flying within striking distance of Ukraine.

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

2 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

Four nuclear bombers spotted flying near Ukrainian border

METRO.CO.UK

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Footage shows four nuclear-capable Russian Tu-95s flying within striking distance of Ukraine.

 

 

The photo is of a TU-160 Blackjack though the video in the article itself probably does show the TU-95 Bears.

[Littleronin]

I hate the term nuclear-capable used to describe aircraft. FFS the F-18 is a nuclear-capable bombing aircraft. 

 

[CayceG]

13 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

Four nuclear bombers spotted flying near Ukrainian border

METRO.CO.UK

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Footage shows four nuclear-capable Russian Tu-95s flying within striking distance of Ukraine.

 

 

 

Looking at the formation they flew in, it matches the types of formations used in the May 9 Victory Day Parade. This is also near the training ground and airfield that Russian military forces use to practice for the Victory Day Parade. 

 

They were practicing for the parade. Bet on it. 

 

 

Plus, I haven't seen any chatter on my feed lately regarding use of Tu-95s in combat. 

They HAVE been used in Ukraine. They carry air launched cruise missiles and have fired several into Ukraine from Russian territory. And before that happens, the Russian Strategic Aviation shortwave radio net goes crazy. That didn't happen prior to this video showing up. 

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CayceG]

33 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

 

 

Boy, he really one-upped Terrell Starr. 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 18 April 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 18 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Russian forces began a new phase of large-scale offensive operations in eastern Ukraine on April 18 likely intended to capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Russian forces have been concentrating reinforcements—including both n

 

 

Quote

 

Russian forces began a new phase of large-scale offensive operations in eastern Ukraine on April 18 likely intended to capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Russian forces have been concentrating reinforcements—including both newly-deployed units and damaged units withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine—to the Donbas axis for several weeks. Russian forces conducted large-scale assaults focused on Rubizhne, Popasna, and Marinka with heavy artillery support on April 18 after previously conducting only localized attacks and shelling along the line of contact. Russian forces have not secured any major territorial gains as of publication.

 

The Russian offensive in the east is unlikely to be dramatically more successful than previous Russian offensives, but Russian forces may be able to wear down Ukrainian defenders or achieve limited gains. Russian forces did not take the operational pause that was likely necessary to reconstitute and properly integrate damaged units withdrawn from northeastern Ukraine into operations in eastern Ukraine. As we have assessed previously, Russian forces withdrawn from around Kyiv and going back to fight in Donbas have, at best, been patched up and filled out with soldiers from other damaged units, and the Russian military has few, if any, cohesive units not previously deployed to Ukraine to funnel into new operations.[1] Frequent reports of disastrously low Russian morale and continuing logistics challenges indicate the effective combat power of Russian units in eastern Ukraine is a fraction of their on-paper strength in numbers of battalion tactical groups (BTGs). Russian forces may certainly be able to wear down Ukrainian positions in eastern Ukraine through the heavy concentration of firepower and sheer weight of numbers, but likely at a high cost. A sudden and dramatic Russian offensive success remains highly unlikely, however, and Ukrainian tactical losses would not spell the end of the campaign in eastern Ukraine, much less the war as a whole. 

 

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces likely began large-scale offensive operations in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts focused on Rubizhne, Popasna, and Marinka.
• Russian forces may be able to gain ground through the heavy concentration of artillery and numbers. However, Russian operations are unlikely to be dramatically more successful than previous major offensives around Kyiv. The Russian military is unlikely to have addressed the root causes—poor coordination, the inability to conduct cross-country operations, and low morale—that impeded prior offensives.
• Successful Ukrainian counterattacks southeast of Kharkiv will likely force Russian forces to divert some units intended for the Izyum offensive, but Ukrainian forces are unlikely to completely sever Russian lines of communication north of Izyum in the coming days.
• Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol continued to hold out against heavy Russian artillery and air bombardment. 

 

Russian authorities face mounting unwillingness to fight among both conscript and contract personnel. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 18 that Russian forces began efforts to form additional units in Rostov and Crimea by April 24 to form a “second echelon” to occupy administrative buildings and important infrastructure in occupied Ukraine.[2] Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on April 18 that the number of Russian personnel refusing to join the war effort is increasing, including 60-70% of contract soldiers in the 150th Motor Rifle Division of the 8th Combined Arms Army—the primary Russian combat force in eastern Ukraine.[3] The GUR stated that Russian authorities are threatening the families of servicemen who refuse to fight and making permanent marks in the criminal records of those servicemen.

 

Russian cruise missiles struck a Ukrainian vehicle repair shop in Lviv, western Ukraine, killing civilians in Lviv for the first time in the war. Social media users depicted several missiles striking a warehouse and railway junction in Lviv and killing several civilians on April 18.[4] The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces destroyed a logistics center in Lviv used to store weapons arriving in Ukraine from the United States and European Union on April 18.[5] Russian forces seek to disrupt western aid shipments to the Ukrainian military but likely lack large numbers of the precision weapons needed to frequently strike these targets in western Ukraine. 

 

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Jomini of the West's "intelligence briefing" for Days 52-54:

 

 

[PaladinSolo]

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[PaladinSolo]

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 19 April 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 19 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Russian and Ukrainian officials announced that the next phase of the Russian invasion of Ukraine began on April 19. Russian forces conducted intensive artillery and air bombardments of many areas along the front line from around Izyum to Mykolaiv but

 

 

Quote

 

Russian and Ukrainian officials announced that the next phase of the Russian invasion of Ukraine began on April 19. Russian forces conducted intensive artillery and air bombardments of many areas along the front line from around Izyum to Mykolaiv but relatively few ground offensive operations. Russian forces continue to receive personnel and equipment reinforcements as well as command-and-control and logistics capabilities even as they conduct air and artillery preparations and some mechanized advances.

 

The Russians have not fully set conditions for a large-scale offensive operation. The Russians have not had enough time to reconstitute forces withdrawn from the Battle of Kyiv and ready them properly for a new offensive in the east. The Russians appear to be still building logistics and command-and-control capabilities even as they start the next round of major fighting. The tempo of Russian operations continues to suggest that President Vladimir Putin is demanding a hasty offensive to achieve his stated objectives, possibly by “Victory Day” on May 9. The haste and partial preparation of the Russian attack will likely undermine its effectiveness and may compromise its success.

 

Russian forces appear to be attempting to conduct a wide encirclement of Ukrainian troops along axes from Izyum to the southeast and from Donetsk City to the north even as they push west from Popasna and positions north of Severodonetsk. Russian ground offensives in the last 24 hours occurred around Izyum, Kreminna (north of Severodonetsk), and from Donetsk City toward Avdiivka. Only the advance to and possibly through Kreminna made significant progress. An encirclement on this scale would likely take considerable time to complete against Ukrainian resistance. Even if the Russians did complete such an encirclement and trapped a large concentration of Ukrainian forces inside one or more pockets, the Ukrainian defenders would likely be able to hold out for a considerable period and might well be able to break out.

 

The Russians may alternatively try to complete several smaller encirclements simultaneously, each trapping fewer Ukrainian forces and therefore taking less time to complete and then reduce. Coordinating such operations is complicated and beyond the planning and execution capacities the Russian army has demonstrated in the conflict thus far.

 

Ukrainian forces continue to defend parts of the Azovstal complex in Mariupol, but Russian officials and media are gathering in and near the city, likely in preparation to declare victory in the coming days whether or not fighting continues.

 

Key Takeaways

• The next phase of the Russian offensive in Ukraine’s east has reportedly begun, largely with artillery and air bombardments supporting a few small-scale ground offensives.
• Russian officials and media are likely preparing to declare victory in Mariupol in the coming days, possibly before Ukrainian forces in the Azovstal facility have been fully defeated.
• The Russians may be attempting a single wide encirclement of Ukrainian forces from Izyum to Donetsk City or a series of smaller encirclements within that arc. It is too soon to assess the intended Russian scheme of maneuver.
• Russian operations continue to proceed hastily, as if President Vladimir Putin has set an arbitrary date by which they must succeed. Putin may have decided that he will announce a Russian success and the completion of the operation on Victory Day, May 9. The haste with which Russian forces are moving may compromise the success of their operations.

 

 

 

[SuperSpreader]

10 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

Are these the Nazis?

[CayceG]

5 minutes ago, SuperSpreader said:

 

Are these the Nazis?

 

 

No. This is a unit of the Ukrainian Marines. But they are fighting alongside units from Azov Battalion. 

 

The confusing issue here is that Azov Battalion and the Azovstal steel plant both have "Azov" as their namesake... which is the sea that Mariupol is situated on. 

[CayceG]

Also, the soldiers fighting in the siege of Mariupol (sigh... yes, even Azov) are going to be seen as the new Cyborgs of this phase of the conflict with Russia. 

 

For those who don't know, these were the Cyborgs:

 

Cyborgs (Donetsk airport) - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[PaladinSolo]

 

[Anathema-]

1 hour ago, PaladinSolo said:

 

 

Strong "... and this is my stuff" energy here. 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

 

 

 

It's pretty crazy how much is being directed at Russia, and how much info is being stolen and dumped online. Intelligence agencies are hopefully having a field day.

[CitizenVectron]

Hey I heard you guys hate Merkel, would you be interested in also hating the new Chancellor?

 

 

 

 

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Germany: always terrible

[CayceG]

I can appreciate where Scholz's head is at. 

 

 

 

No, not "up his ass." Germany has in the last century gotten into a war with Russia TWICE, and wound up losing badly each time. I'm all but certain Germany's leadership has learned from that and has tied the country's fortunes to Russia in some way. So they don't want to anger them and risk getting their o-rings blown out a third time. 

[CayceG]

12 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

 

 

 

My guess is that it's not related to the transfer of fighter jets to Ukraine, and that it's actually this:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

The first delivery of American 155mm howitzers has arrived:

 

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[PaladinSolo]

31 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

The first delivery of American 155mm howitzers has arrived:

 

 

 

Apparently the US has also supplied them with 40,000 rounds for these howitzers as well, enough to more than exceed the number of times they should fire before refit.