Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (14 May 2024) - Russia launches new invasion from the north into Kharkiv, soon to launch second corridor into Sumy. Situation is dire

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

One of the most plausible theories I've seen is that these aren't sabotage or anything like that—they are corrupt people trying to hide evidence. For years oligarchs have been skimming money off the top of everything and delivering faulty products and supplies, especially to the military. Now that it's been revealed just how bad these supplies and supply chains are, Putin will likely be coming for them.

 

[Ghost_MH]

19 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

One of the most plausible theories I've seen is that these aren't sabotage or anything like that—they are corrupt people trying to hide evidence. For years oligarchs have been skimming money off the top of everything and delivering faulty products and supplies, especially to the military. Now that it's been revealed just how bad these supplies and supply chains are, Putin will likely be coming for them.

 

 

 

[Jason]

"mysterious"

 

Two Russian Oligarchs Die in Mysterious Circumstances 24 Hours Apart

WWW.NEWSWEEK.COM

---

As well as Western sanctions on oligarchs, Russian President Vladimir Putin also appeared to target billionaires during a rant about Westernized Russians last month.

 

[ThreePi]

46 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

One of the most plausible theories I've seen is that these aren't sabotage or anything like that—they are corrupt people trying to hide evidence. For years oligarchs have been skimming money off the top of everything and delivering faulty products and supplies, especially to the military. Now that it's been revealed just how bad these supplies and supply chains are, Putin will likely be coming for them.

 

 

The other suggestion I saw was that the government was forcing the factory owners/operators to not lay anyone off. But they have no work to do because they can't get foreign materials. So burn the place down, collect on some insurance, and not have to worry about paying any employees.

[CitizenVectron]

 

At the current rate, Russia will have lost all its combat power effective Oct 15.

 

 

 

[Air_Delivery]

I'd imagine at some point its going to stop being relatively linear and drop off pretty hard all at once. 5% in a week is already faster than any rate previously.

Of course assuming they continue to reinforce and resupply as they have been doing.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 21 April 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 21 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

---

The Kremlin declared victory in the battle of Mariupol. Russian forces will attempt to starve out remaining Ukrainian defenders in the Azovstal Steel Plant rather than clear it through likely costly assaults. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Defense

 

 

Quote

 

The Kremlin declared victory in the battle of Mariupol. Russian forces will attempt to starve out remaining Ukrainian defenders in the Azovstal Steel Plant rather than clear it through likely costly assaults. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu declared victory in the battle of Mariupol on April 21 despite the continued presence of Ukrainian forces in Mariupol’s Azovstal Steel Plant. In a staged, televised meeting, Putin ordered Shoigu to halt assaults on the plant to limit Russian casualties, claiming Russian forces have already captured the entirety of the city. The Kremlin will spin the (still incomplete) capture of Mariupol into a major victory in Ukraine to compensate for stalled or failed Russian offensives elsewhere.

 

The Kremlin’s reduction of the pace of operations in Mariupol is unlikely to enable the deployment of significant combat power to support other offensive operations in the coming days and weeks. Statements from US officials that Russia has not yet removed a dozen battalion tactical groups (BTGs) from Mariupol despite Putin’s claimed victory do not capture either the status of these Russian forces or other constraints on their use.[1] ISW has consistently assessed that Russian BTGs have taken high casualties in the battle of Mariupol, are degraded, and are unlikely to possess their full complement of personnel (800-900 at full strength). As with Russian operations elsewhere in Ukraine, reporting on numbers of BTGs without additional context and analysis of the combat power of these units is not a useful evaluation of Russian forces. While it is unlikely that all 12 reported BTGs were involved in the final fighting around the Azovstal plant, it will still take some time for those units that were engaged in final assaults to disengage for redeployment elsewhere. Some portion of these Russian forces will be necessary for several other missions—including maintaining the siege of the Azovstal plant, securing the rest of Mariupol against any remaining pockets of Ukrainian forces and likely partisan actions, and possibly redeploying to support Russian forces maintaining control of southern Ukraine. Russian forces will certainly be able to redeploy some units from Mariupol to offensive operations elsewhere—but Ukrainian forces have succeeded in tying down and degrading a substantial Russian force, and the Kremlin's declaration of victory has not inherently freed up 12 BTGs worth of combat power for other operations.

 

Key Takeaways

• The Kremlin’s declaration of victory in Mariupol is unlikely to enable the deployment of significant combat power to reinforce offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in the coming days or weeks.
• Russian forces involved in the battle of Mariupol are likely heavily damaged and Ukrainian forces succeeded in tying down and degrading a substantial Russian force.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations in eastern Ukraine but made only marginal gains.
• Ukrainian forces continued to halt Russian attacks around Izyum.

 

 

 

[Uaarkson]

43 minutes ago, Air_Delivery said:

I'd imagine at some point its going to stop being relatively linear and drop off pretty hard all at once. 5% in a week is already faster than any rate previously.

Of course assuming they continue to reinforce and resupply as they have been doing.

I’ll start taking bets on when the first nuclear strike happens. Losing your combat capability is an existential threat to the state.

[skillzdadirecta]

2 hours ago, Jason said:

"mysterious"

 

Two Russian Oligarchs Die in Mysterious Circumstances 24 Hours Apart

WWW.NEWSWEEK.COM

---

As well as Western sanctions on oligarchs, Russian President Vladimir Putin also appeared to target billionaires during a rant about Westernized Russians last month.

 

That's not the same guy???

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

3,000 Nazis dead

 

 

[Jason]

2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

3,000 Nazis dead

 

 

 

Where are they fighting? Is it Nazis vs Nazis?

[outsida]

I guess what Putin meant by “De-Nazification” is that he will send Nazis in to Ukraine to die..?

[Air_Delivery]

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

12 hours ago, skillzdadirecta said:

That's not the same guy???

 

It is.

 

For some inexplicable reason, the article used two photos of the same oligarch for the story.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

8 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

Ahhhhh - it's a loitering munition like the Switchblades.

[CitizenVectron]

20 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

Ahhhhh - it's a loitering munition like the Switchblades.

 

The operating at night part is what interests me, because that's when the Russians are weakest. Also, a range of nearly 600km means these things could potentially be used to destroy parked jets and helicopters far behind the front lines.

[CitizenVectron]

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Russia has "officially" declared its military aims:  control of the Donbas and southern Ukraine.

 

Quote

 

Russia has for the first time disclosed its goal to fully control Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region as well as southern Ukraine as part of the second phase of its invasion.

 

“Control over the south of Ukraine is another way to Transnistria, where there is also evidence that the Russian-speaking population is being oppressed,” Russian military official Rustam Minnekayev said at a meeting, according to Russian media and a translation by Reuters. Russian forces have significantly ramped up their bombardment of eastern and southern Ukraine in recent days.

 

Russian control of southern Ukraine would give Moscow a land bridge between the Russian-backed separatist territories in the Donbas and the Crimean peninsula, which it annexed in 2014.

 

Transnistria is an unrecognized breakaway state that is officially part of Moldova, which borders Ukraine to the south. Russian forces have been stationed in Transnistria since the 1990s, and Kyiv has warned that Moscow could stage false flag operations there to justify an invasion.

 

In March 2022, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe designated Transnistria as a Moldovan territory occupied by Russia.

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

3 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

Russia has "officially" declared its military aims:  control of the Donbas and southern Ukraine.

 

And with a hint that it wants part of Moldova. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Of course, this would also require the occupation of Odessa which at this point is absolutely delusional thinking.

[CitizenVectron]

Just now, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

Of course, this would also require the occupation of Odessa which at this point is absolutely delusional thinking.

 

I don't think there is any realistic future where Russia takes even a single additional Ukrainian mid-sized city. 

[CitizenVectron]

This line from their document is great:

 

Quote

"During strikes, the Russian armed forces do not suffer any losses. This kills the morale of the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine the most. The technical superiority of the Russian army on land, at sea and in the air has become obvious," he said.

 

lol

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Interpretation/analysis of Minnekaev's speech regarding Transnistria:

 

 

The speech shouldn't necessarily be interpreted to suggest that there will be an operation to establish a corridor to Transnistria in the immediate future (or potentially at all).

[CitizenVectron]

9 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

Interpretation/analysis of Minnekaev's speech regarding Transnistria:

 

 

The speech shouldn't necessarily be interpreted to suggest that there will be an operation to establish a corridor to Transnistria in the immediate future (or potentially at all).

 

I mean the entire thing is fantasy. It's true that their goal may now be to hold the east and south...but that's because they already hold 80% of it. If they'd captured Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Chernihiv, they'd be including those as goals as well. 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[skillzdadirecta]

CNN interviewed a Russian speaking couple in Eastern Ukraine yesterday who blamed the war on AMERICA and have completely bought into Russian propaganda despite the bombs dropping around their heads. Misinformation is a powerful thing.

 

 

[Jason]

 

[Mr.Vic20]

Vladimir Poutine? 

[CitizenVectron]

23 minutes ago, Mr.Vic20 said:

Vladimir Poutine? 

 

Since Putin's name is in cyrillic and not latin, it's transliterated differently in different languages. In English it's Putin, in French it's Poutine.

[Mr.Vic20]

Just now, CitizenVectron said:

 

Since Putin's name is in cyrillic and not latin, it's transliterated differently in different languages. In English it's Putin, in French it's Poutine.

Huh, that’s actually quite interesting! The more you know…

[skillzdadirecta]

1 hour ago, Jason said:

 

Dementia? Stroke?

[Comet]

6 minutes ago, skillzdadirecta said:

Dementia? Stroke?

Or embarrassed because he sharted himself and any movement will give up his act of shame.