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Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (30 May 2024) - Biden gives Ukraine permission to strike some targets inside Russia with American weapons

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Commissar SFLUFAN

Commissar SFLUFAN

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ISW analysis for 10 March 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 10 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG
The likelihood is increasing that Ukrainian forces could fight to a standstill the Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv. Russian forces also appear to be largely stalemated around Kharkiv and distracted from efforts to seize that

 

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The likelihood is increasing that Ukrainian forces could fight to a standstill the Russian ground forces attempting to encircle and take Kyiv. Russian forces also appear to be largely stalemated around Kharkiv and distracted from efforts to seize that city. Russian advances in the south around Mykolayiv and toward Zaporizhya and in the east around Donetsk and Luhansk made little progress as well in the last 24 hours. Russia likely retains much greater combat power in the south and east and will probably renew more effective offensive operations in the coming days, but the effective reach and speed of such operations is questionable given the general performance of the Russian military to date. There are as yet no indications that the Russian military is reorganizing, reforming, learning lessons, or taking other measures that would lead to a sudden change in the pace or success of its operations, although the numerical disparities between Russia and Ukraine leave open the possibility that Moscow will be able to restore rapid mobility or effective urban warfare to the battlefield.

 

Russian forces around Kyiv did not attempt to renew offensive operations on a multi-battalion scale on March 10 following the failure of limited efforts on March 8-9. Ukrainian forces badly damaged a Russian armored column in the Brovary area east of Kyiv, likely further disrupting Russian efforts to set conditions for offensive operations on the east bank of the Dnipro. Ukrainian resistance all along the Russian lines of communication from eastern Kyiv to the Russian border near Sumy continues to disrupt Russian efforts to bring more combat power to bear near the capital. The episodic, limited, and largely unsuccessful Russian offensive operations around Kyiv increasingly support the Ukrainian General Staff’s repeated assessments that Russia lacks the combat power near the capital to launch successful offensive operations on a large scale. 

 

Key Takeaways

  • Russian operations around Kyiv remained largely stalled over the past 24 hours.
  • Ukrainian forces badly damaged a Russian armored unit east of the capital, likely disrupting Russian efforts to encircle or assault the city from the east.
  • Russian forces continue to struggle in efforts to seize Chernihiv city and to secure the long ground lines of communication from Sumy, which the Ukrainians still hold, to eastern Kyiv.
  • A new Russian invasion from western Belarus, with or without Belarusian ground forces’ support, appears increasingly unlikely.
  • Russian forces remain pinned down attempting to reduce Mariupol by siege and bombardment.
  • Russian efforts to bypass Mykolayiv and establish a reliable ground line of communication across the Southern Bug River to the north of Mykolayiv remain stalled.
  • Ukrainian air force and air defense operations continue to hinder Russian ground forces maneuver by likely limiting Russian close air support and exposing Russian mechanized forces to Ukrainian air and artillery attacks.

 

     

    DraftUkraineCoTMarch10,2022.png

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    CitizenVectron

    CitizenVectron

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    To be clear, it is likely that Xi knew full well about the invasion, but he was likely informed/mislead that it would either be a limited operation to take Donbas, or that it would be a weekend affair to take Kyiv, remove Zelenskyy, and move on. It's likely that he is shocked that it turned into a major, protracted war.

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    Commissar SFLUFAN

    Commissar SFLUFAN

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    Based on what's being reported and the overall military situation, Zelenskyy needs to make the terrible decision and order the surrender of Mariupol.

     

    There is simply no military or moral justification to allow it to continue holding out, not when there is simply no realistic chance for Ukrainian forces to break the Russian ring around the city.

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    Air_Delivery

    Air_Delivery

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    52 minutes ago, Jwheel86 said:

    Let's assume Russia gets it's shit together and defeats the Ukrainian Army, then what? Where do we see this going now that we're two weeks in? 

    I expect Russia to keep shelling cities and Ukraine to keep grinding them down.

    I'm fairly certain Russias strategy right now is to keep killing civlians as a way to get favorable terms on a deal. 

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    CitizenVectron

    CitizenVectron

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    Far too early to tell, but I wonder if this war will create a rift between the army and politicians in Russia, similar to what has happened in the past:

     

     

     

    Soldiers being sent to die, then being told that no, they are not dying, and in fact are saving people, even as they know their buddies are being killed for nothing.

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    Commissar SFLUFAN

    Commissar SFLUFAN

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    7 minutes ago, Jwheel86 said:

     

    $20 they desert for Poland first chance they get. 

     

    2 minutes ago, mclumber1 said:

     

    Oh shit bois free ticket to European refugee status!

     

    Polish neo-fascists already assaulted dark-skinned refugees feeling Ukraine so I doubt that deserting Syrians would get any better treatment.

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