Chollowa Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, Emperor Diocletian II said: In the case of Florida, it's "Dixiecrats" that are finally changing their voter registration to Republican. I understand that is at least partially the case in Florida. But I also see these huge crowds like the one in California today and the rallies and I think Trump has to be turning people that were apolitical into voters. Most of these people are just assholes that see him as validating their shittiness in some way, but I don't think these people were voters before Trump. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 He's gonna lose CA by a significantly larger margin than he did 4 years ago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 When do we make our election predictions? One week out? We'll need a thread for that, with one unedited post per person! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 I've made it already you folks better catch up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 I will say this: The sole "bright side" of a Trump electoral "victory".(which is what I expect will happen, one way or another) is that the damage to the American political system will be so very grave that it could very well prevent the GOP from fielding an actually competent fascist in 2024 as would most certainly be the case with a Biden win. Of course, the "State" may not actually survive, but accelerating the inevitable does have its merits! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost_MH Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 35 minutes ago, Chairslinger said: Just about the only thing me and Trump agree on is that Christianity is laughable bullshit. The horror of having him as president has really overridden an sense of vindication I have had over his existence proving the moral bankruptcy of Christianity in America. But when this nightmare is over, you better believe I'll be doubling back to throw it in their face. It's not just how hypocritical they've been. It's also just how little effort Trump has had to exert to get them to eat out of his hand. These are the same people whose beliefs and media are saturated with end time ideas about how the antichrist will be there to trick people into thinking he is the good guy. Obviously I think this is all bunk, but it's good to know that Christians are so easily fooled by a man that is roughly the equivalent of a stereotypical red devil wearing a glasses with mustache disguise. That's the thing. I AM a religious Christian. The number of people I get into arguments with about this drives me insane. I'm not at all convinced in a literal antichrist or anything like that, but I have plenty of conversations with friends and family that do. If you ask one of them that's a Trump supporter to describe what the antichrist would be like in the modern world, they describe Trump. To the damn T. If you bring up this, it's no "Trump is president whether I like it or not because God wanted him there". If you ask them "Would God stop the antichrist from rising into power?". It's an obvious no and the cognitive dissonance makes my head explode. My only hope for redeeming these people's brain cells is that Trump loses, badly, on election night and they have to come to terms with it. Who am I kidding, though? Biden is obviously going to die and Harris is actually the antichrist because Q decided that Trump threw the election for blah blah blah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyser_Soze Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Ghost_MH said: If you bring up this, it's no "Trump is president whether I like it or not because God wanted him there". If you ask them "Would God stop the antichrist from rising into power?". It's an obvious no and the cognitive dissonance makes my head explode. My only hope for redeeming these people's brain cells is that Trump loses, badly, on election night and they have to come to terms with it. Who am I kidding, though? Biden is obviously going to die and Harris is actually the antichrist because Q decided that Trump threw the election for blah blah blah. So if God wanted Trump and then someone else wins did God want the other person to win too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 19, 2020 Author Share Posted October 19, 2020 http://www.nytimes.com//vi-assets/static-assets/apple-touch-icon-28865b72953380a40aa43318108876cb.png Why These Voters Rejected Hillary Clinton but Are Backing Joe Biden - The New York Times WWW.NYTIMES.COM For many Democrats and independents who sat out 2016, voted for third-party candidates or backed Donald Trump, Mr. Biden is more acceptable to them in ways large and small than Mrs. Clinton was. Quote Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump, 49 percent to 19 percent, among likely voters who backed third-party candidates in 2016, according to recent polling of battleground states by The New York Times and Siena College. Among registered voters who sat out the 2016 election, Mr. Biden leads by nine percentage points, the polls found. Quote “I knew early that Trump definitely wasn’t the guy for me,” recalled Mr. Moline, an independent. But when it came to Mrs. Clinton, “I guess I had a bad taste in my mouth from her husband’s eight years in office.” He voted for Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, a decision he regrets, and he feels at ease backing Mr. Biden. Quote “The Republicans did a fantastic job of making Hillary Clinton seem like the devil for the last 20-plus years, so she was a hard sell,” said Aaron Stearns, the Democratic chairman in Warren County in northwestern Pennsylvania. “It’s just a lot easier with Joe Biden because he’s a guy and he’s an old white guy. I hate saying that, but it’s the truth.” Quote “I didn’t like Hillary — I felt that she was a fraud, basically, lying and conniving,” said Sarah Brown, 27, of Rhinelander, Wis., who regrets her 2016 vote for Mr. Trump and plans to vote for Mr. Biden. “I’m not a super big fan of him, either, but the two options — I guess it’s the lesser evil.” Quote “I thought the girl just wanted the job because she wanted to be the boss, that’s all,” said Mr. Melody, 76, who often votes Democratic for president but supported the Green Party candidate, Jill Stein, in 2016. “Biden’s a regular guy.” Interesting tidbit from the Bernie camp and Bernie wing of the party: Quote Internal polling conducted for the Bernie Sanders campaign found that Mr. Biden had a reservoir of good will that Mrs. Clinton did not possess. “He was a hard guy to hit,” said Ben Tulchin, Senator Sanders’s pollster. “ There’s not a lot of passion for him, but they like him.” Quote Liberal Democrats, too, are showing more willingness to set aside their ideological differences, following the lead of Senator Sanders, who quickly backed Mr. Biden after ending his primary bid. “In the last election, I didn’t see things as being as dire as I do in this election, and I didn’t think that Donald Trump could win,” said Nikki Baker, 66, a Minneapolis waitress who voted for Ms. Stein in 2016. “When Angela Davis and Noam Chomsky are saying you have to vote for Joe Biden, then I have to vote for Joe Biden.” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 19, 2020 Author Share Posted October 19, 2020 Biden's poll numbers at this moment nearly perfectly match a uniform +8 swing in his direction. That's impressive consistency considering he's averaging +10 in the national polls and Clinton "won" the vote by +2. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost_MH Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 6 hours ago, Keyser_Soze said: So if God wanted Trump and then someone else wins did God want the other person to win too? Yes, but that's only because Obama was the Muslim antichrist or whatever bullshit they managed to come up with based on a combination of AM talk radio and Fox News. Back when I actually had a Facebook, I couldn't keep track of the stuff being shared. Stuff like Obama cancelling elections, bringing in Shari'a Law, signs he was the antichrist, or whatever else you can possibly imagine. Spanish Facebook is oddly worse because there seems to actually be more of the batshit crazy just being shared out in the open. I thought I had recovered a few of my braincells when I killed off my Facebook account last year, but now I've got some of those same friends and family sharing that stuff with me directly over messenger. At least these days, the crazy has been amped up to such a degree that they're asking if this is all really true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 People seem to forget pollsters changed after 2016 to better pick up the Trump vote, they nail 2018, and even still Biden's approval, favorability and lead is much bigger and consistent than Clinton's with far fewer undecideds. Its probably more likely 2016 was an abnormal year and we could see a reversion and Biden outruns his polling. Trafalgar is really the only decent polling for the GOP and they're basically just giving the GOP 5-6 points after they run their polling cause of nonsensical shy voter stuff. I'd also like to point out party registration means nothing in most states, take FL for example, Dems have more people registered by a hundred thousand or something, but means nothing when you have 3.5 million people registered under no party. Its also not an indication of who they're going to vote for in many states especially in the south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 19, 2020 Author Share Posted October 19, 2020 oh shit 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewhyteboar Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, SaysWho? said: oh shit Listening to scientists makes you gay. Everyone knows that. That's why Pence started an HIV pandemic while he was governor of Indiana. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Quote “If I listened totally to the scientists, we would right now have a country that would be in a massive depression instead — we’re like a rocket ship. Take a look at the numbers.” I mean it's not straight up, but I could see a rocket ship taking that angle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 19, 2020 Author Share Posted October 19, 2020 After the debate, we were wondering if the +12 Biden polls were outliers or not. They're not; they're the constant. I hope it stays like this and the polls act similarly to Obama's in 08. Why's 15 days have to be so long? I'd feel great if it were Nov 3 right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 19, 2020 Author Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclumber1 Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 23 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: I mean it's not straight up, but I could see a rocket ship taking that angle. Ah the classic rocket equation! A constant thrust with continuously depleting mass will result in ever increasing acceleration. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Imagine saying shit like that, when China, where this all began and had much stricter lockdowns, is looking like it could end the year with a GDP increase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost_MH Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 hour ago, PaladinSolo said: People seem to forget pollsters changed after 2016 to better pick up the Trump vote, they nail 2018, and even still Biden's approval, favorability and lead is much bigger and consistent than Clinton's with far fewer undecideds. Its probably more likely 2016 was an abnormal year and we could see a reversion and Biden outruns his polling. Trafalgar is really the only decent polling for the GOP and they're basically just giving the GOP 5-6 points after they run their polling cause of nonsensical shy voter stuff. I'd also like to point out party registration means nothing in most states, take FL for example, Dems have more people registered by a hundred thousand or something, but means nothing when you have 3.5 million people registered under no party. Its also not an indication of who they're going to vote for in many states especially in the south. I hear you, but what if many pollsters don't take changing demographics well enough into account. Trump Is Losing Ground With White Voters But Gaining Among Black And Hispanic Americans | FiveThirtyEight FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM There’s a well-known truth in politics: No one group swings an election. But that doesn’t mean that the demographic trends bubbling beneath the surface can’t ha… As I mentioned previously, there's a straight social media bombardment targeting religious Hispanics and African Americans that might not be politically active, don't watch the debates or even the news regularly, but do see this stuff about Trump protecting churches and Biden wanting to close them down followed by close of Trump talking about Christianity out Biden talking about trans rightsp popping up on Facebook and Instagram. This stuff might not be getting enough attention. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 19, 2020 Author Share Posted October 19, 2020 Debate topics include climate change: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CayceG Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, SaysWho? said: Debate topics include climate change: The cover of that guy's book looks like the topic is the EXACT OPPOSITE of what it is intended to be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ghost_MH said: I hear you, but what if many pollsters don't take changing demographics well enough into account. Trump Is Losing Ground With White Voters But Gaining Among Black And Hispanic Americans | FiveThirtyEight FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM There’s a well-known truth in politics: No one group swings an election. But that doesn’t mean that the demographic trends bubbling beneath the surface can’t ha… As I mentioned previously, there's a straight social media bombardment targeting religious Hispanics and African Americans that might not be politically active, don't watch the debates or even the news regularly, but do see this stuff about Trump protecting churches and Biden wanting to close them down followed by close of Trump talking about Christianity out Biden talking about trans rightsp popping up on Facebook and Instagram. This stuff might not be getting enough attention. Not really, those groups are largely concentrated in states Biden doesn't need, while Whites make up a huge majority in PA, WI, MI, but even still Biden is winning those groups handidly so if turn out surges among them he could still end up being even better off on vote totals despite being down percentage wise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 19, 2020 Author Share Posted October 19, 2020 This is a good reminder that polling errors go both ways. See: Cruz vs. Beto Trafalgar predictably sucked. They also had the Georgia governor up 12 and he won by a little more than 1. If the polling errors were this big in his favor, Biden would take Texas as of today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewhyteboar Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 19, 2020 Author Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, thewhyteboar said: wtf? I wanna know what they're looking at because Biden's polling well, but it's not this insurmountable lead, especially two weeks out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaladinSolo Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, SaysWho? said: wtf? I wanna know what they're looking at because Biden's polling well, but it's not this insurmountable lead, especially two weeks out. Theres a lot more polls that having Biden up 4-5 points there than ones that have it 0-1, and none with him having a lead in recent weeks. If anything them thinking it was a sure thing at any point is far more insane. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted October 19, 2020 Author Share Posted October 19, 2020 9 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said: Theres a lot more polls that having Biden up 4-5 points there than ones that have it 0-1, and none with him having a lead in recent weeks. If anything them thinking it was a sure thing at any point is far more insane. It was insane for them to think that since it hasn't been a sure thing since 2008 even when they won, but I wouldn't bet money two weeks out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anathema- Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 11 minutes ago, SaysWho? said: wtf? I wanna know what they're looking at because Biden's polling well, but it's not this insurmountable lead, especially two weeks out. They're looking at an empty bank account. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Also, over 28 million people have already voted in the US. Those votes are locked-in from when Biden has a huge lead, so that protects him from swings to some degree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 There is going to be a giant volume of mail-in ballots rejected this year for completely spurious reasons, and it will likely be enough to swing many races to the GOP. Mail-in ballots are rejected at something like 2 or 4x the rate of in-person ballots, something up to 8%? And if Democrats are voting by mail-in at 4 or 8x the rate of GOP...there will be an erasure of those Democrat leads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 they're totally going to try and pin CP on hunter or joe 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massdriver Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 I won't be confident in a Biden victory until I see the polling 3 days before election day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: they're totally going to try and pin CP on hunter or joe You made me google "CP hunter biden", you jerk. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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