Joe Biden beats Donald Trump, officially making Trump a one-term twice impeached, twice popular-vote losing president

[PaladinSolo]

Polling right now is really incomplete, what's been released is mostly mid to lower tier with some giving really weird results like Trump getting 28% of African Americans, I think some better polls should be released today. 

[PaladinSolo]

14 minutes ago, thewhyteboar said:

 

 

 

[Signifyin(g)Monkey]

Just to remind you all that national polls really don’t matter:

 

Trump closes in on Biden in Minnesota.

 

And for those who reject every analysis that doesn’t come from Nate Silver and/or the folks at 538:

Why Minnesota could be the next Midwestern state to go red.

Don’t kid yourself, this will likely be a very close one.  I wouldn’t indulge a single moment of complacency or calm.

 

On the bright side, the polls are still meaningless right now, and will be for another 5-6 weeks.

 

 

[PaladinSolo]

3 minutes ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

Just to remind you all that national polls really don’t matter:

 

Trump closes in on Biden in Minnesota.

 

And for those who reject every analysis that doesn’t come from Nate Silver and/or the folks at 538:

Why Minnesota could be the next Midwestern state to go red.

Don’t kid yourself, this will likely be a very close one.  I wouldn’t indulge a single moment of complacency or calm.

 

On the bright side, the polls are still meaningless right now, and will be for another 5-6 weeks.

 

 

 

But again Biden winning the national vote by more than 3% and losing the EC isn't really based in reality. 

[SaysWho?]

16 minutes ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

Just to remind you all that national polls really don’t matter:

 

Trump closes in on Biden in Minnesota.

 

National polls don't matter and good state polling for Biden doesn't.

 

Only Minnesota.

[marioandsonic]

I still think it will be really close.

 

Not because of polls, mind you, but because of Trump's efforts to sabotage mail-in voting.

[SaysWho?]

Side note: I've been saying Minnesota was a swing state since IGN during the 08 primaries since people forgot how competitive Minnesota was in 00 and 04. You could have read my posts for that information.  

[Signifyin(g)Monkey]

10 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

 

National polls don't matter and good state polling for Biden doesn't.

 

Only Minnesota.

Well, none of the polls matter for another 6-8 weeks.

 

FWIW, I’m fine with Minny going red if Texas and Georgia go blue.

 

But swing state polling is notoriously volatile anyway, as we saw in 2016.  Also, massive voter suppression.  I expect the election to be won by paper thin margins and everyone else should too.

[SaysWho?]

1 minute ago, Signifyin(g)Monkey said:

But swing state polling is notoriously volatile anyway, as we saw in 2016. 

 

I now know what, "Repeating it over and over doesn't make is true," means. 

 

This has been explained to you. You're a really smart dude, but you're stubborn about this for some reason. There's nothing else that can be said that hasn't already been explained, man.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

You can't cite 2016 and ignore polling corrections made in 2018

[Spork3245]

8 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

You can't cite 2016 and ignore polling corrections made in 2018

Man, I remember way back in the long long ago, during the before time, when if you asked someone for a polling correction it was just an innuendo for sex... these days it means accounting for errors, AND an innuendo for sex.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

 

[CitizenVectron]

It will go one of two ways (for his behavior):

1. Trump leads on election night because mail-in ballots take a few days to count. He declares victory, then cries foul as Biden slowly takes the lead over the following week. "Where are these votes coming from? We're looking into it, they are FAKE!"
2. Mail-in ballots are counted in many states before election night, and when the polls close Biden has a commanding lead in those states, clearly winning the night. Trump asks "How could they count so many votes when people are just voting? You can't open the boxes that fast, have you seen the boxes? It's FAKE!"

[SaysWho?]

I wish I knew, state-by-state, how each one counts mail-in and if they start as they get them. I remember covering some local races in 08, and McCain was very close to Obama in our county, which is a heavily Democratic County. But that night, a bunch of mail-in/early votes came in and Obama easily soared ahead. So I don't think it takes forever even here in Florida.

[mclumber1]

270 electoral votes to win is based on the maximum number of 538 electoral votes.  If a state doesn't certify their results, they get no representation in the electoral college, which means the number to win the majority is decreased by some amount.  For instance, if Texas were to not certify, it's 38 EVs would go away.  This would decrease the threshold to win from 270 to 251 electoral votes.

[PaladinSolo]

 

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

A lot of the anxiety is based upon the NY democratic primary

[Uaarkson]

After I vote on election day, I’m going home to swallow an entire bottle of xanax.

[Massdriver]

2 hours ago, PaladinSolo said:

 

But again Biden winning the national vote by more than 3% and losing the EC isn't really based in reality. 

 

 A nice graphic with some of the same information. Check out Texas! 

 

I don't like Ohio or Florida.

[SuperSpreader]

I'm scared 

[SaysWho?]

"doomsday porn"  

[PaladinSolo]

 

 

[Signifyin(g)Monkey]

3 hours ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

You can't cite 2016 and ignore polling corrections made in 2018

Even going by what Silver himself claims about historical averages in MOE--2018 included--the numbers should still put you on edge:

Quote

There’s quite a lot of info to digest in that table. But it’s worth starting with the number in the bottom right corner: The average error in all polls conducted in the late stage of campaigns since 1998 is about 6 percentage points. If the average error is 6 points, that means the true, empirically derived margin of error (or 95 percent confidence interval) is closer to 14 or 15 percentage points! That’s much more than you’d infer from the margins of error that pollsters traditionally list, which consider only sampling error and not other potential sources of error and which pertain only to one candidate’s vote share and not the margin between the candidates.

This means that you shouldn’t be surprised when a candidate who had been trailing in the polls by only a few points wins a race. And in some cases, even a poll showing a 10- or 12- or 14- point lead isn’t enough to make a candidate’s lead “safe.”

 

The numbers in Ohio and Pennsylvania are particularly scary.

 

Glad to see some momentum in GA though.  How awesome would it be to pick that up?  You could *almost* cancel out losing Ohio's 18 e.v.'s.

[Chris-]

Georgia within 3% is ‘awesome’ but PA within 4% is scary?

[Joe]

Isn't PA +4.7? 

[CayceG]

Well... might as well. 

 

 

Here's my initial prediction. Can't wait to see how wrong I am. (I bet PA flips red in the next 9 weeks).

[SuperSpreader]

If that happens he refuses to leave, the military shrugs, the democrats wave a finger, and he starts opening fire on all protestors as enemies of the state along with his militias.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Don't just read silver--theres plenty of other good polling aggregators who aren't trying to overcorrect or cya for 2016.

 

Once you weight for educational attainment, registration, and prior voting history, a lot of the polling issues you saw 4 years ago at the state level mellow out. There's still uncertainty mind you, but this was good for more accurately reflecting the 2018 races.

 

You seem to be seeking only reaffirmation from one firm. Don't do this. If you're so concerned get off your rocking chair and do something to influence the result.

[Joe]

23 minutes ago, CayceG said:

Well... might as well. 

 

 

Here's my initial prediction. Can't wait to see how wrong I am. (I bet PA flips red in the next 9 weeks).

 

If we lose PA and FL, I don't think we're taking Arizona bud.

[Joe]

13 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Don't just read silver--theres plenty of other good polling aggregators who aren't trying to overcorrect or cya for 2016.

 

Once you weight for educational attainment, registration, and prior voting history, a lot of the polling issues you saw 4 years ago at the state level mellow out. There's still uncertainty mind you, but this was good for more accurately reflecting the 2018 races.

 

You seem to be seeking only reaffirmation from one firm. Don't do this. If you're so concerned get off your rocking chair and do something to influence the result.

 

There's also nothing wrong with what 538 is saying! 

[Chris-]

12 minutes ago, Joe said:

 

If we lose PA and FL, I don't think we're taking Arizona bud.

Good thing he has PA blue ya dunce!

[Joe]

1 minute ago, Chris- said:

Good thing he has PA blue ya dunce!

 

Read his note ya jamoke!

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Not in and of itself, but Nate has his own agenda, all these guys do, and he's not really the only game in town anymore so branch out. There's a lot of valid critiques of his methodology that doesn't require a degree in statistics to understand.

 

But the constant hand-wringing, without evidence mind you, of the shoe being about to drop against Biden is fucking tiresome.

[Joe]

I learned that word from you btw and now use it irl.

[mclumber1]

8 minutes ago, SlipperySlope said:

If that happens he refuses to leave, the military shrugs, the democrats wave a finger, and he starts opening fire on all protestors as enemies of the state along with his militias.

 

Trump will resign and ask Pence to pardon him.  Then he will flee to Russia.