Joe Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Jason said: 10 million people in Sweden vs ~5.5 million per country for the other three is definitely similarly sized. Double the population is similarly sized? No it's not! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 13 minutes ago, Joe said: Double the population is similarly sized? No it's not! Yes it is, it's the same order of magnitude. @legendback me up here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Not gonna pedant you to death or anything, but I still think that's pretty misleading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 ~15 million with ~1600 deaths vs 10 million and 7k deaths all with similar population demographics and geography and types of government but differed in strategy seems a fair comparison Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 minute ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: ~15 million with ~1600 deaths vs 10 million and 7k deaths all with similar population demographics and geography and types of government but differed in strategy seems a fair comparison Of course and I even said that correcting for population doesn't change the results too much, but saying similarly sized countries when they are not in fact similarly sized is misleading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legend Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 37 minutes ago, Jason said: 10 million people in Sweden vs ~5.5 million per country for the other three is definitely similarly sized. Depends on the context. Since the deaths were an order of magnitude off I can see why they would say "similarly sized" for only 2x in population. But I think what the bigger factor could potentially be is the country density and spread dynamics. This is making me start to spiral into trying to do epidemiology though and I'm not an epidemiologist so I'm just going to stop now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 minute ago, legend said: Depends on the context. Since the deaths were an order of magnitude off I can see why they would say "similarly sized" for only 2x in population. But I think what the bigger factor could potentially be is the country density and spread dynamics. This is making start to spiral into trying to do epidemiology though and I'm not an epidemiologist so I'm just going to stop now Okay but I studied physics and we know how physicists are about wading into other fields. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 But seriously, wading into epidemiology aside, I just don't see it as being misleading to characterize a <2x difference in population as meaning they're "similarly sized". If Norway only had 1 million people then yeah, that would be not similarly sized. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, Jason said: But seriously, wading into epidemiology aside, I just don't see it as being misleading to characterize a <2x difference in population as meaning they're "similarly sized". If Norway only had 1 million people then yeah, that would be not similarly sized. Just seems misleading to me and makes the difference look even more drastic than it is to drive home their point. I dunno, I guess I am lone on this, but they could have made the same point using per capita numbers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 12 minutes ago, Jason said: Okay but I studied physics and we know how physicists are about wading into other fields. Let me tell you about engineers... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 minute ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Let me tell you about engineers... Hey at least physicists don't get into "jet fuel can't melt steel beams" territory--we tend to just overlook important information but avoid crossing into outright bullshit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarSolo Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 hour ago, Jason said: And of course, 12 million people ending up homeless in January will be Biden’s fault. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarSolo Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 18 minutes ago, MarSolo said: Haha suck it libcucks, the numbers are going back down, we'll be at 0 in no time! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 11 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Update your icon to that pic! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 On 12/5/2020 at 12:26 AM, CitizenVectron said: Yikes. And of those 61%, how many are going to only take the first dose and say "eh, good enough," and then not be immune but act like they are? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Spork3245 said: Update your icon to that pic! Ha, my current one is more fitting to the shit I post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Ha, my current one is more fitting to the shit I post Go back to the Mayo Pete pork chop one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 9 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: When you couple that with existing immunity, that should be fairly substantial. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, Joe said: When you couple that with existing immunity, that should be fairly substantial. It'll definitely help but that doesn't mean stadiums and theaters will be safe by then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyser_Soze Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 15 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Ha, my current one is more fitting to the shit I post Also that one has a really harsh shadow which wouldn't look good on an icon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 What % of the US has had COVID already? Probably a good estimate is take the official account and x2, so that would be around 30 million (so around 9%). So if you can get 60% of the pop to take the vaccine, that's 69%, which is probably enough for herd immunity to kick in (assuming 90-95% effective vaccine) to stop the spread. I mean, another 10-20% of the US will have likely had the virus by then anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 minute ago, CitizenVectron said: What % of the US has had COVID already? Probably a good estimate is take the official account and x2, so that would be around 30 million (so around 9%). So if you can get 60% of the pop to take the vaccine, that's 69%, which is probably enough for herd immunity to kick in (assuming 90-95% effective vaccine) to stop the spread. I mean, another 10-20% of the US will have likely had the virus by then anyway. Yep. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 3 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: What % of the US has had COVID already? Probably a good estimate is take the official account and x2, so that would be around 30 million (so around 9%). So if you can get 60% of the pop to take the vaccine, that's 69%, which is probably enough for herd immunity to kick in (assuming 90-95% effective vaccine) to stop the spread. I mean, another 10-20% of the US will have likely had the virus by then anyway. Don't forget the 4 awful months still to come (to get to 2Q21) to infect millions more, counted and uncounted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 12 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: What % of the US has had COVID already? Probably a good estimate is take the official account and x2, so that would be around 30 million (so around 9%). So if you can get 60% of the pop to take the vaccine, that's 69%, which is probably enough for herd immunity to kick in (assuming 90-95% effective vaccine) to stop the spread. I mean, another 10-20% of the US will have likely had the virus by then anyway. But a lot of people won't know they had the virus, so you can't just assume it's vaccinated+previously-infected. I wonder if they're going to make people get tested for antibodies for issuing vaccines or if that would just bog things down too much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Jason said: But a lot of people won't know they had the virus, so you can't just assume it's vaccinated+previously-infected. I wonder if they're going to make people get tested for antibodies for issuing vaccines or if that would just bog things down too much. True but doubling the amount of infected is pretty conservative. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 Also interesting to note: Intent to Get a COVID-19 Vaccine Rises to 60% as Confidence in Research and Development Process Increases | Pew Research Center WWW.PEWRESEARCH.ORG Still about two-in-ten U.S. adults are “pretty certain” they won’t get the vaccine – even when there’s more information. about 65% of Black americans are very or somewhat concerned about getting a serious case of covid, but less than half intend on getting the vaccine when available at this point according to polls. Both are the highest and lowest %, respectively, of any group of americans when surveyed by race Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Also interesting to note: Intent to Get a COVID-19 Vaccine Rises to 60% as Confidence in Research and Development Process Increases | Pew Research Center WWW.PEWRESEARCH.ORG Still about two-in-ten U.S. adults are “pretty certain” they won’t get the vaccine – even when there’s more information. about 65% of Black americans are very or somewhat concerned about getting a serious case of covid, but less than half intend on getting the vaccine when available at this point according to polls. Both are the highest and lowest %, respectively, of any group of americans when surveyed by race I mean can you really blame them? Tuskegee Experiment: The Infamous Syphilis Study - HISTORY WWW.HISTORY.COM Known officially as the Tuskegee Study of Untreated Syphilis in the Negro Male, the study began at a time when there was no known treatment for the disease. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b_m_b_m_b_m Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 I mean, no. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 47 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said: Is she using the lid to file her nails?... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spork3245 Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 38 minutes ago, Joe said: When you couple that with existing immunity, that should be fairly substantial. Isn’t the “natural immunity” only 3-9 months or am I grossly misinformed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted December 7, 2020 Share Posted December 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Spork3245 said: Isn’t the “natural immunity” only 3-9 months or am I grossly misinformed? It lasts at least that, but may last significantly longer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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