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Dorian could be hurricane when it reaches Puerto Rico

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SaysWho?

SaysWho?

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Looks like it's going through an eyewall replacement cycle as well. We could see winds come down, though the hurricane force wind field will expand, meaning hurricane force winds will extend farther from the center.

 

The good news? As this moves north, it'll encounter more wind shear, so even if it makes landfall in Florida, this may be a Cat 3 or 4 upon landfall (official track has it as 3 if it did). Either way, we're not looking at a 165 mph landfall if it does make landfall in Florida. I hate these slow-moving storms. I'm getting Irma flashbacks. :| 

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SaysWho?

SaysWho?

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All right, things working in Florida's favor:

 

1) This is effectively stalled, moving at less than a snail's pace,

2) It bumped north a little bit, and if it's gonna bump anywhere before the big turn north, it needs to bump north as well,

3) Wind shear and cooler waters will help weaken the storm as it moves north, though a major hurricane landfall -- if there were a landfall -- would still be likely. Just not some Cat 5 powerhouse.

 

Not working in its favor:

 

1) Models are forming more of a consensus close to the coast. With the expanded wind field, hurricane force winds are quite likely. How strong is still up in the air, and the east coast could escape with Cat 1 winds if it were to get that close,

2) Storm surge is going to suck.

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SaysWho?

SaysWho?

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Okay, so an eyewall replacement cycle is underway. That means the eye will be replaced by another, which you usually see weakening. That also means the hurricane/TS winds will expand further away from the center, meaning Dorian doesn't have to get as close to bring hurricane force wind over land.

 

It's also cooled the waters due to something called cold water upwelling where cooler water deep below the surface rises to the top since the water is being mixed. Long-short, that'll help weaken the storm along with southwesterly wind shear. If it makes landfall, it ain't doing it as a Cat 5 or strong Cat 4. Cat 3 and weaker Cat 4 are still on the table. Hoping this northerly shift continues because I am beyond thrilled to see the letters W, N and W.

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SaysWho?

SaysWho?

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1 hour ago, SFLUFAN said:

@SaysWho? Just out if curiosity, what are the ocean temperatures in that part of the Atlantic that caused such a seemingly explosive intensification of the storm as it transited from Puerto Rico?

 

80s, yeah. And the fact that rapid intensification occurred after it was already so powerful was stunning.

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SaysWho?

SaysWho?

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Here's the thing: models may have moved a lot, but they've honestly improved tremendously over the past 20 years.

 

20 years ago, we'd have evacuated all of South Florida's coast. Now many in Miami and Broward are sitting around confident they're not getting hit with hurricane winds.

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Jwheel86

Jwheel86

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We're going to ride it out. My brother's family is probably going to ride it out with us. Our house is right on the water on the inside of the Pamlico Sound but is ICF Construction (same as that house on Mexico Beach) with 18 inch concrete and rebar exterior walls, all block interior walls on the first level that ties in the roof, whole house generator with about 8 days of fuel.

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b_m_b_m_b_m

b_m_b_m_b_m

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21 minutes ago, Jason said:

Look, the Bahamas may be gone, but you'll take my copious parking for my gigantic SUVs and obscenely wide freeways from my cold, dead hands. @b_m_b_m_b_m

I'm a simple man, but there's nothing more American than drinking a bud light in my 7 mpg truck with big tits while stuck in gridlock traffic on my way home from my 9-5 accounting job

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Commissar SFLUFAN

Commissar SFLUFAN

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The sheer devastation of Abaco can be seen here.

Quote

Aerial footage has revealed shipping containers ripped open like tin cans, houses scattered and torn apart, and boats hundreds of feet inland from the nearest marinas. The aerial footage was shot by storm chasers who flew over Abaco, the first island to get struck by Hurricane Dorian. WXChasing, the storm chasers who shot the footage, reported that conditions were rough and that there were still hurricane-force winds (winds greater than 74 mph) blowing when they took off.

 

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Keyser_Soze

Keyser_Soze

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20 hours ago, thewhyteboar said:

@SaysWho? do you take requests? Tropical storm Lingling is heading close to Seoul this weekend.

 

16 hours ago, SaysWho? said:

 

tbh, I've barely had a lick of time to look at the other systems in the Atlantic, never mind Lingling. :p 

 

You need to assure me and @thewhyteboar that Park Min-young will be safe! :pray:

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