Do you think Biden will run again and/or will he?

[Fizzzzle]

I still find it concerning that, 18 months out, the Democrats are still cagey about whether Biden is going to run for re-election. 

 

It's not without precedent. When Truman decided not to run in 1952, they waited until March of that year (when he got primaried in New Hampshire) before making the decision. You *could* argue that's why the Democrats lost the presidency, because they left the decision so late that no other candidate was able to build any steam (I would argue that Eisenhower was going to win regardless of which party he ran with - both parties tried to court him - so it's a moot point).

 

LBJ also left it until March of 1968 to announce he would not be running for reelection. There's a whole story behind that and how the Vietnam war had already started to become a "...whoops" for his presidency. The Tet Offensive started at the end of January and was a giant clusterfuck to the point that the Democrat party became split. There's also the fact that RFK was assassinated in June, who was the obvious successor to Johnson in the Democrat party. RFK was the clear frontrunner and his assassination left a mere 4 months or so for another candidate to emerge.

 

 

Those are the only 2 presidents in living memory who chose not to run for reelection, and they both had the common trait of being embroiled in increasingly unpopular wars.

 

 

My concern is, however, that in both situations, you can CLEARLY see that the decision to not run again was left far too late.

 

I'm not sure whether I think Biden should run again (my gut says "no"), but if he's not going to, I think they should say it now. The longer they wait, the better chance the Republicans have.

[Guest]

Unless he is physically incapable, absolutely

[Zaku3]

He is probably gonna have to run again. The closest thing to a star the dems had is Bernie and they don't want any of that. 

 

His in theory successor would be Kamala but they basically sunk her by always using her for the stuff they want to say but don't want it to negatively impact Biden. I legit feel bad about her "Do Not Come." speech. Tone deaf speech. I almost have to believe she was given those lines to not think she is a terrible human being.

[Fizzzzle]

3 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

Unless he is physically incapable, absolutely

Maybe they're waiting to see if Trump ends up being the nominee again? Because I don't think enough has changed in the last couple years for them to expect Trump v. Biden 2024 to turn out any different than Trump 2020. But if the Republicans end up running someone else, that is very concerning to me

[Zaku3]

7 minutes ago, Fizzzzle said:

Maybe they're waiting to see if Trump ends up being the nominee again? Because I don't think enough has changed in the last couple years for them to expect Trump v. Biden 2024 to turn out any different than Trump 2020. But if the Republicans end up running someone else, that is very concerning to me

 

My concern of this line of thinking is that 2016 should have been a Clinton clean sweep. The folly of success is it makes you think what was good enough for today. Will be good enough for tomorrow. Like Trump fucked up a pandemic and he lost because of that. If he legit like cut 1 or 2 more stimulus checks he'd probably have won handily. He was ultimately just surrounded by people to obsessed with being Republicans to see how easy of a W that is and taking it.

[Fizzzzle]

I suppose my worry is less about whether he should or shouldn't (I could be persuaded either way), but I think we're firmly entering the territory of they need to decide now, and publicly. If they wait until march of next year to decide he's not going to run again, that would be disastrous.

[Kal-El814]

21 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

Unless he is physically incapable, absolutely

 

This is the only sane take on this topic.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

54 minutes ago, Kal-El814 said:

 

This is the only sane take on this topic.

The only take tbh

[Fizzzzle]

54 minutes ago, Kal-El814 said:

 

This is the only sane take on this topic.

Care to explain why?

 

It seems to me that a vote for Biden is simply a vote for the Democratic party, not a vote for Biden himself, given that he'll be 82 at the start of the next term and you have to assume there's a much greater than 0 chance that he will not make it through another term (whether he dies or just lose loses capacity), which puts a much greater emphasis on VP. So then you have to wonder whether people will vote essentially for Kamala Harris

 

[Kal-El814]

11 minutes ago, Fizzzzle said:

Care to explain why?

 

"Will Biden do something that only one President born in the 20th century has done," just isn't a good question, I don't know what to say. If he's capable of running, he'll run. The mummified corpse of Diane Feinstein is still in the Senate and I'm not sure she knows what year it is, Biden's obviously slowed down since he was VP but a lifelong career politician who's always wanted to be President isn't going to walk away from the job if he can hack it.

 

EDIT - I also don't accept that the Democrats are being "cagey" about this.

[Fizzzzle]

22 minutes ago, Kal-El814 said:

 

"Will Biden do something that only one President born in the 20th century has done," just isn't a good question, I don't know what to say. If he's capable of running, he'll run. The mummified corpse of Diane Feinstein is still in the Senate and I'm not sure she knows what year it is, Biden's obviously slowed down since he was VP but a lifelong career politician who's always wanted to be President isn't going to walk away from the job if he can hack it.

 

EDIT - I also don't accept that the Democrats are being "cagey" about this.

The definition of cagey is "reluctant to give information," and given that there is concern about Bidens plans for 2024, that pretty much fits right in with the definition.

 

Again, im not personally arguing whether he should run or not, but if he's not going to run, they're getting to a point where they need to shit or get off the pot.

[Jwheel86]

Running is the default option so therefore the easier option. That said I really don't like talk of there being no obvious successor, that's what a well ran primary is meant to generate. 

[outsida]

The whole premise of this thread is BS, Biden has already said he is running(all but filing official paperwork), he’s doing a great job, trump isn’t some unstoppable machine(he hasn’t won the popular vote in any election with less challenges). 

[Fizzzzle]

6 minutes ago, outsida said:

The whole premise of this thread is BS, Biden has already said he is running(all but filing official paperwork), h

Source?

[outsida]

4 minutes ago, Fizzzzle said:

Source?

 

Quote

“Is there any reason for any of us to think that he is not running again?” asks Darlene Superville of the Associated Press. “We’ve heard him say several times that it is his intention.”

“Are you not believing this, Darlene?” Biden replies. “How many times does he have to say it for you to believe it?”

 

Joe Biden Is Running, So Please Stop Annoying Jill About It

NYMAG.COM

---

The exasperated First Lady said scheduling Joe’s campaign launch is “pretty much” all that’s left to do. That’s enough confirmation for me.

 

[unogueen]

Software issues are going to be rampant in a short time. I'd like someone with an actual perspective to be on board.

[5timechamp]

If anything the age of both Trump and Biden would be seen as one of the reasons to move beyond them.. as others have stated if a change is an option sooner rather than later would be wise… not too interested in ultra grumpy old men debates..

[Fizzzzle]

The dangerous position I think people ignore is how much Biden carried the 2020 vote on being "not Donald Trump."

 

If Trump doesn't end up being the candidate for 2024, there's nothing to galvanize left-leaning voters.

[Keyser_Soze]

11 minutes ago, Fizzzzle said:

The dangerous position I think people ignore is how much Biden carried the 2020 vote on being "not Donald Trump."

 

If Trump doesn't end up being the candidate for 2024, there's nothing to galvanize left-leaning voters.

 

Now he's "not whatever POS GOP ghoul is running"

[SaysWho?]

He's running.

 

3 hours ago, Fizzzzle said:

If Trump doesn't end up being the candidate for 2024, there's nothing to galvanize left-leaning voters.

 

On what basis?

[Keyser_Soze]

26 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

On what basis?

 

On this basis

 

Spoiler

 

 

[Spork3245]

The people who claim or think Biden hasn’t done anything during his presidency really don’t pay attention, IMO.

[Joe]

Biden has been the president of my lifetime! Nothing to galvanize left-leaning voters, my ass!

[SaysWho?]

The "nothing to galvanize" kind of irks me and seems like an easy thing to say and a hard thing to quantify, especially coming off 2022 where we saw "boring" candidates, such as Wisconsin Governor Evers or now-Governor of Arizona Katie Hobbs, beat their more colorful counterparts.

 

I'm a left-leaning voter and I'm excited. The problem I have with some of my left-leaning friends is they will criticize the Democratic Party -- in many ways, rightly -- for not getting things they want done, but when it gets done, it's irrelevant because this other thing didn't get done.

• Obama is BEGGING for infrastructure money and Republicans won't do anything! We need to FIX America especially after spending all that money overseas in other countries.
  • Biden signs the most significant infrastructure bill into law in decades, and progressives ignore it and deride it as a highway law despite the significant investments in airports, transportation, and green technology.
• Democrats wonder why young people don't vote. Hey, do something they care about like canceling student debt!
  • Biden does what he campaigned on, canceling $10k in student debt with a surprise $20k for Pell grants, AND cancels debt on people scammed by scam colleges. Somehow doesn't matter because Republicans are trying to block it, so let's blame Biden? 
• Hey Dems why not work on big climate legislation?
  • Biden signs into law the most significant climate legislation in history. Literally a HUGE deal, and let's not forget that the 'y shud we do stuff when china dont do nothing bout nothing' is the SAME SHIT other countries say about us, except they CAN'T say that about us anymore. AND he's increased NASA funding which is going into weather/climate tech. 
• We need to do something about guns!
  • Biden signs the first gun bill into law since the 1990s. But it doesn't count because it doesn't ban assault weapons? Which I agree, and so does Biden, but if the votes aren't there, he can't strap someone down and whip them until they vote yes. Give him bigger majorities.
• Why not do things that help people instead of corporations?
  • It's easier to organize than it has been in a while specifically because of Biden and Democrats taking over the NLRB. AND his CHIPS Act, IRA, and infrastructure are creating factories, especially GREEN factories, IN THE UNITED STATES. And he's voided forced arbitration for sexual assault at workplaces. And because they also have control of the FTC, anti-worker policies such as non-compete, or things such as signing up for a service via online but only being able to get out of the service via a phone call, are being attacked and curtailed. Which WHY DOESN'T THIS MATTER SINCE WE KEEP TALKING ABOUT HOW THE DISMANTLING OF UNIONS HAS WIDENED INEQUALITY? Let's not forget the American Rescue Plan which, among other things, extended the child tax credit for a LONG time.
• Young people like pot and so does everyone else this is an EASY win Dems c'mon
  • Biden pardoned all federal offenses of simple marijuana possession in first major steps toward decriminalization. Biden will task the Department of Health and Human Services and Attorney General Merrick Garland to "expeditiously" review how marijuana is scheduled under federal law, the first step toward potentially easing a federal classification that currently places marijuana in the same category as heroin and LSD. This isn't for show; this is a big fucking deal, right? RIGHT?
• omg congress is so dumb usps is important and they're bleeding money let's fix it
  • He did. Postal Service Reform Act. Why does this not matter?!
• Republicans played the long game with judges but dems are just sitting on their hands
  • The Democrats have outpaced all presidents on judicial appointments in the first two years of a new president, including the first black Supreme Court justice of the United States.
• Okay but no Medicare-for-All wtf dems
  • As if he ever had the votes. However, what did he have votes for? Inflation Reduction Act caps insulin costs for Medicare recipients. And now company after company is capping insulin costs. AND it extends subsidies for the Affordable Care Act. AND hearing aids are now available over the counter.

 

The problem with being a progressive is that you always want progress, so you're never satisfied with a status quo. But you don't have to be "satisfied" as in resting all your laurels; you can still be fired up by fucking progress. The conservative Supreme Court fucked up money in politics, voting rights, and abortion rights for a long time and we're actually beginning to dig out of that whole; not being fired up is one part of a tapestry of shit that got us to this point. LFG

[SuperSpreader]

30 minutes ago, Joe said:

Biden has been the president of my lifetime! Nothing to galvanize left-leaning voters, my ass!

 

I think virtue signaling liberals who don't vote want more virtue signaling to post about their approval.

[SaysWho?]

Sometimes I feel my progressive buddies are like romantics — the chase of getting things done is more exciting than the thing itself.

 

Part of the beauty of not settling for bad, but also part of the problem with not recognizing progress as it comes.

[AbsolutSurgen]

Why would Biden NOT run again?  Very few politicians walk away on their own.

 

However, SHOULD he run again?

IMHO, he won last time in a large part due to people voting against Trump.  (Both due to swing voters not liking Trump, and higher than expected turnout.)

 

But an 82-year-old President with a VP that isn't particularly popular against a non-Trump candidate?  Doesn't sound like a slam-dunk win.

The question is, what do swing voters think of him?  My sense, is that he doesn't inspire a lot of love from them.

If I were the Democrat leadership, I would want to find someone else to run.

 

[Kal-El814]

5 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

 

If I were the Democrat leadership, I would want to find someone else to run.

 

 

This is fucking insane.

[AbsolutSurgen]

What is Biden's approval rating? 

Spoiler

His net approval rating has fallen 25 ppt. since he was elected.

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Polls in early 2023 are not instructive, predictive, or otherwise useful when talking about the 2024 election

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Your own link even proves it lmao

[CitizenVectron]

He will run again, and replace Harris with his new VP, Mr. Beast

[SuperSpreader]

He should replace Harris with Hunter 

[Kal-El814]

14 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

He will run again, and replace Harris with his new VP, Mr. Beast

 

Last Senator to leave the circle becomes the next President

[SaysWho?]

His approval went from 53 to 43 since elected, but it's gone from 37.9 to 42.9 since last summer and hit 43.9 earlier this year, so it's not like he's shown he can't bring them back up. Look at Obama, who went from 65 to around 45 at this point. He was at 50+ by October 2012 and won easily. Bush was getting an Iraq War bump and would soon be at 71% approval, especially after the "Mission Accomplished" banner that would eventually come back to haunt him, yet he was mostly below 50 in the last year, cracking 50 only a few times and still managed to win reelection. Clinton looked like he was toast until he won easily in 96. H.W. Bush looked like the most popular fucker ever until the economy went into recession. Reagan went from 68% to 35% in his third year and ended up winning 49 states by the following year.

 

Approval ratings are a point in time, not a predictor. His ratings could be 30 for all I know by October 2024, but using a change between beginning of term and now misses everything that happened in between and a future we can't predict.