Do you think Biden will run again and/or will he?

[Guest]

36 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

If I were the Democrat leadership, I would want to find someone else to run.

The incumbent advantage > than literally anything else they could come up with

[SaysWho?]

Incumbency is underrated.

 

Ex: if someone came to this board and started posting like @sblfilms, or making jokes like @Keyser_Soze, or sharing classic memes/IGN pics like @Kal-El814, you'd probably think, "Dude stfu you're not important enough to start acting like that."

 

Board incumbency goes a long way. Political incumbency is  

[AbsolutSurgen]

3 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

The incumbent advantage > than literally anything else they could come up with

I would have thought that the incumbent advantage would have materialized in high 1st-term favourability ratings like Obama (and previous Presidents had), rather than a net favourability rating like Trump did at this point in his Presidency.

[SaysWho?]

Just now, AbsolutSurgen said:

I would have thought that the incumbent advantage would have materialized in high 1st-term favourability ratings like Obama (and previous Presidents had), rather than a net favourability rating like Trump did at this point in his Presidency.

 

Obama was unpopular for most of his 1st term. It's also not what incumbency advantage is; you have advantages when running as a known quantity, both to voters and to donors, that you don't as a challenger.

[AbsolutSurgen]

1 minute ago, SaysWho? said:

 

Obama was unpopular for most of his 1st term.

[SaysWho?]

12 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

 

Bro, if you don't know REALLY what you're talking about, don't start quickly googling shit that proves my point, lol. His approval ratings sank shortly after inauguration. From your own 538 link:

 

 

These aren't "high 1st-term favourability ratings" nor are they predictive nor do they have anything to do with incumbency advantage. Ask Bush how long that 71% he acquired around this point lasted.

 

EDIT: Hell, favorability is different from approval ratings. Favorability is just what you think of the guy in general. This is Gallup's actual approval rating:

 

 

Sub 50 most of the time.

[SaysWho?]

Here's the 'everybody before him had high ratings' comparison:

 

 

One who had sky-high approval lost because it didn't stay that way, one who had sky-high approval went sub-50 but was able to win, and three with low approvals won reelection handily because they brought it up. Only one with low approval lost, that one being Trump. 

 

And why was it still hard to beat Trump (besides the crappy electoral system)? Because he was an incumbent.

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

I would have thought that the incumbent advantage would have materialized in high 1st-term favourability ratings like Obama (and previous Presidents had), rather than a net favourability rating like Trump did at this point in his Presidency.

Incumbent advantage has just about zero to do with how well liked you are by the public. The general concept at play is that people have a greater fear that something new will be worse than what they currently have than hope that it will be better.

 

This is why most people order the same dish most of the time when they go to a restaurant on multiple trips.

 

It is why people tend to keep going back to the same brand of car over and over, even when competitors have attracted features or pricing.

 

And I’m sure you can think of a dozen more examples of this that you’ve seen in life. It is literally everywhere in human decision making.

[Joe]

1 hour ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

What is Biden's approval rating? 

  Hide contents

His net approval rating has fallen 25 ppt. since he was elected.

 

 
Wow this is so unlike what has happened with every president in fucking history ever!

[Keyser_Soze]

@SaysWho? Will decide if Biden runs again.

[stepee]

I don’t see Biden running again at his age but perhaps a brisk power walk. 

[Massdriver]

I hope so and think he will. It's too risky for anyone else to face Trump. 

[ort]

Unless something weird happens he's running. He's always said he's running. Not super duper officially with all the paperwork yet, but people keep asking him and he keeps says that his intention has always been to run.

[AbsolutSurgen]

1 hour ago, Joe said:

 
Wow this is so unlike what has happened with every president in fucking history ever!

Going back to the last 13 Presidents,  the only ones with negative Net Favourabilities at this point of their administration (Biden at ~10ppt. negative ATM) were Reagan and Trump.

[SaysWho?]

3 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Going back to the last 13 Presidents,  the only ones with negative Net Favourabilities at this point of their administration (Biden at ~10ppt. negative ATM) were Reagan and Trump.

I literally just proved the opposite. And proved that some with low approval ratings saw then tank, whereas some with low approval ratings got it up. Actual favorability (aka do you like the dude) isn’t approval or a vote. It’s also not what an incumbency advantage is.

 

wut r u doin

[AbsolutSurgen]

2 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

I literally just proved the opposite. And proved that some with low approval ratings saw then tank, whereas some with low approval ratings got it up. Actual favorability (aka do you like the dude) isn’t approval or a vote. It’s also not what an incumbency advantage is.

 

wut r u doin

The scale looks some of the numbers look much closer than they are.

[SaysWho?]

15 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

The scale looks some of the numbers look much closer than they are.

THE NUMBERS ARE LITERALLY THERE IN MY PICTURE. SUB 50

 

 

And the most popular guy at this point fucking lost spectacularly.
 

You started with a conclusion and are now trying to prove it instead of researching and landing on a conclusion. Many of us have looked at these numbers for ages; you need to listen and learn on this topic, dude.

[AbsolutSurgen]

4 minutes ago, SaysWho? said:

THE NUMBERS ARE LITERALLY THERE IN MY PICTURE. SUB 50

 

 

And the most popular guy at this point fucking lost spectacularly.
 

You started with a thesis and are now trying to prove it instead of researching and landing on a thesis. Many of us have looked at these numbers for ages; you need to listen and learn on this topic, dude.

I've been schooled by the person who can't even figure out what a "Net Favourability" is.

[SaysWho?]

5 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

I've been schooled by the person who can't even figure out what a "Net Favourability" is.

Dude you conflated favorability with approval, and think it had to do with incumbency advantage. And you haven’t owned up to not knowing what it means. Now you’re blaming it on the size of the picture.

 

You have no idea what’s going on right now. Maybe another quick Google search will help you.

[Joe]

So he went from posting job approval numbers to favorability ratings? Is our boy illiterate or just taking the piss?

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

Favorability has little to do with anything Because elections aren’t just about the candidate they’re also about the opponent and opposition party and buddy I have some bad news regarding republicans: they fucking suck and are hated more than dems. 
 

this favorability/approval/whatever bullshit also completely glosses over the coalitional nature of the Democratic Party. Yeah some segments may not like Joe right now but when push comes to shove and it’s decision time and the only other viable option is the career criminal who tried to overturn our democracy the coalition lines up, assuming biden doesn’t complete just trash the party and radically change his positions he’s held for most of his life between now and Election Day. That’s not to say there aren’t grumblings but when contrasted in an election is when the rubber hits the road because these polls in and of themselves do not represent anything and it’s not in and of itself how we select leaders. 

[Brian]

[TwinIon]

Someone tell me if I'm wrong in this, but it seems to me that all the questioning of Biden running again has come from outside. I feel like it's always been driven by political commentators and based almost entirely on his age. A quick search turned up a couple stories from 2019 credited to aides that Biden was thinking about not running again if elected, but that's it.

 

If Biden himself had ever said something that would indicate that he wouldn't run, I'd give the question some credence.

 

I also think he's mostly done a good job and the other candidates I liked best in 2020 are his contemporaries, so it's not like you get out of the age question if you nominate Warren or Bernie. Yes, I'd like to seen younger candidates emerge, but Kamala's time as VP hasn't exactly solidified her as the heir apparent. I'll happily vote for Joe when he runs again, and just hold out hope that a good candidate from a younger generation emerges after that.

[unogueen]

Historic patterns won't matter so much because regardless of leadership, upcoming problems are going to be oversized compared to the bog standard governing of post wwii politics. Covid was enough to upend most industries in ways they can't recover from. Climate issues are going to shit the bed even more. Not to mention the massive crisis of climate emigration that comes from places that cannot sustain people anymore. Or production. The rising tensions in Asia with India/Russia/China/Vietnam and the rest of SE Asia. The galvanization of South America and Africa. both whom are clearly sick of the modern order. And of course all the domestic crap, which incidentally covers a large swath of depressed opinions about civic life across the global north. It's not about good vs. evil. People need to eat.