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Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (30 May 2024) - Biden gives Ukraine permission to strike some targets inside Russia with American weapons


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1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

The aktual reason Russian troops are so ill-equipped and their guns ill-kitted is because they prefer 360 no-scopes compared to soft, western soldiers:

 

 

I also remember reports of American troops without body armor going into Iraq. Good times. 

  • True 1
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ISW analysis for 22 March 2022:

 

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

Russian forces did not make any major advances on March 22 and Ukrainian forces conducted local counterattacks northwest of Kyiv and around Mykolayiv. Russian forces around Kyiv and other major cities are increasingly prioritizing long-range bombardment

 

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Russian forces did not make any major advances on March 22 and Ukrainian forces conducted local counterattacks northwest of Kyiv and around Mykolayiv. Russian forces around Kyiv and other major cities are increasingly prioritizing long-range bombardment after the failure of Russian ground offensives but are unlikely to force major cities to surrender in this manner. Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations toward the northeastern Ukrainian cities of Chernihiv, Sumy, or Kharkiv in the last 24 hours. Russian forces continued to further reduce the Mariupol pocket.

 

Key Takeaways

  • Russian forces are likely moving to a phase of protracted bombardment of Ukrainian cities due to the failure of Russia’s initial campaign to encircle and seize Kyiv and other major cities.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted successful localized counterattacks northwest of Kyiv.
  • Russian forces in northeastern Ukraine did not conduct any offensive operations in the past 24 hours.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled several Russian assaults in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the past 24 hours.
  • Russian forces continue to make slow but steady progress reducing the Mariupol pocket.
  • Russia may have failed to appoint an overall commander for its invasion of Ukraine, leading to Russian axes of advance competing for limited supplies and failing to synchronize their operations.

Russian forces are likely moving to a phase of protracted bombardment of Ukrainian cities due to the failure of Russia’s initial campaign to encircle and seize Kyiv and other major cities. Russian forces continue to conduct air and missile strikes against both civilian and military targets across unoccupied Ukraine in the absence of offensive ground operations.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff reported at 6:00 pm local time on March 22 that Russian aircraft conducted over 80 sorties in the past 24 hours.[2] Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby additionally stated on March 21 that Russian forces have increased their long-range bombardment against Ukrainian cities in an attempt to force them to surrender.[3] Russian forces are unlikely to force Ukrainian cities to surrender with bombardment alone.

 

Russian forces face continuing logistics and reinforcement issues. The Ukrainian General Staff specified for the first time on March 22 that Russian forces—particularly highlighting the 7thAir Assault Division operating around Kherson—are suffering casualties due to a poor medical supply system and lack of medicine.[4]The Ukrainian General Staff additionally stated that Russian forces face growing supply issues, claiming some unspecified units have stockpiles of food and ammunition for no more than three days.[5] Russian forces continue to cobble together ad hoc units of servicemen from several units to replace combat losses.[6]Russia is expanding its methods to generate replacements, including expanding forcible conscription in Donetsk Oblast and forcing Russians with large amounts of debt to sign military contracts in return for exemption from credit obligations.[7]The Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 22 that Russia is increasingly carrying out propaganda aimed at Belarusian servicemen to incentivize Belarusian participation in the war, although ISW cannot independently verify this claim and an unnamed US senior defense official stated on March 21 that the United States has seen no indication that Belarus is preparing to enter the war.[8]

 

Russian forces are unlikely to successfully resolve their command and control issues in the near term. A senior US defense official stated on March 21 that Russian forces are increasingly using unsecured communications due to lacking sufficient capacity on secured networks.[9] CNN additionally quoted multiple sources on March 21 that the United States has been unable to determine if Russia has appointed an overall commander for the invasion of Ukraine.[10] These sources stated that Russian units from different military districts appear to be competing for resources and are not coordinating their operations.

 

 

 

DraftUkraineCoTMarch22,2022.png

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ISW also published a pair of supplementary pieces today:

 

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

The initial Russian campaign to invade and conquer Ukraine is culminating without achieving its objectives—it is being defeated, in other words. The war is settling into a stalemate condition in much of the theater. But the war isn’t over and isn’t likel

 

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The initial Russian campaign to invade and conquer Ukraine is culminating without achieving its objectives—it is being defeated, in other words. The war is settling into a stalemate condition in much of the theater. But the war isn’t over and isn’t likely to end soon. Nor is the outcome of the war yet clear. The Russians might still win; the Ukrainians might win; the war might expand to involve other countries; or it might turn into a larger scale version of the stalemate in Ukraine’s east that had persisted from 2014 to the start of Russia’s invasion in February 2022. The failure of Russia’s initial military campaign nevertheless marks an important inflection that has implications for the development and execution of Western military, economic, and political strategies. The West must continue supplying Ukraine with the weapons it needs to fight, but it must now also expand its aid dramatically to help keep Ukraine alive as a country even in conditions of stalemate.

 

 

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

The Kremlin retains its maximalist political demands in ongoing negotiations with Ukraine and is unlikely to soften them despite the Russian military failing to achieve its objectives. Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated Russia’s political d

 

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The ISW Russia team has relaunched its Ukraine Conflict Updates as a semi-weekly synthetic product covering key political and rhetorical events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine. This update covers events from March 18—21.

 

Key Takeaways March 18-21

  • The Kremlin is unlikely to withdraw its maximalist political demands of Ukraine in ongoing negotiations, despite the Russian military failing to achieve its objectives.
  • The Kremlin staged a 195,000-person rally in Moscow attended by President Putin on March 18 to falsely portray high levels of public support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
  • Kremlin bans of Facebook, Instagram, and other major western platforms in Russia are likely intended to coerce these companies to meet Russian censorship standards to retain their market share in Russia.
  • Russian officials continue to downplay the impact of new sanctions and proposed retaliatory measures against international companies that have left Russia.
  • The Kremlin continued to set conditions for a possible false flag chemical or radiological attack in Ukraine by promoting false claims of threats from United States-funded biolaboratories in Ukraine.
  • Eastern European NATO heads of state called for a more proactive NATO military posture and response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the leadup to an emergency NATO summit on March 24.
  • China publicly stated it will not provide financial or military assistance to Russia and pledged further humanitarian assistance to Ukraine but blamed the United States for the war in Ukraine.

 

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    56 minutes ago, PaladinSolo said:

     

     

     

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    “Ukraine has been effective in the sky because we operate on our own land,” Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force said. “The enemy flying into our airspace is flying into the zone of our air defense systems.” He described the strategy as luring Russian planes into air defense traps.

     

    Neat, they're using the same strategy I do in Civ when I'm completely fucked for oil next to an enemy that already has aircraft, just induce them to fly at your anti-air infantry so they can get fucking slaughtered.

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    2 minutes ago, Jason said:

    Neat, they're using the same strategy I do in Civ when I'm completely fucked for oil next to an enemy that already has aircraft, just induce them to fly at your anti-air infantry so they can get fucking slaughtered.

     

    And Russia is falling for it...sure explains a lot that the Russian military is apparently being controlled by the same AI Firaxis uses to fight wars in Civ.

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    1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said:

     

     

    I'm sure this was posted earlier, but it's definitely worth re-visiting:

     

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    WWW.WSJ.COM

    In the two-day battle of Voznesensk, local volunteers and the military repelled the invaders, who fled leaving behind armor and dead soldiers. ‘They had no orders for what to do if they are defeated.’

     

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    The fact that this is in the shape of a shipping container makes me hope that they captured this via the Fulton Recovery System

     

    EW-SYSTEM-UKRAINE-RUSSIA.jpg?quality=85
    WWW.THEDRIVE.COM

    Russia's lost Krasukha-4 electronic warfare system command module would be a prize for foreign intelligence agencies.

     

     

    • Shocked 1
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    6 minutes ago, Ricofoley said:

    The fact that this is in the shape of a shipping container makes me hope that they captured this via the Fulton Recovery System

     

    EW-SYSTEM-UKRAINE-RUSSIA.jpg?quality=85
    WWW.THEDRIVE.COM

    Russia's lost Krasukha-4 electronic warfare system command module would be a prize for foreign intelligence agencies.

     

     

    Kojima may really BE a fucking genius.

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