Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (26 May 2024) - Ukrainian drone attack might have seriously damaged Russian strategic early warning radar site

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 18 March 2022:

 

Ukraine Conflict Update 17 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Russian and Ukrainian negotiators have likely agreed that Ukraine will not join NATO but disagree on Ukraine’s neutrality, disarmament, and territorial claims as of March 17. The Financial Times reported on March 15 that Russian and Ukrainian negotiators

 

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Ukrainian forces conducted a major successful counterattack around Mykolayiv in the past several days, and Russian forces continued to secure territorial gains only around Mariupol on March 18. Russian forces face growing morale and supply problems, including growing reports of self-mutilation among Russian troops to avoid deployment to Ukraine and shortages of key guided munitions. The Ukrainian General Staff continued to report on March 18 that Russia has failed to achieve its strategic objectives in Ukraine, including destroying the Ukrainian Armed Forces, capturing Kyiv, and establishing control over Ukraine to the east bank of the Dnipro River—the first time the Ukrainian General Staff included this territorial conquest as an explicit Russian objective.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff additionally stated that Ukrainian forces “continue step by step to liberate the temporarily occupied territory of Ukraine in all directions” on March 18, the first Ukrainian mention of conducting counterattacks “in all directions.”[2]

 

Key Takeaways

• The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russia has “significantly exhausted its human resources” due to battle casualties, cases of self-mutilation to avoid deployment, and psychological factors.
• Ukrainian forces likely conducted a successful counteroffensive against Russian forces around Mykolayiv in the past several days.
• The ability of Ukrainian forces to conduct a successful major counterattack indicates Russian forces attempting to encircle Mykolayiv likely overstretched, and Russian forces are unlikely to have the capability to resume offensive operations toward Odesa in the near term.
• Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations northwest or northeast of Kyiv on March 18.
• Russian forces continue to make steady progress reducing the Mariupol pocket.
• Ukrainian forces halted a Russian attempt to advance southeast of Kharkiv, through the city of Izyum, in the past 24 hours. Russia is deploying additional reserves to reinforce the Kharkiv axis of advance.
• Russian and proxy forces made minor territorial gains north of the city of Severodonetsk in Luhansk Oblast and will likely assault the city itself in the next 24-48 hours.
• Ukrainian military intelligence created an official website to provide support and guidance to Ukrainian fighters and civilians in Russian-occupied territory.

 

 

[Jwheel86]

2 minutes ago, Air_Delivery said:

The US showing the world why we don't have universal health insurance. 

 

It is mostly the US's fault. The price of NATO equipment is set largely by what the US is willing to pay since the US is the biggest buyer. Since defense contractors own Congress that number is very high. The result is NATO countries struggle to afford NATO equipment. 

[CitizenVectron]

1 hour ago, Jwheel86 said:

 

This is going to be a problem for a lot of countries providing aide. 

 

My interpretation of that was that we've exhausted the stuff we can give, not that all the stuff is gone. But I do agree that the Canadian military is drastically under-equipped.

[skillzdadirecta]

18 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

My interpretation of that was that we've exhausted the stuff we can give, not that all the stuff is gone. But I do agree that the Canadian military is drastically under-equipped.

Time to invade Canada and get all of that sweet, sweet syrup

 

[Air_Delivery]

33 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

My interpretation of that was that we've exhausted the stuff we can give, not that all the stuff is gone. But I do agree that the Canadian military is drastically under-equipped.

I'm sure China is not liking the fact this war has made every country in the world reassess and reinvest in its military. 

[Ricofoley]

3 cosmonauts arrive at space station in yellow and blue | AP News

APNEWS.COM

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NEW YORK (AP) — Three Russian cosmonauts arrived at the International Space Station on Friday wearing yellow flight suits with blue accents, colors that appeared to match the Ukrainian flag. The men were the first new arrivals on the space station since the start of the Russian war in Ukraine last month.

 

hmmm

[Xbob42]

Haha, Putin throw me out the window if I'm not on Earth!

[thewhyteboar]

 

[Air_Delivery]

General Staff: Armed Forces of Ukraine killed Russian Lieutenant General

WWW.PRAVDA.COM.UA

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Olha Hluschenko – Saturday, 19 March 2022, 06:56

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Russia says it used hypersonic missiles in Ukraine for first time

WWW.ALJAZEERA.COM

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Aeroballistic missiles destroyed a large underground warehouse containing missiles and aviation ammunition, Russia says.

 

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Russia says it used its newest Kinzhal hypersonic missiles for the first time in Ukraine to destroy a weapons storage site in the country’s west.

 

Russia’s Interfax news agency said it was the first time Russia had deployed the hypersonic Kinzhal system since it sent its troops into Ukraine on February 24.

 

“The Kinzhal aviation missile system with hypersonic aeroballistic missiles destroyed a large underground warehouse containing missiles and aviation ammunition in the village of Deliatyn in the Ivano-Frankivsk region,” defence ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said on Saturday.

 

The region of Ivano-Frankivsk shares a 50km (30 miles) long border with NATO member Romania.

 

 

 

[Joe]

53 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

Russia says it used hypersonic missiles in Ukraine for first time

WWW.ALJAZEERA.COM

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Aeroballistic missiles destroyed a large underground warehouse containing missiles and aviation ammunition, Russia says.

 

 

 

Probably bullshit right.

[Mercury33]

10 hours ago, Air_Delivery said:

I'm sure China is not liking the fact this war has made every country in the world reassess and reinvest in its military. 

Becasue they were planning on invading and conquering the west soon?

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

11 minutes ago, Mercury33 said:

Becasue they were planning on invading and conquering the west soon?

 

He's referring to the Pacific nations.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

50 minutes ago, Joe said:

Probably bullshit right.

 

Probably not, but hypersonics are really just an impressive-sounding buzzword at this point.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Jomini's daily intelligence briefing:

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

This is a MiG-31 Foxhound armed with a Kinzhal:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CayceG]

1 hour ago, Joe said:

Probably bullshit right.

 

Not necessarily. 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[Comet]

I’m just surprised to have learned that every day tractors can haul tanks 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CayceG]

This is allegedly the first footage we have of the hypersonic air launched ballistic missile Kinzhal in flight over Ukraine on its way to the underground bunker target south of Ivano Frankivsk. And yet another POTTY MOUTHED Ukrainian. 

 

 

 

I believe the man is saying something similar to "Look! Fuck this cunt!" More literally, "Behold! You cunt, fuck this dick!"

[Littleronin]

55 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

So those pics look an awful lot like rural America whenever somebody sneezes the wrong way. 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[LazyPiranha]

6 hours ago, CayceG said:

This is allegedly the first footage we have of the hypersonic air launched ballistic missile Kinzhal in flight over Ukraine on its way to the underground bunker target south of Ivano Frankivsk. And yet another POTTY MOUTHED Ukrainian. 

 

 

 

I believe the man is saying something similar to "Look! Fuck this cunt!" More literally, "Behold! You cunt, fuck this dick!"

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 19 March 2022.

 

The notable part of this lengthy analysis is their assessment that Ukrainian forces have "defeated" the initial Russian campaign of this war.

 

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 19 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war. That campaign aimed to conduct airborne and mechanized operations to seize Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and other major Ukrainian cities to force a change of government in Ukraine. That

 

 

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Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war. That campaign aimed to conduct airborne and mechanized operations to seize Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and other major Ukrainian cities to force a change of government in Ukraine. That campaign has culminated. Russian forces continue to make limited advances in some parts of the theater but are very unlikely to be able to seize their objectives in this way. The doctrinally sound Russian response to this situation would be to end this campaign, accept a possibly lengthy operational pause, develop the plan for a new campaign, build up resources for that new campaign, and launch it when the resources and other conditions are ready. The Russian military has not yet adopted this approach. It is instead continuing to feed small collections of reinforcements into an ongoing effort to keep the current campaign alive. We assess that that effort will fail.

 

The ultimate fall of Mariupol is increasingly unlikely to free up enough Russian combat power to change the outcome of the initial campaign dramatically. Russian forces concentrated considerable combat power around Mariupol drawn from the 8th Combined Arms Army to the east and from the group of Russian forces in Crimea to the west. Had the Russians taken Mariupol quickly or with relatively few losses they would likely have been able to move enough combat power west toward Zaporizhiya and Dnipro to threaten those cities. The protracted siege of Mariupol is seriously weakening Russian forces on that axis, however. The confirmed death of the commander of the Russian 150th Motorized Rifle Division likely indicates the scale of the damage Ukrainian defenders are inflicting on those formations. The block-by-block fighting in Mariupol itself is costing the Russian military time, initiative, and combat power. If and when Mariupol ultimately falls the Russian forces now besieging it may not be strong enough to change the course of the campaign dramatically by attacking to the west.

 

Russian forces in the south appear to be focusing on a drive toward Kryvyi Rih, presumably to isolate and then take Zaporizhiya and Dnipro from the west but are unlikely to secure any of those cities in the coming weeks if at all. Kryvyi Rih is a city of more than 600,000 and heavily fortified according to the head of its military administration. Zaporizhiya and Dnipro are also large. The Russian military has been struggling to take Mariupol, smaller than any of them, since the start of the war with more combat power than it is currently pushing toward Kryvyi Rih. The Russian advance on that axis is thus likely to bog down as all other Russian advances on major cities have done.

 

The Russian military continues to commit small groups of reinforcements to localized fighting rather than concentrating them to launch new large-scale operations. Russia continues to commit units drawn from its naval infantry from all fleets, likely because those units are relatively more combat-ready than rank-and-file Russian regiments and brigades. The naval infantry belonging to the Black Sea Fleet is likely the largest single pool of ready reserve forces the Russian military has not yet committed. Much of that naval infantry has likely been embarked on amphibious landing ships off the Odesa coast since early in the war, presumably ready to land near Odesa as soon as Russian forces from Crimea secured a reliable ground line of communication (GLOC) from Crimea to Odesa. The likelihood that Russian forces from Crimea will establish such a GLOC in the near future is becoming remote, however, and the Russian military has apparently begun using elements of the Black Sea Fleet naval infantry to reinforce efforts to take Mariupol.

 

The culmination of the initial Russian campaign is creating conditions of stalemate throughout most of Ukraine. Russian forces are digging in around the periphery of Kyiv and elsewhere, attempting to consolidate political control over areas they currently occupy, resupplying and attempting to reinforce units in static positions, and generally beginning to set conditions to hold in approximately their current forward positions for an indefinite time. Maxar imagery of Russian forces digging trenches and revetments in Kyiv Oblast over the past several days supports this assessment.[1] Comments by Duma members about forcing Ukraine to surrender by exhaustion in May could reflect a revised Russian approach to ending this conflict on terms favorable to Moscow.

 

Stalemate will likely be very violent and bloody, especially if it protracts. Stalemate is not armistice or ceasefire. It is a condition in war in which each side conducts offensive operations that do not fundamentally alter the situation. Those operations can be very damaging and cause enormous casualties. The World War I battles of the Somme, Verdun, and Passchendaele were all fought in conditions of stalemate and did not break the stalemate. If the war in Ukraine settles into a stalemate condition Russian forces will continue to bomb and bombard Ukrainian cities, devastating them and killing civilians, even as Ukrainian forces impose losses on Russian attackers and conduct counter-attacks of their own. The Russians could hope to break Ukrainians’ will to continue fighting under such circumstances by demonstrating Kyiv’s inability to expel Russian forces or stop their attacks even if the Russians are demonstrably unable to take Ukraine’s cities. Ukraine’s defeat of the initial Russian campaign may therefore set conditions for a devastating protraction of the conflict and a dangerous new period testing the resolve of Ukraine and the West. Continued and expanded Western support to Ukraine will be vital to seeing Ukraine through that new period.

 

Key Takeaways:

• We now assess that the initial Russian campaign to seize Ukraine’s capital and major cities and force regime change has failed;
• Russian forces continue efforts to restore momentum to this culminated campaign, but those efforts will likely also fail;
• Russian troops will continue trying to advance to within effective artillery range of the center of Kyiv, but prospects for their success are unclear;
• The war will likely descend into a phase of bloody stalemate that could last for weeks or months;
• Russia will expand efforts to bombard Ukrainian civilians in order to break Ukrainians’ will to continue fighting (at which the Russians will likely fail);
• The most dangerous current Russian advance is from Kherson north toward Kryvyi Rih in an effort to isolate Zaporizhiya and Dnipro from the west. Russian forces are unlikely to be able to surround or take Kryvyi Rih in the coming days, and may not be able to do so at all without massing much larger forces for the effort than they now have available on that axis;
• The Russians appear to have abandoned plans to attack Odesa at least in the near term.

 

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

 

[Ricofoley]

The stalemate paragraph in that assessment is grim, though.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Just now, Ricofoley said:

The stalemate paragraph in that assessment is grim, though.

 

It absolutely is and if anything such a protracted  stalemate may only increase the probability that Moscow will use "extraordinary means" (i.e. a tactical nuclear weapon) to break it.

[Reputator]

8 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

Can someone translate this for those of us who haven't memorized a military Sears catalog?

 

Is this like intercepting a bullet with a slingshot?

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Just now, Reputator said:

Is this like intercepting a bullet with a slingshot?

 

 

That's a pretty damned good analogy!