Mr.Vic20 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 23 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said: So, if the caucus was run incorrectly, does that invalidate that precinct? I'm sure it should but I'm guessing there will be a smooth over incoming this evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 14 minutes ago, SaysWho? said: Jesus Christ on a crutch, dude, can we wait until the beginning of November 2020 to assess his approval rating? At least talking about a dictatorship can start before a second Trump term instead of February. Riley has always been a super melodramatic poster, but even Trump holding his approval rating through this whole impeachment process is pretty depressing, at least to me. Couple that with the low turnout last night and while I am definitely not ready to declare Trump the 2020 victor (nor the 2024 victor for that matter lol), things aren't looking great. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrbiggsly Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 38 minutes ago, TwinIon said: I've seen a number of reactions that basically amount to "well, at least this will be the end of caucuses," that somehow forget that in 2012 the GOP result wasn't finalized for two weeks. I would be happy to see everyone just go to a normal primary vote, but I would still be shocked if the end result of this whole mess is that Iowan's decide to fix a broken system that also gives them a wholly unique focus every four years. Especially when changing to a primary would setup a confrontation with NH state law that basically requires them to go first. I love that. This whole primary system needs to be demolished Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 National primary day would be bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, Jose said: Riley has always been a super melodramatic poster, but even Trump holding his approval rating through this whole impeachment process is pretty depressing, at least to me. Couple that with the low turnout last night and while I am definitely not ready to declare Trump the 2020 victor (nor the 2024 victor for that matter lol), things aren't looking great. None of that matters. No one should care what his approval rating is right now. His approval rating went down 2 points over much of the impeachment and now went up a couple more points. It's February. His approval ratings haven't changed significantly since he took office. Whether they jump up like Obama's (who had an improving economy, and perhaps the economy not changing significantly will help Trump), plummet like Bush I's, hover around 49ish like Bush II's, or what, wait until November to start resigning yourself to a Trump victory. He's hit "personal highs" before and he's hit lows. The only one that really counts is around election day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 I'm not doing that though! Just saying at this particular moment it's not great. Of course things can and will change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spawn_of_Apathy Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 42 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said: So, if the caucus was run incorrectly, does that invalidate that precinct? It should invalidate Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaysWho? Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, Jose said: I'm not doing that though! Just saying at this particular moment it's not great. Of course things can and will change. There's just no way I'm going to make it till Election Day if any time a good poll number comes out for Trump, Riley's running around like 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commissar SFLUFAN Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legend Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 hours ago, CitizenVectron said: Prescient: The critical difference, IMO, is that software is held to virtually zero regulation standards. Many corporations only care about churning something out to maximize the immediate profit, or make a media splash with a new poorly tested feature, risks be damned. Start regulating and demanding stringent testing, and software will be more robust. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnny Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Bernie has Iowa in the bag. Time to see which state the dems screw him out of next. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 I would be really pissed at the Democratic Party if Bloomberg gets the nom. Almost certainly not happening, but yeah, I'd be pissed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jwheel86 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 14 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: If accurate, Biden and Klobuchar are almost out of money, and Buttigieg is about to run face first into a wall of black and brown opposition. Bloomberg not withstanding this could turn into a Warren vs Sanders race. Crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, johnny said: Bernie has Iowa in the bag. Time to see which state the dems screw him out of next. "Democratic Senate caucus agrees with GOP to remove New Hampshire from the union." 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baconbits Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Pete sure seems confident... https://www.twitter.com/mooncult/status/1224775771991859201 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: Why only post the Emerson poll? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, Jose said: Why only post the Emerson poll? Because it's the one I saw a tweet about? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CitizenVectron Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osxmatt Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, CitizenVectron said: To me, it depends how you define 'bad.' The perceived front-runner finishing fourth or below? Yes, that is bad. But did anyone expect Biden to finish 1 or 2? It's clear he's in it for Super Tuesday, and I think that is when he steps ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said: Because it's the one I saw a tweet about? That's what I figured, which is why I asked! 3 polls were released today and that one is the clear outlier of the bunch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewhyteboar Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, osxmatt said: To me, it depends how you define 'bad.' The perceived front-runner finishing fourth or below? Yes, that is bad. But did anyone expect Biden to finish 1 or 2? It's clear he's in it for Super Tuesday, and I think that is when he steps ahead. Yes, people expected Biden to come in 1st or 2nd. He was 2nd in the RCP polling average. 4th place would be a disaster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarSolo Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Both of Joe Biden’s eyeballs are probably bleeding today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chairslinger Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, thewhyteboar said: What an advanced piece of tech. It can pull double duty on election night to mark your vote, but also plunge into your eye socket after Trump wins to allow you the sweet caress of the void. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarSolo Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Jose said: Yes, people expected Biden to come in 1st or 2nd. He was 2nd in the RCP polling average. 4th place would be a disaster. Especially when you consider Bernie, Warren, and Amy were a little busy at the impeachment trial. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarSolo Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Iowa being the first stop is such a fucking mistake: 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, MarSolo said: Iowa being the first stop is such a fucking mistake: 4 hours ago, Jason said: lol one of the youtube comments: "The Bible also says women should be silent" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chairslinger Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 I haven't been following the coverage that closely, but 4th seems pretty low for Biden. What happened, did he have a gaff where he called ethanol a liar and challenged it to a fistfight? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwinIon Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 538 also had Biden at ~26% of the vote. If he gets less than 15% and isn't in the top four, that's pretty bad. Still, @osxmatt has a point about Super Tuesday. 538 currently gives Biden the lead in SC, Texas, NC, VA, TN, AL, OK, and AK. He's second to Sanders everywhere he's not in first. Still, it's very early. We've seen so many candidates drop out already so I understand why someone might feel like we're well along in this process or that any of these early states could be a knockout punch, but I don't think that's the case for the top 3 or 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarSolo Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, Jason said: Dammit, I remember clearly reading that now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Chairslinger said: I haven't been following the coverage that closely, but 4th seems pretty low for Biden. What happened, did he have a gaff where he called ethanol a liar and challenged it to a fistfight? Caucuses seem to favor candidates who can get excited participants. Biden’s support skews so old, they aren’t getting excited for anything at 6:30 in the evening besides the newest episode of Wheel of Fortune. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chairslinger Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, TwinIon said: 538 also had Biden at ~26% of the vote. If he gets less than 15% and isn't in the top four, that's pretty bad. Still, @osxmatt has a point about Super Tuesday. 538 currently gives Biden the lead in SC, Texas, NC, VA, TN, AL, OK, and AK. He's second to Sanders everywhere he's not in first. Still, it's very early. We've seen so many candidates drop out already so I understand why someone might feel like we're well along in this process or that any of these early states could be a knockout punch, but I don't think that's the case for the top 3 or 4. For someone whose whole case is built on name recognition and electability I think every notch he slides down is horrible for him. This is the exact scenario people were predicting when they said Biden's support could collapse if the early states showed another viable candidate. I always kind of suspected that Joe might have a bit of a reverse Trump effect. Where as Republicans clutched their pearls in public but held their nose and voted for Trump in private I think the opposite is true for Joe. People were saying, "Yeah yeah, Joe. He was with Obama. Sure, i'd vote for him" but at crunch time when the other candidates are running around gladhanding that wins a lot more gameday support than Biden sitting alone in a room somewhere repeating Obama's name over and over again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwinIon Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 The one thing about that video that does ring true is that I've been surprised about how little fuss has been made about Pete being gay. I don't think it should be a big deal, but I also think that if he was the nominee, or even the front runner, I can easily see Trump tweeting about it or Fox News making some tasteless remarks pretty regularly. Him being gay basically left the news cycle by the time people figured out how to say his name, but I doubt it would stay that way if he gets much more traction and became a real threat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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