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~*Official #COVID-19 Thread of Doom*~ Revenge of Omicron Prime


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7 hours ago, thewhyteboar said:

 

 

 

I'm sure there is a (large?) group of American conservatives that believe that could never happen to the US (while also believing the Bible literally) because Americans are God's chosen people, while anyone previously mentioned was not (and only existed to be put in the Bible to teach future Americans).

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57 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

I'm sure there is a (large?) group of American conservatives that believe that could never happen to the US (while also believing the Bible literally) because Americans are God's chosen people, while anyone previously mentioned was not (and only existed to be put in the Bible to teach future Americans).

I've met Christians who believe that God divinely prevented bullets from striking George Washington in battle because it was God's plan to have Washington create America.

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I agree with all of that. In terms of how it relates to Canada, we need to continue with restrictions until we have 70%+ with full vaccination. Unfortunately, almost all provinces are basing their re-opening on first shots. That made sense against the Alpha variant, to a degree, but not against Delta. If there is a silver lining, it's that many of the most vulnerable (75+, etc) will have already received their second shot by now (if not in Feb/Mar), and everyone who wants their second dose will be able to get it by mid-August. But until then, we really shouldn't be opening back up the way we are. Summer will help since many will choose outdoor gatherings...but they won't in the fall/winter, and that's when the people too stupid to get their vaccinations will pay for it, unfortunately.

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1)  I agree we should stop the reopening based on what we know about Delta.

2)  1-dose efficacy on Alpha is currently estimated at ~50%.  The 1-dose strategy may have made sense on the original variant (1-dose estimated at 80% efficacy), not sure it did with Alpha. I still haven't seen a peer-reviewed study that demonstrates that a 1-dose strategy was superior.

3)  Provinces aren't able to maintain a lock-down, because people won't be willing to do it.  Low case numbers lure people into a false sense of security -- until the next wave has already started.  We've already essentially been in full lockdown for 7-months.

4)  "Herd Immunity" estimates I've seen from doctors suggest we need 90%+ with two doses to stop the Delta variant.

5)  Given we've seen 2 new variants cause waves in the past 6 months (alpha and delta), I would be surprised if increasingly more virulent variants don't appear.

 

We moved to Stage 1 in reopening late last week, our outdoor gathering limits are still very limited (~10 people) -- non-essential retail limited to 15% capacity, outdoor sports allowed to practice (no games).  The UK which appears to be having another wave is already in roughly the equivalent of our Stage 3 just delayed what would have essentially been a full reopening.  So it is possible that the current level of reopening won't cause a new wave.

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I think the 1-dose strategy was still a great idea because the efficacy numbers are only a part of the calculation. Obviously preventing 50%-80% of infections is great, but what is even better is reducing severe cases in the remaining 20-50% who do catch it. The 1-dose strategy slowed the spread, but more importantly, it massively reduced the death toll. That is why even when Canada had rising case counts in the third wave, we still had lower death figures. Having said that, we need full vaccination and honestly, I hope governments start using both carrots and  sticks to get it. Make it mandatory for certain activities (like registering for school, leaving Canada, etc).

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Mom’s waiting on her 2nd dose. She had it for last Thursday but because she had AZ as her first shot they pushed her 2nd dose 2 weeks back to reach the 10 week window between doses. THE VERY NEXT DAY the Ontario Gov says that it was ok to move up the 2nd dose at 8 weeks between shots. One more day and my mom would of been fully vaccinated under the new rules

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28 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

My 2nd dose just got pulled ahead for the second time -- 2 weeks ago it was August 16th to July 18th, today from July 18th to June 18th.  Now I'm scheduled for this Friday.  In 2.5 weeks I count as #fullyvaccinated.

 

Nice. I'm going on Thursday to a walk-in clinic (no appointment). I'll line up two hours before it opens...but I'll probably be there for 4-5 hours. Still worth it, especially since it's going to be a nice day (23C).

 

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8 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Nice. I'm going on Thursday to a walk-in clinic (no appointment). I'll line up two hours before it opens...but I'll probably be there for 4-5 hours. Still worth it, especially since it's going to be a nice day (23C).

 

Mine is at a pseudo-clinic that runs a vaccine clinic -- it previously handled flu shots, but during the pandemic is primarily Covid.  I'm guessing there is a surplus of Moderna doses at the moment, which is allowing me to get my 2nd dose much earlier than I should. 

 

Demand for first doses has fallen off a cliff in my PHU (~74% of people over 18 having received first dose) -- and very few kids under 18 being vaccinated (~19% having received first dose).  We were doing ~20,000 first doses a day, and now we're down to ~5,000.  Since the majority of people received Pfizer, that frees up Moderna for those of us who had AZ for our first jab.  Given how many people in their 70's (50-60%) and 80's (~20%) still are on one dose, it doesn't make much sense that I am getting my 2nd dose so early.  But, given that the clinic called me, I will feel no guilt.

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8 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Overall this thread is interesting but this one is for @Joe

 

 


Yep. Up until like April I’d say I had only ever seen 1 or 2 people in a year not wearing their masks perfectly. Harder to think the virus is a conspiracy when people around you are dying in large numbers.

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49 minutes ago, AbsolutSurgen said:

Mine is at a pseudo-clinic that runs a vaccine clinic -- it previously handled flu shots, but during the pandemic is primarily Covid.  I'm guessing there is a surplus of Moderna doses at the moment, which is allowing me to get my 2nd dose much earlier than I should. 

 

Demand for first doses has fallen off a cliff in my PHU (~74% of people over 18 having received first dose) -- and very few kids under 18 being vaccinated (~19% having received first dose).  We were doing ~20,000 first doses a day, and now we're down to ~5,000.  Since the majority of people received Pfizer, that frees up Moderna for those of us who had AZ for our first jab.  Given how many people in their 70's (50-60%) and 80's (~20%) still are on one dose, it doesn't make much sense that I am getting my 2nd dose so early.  But, given that the clinic called me, I will feel no guilt.

 

It's interesting how different the uptake is in different areas. Here is a relevant chart for SK's age uptake:

 

SYMxZoe.jpg

 

So we have great 12-17 first-dose uptake at 50%...but overall, our 18+ is only at 68% (rising by about .2% per day still). So we're ahead of your area on young people getting it...but for some reason have less middle-aged? Overall we're falling behind Canada on first-dose uptake, which is disappointing. We'll definitely hit 70% of 12+ (required to lift mask mandate), but it will take another few weeks.

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gettyimages-1322590538_wide-7acd18aff271
WWW.NPR.ORG

The latest toll from Johns Hopkins University comes nearly four months after the nation crossed the half-million mark for deaths from the coronavirus pandemic.

 

Of course, that's the highest reported death toll. Realistically, it is very likely that many more have died in India (like over 1 million), but they are not able to (or willing to) track that properly.

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Quote

Covid-19 cases have been declining over the past few months in the United States, but there's concern that could change as the pace of vaccinations slows and the Delta variant spreads.

 

Good thing the CDC declared the pandemic is over so everyone can take off their masks! :SARS-CoV-2:

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1 hour ago, Jason said:

 

Good thing the CDC declared the pandemic is over so everyone can take off their masks! :SARS-CoV-2:


Nothing to date has suggested fully vaccinated persons should be alarmed or concerned, and we are rapidly approaching the point at which unvaccinated persons have no good excuse. At this point masks only protect people from themselves. 

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