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~Official thread of house closing and sucking bank dick~


Fizzzzle
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So, I live on the west coast. Everyone already knows the ridiculousness of bay area housing prices, as well as Seattle. I, however, live in Portland  - a lesser known Pacific destination. The rent prices have gone up dramatically over the last 5 years or so. My workplace is in an "up and coming" part of the city where 5-10 story apartment buildings are going up basically every month. The problem? none of them are renting. The buildings are all sitting at like 30-50% occupancy. One of my friends moved into an apartment over there, as the FIRST TENANT, and the building had been there for almost 2 years. The bar closest to my work that I go to almost every night? The property was sold 2 years ago with the intent to demolish the bar, but the people who bought it have already decided that developing the land will lose them money, so they decided to keep the bar there paying rent. At least they'll get something. I live in one of the hottest neighborhoods in town and there's a house 2 blocks away that has been on the market for 6 months now.

 

The market is about to crash.

 

How do you think this will be different from the crash 10 years ago? I feel like the people who were hit most at the time were single home owners who couldn't pay their mortgages. This time, I think the people hit the hardest will be real estate investors. That could really change the dynamic of the whole situation and how the government deals with it.

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Two phrases that stick out to me are ridiculous housing price of the west coast.  Portland a lesser known destination. Those factors could be reasons why those houses aren’t selling and the reason those buildings aren’t renting. I’m in Atlanta and the market here is booming. 

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You're right it's going to crash but it will hit N Cal and the Pacific Northwest the hardest because a lot of the issues you're seeing are self contained to those areas. As long as they keep trying to invest in the same people that seem like young go getter Zucks and Musks and they keep not delivering it's at risk. Someone's gonna want their money back at some point and pull the carpet from under the whole scam. That's not to say there isn't potential or talent, it's that they are picking the wrong people. Because they're idiots trusting other idiots.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/sep/02/big-techs-double-trouble-bipartisan-criticism-may-signal-a-reckoning-ahead

 

There's also the Trump factor. Tech cozied up and like everything he touches he destroys.

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Yeah I'm waiting for the crash to happen so I can buy a new home. Currently rent in SoCal is ridiculous. A 1 bed 1 bath in the Inland Empire is anywhere from $1300 to $1800. Those same apartments were $750-$1200 five years ago. That's a ridiculous increase when you consider that minimum wage has barely gone up in the same amount of time. Now it seems all apartment managers want is for people to have room mates. It's pretty crazy. Something has got to give and I can't wait for the housing market to crash.

 

From what I hear a lot of what's going on in SoCal is a lot of foreign and Chinese investors buying up whole neighborhoods and raising the price. Like what the fuck.

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Umm, this is completely different than the crash 10 years ago when they were handing out mortgages like candy to anyone and everyone who had no business getting one.  I can't speak for Portland, but in the Bay Area, any house in the "prime locations" gets huge amounts of offers usually above asking price, and many of them all cash.  The demand is ridiculous, it certainly is not a bubble here unless tech companies pack up and leave.

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2 minutes ago, Amazatron said:

Umm, this is completely different than the crash 10 years ago when they were handing out mortgages like candy to anyone and everyone who had no business getting one.  I can't speak for Portland, but in the Bay Area, any house in the "prime locations" gets huge amounts of offers usually above asking price, and many of them all cash.  The demand is ridiculous, it certainly is not a bubble here unless tech companies pack up and leave.

A lot of the ones paying cash are investors not home owners. That's why a lot of the homes listed are on the market for a while. It's a different market crash but it's one that is on the horizon. With all these homes that are available but are over price where people can't afford them somethings gonna give.

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Just now, The def star said:

A lot of the ones paying cash are investors not home owners. That's why a lot of the homes listed are on the market for a while. It's a different market crash but it's one that is on the horizon. With all these homes that are available but over price where people can't afford them it's gonna pop.

 

Again, in the Bay Area, houses usually go extremely quick.  Not sure what the situation is like in L.A.

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6 minutes ago, Amazatron said:

 

Again, in the Bay Area, houses usually go extremely quick.  Not sure what the situation is like in L.A.

Situation is the same as @Fizzzzle described. Plenty homes on the market that aren't being bought because of ridiculous prices. So fewer affordable homes on the market.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/24/southern-california-home-sales-crash-a-warning-sign-to-the-nation.html

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Long Island currently has a housing shortage. So prices are waaaay up. I dont think any sort of "Crash" will affect this region..but the wife and I have been thinking about selling the house, and then renting for a while and see if the prices drop and then buy in a more desirable neighborhood. 

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In San Diego we have problematically low vacancy rates leading to dramatically overpriced rentals. Home prices are inflated as well, but not quite as badly as rental rates. New home sales might be down, but a vacancy rate of less than 2% doesn't exactly sound like a glut of availability. I feel like if we suffer any kind of "crash," it isn't likely to be a sector wide thing, but likely more of a reversal of high end housing prices. I feel like it's more probably a market correction than anything like the previous crash.

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I bought a house in NJ where prices have been relatively recession proof so far. During the mortgage crisis, the prices took a very minor hit so I’m not worried.

 

I am just happy that we found a home owner who was in massive debt and wanted to sell the house on his own so we got a really good deal in an area where cash offers were asking price plus 10-20%. 

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I believe that I am charging way too little in rent due to the fact that each time I've had to find tenants nobody has blinked at the monthly cost I chose, when I myself (who hasn't rented since I was like 19) thought it was a bit high.  I don't plan on selling any of my houses in the near future so I'm fine with the current situation.

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16 hours ago, atom631 said:

Long Island currently has a housing shortage. So prices are waaaay up. I dont think any sort of "Crash" will affect this region..but the wife and I have been thinking about selling the house, and then renting for a while and see if the prices drop and then buy in a more desirable neighborhood. 

I think the west coast is different in that regard. Long Island has always been densely populated. In the west coast, you have areas that were previously sparsely populated or industrial areas turned into high-density areas. The thing is, I think (at least in Portland and Vancouver BC), the supply has started to outstrip the demand. You have all these buildings going up that can fit thousands of people, but they only want people who make 75k+/year. The thing is - there aren't that many of those people. Again, the example I used of the people who bought the bar I go to all the time - they planned on doing the same thing that everyone else around them did, which is turn the property into a 6 story apartment/condo complex. Only now, none of those buildings are making money. They're all sinking. They're all trying to corner a market that doesn't exist, or at least could not possibly fit the demand.

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  • 3 years later...

I’m my area it won’t crash, but it will stabilise. Currently my house (online valuation) is about £75,000 more than when I paid for it, so I could see that staying the same for a while. That said, I’m lucky that I live in an overall desirable location in a house we’ve improved.

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4 hours ago, SuperSpreader said:

The Dallas market is insane, we paid 50% more than this house was 2 years ago and it continues to climb. 

20% increase in population in the Dallas-Ft. Worth CSA over the last decade. Something tells me there hasn't been a 20% increase in available housing, and I'm sure the closer you get to the city the worse it gets.

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19 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

The 5 acres and house across the street from me sold for $250k in 2017, and just went on the market for $465k and will probably sell for $485k. 

Holy shit!  Time to move to Texas!  The house down the street from me on a 3900sqft lot just sold for $750k.
 

3yrs ago $425k

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Fizzzzle said:

The house across the street from my dad's just sold for over a million and is barely over 2000sqft. The lot might be 4000 in total:lol:

PNW is fucking crazy right now.  A lot of places are seeing a large increase in property values, but nothing like the PNW. 

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