I want a larger scale topic on the Ukraine war

[Fizzzzle]

Like, this is where to talk about macro level things, not post every time there's a missile strike, as that gets hard to follow. 

 

I'm curious how the CCP is following this war. I've been trying to find takes on it. The main thing that scares me is that China looks at this war as a test of what would happen if they invaded Taiwan. If there's anything that would start WW3, it's probably the Chinese invasion of Taiwan. And what's the famous quote - I don't know with which weapons WW3 will be fought, but WW4 will be fought with sticks and stones. Or something.

 

[Chris-]

Extremely anecdotal, but I have a friend from Taiwan and he says that younger Taiwanese people simply do not care about the distinction from the mainland, and it is likely that Taiwan will be more or less reabsorbed naturally once that generation comes of age. Assuming that is the case, I'd think this would show China they're better off waiting out the clock than suffering a response that immediately kneecaps their claim to global power.

[CayceG]

I won't be contributing much in this thread for now (or really much in the future, depending). I just don't know where things are headed or where they'll wind up. I think it might be folly to link what's happening here with unrelated things. I just don't know. 

[Fizzzzle]

Just now, CayceG said:

I won't be contributing much in this thread for now (or really much in the future, depending). I just don't know where things are headed or where they'll wind up. I think it might be folly to link what's happening here with unrelated things. I just don't know. 

I don't either! That's why I'm more interested in a slower paced discussion that's based on macro level politics rather than on-the-ground minute-by-minute coverage

[Bloodporne]

On a larger scale, I hope a Crimean assassin infiltrates Putin's personal home and poisons him slowly while unleashing a vicious pack of German Shepherd that fuck his face for days straight. 

[Fizzzzle]

30 minutes ago, Chris- said:

Extremely anecdotal, but I have a friend from Taiwan and he says that younger Taiwanese people simply do not care about the distinction from the mainland, and it is likely that Taiwan will be more or less reabsorbed naturally once that generation comes of age. Assuming that is the case, I'd think this would show China they're better off waiting out the clock than suffering a response that immediately kneecaps their claim to global power.

I wonder about the parallels to Hong Kong. Granted they are absolutely not a 1:1 comparison and Hong Kong did not voluntarily join the CCP. Taiwan has a long, complicated and corrupt history itself, but I wonder if the perception of uniting with China would become increasingly incendiary the closer it gets to actually happening. And it seems like Taiwan is the Poland of our next world war. Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the US have pretty much all guaranteed that Taiwan is the breaking point for Chinese expansion.

 

That's what worries me more than Ukraine itself. Obviously my heart breaks for everyone in Ukraine, but I can't help but think that Putin knew all the consequences of what would happen if he invaded Ukraine and did it anyway. If the CCP decides to do that with Taiwan, then we're all fucked. I don't see a scenario of China invading Taiwan that doesn't result in nuclear war.

[SimpleG]

2 hours ago, Bloodporne said:

On a larger scale, I hope a Crimean assassin infiltrates Putin's personal home and poisons him slowly while unleashing a vicious pack of German Shepherd that fuck his face for days straight. 

[stepee]

well u can’t have one

[brucoe]

I was at work today and some young kid from IT came in and just seemed to really want to talk politics to me today about the whole Ukrainian thing. I teach communications at the college, but most people on the boards here know I also hold a doctorate in political science and have an extensive background in the military. Well, I spent about two hours listen to this guy TELL me exactly how this whole scenario was going to end up based on his "extensive" knowledge of politics and history, and not once did I interject with "no, the world doesn't work that way". Not once. One of my colleagues was on the other side of the room cracking up, because she knew what was definitely on my mind, but I didn't let up once.

 

This is the thing I fear. We have a LOT of complete morons in our society today who are convinced that having watched two episodes of Band of Brothers that they are somehow experts in strategic and tactical warfare (not to mention foreign policy and advanced psychology).

 

That conversation ended after he got into a whole diatribe about how I am obviously young enough to get drafted and because he's got a degree in IT, he'll be in a much better position than me should we both get called up at the same time. I figured it wasn't the time to get into the whole concept of conscription and the process of how the military reactivates field grade officers.

[Jwheel86]

If Chinese make a move on Taiwan the entire western Pacific becomes a death trap for US Carrier Strike Groups. Their escorts can't carry enough missiles to shoot down their incoming missiles of various flavors. US Air Base runways will cratered by conventional ballistic missiles if used against China. This assumes we can even mobilize a large enough force and sail it across the entire Pacific before Taiwan falls. The only advantage we've got are submarines. Taiwan is on its own. 

 

[Fizzzzle]

24 minutes ago, Jwheel86 said:

If Chinese make a move on Taiwan the entire western Pacific becomes a death trap for US Carrier Strike Groups. Their escorts can't carry enough missiles to shoot down their incoming missiles of various flavors. US Air Base runways will cratered by conventional ballistic missiles if used against China. This assumes we can even mobilize a large enough force and sail it across the entire Pacific before Taiwan falls. The only advantage we've got are submarines. Taiwan is on its own. 

 

That ignores the fact that the Japanese 'defensive' navy would not be defensive anymore if China invaded Taiwan. Japan and Korea would not fuck around in such an event

[Jwheel86]

4 minutes ago, Fizzzzle said:

That ignores the fact that the Japanese 'defensive' navy would not be defensive anymore if China invaded Taiwan. Japan and Korea would not fuck around in such an event

 

Their ships are even more vulnerable, they carry fewer defensive missiles and you need a port to reload VLS. 

[PaladinSolo]

8 hours ago, Jwheel86 said:

If Chinese make a move on Taiwan the entire western Pacific becomes a death trap for US Carrier Strike Groups. Their escorts can't carry enough missiles to shoot down their incoming missiles of various flavors. US Air Base runways will cratered by conventional ballistic missiles if used against China. This assumes we can even mobilize a large enough force and sail it across the entire Pacific before Taiwan falls. The only advantage we've got are submarines. Taiwan is on its own. 

 

Those subs are all the US needs, an attack on this scale would be the end of China, they're only hope of taking Taiwan is to only impact Taiwan.

[Air_Delivery]

Just to comment on the attack on Ukraine. In a way this is the boomerist of boomer moves. I think Putin even being the head of state, ex KGB with all the information in the world at his fingertips doesn't understand how the world works today. World popular opinion has united against Russia in a way that would not have been possible even 20 years ago because of how information travels today and how connected the world is. Even without Biden and our US intelligence blowing up their flimsiest of pretexts for the war, there was no way to keep a lid on what is happening on the ground. Even their own solders can know from a macro level how the world views them and watch their own footage on the internet.

 

As an Xennial I consider myself a bit of an observer as I've watched the rise of the internet going from a toy nerds played with to an all consuming force. Its facinating to me how its changed almost the consciousness of humanity.

 

David Bowie was right man. The internet is an alien lifeform.

 

 

[SuperSpreader]

Wow Bowie is a genius

[PaladinSolo]

 

[Uaarkson]

Anyone wanna take bets on the likelihood of nuclear conflict within the next 5-10 years?

[CitizenVectron]

5 minutes ago, Uaarkson said:

Anyone wanna take bets on the likelihood of nuclear conflict within the next 5-10 years?

 

5%

[PaladinSolo]

I'm not sure China is seeing this play out and thinking "Ya know, we should try this with Taiwan!"  lol.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

3 hours ago, PaladinSolo said:

I'm not sure China is seeing this play out and thinking "Ya know, we should try this with Taiwan!"  lol.

“Surely they wouldn’t do that to us, we make all of their shit”

[SuperSpreader]

26 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

“Surely they wouldn’t do that to us, we make all of their shit”

 

We can force it to be cheaper. 

[unogueen]

China is already sitting on a golden goose. Whether Russia 'wins' or not, their relationship becomes increasingly lopsided towards China. Taiwan is a terrible place for a flashpoint since so much integral international infrastructure is there. The worst case scenario is Japan's saber rattling becoming increasingly erratic. Korea is tired as shit of being the natural path for China, Russia, and Japan for millennia, not like this past century has been kind in the least.

 

Edit: What'd be great is if the perpetually online would shut their trap about machinations of lands that do not touch them. The average bum is dizzy with aches and stress from the everyday grind and barely comprehends the politics of their own nation, let alone lend to the fustrum of foreign nightmares.