Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (20 Apr 2024) - US House passes military aid bill for Ukraine

[CayceG]

I kinda hope Ze told the Russians that he'd give them the Azov fighters if they let the Marines go.

[CitizenVectron]

Worth watching:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Update from Ukraine:

 

-53 heavily wounded Azovstal' defenders sent to Novoazovsk hospital
-another 211 to Olenivka "via humanitarian corridor"
-to be exchanged for Russian PoWs.
-negotiations relating to the remaining defenders ongoing.

 

So some defenders remain, with some allowed to leave in exchange for prisoners held in Ukraine.

[CitizenVectron]

 

 

I wonder if he's the one that insisted they try crossing the Donets river 8 times in a row.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 16 May 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 16 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Russian forces conducted limited and largely unsuccessful ground offensives along the front line in Ukraine on May 16. The Russian grouping around Kharkiv City is notably trying to hold the border and prevent Ukrainian troops from advancing further

 

 

Quote

 

Russian forces conducted limited and largely unsuccessful ground offensives along the front line in Ukraine on May 16. The Russian grouping around Kharkiv City is notably trying to hold the border and prevent Ukrainian troops from advancing further north. This activity is different from previous Russian withdrawals from around Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy earlier in the war when the Russians pulled completely back to Russian territory. Russian troops may seek to retain positions in Ukraine and continue artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions in order to prevent Ukrainian forces from getting into tube or rocket-artillery range of the outskirts of Belgorod, a major city in Russia and a key hub of the Russian military effort. The Russians might alternatively hope to conduct a counter-counter-offensive to push back south toward Kharkiv, although such an effort is highly unlikely to succeed.

 

Russian military bloggers continued to post analysis that is skeptical of Russian efforts and increasingly in-line with Western assessments of Russian military failures in Ukraine. One such blogger, Igor Strelkov, claimed that the Russian offensive to take Donbas has ultimately failed and that “not a single large settlement “has been liberated.[1] Strelkov even noted that the capture of Rubizhne is relatively insignificant because it happened before the new offensive in Donbas had begun. Strelkov stated that Russian forces are unlikely to liberate Donbas by the summer and that Ukrainian troops will hold their positions around Donetsk City. Strelkov notably claimed that Russian failures thus far have not surprised him because the intent of Russian command has been so evident throughout the operation that Ukrainian troops are aware of exactly how to best respond and warns that Russian troops are fighting to the point of exhaustion under “rules proposed by the enemy.” The continued disenchantment of pro-Russian milbloggers with the Russian war effort may fuel dissatisfaction in Russia itself, especially if Moscow continues to press recruitment and conscription efforts that send poorly-trained cannon-fodder to the front lines.

 

Over 260 Mariupol defenders evacuated from the Azovstal Steel Plant to Russian occupied settlements in Donetsk Oblast on May 16.[2] Ukrainian and Russian authorities negotiated evacuation for wounded Ukrainian servicemen via humanitarian corridors. Ukrainian officials previously called for the evacuation of 60 medics and critically wounded servicemen on May 13.[3] The Kremlin may extend humanitarian corridors for remaining Ukrainian defenders in an effort to fully control Mariupol.

 

Frictions between Russian occupation administrations and pro-Russian collaborators is growing in occupied areas of Ukraine. The Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration reported that Russian forces are having serious conflicts with collaborators due to interpersonal power conflicts.[4] A well-known collaborator in Zaporizhia accused the Russian-installed governor of the area of stealing his 10,000 ruble compensation. Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryshchenko additionally claimed that relatives of those mobilized into the forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) are holding a mass protest against mobilization in Donetsk City. While ISW cannot independently verify these claims, such discontent amongst occupation elements suggests a general lack of planning by Russian authorities in occupied areas, now compounded by increasingly evident Russian losses.

 

Key Takeaways

• Russian and Ukrainian authorities negotiated the evacuation of 264 wounded Ukrainian servicemen from the Azovstal Steel Plant on May 16.
• Ukrainian forces reached the Russian border north of Kharkiv City.
• Russian forces continued unsuccessful ground operations in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and did not make any confirmed advances on May 16.
• Russian forces continued to fortify their positions in Zaporizhia Oblast.

 

 

 

[69los]

3 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

I wonder if he's the one that insisted they try crossing the Donets river 8 times in a row.

 

[Jason]

10 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

 

[Air_Delivery]

2 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

Now that would be quite the accompishment for Putin. Doing what was once thought impossible. 

[silentbob]

5 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

Worth watching:

 

 

That was probably one of the bravest things I have seen someone say on that news propaganda show yet. He doesn’t mince words on how bad they’re doing and the the true fighting spirit/weapon power the Ukrainian forces have. He pretty much is saying RETREAT and cut your losses in some ways, but knows that won’t happen.

[CitizenVectron]

 

Russians are drawn to that airport like moths to a flame...and with the same consistent result.

[Jason]

1 minute ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Russians are drawn to that airport like moths to a flame...and with the same consistent result.

 

Maybe Vladdy got his first backseat handy there. 

[5timechamp]

12 hours ago, silentbob said:

That was probably one of the bravest things I have seen someone say on that news propaganda show yet. He doesn’t mince words on how bad they’re doing and the the true fighting spirit/weapon power the Ukrainian forces have. He pretty much is saying RETREAT and cut your losses in some ways, but knows that won’t happen.

 

That lady was trying to spin his words to guide him to speak ill of the Ukrainians.. he wasnt having it.

 

hard to judge this on its own, more curious to see how the majority of Russians view this conflict

[Jason]

 

[mclumber1]

Is this the first time that an American made howitzer has killed Russians?

[Mr.Vic20]

1 minute ago, mclumber1 said:

Is this the first time that an American made howitzer has killed Russians?

Given all the proxy wars in the middle east, I doubt it. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

9 minutes ago, mclumber1 said:

Is this the first time that an American made howitzer has killed Russians?

 

There is a high probability that US artillery fire killed Russian Wagner Group mercs in Syria during this engagement:

 

How a 4-Hour Battle Between Russian Mercenaries and U.S. Commandos Unfolded in Syria - The New York Times

WWW.NYTIMES.COM

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Interviews and newly obtained documents provide the Pentagon’s first public on-the-ground accounting of one of the bloodiest battles the military has faced in Syria since deploying to fight ISIS.

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

After allowing a few hundred Mariupol defenders (including injured) to surrender in order to be exchanged for Russian prisoners, Russia has apparently reneged on the deal, and is saying that the Ukrainians must stand trial for terrorism.

 

If this is true, then I think it's the final straw for Ukraine. I can't see them now allowing any further negotiations of any kind. I wouldn't be surprised if there is an unspoken understanding moving forward to not even allow Russians to surrender.

[silentbob]

41 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

After allowing a few hundred Mariupol defenders (including injured) to surrender in order to be exchanged for Russian prisoners, Russia has apparently reneged on the deal, and is saying that the Ukrainians must stand trial for terrorism.

 

If this is true, then I think it's the final straw for Ukraine. I can't see them now allowing any further negotiations of any kind. I wouldn't be surprised if there is an unspoken understanding moving forward to not even allow Russians to surrender.

Gonna turn into that scene in Band of Brothers real soon. The scene where they come across the American fighting for Germany, give him/company a cigarette and all shot to death right afterwards.

[CitizenVectron]

 

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 17 May 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 17 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Mariupol defenders trapped in the Azovstal Steel Plant likely surrendered after Ukrainian officials negotiated evacuation measures with the Kremlin. Russian forces began evacuating wounded Ukrainian forces to Russian-occupied settlements in Donetsk

 

 

Quote

 

Mariupol defenders trapped in the Azovstal Steel Plant likely surrendered after Ukrainian officials negotiated evacuation measures with the Kremlin. Russian forces began evacuating wounded Ukrainian forces to Russian-occupied settlements in Donetsk Oblast on May 16 after the Russian Defense Ministry proposed the agreement earlier in the day. Ukrainian officials said that they will seek to return the Mariupol defenders to Ukraine in a prisoner exchange and continue to undertake appropriate measures to rescue all Ukrainian servicemen from Azovstal.

 

The Kremlin might have agreed to the conditional surrender of the Azovstal defenders to accelerate Russia’s ability to declare Mariupol fully under its control. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that the Russian Defense Ministry’s Department of Information and Mass Communications is hastily preparing a press tour of foreign journalists through occupied territories of Ukraine between May 18 and May 21.[1] The Kremlin also could have agreed to such a deal to secure a victory in order to deflect criticism on social media of the failed Russian Siverskyi Donets River crossings and the overall slow pace of the invasion.

 

The Kremlin might refuse to exchange the Mariupol defenders. Some Russian State Duma members are petitioning to pass laws that would prohibit prisoner exchanges for individuals accused of “Nazism.”[2] Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin claimed that the Mariupol defenders must be charged with war crimes and cannot be exchanged for Russian prisoners of war.[3] The Kremlin may ignore the Russian State Duma’s concerns or use them to sabotage negotiations with Ukraine.

 

The surrender agreement generated some outrage and confusion on pro-Russian social media, rather than the celebration of the full capitulation of Mariupol that the Kremlin likely expected—possibly undermining Russian information operations. Some Russian Telegram channels ridiculed the Russian Defense Ministry for negotiating with Ukrainian “terrorists” and “Nazis.”[4] Some bloggers criticized the Donetsk People’s Republic for organizing the evacuation proceedings and blamed negotiating authorities for creating conditions for Ukrainian martyrdom.[5] Several Russian bloggers also called for the imprisonment or murder of surrendered Ukrainian servicemen.[6] Russian audiences are likely dissatisfied with the surrender agreement because they expected Russian forces to destroy Ukrainian defenders at Azovstal. The Kremlin has created large amounts of propaganda that portrayed successful Russian assaults on Azovstal without clearly setting conditions for surrender negotiations. Some Russians may find it difficult to reconcile the triumphant messaging with the abrupt negotiations leading to a negotiated surrender.

 

Russian forces have intensified artillery fire on Ukrainian border settlements in Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts over the past few weeks. The Ukrainian Northern Operational Command reported that Russian forces shelled the border between Sumy Oblast and Russia over 70 times on May 17.[7] Sumy Oblast Administration Head Dmytro Zhyvytskyi said that Russian saboteurs unsuccessfully attempted to break through the Ukrainian border on May 17.[8] 

 

Key Takeaways

• The Ukrainian military command ordered the remaining defenders of Azovstal to surrender, likely conditionally, in hopes of returning them to Ukraine as part of yet-to-be-negotiated prisoner exchanges.
• The announcement of the likely conditional surrender generated outrage in the Russian information space and demands in the Russian Duma for laws prohibiting exchanging the surrendered defenders of Azovstal.
• Russian forces continued to make limited advances in Donbas, primarily focused on setting conditions for the Battle of Severodonetsk.

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Russian soldier pleads guilty in first war crimes trial of Ukraine conflict

WWW.BBC.COM

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The soldier was accused of killing an unarmed civilian in the first war crimes trial of the conflict.

 

Quote

 

A Russian soldier on trial for war crimes in Ukraine has pleaded guilty to killing an unarmed civilian.

 

Vadim Shishimarin, 21, is accused of gunning down a 62-year-old man in the days after the invasion began. He could face life in prison.

 

Prosecutors say more trials are to come, after identifying other potential war crimes committed by Russian soldiers.

 

Moscow has denied its troops have targeted civilians.

 

The trial is the first case of its kind since Russia's invasion in February.

 

It took place in Kyiv, Ukraine, with an interpreter translating the proceedings into Russian for the defendant.

 

He is accused of killing the civilian, who was allegedly on a bicycle, near the village of Chupakhivka in the eastern Sumy region on 28 February, four days into Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

This is a completely understandable development as Russia has effectively moved its entire force into the Donbas and the supply lines to Russia are much shorter:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

34 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

This is a completely understandable development as Russia has effectively moved its entire force into the Donbas and the supply lines to Russia are much shorter:

 

 

 

Yeah, that includes apparently taking out a few M777s. Hopefully Russia doesn't achieve a breakthrough.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

11 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Yeah, that includes apparently taking out a few M777s. Hopefully Russia doesn't achieve a breakthrough.

 

The Russia MoD video of this event:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

6 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

The Russia MoD video of this event:

 

 

 

Yikes. There are a few comments online saying that the units are likely relatively unscathed, and hopefully that is the case.

 

As someone has pointed out, both armies have found good uses for drones...and both lack the ability to stop drones. I imagine the US is watching this war with intense interest, and realizes that while drone warfare is great, the need for anti-drone (and infantry carried) tech is paramount. Especially since smaller nations can more easily afford drones than fighter jets, so it's something the US conceivably will find themselves facing.

[CitizenVectron]

Canada has officially banned Russia Today from the country, and Russia has responded in kind:

 

 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

So it won’t be happening

[Jason]

 

[skillzdadirecta]

42 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

[Ricofoley]

That little "heh" afterwards contains multitudes

[Jason]

48 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

 

[GeneticBlueprint]

3 hours ago, Jason said:

 

 

It's working gotta say

[skillzdadirecta]

2 hours ago, Ricofoley said:

That little "heh" afterwards contains multitudes

I thought the same thing.