Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (03 May 2024) - Drones now kill more soldiers than artillery or bullets

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 12 June 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 12 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Russian forces continue to struggle with generating additional combat-capable units. The UK Ministry of Defense reported on June 12 that Russian forces have been trying to produce more combat units by preparing to deploy third battalion tactical groups

 

 

 

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Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Russian forces continue to struggle with generating additional combat-capable units. The UK Ministry of Defense reported on June 12 that Russian forces have been trying to produce more combat units by preparing to deploy third battalion tactical groups (BTGs) from some units over the last few weeks.[1] The UK MoD noted that Russian brigades and regiments normally can generate two BTGs, but doing so leaves the parent units largely hollow shells. The UK MOD concluded that these third BTGs will likely be understaffed and rely on recruits and mobilized reservists. Their deployment will likely adversely impact the capacity of their parent units to regenerate their combat power for quite some time. BTGs generated in this fashion will not have the combat power of regular BTGs. It will be important not to overestimate Russian reserves produced in this way by counting these third BTGs as if they were normal BTGs.

 

Pro-Russian sources are continuing to spread disinformation to sow anxiety and resentment among the Ukrainian population. Russian Telegram channels reportedly began spreading a fake mobilization order on June 12 that they falsely attributed to the Ukrainian General Staff. The fake order called for the mobilization of all eligible Ukrainian women to report for duty by “June 31” (sic).

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces continued ground assaults in Severodonetsk and blew up bridges that connect Severodonetsk to Lysychansk across the Siverskyi Donets River in a likely attempt to cut Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) that run from Bakhmut to Lysychansk and Severodonetsk.
• Russian forces made incremental gains to the southeast of Izyum and will likely continue attempts to advance on Slovyansk from the northwest.
• Russian forces continued efforts to push Ukrainian troops back from contested frontlines northeast of Kharkiv City.
• Russian forces focused on maintaining defensive lines along the Southern Axis.

 

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Per the BBC:

 

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All bridges to Severodonetsk destroyed - regional governor

 

All three bridges to the embattled city of Severodonetsk have been destroyed, says regional governor Serhiy Haidai.

 

In an update, he says although Russian troops have not completely captured the city - which is at the centre of the fighting between Russian and Ukrainian troops - all bridges leading to  the regional centre have now been destroyed, making the evacuation of residents and the transportation of goods impossible.

 

Residents who remain in the city are surviving under extremely difficult conditions, he adds, with the city under heavy fire.

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Damn.

[Jason]

1 hour ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

Per the BBC:

 

 

 

The city's an island?

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

11 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

The city's an island?

 

No, but the bridges provided escape routes across the Siverskyi Donets River to the Ukrainian-controlled territory on the west bank of the river whereas escape routes on the eastern side lead to Russian-controlled territory.

 

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The destruction by Russian forces of the remaining two bridges over the Siverskyi Donets River over the last two days leaves stranded civilians with no escape west to the neighbouring city of Lysychansk, which is also being shelled but remains in Ukrainian hands.

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 13 June 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 13 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Kremlin-sponsored outlet Izvestia published and quickly removed an appeal by the First Deputy Head of the Russian Presidential Administration Sergey Kirelenko for Russia to rebuild the Donbas on June 12 and blamed hackers for what they (likely falsely)

 

 

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Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

Kremlin-sponsored outlet Izvestia published and quickly removed an appeal by the First Deputy Head of the Russian Presidential Administration Sergey Kirelenko for Russia to rebuild the Donbas on June 12 and blamed hackers for what they (likely falsely) claimed was a “fake publication.” Izvestia likely intended to save the article for a later date to set informational conditions for Russian annexation of Donbas. Kirelenko’s appeal stated that Russia will restore the Donbas regardless of high costs or if doing so lowers the standard of living in Russia.[1] Izvestia blamed unknown hackers for publishing a “fake article,” but it is possible that hackers instead released an article Izvestia had prepared to publish at a later date. The Kremlin previously published and removed an article prematurely celebrating a Russian victory over Ukraine in late February and discussing the capture of Ukraine in past tense in anticipation of Ukraine’s capitulation during the first Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in Belarus.[2] Unnamed Kremlin officials previously identified Kirelenko as the future head of a new Russian federal district, which would encompass Donbas, and occupied settlements in Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts.[3]

 

Russia continues to deploy insufficiently prepared volunteer and reserve forces to reinforce its ongoing operations. Kremlin-sponsored outlet Izvestia released footage showing Russian artillery reservists undergoing training with old D-20 howitzers reportedly within 10 days of their deployment to Ukraine.[4] The reservists focused on learning how to operate hand-held weapons, despite being reportedly only days away from deploying. Social media footage also showed Russian forces transporting Russian volunteer and reserve units with T-80BV tanks (a variant produced in 1985, as opposed to the modernized T-80 BVM operated by the 1st Guards Tank Army) and BMP-1 armored personnel carriers (which have largely been phased out in favor of the BMP-2) to Belgorod Oblast on June 9.[5] Additional social media footage showed Russian forces transporting T-80BV tanks removed from storage in Moscow Oblast on June 9.[6]

 

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces pushed Ukrainian defenders from the center of Severodonetsk and reportedly destroyed the remaining bridge from Severodonetsk to Lysychansk on June 13, but Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces are not encircled in the city.
• Russian forces carried out unsuccessful ground assaults in an attempt to sever Ukrainian ground lines of communications (GLOCs) near Popasna and Bakhmut.
• Russian forces launched unsuccessful offensive operations southeast of Izyum and north of Slovyansk, and are likely setting conditions for an assault on Siversk and northwestern Ukrainian GLOCs to Lysychansk.
• Russian forces are likely conducting a limited offensive directly northeast of Kharkiv City in a likely attempt to push Ukrainian forces out of artillery range of Russian rear areas and secured some successes.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces are engaging in ongoing fighting for Davydiv Brid in northwestern Kherson Oblast.
• Russian occupation authorities likely staged terrorist activity in Melitopol and Berdyansk for Russia Day on June 12.

 

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

A ResetERA poster who lived in Kherson has made it to Tblisi.  This is his story:

 

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I found a small bus which could take me to Crimea and arrange a trip to Tbilisi from there.
Moving through the occupied south is easy, there are numerous Russian checkpoints, some of them briefly stop the cars and look inside, at one checkpoint they lined up all men and checked our documents. All Russian soldiers I’ve seen were polite and friendly. (here and in general)
The Crimean border is the most difficult part. Apart from the usual procedures they gather young men and sometimes women for questioning, during which they check the phones and laptops, ask a bunch of personal questions, look for tattoos.
The route through Russia was uneventful, was about 1200 km long. Once or twice Russian patrols checked our documents but didn’t react when they saw we were Ukrainians.
On the Russian side of the Georgian border I risked another questioning, but the guard was a chatty woman who only asked if I “participated in the special operation”, and if I was already questioned. And she let me go.
The trip took two days and wasn’t as bad as I expected.
I left a bunch of stuff, among other things a new gaming pc which I regret not being able to sell, and a ps5. My sister has a big tv and Rift Apart looks amazing on it.

 

[Jason]

Russia invents its own G8, with blackjack, and hoookers.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

 

[CitizenVectron]

Pope Francis again suggests NATO may have provoked Russian war in Ukraine

WWW.UPI.COM

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Pope Francis on Tuesday again denounced Russia's bloody war in Ukraine -- and again suggested that perhaps Moscow was baited into invading the former Soviet republic.

 

lol get fucked, Pope

 

[CitizenVectron]

We often see the frontline in Ukraine depicted as such:

 

 

Stretched out in other places, this is the length of the front:

 

 

or:

 

[Anathema-]

11 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

Pope Francis again suggests NATO may have provoked Russian war in Ukraine

WWW.UPI.COM

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Pope Francis on Tuesday again denounced Russia's bloody war in Ukraine -- and again suggested that perhaps Moscow was baited into invading the former Soviet republic.

 

lol get fucked, Pope

 

 

3rd worst pope in my lifetime smh

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 14 June 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 14 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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The Belarusian Armed Forces began a command-staff exercise focused on testing command and control capabilities on June 14. However, Belarus remains unlikely to join the war in Ukraine on behalf of Russia. Head of Logistics for the Belarusian Armed Forces

 

 

 

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Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

The Belarusian Armed Forces began a command-staff exercise focused on testing command and control capabilities on June 14. However, Belarus remains unlikely to join the war in Ukraine on behalf of Russia. Head of Logistics for the Belarusian Armed Forces Major General Andrei Burdyko announced that the exercise will involve military authorities, unspecified military units, and logistics organizations and is intended to improve the coherency of command-and-control and logistics support to increase the overall level of training and practical skills of personnel in a “dynamically changing environment.”[1] Despite the launch of this exercise, Belarus remains unlikely to join the war in Ukraine due to the threat of domestic unrest that President Alexander Lukashenko faces if he involves already-limited Belarusian military assets in combat.[2] Any Belarusian entrance into the war would also likely provoke further crippling sanctions on Belarus. Any unsupported Belarusian attack against northern Ukraine would likely be highly ineffective, and the quality of Belarusian troops remains low. ISW will continue to monitor Belarusian movements but does not forecast a Belarusian entrance into the war at this time.

 

Russian authorities may be accelerating plans to annex occupied areas of Ukraine and are arranging political and administrative contingencies for control of annexed territories. Russian military correspondent Sasha Kots posted an image of a map that was displayed at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum depicting a proposed scheme for the “administrative-territorial” division of Ukraine following the war on a three-to-five-year transition scale.[3] The proposed scheme divides Ukrainian oblasts into Russian “territorial districts" and suggests the manner in which Russian authorities hope to incorporate Ukrainian territory directly into Russia. Advisor to the Mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryushchenko additionally outlined a series of indicators that he claimed suggest that Russian authorities are planning to annex occupied Donetsk Oblast as soon as September 1, 2022.[4] Andryushchenko stated that the leadership of occupied Donetsk has entirely passed from authorities of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) to Russian officials and that Russian educational authorities are already referring to Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson as regions of Russia. Andryushchenko additionally stated that the financial and legal systems in occupied Donetsk have already transitioned to Russian systems. Despite the apparent lack of a Kremlin-backed mandate concerning the condition of occupied areas, Russian authorities are likely pushing to expedite a comprehensive annexation process in order to consolidate control over Ukrainian territories and integrate them into Russia’s political and economic environment. However, the Kremlin retains several options in occupied Ukrainian territory and is not bound to any single annexation plan.

 

The Russian military leadership continues to expand its pool of eligible recruits by manipulating service requirements. Russian milblogger Yuri Kotyenok suggested that Russian authorities are preparing to increase the age limit for military service from 40 to 49 and to drop the existing requirement for past military service to serve in tank and motorized infantry units.[5] If true, the shift demonstrates the Kremlin's increasing desperation for recruits to fill frontline units, regardless of their poor skills. Kotyenok echoed calls made by other milbloggers to reduce the health requirements for those serving in rear and support roles.[6] Kotyenok additionally noted that while Russian recruits must have clean criminal records to serve, private military companies such as the Wagner Group will allow those with “mild misdemeanors” into service and that many of these low-level offenders have been mobilized into combat with Wagner in Donetsk and Luhansk. The Russian military leadership will likely continue efforts to expand the pool of eligible recruits, even at the cost of high-quality military personnel.

 

Key Takeaways

• Russian military authorities are pursuing options to increase the available pool of eligible recruits to account for continued personnel losses in Ukraine.
• Russian forces are continuing to fight for control of the Azot industrial plant and have destroyed all bridges between Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, likely to isolate the remaining Ukrainian defenders within the city from critical lines of communication.
• Russian forces continue to prepare for offensive operations southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman toward Slovyansk.
• Russian forces are continuing offensive operations to the east of Bakhmut near the T1302 highway to cut Ukrainian lines of communication to Severodonetsk-Lysychansk.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations to push Ukrainian troops away from frontlines northeast of Kharkiv City.
• Ukrainian counterattacks have forced Russian troops on the Southern Axis to take up and strengthen defensive positions.

 

 

 

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

 

I've heard rumblings of another 20-or-so howitzers from the US, along with a few truck-mounted harpoon launchers (and a bunch of ammo for both). The biggest two things Ukraine needs right now are artillery and MRLS systems. They are being given a handful at a time, but realistically they need 500-1,000 in total.

[CayceG]

lol just admit them to NATO, dorks. 

 

They're really and truly trying to "Finlandize" Ukraine. 

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 15 June 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 15 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Western officials announced additional military aid for Ukraine on June 15. US President Joe Biden pledged $1 billion worth of military aid, including coastal defense weapons, advanced rocket systems, artillery, and ammunition to support Ukrainian

 

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Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

Western officials announced additional military aid for Ukraine on June 15. US President Joe Biden pledged $1 billion worth of military aid, including coastal defense weapons, advanced rocket systems, artillery, and ammunition to support Ukrainian operations.[1] NATO members additionally announced they will additionally continue to provide Ukraine with heavy weapons and long-range systems and plan to agree on a new assistance package after consultations with Ukraine’s Defense Ministry.[2] This newest round of military aid will be invaluable to support Ukrainian operations, especially in the face of increasingly protracted and artillery-heavy fighting against Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine, though Ukraine will require further sustained support.

 

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces launched ground assaults in Severodonetsk and settlements in its vicinity but have not taken full control over the city as of June 15.
• Russian forces launched largely unsuccessful offensive operations around the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway in an effort to cut Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Lysychansk.
• Russian forces continued efforts to advance along the E40 highway to Slovyansk and southeast of Izyum.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued to fight in northeastern settlements around Kharkiv City.
• Russian forces continued to fortify fallback positions in Zaporizhia and Kherson Oblasts, while undertaking defensive measures to strengthen Russian presence in the Black Sea.
• The Kremlin and proxy republics continue to pursue ad hoc annexation policies in occupied territories.

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Bunny is the new Ghost of Kyiv, except real:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

Big new arms agreement to supply Ukraine. In addition to the usual countries that are expanding their donations, three new nations have joined:

 

Georgia

• UA made Skif (Stugna-P) ammo
• T-72s / BTRs / BMPs bridging & engineering vehicles
• 122mm (BM-21 type) MLRS ammo
• Buk & Osa SAM systems
• UA made radar systems
• SU-25 (parts)
• Mi-8 / Mi-17 (parts)

Moldova

• 122mm (BM-21) & 220mm (Uragan) type MLRS ammo?
• 152mm ammo?
•  

Ecuador

• M113 APCs
• UA made BTR-3
• 122mm (BM-21 type) MLRS ammo
• Osa SAM system
• Mi-17 (parts)

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

Bellingcat apparently believes that the US has an informant in the absolute highest echelons of Russian political power (cabinet-level or senior general, basically). Could also be that they are tapping that individual.

 

 

Maybe Medvedev just drunk-texted the plan to Biden by mistake.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 16 June 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 16 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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The leaders of Germany, France, Italy, and Romania committed to Ukrainian officials that the West would not demand any concessions from Ukraine to appease Russia and will support Ukraine to the end of the war during a visit to Kyiv on June 16. French

 

 

 

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Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

The leaders of Germany, France, Italy, and Romania committed to Ukrainian officials that the West would not demand any concessions from Ukraine to appease Russia and will support Ukraine to the end of the war during a visit to Kyiv on June 16. French President Emmanuel Macron declared that France, Germany, Italy, and Romania are “are doing everything so that Ukraine alone can decide its fate.”[1] Macron added that Ukraine “must be able to win” and pledged to provide six more self-propelled howitzers.[2] German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that Germany will continue to provide financial, humanitarian, and weapons assistance for “Ukraine’s war of independence.”[3] Macron, Scholz, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis additionally vowed to back Ukraine’s bid to become an official candidate for European Union membership.[4] Sustained Western military support to Ukraine will be essential to enable Ukrainian forces to liberate Russian-occupied territory.

 

Ukrainian defense officials explicitly requested Western heavy artillery, unmanned aerial vehicles, and multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) ahead of a protracted war. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Denys Sharapov and Land Force Command Logistics Commander Volodymyr Karpenko stated that Ukrainian forces need hundreds of artillery systems, including infantry fighting vehicles and tanks, as Ukrainian forces have suffered 30% to 50% equipment losses in active combat.[5] Sharapov and Karpenko noted that Ukrainian forces need Predator drones and loitering munitions to accurately strike Russian forces. Sharapov and Karpenko also asked for long-range precision weapons such as MLRS to defend the entire 2,500 km frontline in Ukraine.

 

Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces have already committed about 330,000 servicemen to their invasion of Ukraine without conducting partial or full-scale mobilization in Russia. Ukrainian General Staff Main Operations Deputy Chief Oleksiy Gromov stated that Russian forces grouped 150,000 servicemen into battalion tactical groups (BTGs) and other formations and involved additional 70,000 troops from air and sea elements, with the remaining personnel staffing non-combat support units.[6] Gromov noted that Russian forces committed more than 80,000 servicemen of the mobilized reserve, up to 7,000 reservists of the Russian Combat Army Reserve (BARS-2021), up to 18,000 members of the Russian National Guard (Rosguardia), and up to 8,000 troops from private military companies. Gromov did not specify if Ukrainian officials included information about forcibly mobilized servicemen in the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) in these numbers. Gromov noted that the Kremlin may still increase the number of Russian military personnel in Ukraine by executing covert or full mobilization.[7] Gromov noted that while it is unknown if the Kremlin will declare mobilization, Russian forces will still need time to execute the deployment and training of the new personnel whether or not the Kremlin announces full mobilization.

 

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces continued to launch ground assaults on Severodonetsk and settlements along the Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Lysychansk. Ukrainian military intelligence reported that Russian forces are no longer operating as concrete battalion tactical groups (BTGs), as ISW previously assessed.
• Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations northwest of Slovyansk, while Ukrainian forces reportedly resumed preparations for counteroffensives west of Izyum.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces engaged in clashes north and northeast of Kharkiv City, though no significant territory changed hands.
• Russian forces continued to fortify fallback positions in northwestern Kherson Oblast, likely in anticipation of Ukrainian counteroffensives in the region.
• Head of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Denis Pushilin continued to discuss and sign patronage agreements with Russian regional officials.

 

 

 

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

 

[CitizenVectron]

As Russia makes incremental gains in Luhansk, so too does Ukraine in Kherson:

 

 

[PaladinSolo]

Possible Harpoon strike given by Denmark.

[PaladinSolo]

 

[CitizenVectron]

Americans fighting Russians, surreal:

 

 

[CayceG]

It is truly insane that any of this footage exists. 

[SuperSpreader]

18 hours ago, CitizenVectron said:

Bellingcat apparently believes that the US has an informant in the absolute highest echelons of Russian political power (cabinet-level or senior general, basically). Could also be that they are tapping that individual.

 

 

Maybe Medvedev just drunk-texted the plan to Biden by mistake.

RIP

[Chris-]

I can't decide which would be scarier: trying to run through while you get covering fire, or being the one who has to pop around the corner and lay down covering fire.

[CitizenVectron]

2 hours ago, Chris- said:

I can't decide which would be scarier: trying to run through while you get covering fire, or being the one who has to pop around the corner and lay down covering fire.

 

Well first you lean around the corner and spam "q" to spot the enemy

[CitizenVectron]

Boris made a surprise visit to Kyiv again.

 

 

This is 10,000 soldiers being trained per month, which is a big number:

 

 

[CitizenVectron]

USMC vs TikTok Chechens = USMC/UA victory

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

ISW analysis for 17 June 2022:

 

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 17 | Institute for the Study of War

WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG

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Russian forces are continuing to deploy additional forces to support offensive operations in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area, and Ukrainian defenses remain strong. Ukrainian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk reported that Russian

 

 

 

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Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

 

Russian forces are continuing to deploy additional forces to support offensive operations in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area, and Ukrainian defenses remain strong. Ukrainian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk reported that Russian forces are transferring tanks, armored personnel carriers, engineering equipment, and vehicles from Svatove, along the Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in Luhansk Oblast, to Starobilsk, just 40 km east of Severodonetsk.[1] Social media users reported that Russian forces are likely redeploying equipment from northern Kharkiv Oblast to Donbas and published footage of Russian heavy artillery arriving by rail in Stary Osokol, Belgorod Oblast on June 17.[2] UK Chief of Defense Tony Radakin stated that Russian forces are “diminishing” in power by committing large quantities of personnel and equipment for incremental gains in one area.[3] The Russian military has concentrated the vast majority of its available combat power to capture Severodonetsk and Lysychansk at the expense of other axes of advance and is suffering heavy casualties to do so.

 

President Vladimir Putin declared that Russian forces will attack Ukrainian positions near Donetsk City but reiterated that the new tactic will require additional time during his address at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum on June 17.[4] Putin stated that Russian forces will stop what he claimed is Ukrainian shelling of Donetsk City by attacking Ukrainian fortifications from the rear. Putin may have amplified reports of shelling of civilian areas of Donetsk City, which Ukrainian officials have denied, to discourage Western officials from supplying weapons to Ukraine.[5] Putin also declared that Russian forces will fully complete the “special military operation” in Ukraine, and noted that Russian and proxy forces will intensify counter-battery combat.[6] Putin urged Russian forces to refrain from entirely destroying cities that they aim to “liberate," ignoring the destruction Russian forces have inflicted on Ukrainian cities and the artillery-heavy tactics Russian forces are currently employing in Severodonetsk.”[7]

 

Unconfirmed Ukrainian sources report that the Kremlin fired the Commander of the Russian Airborne Forces, Colonel-General Andrey Serdyukov, due to mass casualties among Russian paratroopers. Odesa Oblast Military-Civil Administration Spokesperson Serhiy Bratchuk reported that the Kremlin appointed the current chief of staff of the Central Military District, Colonel-General Mikhail Teplinsky, as Serdyukov’s replacement and named the Deputy Commander of the Russian Airborne Forces, Lieutenant General Anatoly Kontsevoi, as the First Deputy Chief of Staff of the Russian Airborne Forces.[8][9] ISW cannot independently confirm these claims or Serdyukov’s exact role in the invasion of Ukraine, but they, if true, would indicate that Serdyukov is being held responsible for the poor performance of and high casualties among Russian VDV units, particularly in early operations around Kyiv. Continued dismissals and possible internal purges of senior Russian officers will likely further degrade poor Russian command and control capabilities and the confidence of Russian officers.

 

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces continued to launch unsuccessful ground assaults against Severodonetsk and its southeastern outskirts on June 17.
• Russian forces continued efforts to sever Ukrainian lines of communication to Lysychansk, both from the north toward Slovyansk and in the south near Bakhmut.
• Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a counteroffensive northwest of Izyum intended to draw Russian forces away from offensive operations toward Slovyansk and disrupt Russian supply lines and are making minor gains.
• Ukrainian forces and aviation continued to strike Russian logistics and fortifications in occupied settlements along the Southern Axis, with localized fighting ongoing.
• Russian forces continued to regroup and transfer personnel within Zaporizhia Oblast to maintain defensive positions along the frontline.
• Russian President Putin reaffirmed his commitment to “completing” the Russian operation in Ukraine but acknowledged that unspecified new Russian tactics (which are likely simply explanations for poor Russian performance) will take time.
• Unconfirmed Ukrainian sources reported that the Kremlin fired the commander of the Russian Airborne Forces, Colonel-General Andrey Serdyukov, due to poor performance.