Россия invades Україна | UPDATE (30 May 2024) - Biden gives Ukraine permission to strike some targets inside Russia with American weapons

[Guest]

What as of today feels to be the most likely end to this war? 

[Comet]

Ukraine: Arnold Schwarzenegger's anti-war video trends on Russian social media

WWW.BBC.COM

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In the video the actor warns Russians they are being fed misinformation over the Ukraine war.

 

[Fizzzzle]

I saw something yesterday that Russia has already lost more troops in a few weeks in Ukraine than America did in 20 years in the middle East. That is wild to me. But I guess this is the closest we've come to two equally matched military powers going to war in a long time

 

*Not saying Ukraine and Russia are equally matched, there is no world in which Russia would not eventually win the war if they keep up the offensive regardless of consequences. Just saying this is the closest we've come.

[Jason]

 

[CitizenVectron]

37 minutes ago, sblfilms said:

What as of today feels to be the most likely end to this war? 

 

Honestly the most likely end is no end, that there is a stalemate for at least months (or maybe years) where Russia holds the south and some of the east, but Ukraine can't push them back and Russia can't do anything but long-range shelling.

[mclumber1]

1 minute ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Honestly the most likely end is no end, that there is a stalemate for at least months (or maybe years) where Russia holds the south and some of the east, but Ukraine can't push them back and Russia can't so anything but long-range shelling.

 

You are probably right.  But at the same time, the longer Russia wages this war, even if it's only half-assed from here on out, they'll stay isolated diplomatically and economically.  

[CitizenVectron]

6 minutes ago, mclumber1 said:

 

You are probably right.  But at the same time, the longer Russia wages this war, even if it's only half-assed from here on out, they'll stay isolated diplomatically and economically.  

 

The war will effectively be a trade of Ukrainian lives for damage to Russia's finances, and I think the western power group accepts this and embraces it.

[Air_Delivery]

42 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

Honestly the most likely end is no end, that there is a stalemate for at least months (or maybe years) where Russia holds the south and some of the east, but Ukraine can't push them back and Russia can't do anything but long-range shelling.

Once Ukraine starts getting loitering weapons they are probably going to use them to target artilery exclusively. Unless China starts seriously helping out Russia I don't see how they can maintain these losses. They have lost years worth of soldiers and equipment in less than a month. Its unsustainable even strictly by a morale standpoint.

I wouldn't be surprised if we start hearing about mass defections. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

2 hours ago, sblfilms said:

What as of today feels to be the most likely end to this war? 

 

With each passing day of stubborn Ukrainian resistance leading to stalemate, Putin's growing frustration with the military situation, and Russia's impending economic collapse, the chances of Moscow using a tactical nuclear weapon in some capacity within Ukraine to force the issue become more likey.

 

I wish I was kidding.

[Air_Delivery]

52 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

With each passing day of stubborn Ukrainian resistance leading to stalemate, Putin's growing frustration with the military situation, and Russia's impending economic collapse, the chances of Moscow using a tactical nuclear weapon in some capacity within Ukraine to force the issue become more likey.

 

I wish I was kidding.

He would use chemical weapons before that. 

[PaladinSolo]

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

19 minutes ago, Air_Delivery said:

He would use chemical weapons before that. 

 

In his current state of mind (the very existence of the entity known as "Russia" is threatened), he may view the use of chemical weapons as "insufficiently" escalatory in accordance with Russia's "escalate to de-escalate" doctrine.  They won't have the desired effect either militarily (the effect on the actual war) or politically (the effect on the West).

 

Use of a tactical nuke could have the dual effect of breaking the Ukrainian stalemate and putting the West on notice that Moscow views the use of these weapons as a viable military/political strategy to achieve its goals.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

33 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

In his current state of mind (the very existence of the entity known as "Russia" is threatened), he may view the use of chemical weapons as "insufficiently" escalatory in accordance with Russia's "escalate to de-escalate" doctrine.  They won't have the desired effect either militarily (the effect on the actual war) or politically (the effect on the West).

 

Use of a tactical nuke could have the dual effect of breaking the Ukrainian stalemate and putting the West on notice that Moscow views the use of these weapons as a viable military/political strategy to achieve its goals.

Bye, bye Belarus 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

8 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Bye, bye Belarus 

 

I do not think that NATO will follow with a similar tactical-level strike in Belarus like the Principals did in that war game.

[LazyPiranha]

Being an idiot, how would a tactical nuke be delivered, a long range missile, a air dropped bomb?

[PaladinSolo]

 

[CayceG]

13 minutes ago, LazyPiranha said:

Being an idiot, how would a tactical nuke be delivered, a long range missile, a air dropped bomb?

 

Any number of methods. 

 

Iskander ballistic missiles, with ranges of several hundred kilometers. Iskander or Kalibr cruise missiles of ranges up to 1,500 km. Or air launched cruise missiles (I think this is the most likely) of a couple thousand kilometer range delivered via their 70 year old propeller powered Tu-95s. 

[Air_Delivery]

49 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

I do not think that NATO will follow with a similar tactical-level strike in Belarus like the Principals did in that war game.

I think its possible that the US provides Ukraine with its own tactical nukes in that scenario. 

[Joe]

1 minute ago, Air_Delivery said:

I think its possible that the US provides Ukraine with its own tactical nukes in that scenario. 

Granted, I don’t know shit when it comes to foreign policy, but wouldn’t this be tantamount to declaring war on Russia?

[CayceG]

2 minutes ago, Air_Delivery said:

I think its possible that the US provides Ukraine with its own tactical nukes in that scenario. 

 

Absolutely not. In no way shape or form will this EVER happen. 

[Air_Delivery]

3 minutes ago, CayceG said:

 

Absolutely not. In no way shape or form will this EVER happen. 

 

Using nukes even in a limited fashion is a line that absoutely cannot be crossed. Sanctions against Russia would not be enough.
 

Its either launching nukes ourselves or give it to them as a tit for tat response. 

[Jason]

6 minutes ago, CayceG said:

 

Absolutely not. In no way shape or form will this EVER happen. 

 

Yeah, we would nuke Russia ourselves before we started giving nukes to other countries. 

[CayceG]

2 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

Yeah, we would nuke Russia ourselves before we started giving nukes to other countries. 

 

Boy do I have news for you!

 

Nuclear sharing - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

 

[CayceG]

4 minutes ago, Air_Delivery said:

 

Using nukes even in a limited fashion is a line that absoutely cannot be crossed. Sanctions against Russia would not be enough.
 

Its either launching nukes ourselves or give it to them as a tit for tat response. 

 

No, the third option would be to simply not use nukes. It's the assumption that the "escalate to de-escalate" strategy makes as a way to end a conflict.

[CitizenVectron]

3 minutes ago, CayceG said:

 

No, the third option would be to simply not use nukes. It's the assumption that the "escalate to de-escalate" strategy makes as a way to end a conflict.

 

So what is Russia's hope in the scenario that they drop a nuke on Kharkiv or something? That Ukraine surrenders and the west accepts that? If Russia uses a nuclear weapon aggressively then I can't imagine a scenario where even China doesn't immediately break away from their "friendship," but maybe I am being optimistic. And then, assuming there isn't a nuclear escalation, if the rest of the world increases sanctions on Russia and Putin demands they drop all sanctions or further nukes will be used, this time on other European cities, what does the world do?

 

I just can't imagine a scenario where a single nuke being used to "de-escalate" the Russian loss actually helps the Russians in the larger picture.

[Ominous]

I'm pretty sure the Giant Death Robot is the response to nuclear weapons. 

[CayceG]

3 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

So what is Russia's hope in the scenario that they drop a nuke on Kharkiv or something? That Ukraine surrenders and the west accepts that? If Russia uses a nuclear weapon aggressively then I can't imagine a scenario where even China doesn't immediately break away from their "friendship," but maybe I am being optimistic. And then, assuming there isn't a nuclear escalation, if the rest of the world increases sanctions on Russia and Putin demands they drop all sanctions or further nukes will be used, this time on other European cities, what does the world do?

 

I just can't imagine a scenario where a single nuke being used to "de-escalate" the Russian loss actually helps the Russians in the larger picture.

 

The nuke wouldn't be used to de-escalate vs. Ukraine. It would be targeted in Ukraine, but the message would be to NATO. 

 

But I think your conclusion is right. I disagree that Russia is more likely to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine to end this 'insurgency.' Mainly because even Russia knows that wouldn't work. But then again, Putin has long made many tactical decisions that have resulted in strategic blunders. So I really don't know. 

 

I don't think anyone can say what Putin will do from day to day. I just don't see how using a nuclear weapon ends this conflict. 

 

 

[silentbob]

3 minutes ago, CayceG said:

 

The nuke wouldn't be used to de-escalate vs. Ukraine. It would be targeted in Ukraine, but the message would be to NATO. 

 

But I think your conclusion is right. I disagree that Russia is more likely to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine to end this 'insurgency.' Mainly because even Russia knows that wouldn't work. But then again, Putin has long made many tactical decisions that have resulted in strategic blunders. So I really don't know. 

 

I don't think anyone can say what Putin will do from day to day. I just don't see how using a nuclear weapon ends this conflict. 

 

 

 

Now we still don’t know what exactly what is happening at the Chernobyl plant. Do you think that is an easier nuclear option for Putin to use at his disposal to ruin Ukraine/send a message 

[CitizenVectron]

Honestly I think we'll unfortunate still be talking in this thread one year from now about skirmishes between Russian occupation forces in Kherson and Donbass and Ukrainian border forces, and how the entire thing is unsettled. Though in that case I also expect for Ukraine to have the largest standing army in Europe, fully equipped to stop the Russians from advancing further. But also lacking total sovereignty and peace.

[CayceG]

14 minutes ago, silentbob said:

 

Now we still don’t know what exactly what is happening at the Chernobyl plant. Do you think that is an easier nuclear option for Putin to use at his disposal to ruin Ukraine/send a message 

 

The Russians did not capture Chernobyl to release radiation. They captured it because it was simply on the way to Kyiv from Belarus. 

[Jwheel86]

 

This is going to be a problem for a lot of countries providing aide. 

[mclumber1]

5 minutes ago, Jwheel86 said:

 

This is going to be a problem for a lot of countries providing aide. 

 

This is the result of all of these NATO countries relying on the US to provide for their defense.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Russian troops have entered Mariupol's city center and are being engaged by its defenders.

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

I'm afraid that Mariupol is all but lost, but my God, they held out heroically.

 

 

[Air_Delivery]

59 minutes ago, Jwheel86 said:

 

This is going to be a problem for a lot of countries providing aide. 

The US showing the world why we don't have universal health insurance.