~* The official thread of stonks, tendies, safe, sound and very real professional financial advice *~

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

2 hours ago, sblfilms said:

Housing is interesting because it isn’t a bubble per se, but the growth rate in prices is already decelerating. This really mucks with the business models of these vulture firms is to be to go really quick k to close with above market cash offers on the notion that prices would continue to rise at the dramatic rates we’ve seen the last two years.

 

Whooops

Now we should pull a finishing move and deregulate the barriers to dense home construction in residential areas

[Jason]

4 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

Now we should pull a finishing move and deregulate the barriers to dense home construction in residential areas

 

But it's socialism and a taking of my private property to not let me dictate what my neighbor builds on his own property. Also the city council should be summarily executed for making me get a permit to cut down a tree on my own property.

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

11 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

But it's socialism and a taking of my private property to not let me dictate what my neighbor builds on his own property. Also the city council should be summarily executed for making me get a permit to cut down a tree on my own property.

I do like how you add the subtle “taking” phrase because I can legitimately see scotus using that reasoning to undo good zoning reform under the guise of the takings clause. 

[Jason]

14 minutes ago, b_m_b_m_b_m said:

I do like how you add the subtle “taking” phrase because I can legitimately see scotus using that reasoning to undo good zoning reform under the guise of the takings clause. 

 

Ugh. 

 

There was a case in NYC in the last few years where someone tried to argue it from the opposite direction with the city (they ignored the property owner sadly). Someone was going to replace their building with a bigger multi unit building, and a downzoning in the West Village got extended out in a super thin line specifically to block them from doing it. Their argument was that it was a taking to downzone the property after they'd already bought it and done all the legwork to replace the building. 

[Anathema-]

I feel very fortunate to have moved when I did.

[Guest]

The monthly payment on the property I bought for my MIL back in the beginning of the year would be a non trivial amount higher today than back in January. And I suspect we are in for more interest rate pain.

 

O assume this really sucks for folks like @Ominousas it pretty well mercs the refi industry for the time being. Feels like everybody I know refinanced into the 2s and 3s the last couple of years.

[Jason]

 

[Ominous]

13 hours ago, sblfilms said:

The monthly payment on the property I bought for my MIL back in the beginning of the year would be a non trivial amount higher today than back in January. And I suspect we are in for more interest rate pain.

 

O assume this really sucks for folks like @Ominousas it pretty well mercs the refi industry for the time being. Feels like everybody I know refinanced into the 2s and 3s the last couple of years.

 

Yea, we opened up voluntary separation packages that included pay, benefits, and a payout of PTO and I think a good 10% of our workforce took one, 

I'm not on the sales side, I can only imagine how brutal that is, but I work on fixing broken shit once it's in the door and our volume is down considerably. 

 

Our purchase volume is the highest relative to refi it's ever been, so at least people are still buying and will be ready to refi once rates are cut to recover from the next recession. 

 

I see people taking cash out and taking their 2.5, 2.99, 3.5 rate up to 5.5 or higher and it blows my mind. 

[SuperSpreader]

16 hours ago, sblfilms said:

Housing is interesting because it isn’t a bubble per se, but the growth rate in prices is already decelerating. This really mucks with the business models of these vulture firms is to be to go really quick k to close with above market cash offers on the notion that prices would continue to rise at the dramatic rates we’ve seen the last two years.

 

Whooops

 

I'm not sure Dallas will see a significant slowdown. There's hardly any land in Dallas proper, and hardly anyone is selling. Everyone is fighting it out in the burbs.

 

(Dallas reddit is hilarious full of people too afraid to enter Dallas but complaining that Dallas lacks city like atmosphere)

[SuperSpreader]

16 hours ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

Looks like the mortgage market has already priced-in a 75bps increase from the Fed tomorrow.
 

30-year mortgage rate surges to 6.28%, up from 5.5% just a week ago

WWW.CNBC.COM

---

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage hit 6.28% Tuesday, according to Mortgage News Daily.

 

 

My 2.875 looking sexy rn

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

This made me chuckle:

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

A couple of guys gettin' a little carried away:

 

 

 

Note: a Federal Funds Rate of 3% would be 200bps increase.

 

[Comet]

30 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

This made me chuckle:

 

 

I definitely picked a good few years to start leaning heavily towards minimalism. There were talks in my family to start saving up to upgrade home size in the coming years. Glad I nipped that in the bud. 

[SuperSpreader]

32 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

This made me chuckle:

 

 

 

haha I mean all knew these rates weren't gonna be around forever. 

[SuperSpreader]

5 minutes ago, Comet said:

I definitely picked a good few years to start leaning heavily towards minimalism. There were talks in my family to start saving up to upgrade home size in the coming years. Glad I nipped that in the bud. 

 

I'm probably gonna work for ~5yr and then slow down in Mexico. Still working but with a more 🤷‍♂️ attitude. I don't think my Dallas area is gonna go down in value. 

[CitizenVectron]

13 minutes ago, Comet said:

I definitely picked a good few years to start leaning heavily towards minimalism. There were talks in my family to start saving up to upgrade home size in the coming years. Glad I nipped that in the bud. 

 

My wife and I have a combined household salary of around $150,000, and I think we qualified for a home in the $650,000 range at 1.59%. We bought a home for $370,000, which can be paid for with just one salary. Our mortgage payments are about $1,400/mo total, and if interest are up to 5% when we renew in 2026 then we'd see a bump to around $1,900/mo, still well within our comfortable range. We decided ahead of time we'd get something that fit just the two of us in a great neighbourhood, not what others thought we should get, and to live well within our means. It has let us put extra money into the home in terms of updates, as well as funnel a huge amount into retirement savings. Unfortunately, I know people that did the opposite and bought right at their stress-test limit. They were living month-to-month when they bought...I imagine they are piling on debt now.

[Comet]

10 minutes ago, CitizenVectron said:

 

My wife and I have a combined household salary of around $150,000, and I think we qualified for a home in the $650,000 range at 1.59%. We bought a home for $370,000, which can be paid for with just one salary. Our mortgage payments are about $1,400/mo total, and if interest are up to 5% when we renew in 2026 then we'd see a bump to around $1,900/mo, still well within our comfortable range. We decided ahead of time we'd get something that fit just the two of us in a great neighbourhood, not what others thought we should get, and to live well within our means. It has let us put extra money into the home in terms of updates, as well as funnel a huge amount into retirement savings. Unfortunately, I know people that did the opposite and bought right at their stress-test limit. They were living month-to-month when they bought...I imagine they are piling on debt now.

That's exactly the thing to fear as incomes increase. We bought a very modest home in 2015 for 200k, and we could afford it then with what felt like a slight financial stretch even though it was about a $1,500 monthly payment. It's now worth close to 400k (which is so goddamn stupid really...). Back then I was making 75k a year and am now at a base salary of 165k. The urge to qualify for a big home has always been there but minimizing expenses as your income increases is a type of real-world min-maxing I never thought I'd love to do so much. One more year of daycare payments and then we get back $1100 a month. So many friends of mine have had lifestyle creep as their incomes have gone up and we're looking to minimize so my wife can just stop working or choose to do something more meaningful with her time rather than working for debt/mortgages. The other big benefit to minimalism is that I have such few desire to actually spend money on any expense at all related to "keeping up with the Joneses". It has also helped me take a more laid back approach to my career and put a pause on my voracious need to move up a meaningless ladder. 

 

The only real thing concern that is on my mind is a move out of Texas, be that to a better state or even out of the country. That will definitely hit income levels I'm at and will have to come with more expensive living expenses. I might have to just stomach the suck until the housing market (domestically and/or internationally) finally corrects appropriately. 

[Guest]

Very displeased that we lost the HaHa Yes Sicko

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Just now, sblfilms said:

Very displeased that we lost the HaHa Yes Sicko

 

Fine - I'll reactivate it.

[stepee]

5 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

Fine - I'll reactivate it.

 

cant have too many sickos

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

1 hour ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

This made me chuckle:

 

 

The odds that the fed has to or will drop to near zero rates in the next decade or so again are far too high to make this joke in confidence!

[CitizenVectron]

20 minutes ago, Comet said:

That's exactly the thing to fear as incomes increase. We bought a very modest home in 2015 for 200k, and we could afford it then with what felt like a slight financial stretch even though it was about a $1,500 monthly payment. It's now worth close to 400k (which is so goddamn stupid really...). Back then I was making 75k a year and am now at a base salary of 165k. The urge to qualify for a big home has always been there but minimizing expenses as your income increases is a type of real-world min-maxing I never thought I'd love to do so much. One more year of daycare payments and then we get back $1100 a month. So many friends of mine have had lifestyle creep as their incomes have gone up and we're looking to minimize so my wife can just stop working or choose to do something more meaningful with her time rather than working for debt/mortgages. The other big benefit to minimalism is that I have such few desire to actually spend money on any expense at all related to "keeping up with the Joneses". It has also helped me take a more laid back approach to my career and put a pause on my voracious need to move up a meaningless ladder. 

 

The only real thing concern that is on my mind is a move out of Texas, be that to a better state or even out of the country. That will definitely hit income levels I'm at and will have to come with more expensive living expenses. I might have to just stomach the suck until the housing market (domestically and/or internationally) finally corrects appropriately. 

 

For sure, preventing lifestyle creep is a real issue for many people. I do think that you can spend more within reason, especially on experiences, but your spending should never keep pace with your income increases (unless you are so ridiculously wealthy that it doesn't matter). For me, I enjoy spending money on a few hobbies (PC Gaming, photography, etc), but never out of control. I enjoy my end-of-month allocation where I get to move money into retirement funds, HISAs, etc.

[rc0101]

2 hours ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

A couple of guys gettin' a little carried away:

 

 

 

Note: a Federal Funds Rate of 3% would be 200bps increase.

 

Fed Funds at 3% just like that would cause chaos. 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

10 minutes ago, rc0101 said:

Fed Funds at 3% just like that would cause chaos. 

 

[Guest]

8 minutes ago, Commissar SFLUFAN said:

 

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

18 minutes ago, rc0101 said:

Fed Funds at 3% just like that would cause chaos. 

 

We're Here to Kill Chaos / Chaosposting

KNOWYOURMEME.COM

---

We're Here to Kill Chaos is a line of dialogue spoken by Jack, the main character of Square Enix's upcoming game Stranger of Paradise: Final Fantasy Origin. Following the premiere of the trailer at E3 2021, the character became mocked for his generic design and his frequent use of the word "Chaos." The memes mocking the character's obsession with Chaos are known as Chaosposting.

 

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

The crypto rout continues with Bitcoin within sight of sliding below $20K.

 

I imagine that a not-insignificant contributor to the crypto bloodbath involves margin calls kicking in which results in more selling to cover them.

[chakoo]

A few crypto related companies are already starting to layoff a portion of their staff. A few days ago it was coinbase and today it's wealthsimple. Expect more over the coming weeks IMO.

[Anathema-]

Shaka, their apes were slurp juiced.

[CitizenVectron]

25 minutes ago, chakoo said:

A few crypto related companies are already starting to layoff a portion of their staff. A few days ago it was coinbase and today it's wealthsimple. Expect more over the coming weeks IMO.

 

I have my TFSA holdings with Wealthsimple...but nothing to do with crypto in there, lol.

[GeneticBlueprint]

Fed announces sharp interest rate hike to fight inflation - The Washington Post

WWW.WASHINGTONPOST.COM

---

The Fed is taking strong tactics to tackle inflation, after prices soared even higher in May.

 

Itshappening.gif

[rc0101]

I picked a good time for a 2 week vacation!

[Commissar SFLUFAN]

Quote

 

Additionally, members indicated a much stronger path of rate increases ahead to arrest inflation moving at its fastest pace going back to December 1981, according to one commonly cited measure.

 

According to the “dot plot” of individual members’ expectations, the Fed’s benchmark rate will end the year at 3.4%, an upward revision of 1.5 percentage points from the March estimate.

 

The committee then sees the rate rising to 3.8% in 2023, a full percentage point ramp higher.

 

Officials also significantly cut their outlook for 2022 economic growth, now anticipating just a 1.7% gain in GDP, down from 2.8% from March.

 

 

[Uaarkson]

If we could legalize urban housing you wouldn’t even notice the drop in GDP from inflation 

[b_m_b_m_b_m]

8 minutes ago, Uaarkson said:

If we could legalize urban housing you wouldn’t even notice the drop in GDP from inflation 

Without action at the federal, state, and local level all the fed will ever be able to do is react  and that’s not good! They’re pushing on a balloon (not a bubble!) of inflation in large part based on home prices and continue to push every time the air moves to another place. The only way out is for a bigger balloon!